Analysis The Rebuilds of Geelong and Richmond and their Future Prospects

[Mr Meow]

Yes, but in 2022 all of those 10 x 30+ players were there … and unsurprisingly 2-years younger. For that reason I think it’s optimistic to think you’ll get a good injury run from enough of the golden oldies to contend in a meaningful way. If you do get 20+ games out of 8-9 of them then I think you can be a flag contender.

Just as if Richmond can get 20+ out of Nank, Lynch, Prestia and Martin we will be right in the mix of finals then who knows… I just don’t think it will happen.


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It's not always as simple as that though. Selwood, Smith, Tuohy and Bews either retired or not best 22. Bruhn, O.Henry, Bowes and maybe Dempsey/Mannagh instead. Conway and Neale in a better position to cover for Stanley and Hawkins.

Not to mention that the club had a lot of collision or freak injuries including quite a few to sub 30 year olds in 2023. Stengle, De Koning, both Henry's, Clark, Bowes had issues early on. Stanley had his eye hanging off it's socket. The Rohan/Cameron car crash vs Melbourne. Even our VFL players first in line for a shot were having a bad run.

There's not really a lot to suggest back to back worst Geelong injury lists this century. I'll be sure to acknowledge you if it does happen though.

 

[Noidnadroj]

Meteoric Rise

Mooney All Australian and top 10 BnF in 2007

Mooney 6th BnF 2008

Mooney 70 goals/assists 2009 (just 9 less than Tom Lynch in 2019, 1 more than Lynch in 2022)

Not bad for a passenger close to getting dropped.

Mooney is a hard one to judge. I think he was a good player who played a valuable role as the primary KPF. But he played this role from 2007-2010. A 4-year period where Geelong went 84-15 and had an average winning margin of about 7-8 goals. They completely obliterated every second opponent.

He played 94 games and kicked 201 goals in this 4-year period. He also had high goal assist tallies. Now i don’t think it’s disrespectful to say any player around 195cm who is erect and breathing would’ve kicked a decent amount of goals as the primary key forward target in that era of dominance. eg James Podsiadly came in as a 28yo ex-VFL player and kicked 49 then 52 goals in 2010 and 2011. When Cats regressed a bit in 2012-13 he went 35/33 goals, then kicked 26 in his one year at Adelaide.

So of course Richmond would be thrilled if Kosi kicks 201 goals in his first 94 games for the club. If we go 84-15 from 2024-27 and have a percentage hovering around 150% I’d expect he would. And I’d be disappointed with much less if he’s the primary target.

But assuming we go somewhere around 50/50 and a percentage of 100% over the next 4-years, then a return of somewhere around 120 goals in 80 games for Kosi would be the equivalent, particularly if he’s second fiddle to Lynch for large portions of that.

So I’m expecting and thinking around the 30-goals from Kosi from a 20-game season if we are a middling team. Potentially a few goals less if we are bottom-4, and a few more if top-8. So let’s call it 25-35 goals from 20-games. Which to me is roughly the equivalent of Mooney kicking 45-55 in an utterly dominant Cats team.



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[Mr Meow]

Mooney is a hard one to judge. I think he was a good player who played a valuable role as the primary KPF. But he played this role from 2007-2010. A 4-year period where Geelong went 84-15 and had an average winning margin of about 7-8 goals. They completely obliterated every second opponent.

He played 94 games and kicked 201 goals in this 4-year period. He also had high goal assist tallies. Now i don’t think it’s disrespectful to say any player around 195cm who is erect and breathing would’ve kicked a decent amount of goals as the primary key forward target in that era of dominance. eg James Podsiadly came in as a 28yo ex-VFL player and kicked 49 then 52 goals in 2010 and 2011. When Cats regressed a bit in 2012-13 he went 35/33 goals, then kicked 26 in his one year at Adelaide.

So of course Richmond would be thrilled if Kosi kicks 201 goals in his first 94 games for the club. If we go 84-15 from 2024-27 and have a percentage hovering around 150% I’d expect he would. And I’d be disappointed with much less if he’s the primary target.

But assuming we go somewhere around 50/50 and a percentage of 100% over the next 4-years, then a return of somewhere around 120 goals in 80 games for Kosi would be the equivalent, particularly if he’s second fiddle to Lynch for large portions of that.

So I’m expecting and thinking around the 30-goals from Kosi from a 20-game season if we are a middling team. Potentially a few goals less if we are bottom-4, and a few more if top-8. So let’s call it 25-35 goals from 20-games. Which to me is roughly the equivalent of Mooney kicking 45-55 in an utterly dominant Cats team.



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You just mentioned that goal assists were an important strength of Mooney's game but then dismissed it in regards to what Kozzy would aim for. Total goal contributions (goals plus assists) is much fairer and he'd still want to tick over 12-14 disposals a game while doing so. So adjust for that and come back to me.

If you start scaling down every player because they are in the best or highest scoring team it's a slippery road. It is essentially just a means to mark down any attacking player who played in a prolific side. The type of equivalency you are suggesting where 60 Mooney goals in that side = 30 Kozzy goals in this Richmond side just isn't how it works. Or else we need to start commissioning a statue for what Allen achieved at West Coast this year - surely we would mark his goal tally up to 110?

In your example, you tried to make the Podsiadly connection between different seasons but anyone watching him observed that he was legitimately just much better in 2010-2011 and a genuinely strong forward (one of the real finds..it actually caused a pretty decent buzz, the story wasn't that a generic plodder could fill his boots in a brilliant Cats side) those seasons. So for starters there's a false connection you've tried to make. To finish off that point Hawkins kicked WAY more goals in 2012 compared to 2011, in a much worse performing side. Riewoldt had some huge goal tallies for weak Richmond sides and a couple that weren't massive when they were better. And so on.

Lastly, the marking up of any Richmond player contributions in "down" seasons by default implies that you would mark down Richmond player contributions in the 3 dominant flag winning seasons. Time and time again you said this simply wasn't how it worked...until Richmond were poor and then individuals could be scaled up, while other non-Richmond sides historically could have individuals marked down (cause they were just in a strong side).

The mental gymnastics to flip flop like this is...impressive. Maybe you're aware of it, maybe you're not.

 

[Ricky Vaughn]

You mean to say Mooney was a better key forward in finals than Tom Hawkins?

Riewoldt bar Richmond's 1 walkover got 34 goals + assists in 15 finals at 2.3 average. The average score in these matches was around 160 points.

Mooney bar Geelong's 2 walkover finals in 2007 got 27 goals + assists in 17 matches at 1.6 average. The average score in these matches was around 184 points. But let's say Mooney didn't play key forward in his 04-05 finals he got 25 goals + assists in 11 games bar the 2 massive routs at just under 2.3 per game. But there was about 15% more scoring in those matches than Riewoldt's finals. So the weighted comparison to make an accurate comparison would be more like Mooney 2.3 and Riewoldt 2.67. Hawkins would I presume be somewhere near Riewoldt on the same basis.

You forgot to take out Riewoldt’s 4 against Port, and his 5 against Collingwood in 18 can go, as that game was over at 1/4 time.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Lol.

Mooney was a permanent starter at a team that finished 9th. He played as a forward sometimes swinging into defence or ruck. He kicked 1.5 goals a game, the second most for the team. This was a team that actually had decent key position stocks (Scarlett broke out that year, Ben Graham was at his best, Kent Kingsley finished top 5 in the Coleman and King had been AA in 2000 and was finally fit) so he wasn't gifted games.

Hawthorn have 1 good key position player (Lewis) who missed 1/3 the season. Their next best key position player would be Sam Frost or James Blanck. Yet Koschitzke still played more VFL than AFL.

We don't "have no idea" who he was left out. He played like s**t. The fair assessment right now is that he looks like an absolute spud.

Oh no, Richmond have sold the farm for a player FS thinks is a spud, pick 49, lol.

Markov, Frampton just played in Collingwood's flag team neither could get a game at clubs outside the 8. It means nothing.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

You forgot to take out Riewoldt’s 4 against Port, and his 5 against Collingwood in 18 can go, as that game was over at 1/4 time.

I didn't take those performances out. But not because I forgot to.

 

[Mr Meow]

Let's say form and injury issues hit a few who you'd most expect it to (based on 2023) from the veterans.

Geelong's 2024 side by the end of season could quite easily be:

FB: J.Henry, De Koning, Z.Guthrie
HB: Stewart, Kolodjashnij, Duncan

C: Holmes, Dangerfield, Blicavs
FOL: Conway, Bruhn, C.Guthrie

HF: Miers, Cameron, Close
FF: O.Henry, Hawkins, Stengle

IC: Bowes, Atkins, O'Connor, Dempsey
Sub: Mannagh

30+: 7
25-29: 10
18-24: 6

That's a mature side, but it has some balance.

Depth: Stanley, Rohan, Tuohy, Bews, Neale, Knevitt, Clark, Mullin

 

[rye]

Mcluggage didn’t either … does that mean he isn’t worth a first round pick?

i dont see how this is relevant at all but for reference, 2023 is the first time since 2018 that mccluggage has not made the aa squad. taranto has never made an all-australian squad.

 

[nut]

i dont see how this is relevant at all but for reference, 2023 is the first time since 2018 that mccluggage has not made the aa squad. taranto has never made an all-australian squad.

I’m no fan of the AA squad.
What would McCluggage be worth ? A second rounder because he wasn’t in the AA squad?

 

[Taper]

Doesn't mean it's going to happen forever.

It was our nature in 2015 as well. I'm not totally convinced we were contending for the flag every year anyway judging by the excuses that were offered every single season except for last year.

Like this year, we had a shocking run with injuries in 2015.
I won't be surprised when we return to top 4 next year with a relatively clean bill of health and a far easier fixture.
Apart from Selwood and Smith all 2022 premiership players remain on our list.

 

[Havoc]

I can't believe people are seriously trying to compare Kozi to Mooney in a favorable manner. Kozi is lucky to still be on a list!

Off season is a crazy time. The reputation and performance of players goes through the roof.

Onto the subject matter of this thread, Richmond have cooked their list by trading out of two drafts pretty much to get Hopper and Taranto. They also needed one so they could bring youth through. And yes I get the much fabled 3 picks inside the top 30 a few years ago but it's not enough. You need elite end of the talent pool when your list is about to fall off the edge.

I'd back Geelong to rebuild way better than Richmond. Cooked.

New coach should help.. Hardwick was cooked/checked out, and McQualter wasn't much chop.

 

[Elmer_Hauser]

New coach should help.. Hardwick was cooked/checked out, and McQualter wasn't much chop.

A new coach, given all your retirements and fresh faces coming through will probably mean a very rocky start for Richmond in 2024, esp if Tom Lynch doesn't come back any time soon..

Geelong and their stability (whatever that means long term) will ensure The Cats will finish several places higher than The Tigers in 2024.

Also McQualter did a reasonable job ad caretaker all things considered imo.

It's Dimma who left your playing list in the lurch, not MCQ.

 

[Gavin Excell]

In time, I wonder how Tigers fans will view Dimma

 

[Doc1763]

In time, I wonder how Tigers fans will view Dimma

Probably similar to how we view Mick "I cant coach against my boys" Malthouse.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

In time, I wonder how Tigers fans will view Dimma

My view of his contribution to Richmond will never change. Absolutely brilliant coach, calm head in a crisis, very sound decision maker and had the players singing from the same hymn sheet just about from day 1. Whether his performance waned slightly at the end is in my opinion not overly important.

He is a very under-rated coach. Possibly because he mangles the language just about every time he speaks. But taking club loyalties aside and even forgetting speeches to players etc. If you watch the video of that 2020 Grand Final where there is access to the coaches, Hardwick's thought processes seem outstanding, even in the face of suggestions from his own assistants to make more radical moves etc. He just calmly stuck to his guns and summed up the issues and what he thought Richmond needed to do to get back into the game when they were foundering in the first half.

He has traits most people just don't have and that is why he was a tremendously successful coach. His success is outrageous really when you think about it.

 

[Havoc]

A new coach, given all your retirements and fresh faces coming through will probably mean a very rocky start for Richmond in 2024, esp if Tom Lynch doesn't come back any time soon..

Geelong and their stability (whatever that means long term) will ensure The Cats will finish several places higher than The Tigers in 2024.

Also McQualter did a reasonable job ad caretaker all things considered imo.

It's Dimma who left your playing list in the lurch, not MCQ.

Yze will be a breath of fresh air.. similar to McRae at Collingwood. We're a big club and quite well run these days, so I can't see us being down for long!

 

[Elmer_Hauser]

Yze will be a breath of fresh air.. similar to McRae at Collingwood. We're a big club and quite well run these days, so I can't see us being down for long!

Maybe, but Fly took over at a club that arguably was still in their prime.

On a admittedly small sample size over the last 18 months, I am concerned about the quality and ability of your young players..

 

[Morro]

Maybe, but Fly took over at a club that arguably was still in their prime.

On a admittedly small sample size over the last 18 months, I am concerned about the quality and ability of your young players..

They were middle of the row when he took over and incredibly messy off field.

Our young players are the great unknown, that part we agree on, however as someone well educated on the list, I am quietly confident we have a handful of kids that will suprise.

You cant underestimate the negative impact of Dimma towards the end. Not that my opinion of him will change ever.

 

[RUNVS]

I think both Geelong and Richmond have largely the same problem and that is aging KPF's. Riewoldt is gone and Lynch feels like he is on his last legs for Richmond and Hawkins will likely be gone soon and Cameron only has a few years left. For both clubs they have gone from their KPF stocks being a real strength to a real weakness in only a couple of years.

 

[Elmer_Hauser]

They were middle of the row when he took over and incredibly messy off field.

Our young players are the great unknown, that part we agree on, however as someone well educated on the list, I am quietly confident we have a handful of kids that will suprise.

You cant underestimate the negative impact of Dimma towards the end. Not that my opinion of him will change ever.

Some eerie parallels between Dimma and how Clarko's time at Hawthorn.

Both pushed the envelope by topping up/trading for one last flag push at the expense of building for the future.

It's also hard to deny that Dimma and his personal life did cause some friction and disharmony amongst the Tigers playing group.

Good news is Richmond have got a ripper of a bloke and coach in Yze, it may take a while, but he will get the Tigers up and and about again.

You also have a lot of cap space and a juicy war chest of draft capital to go for a big name or two in this year's draft and trade period.

 

[Morro]

Some eerie parallels between Dimma and how Clarko's time at Hawthorn.

Both pushed the envelope by topping up/trading for one last flag push at the expense of building for the future.

It's also hard to deny that Dimma and his personal life did cause some friction and disharmony amongst the Tigers playing group.

Good news is Richmond have got a ripper of a bloke and coach in Yze, it may take a while, but he will get the Tigers up and and about again.

You also have a lot of cap space and a juicy war chest of draft capital to go for a big name or two in this year's draft and trade period.

Yeah I have accepted this moreso of late, reading Cotchs book, it was a clear issue that fractured the club.

Yze is a breath of fresh air that we clearly need. I dont think things are that bad if we stay fit, its our depth in KPP's that will hurt us the most.

 

[Elmer_Hauser]

Yeah I have accepted this moreso of late, reading Cotchs book, it was a clear issue that fractured the club.

Yze is a breath of fresh air that we clearly need. I dont think things are that bad if we stay fit, its our depth in KPP's that will hurt us the most.

Your backline is also a concern to me, Grimes falling over a cliff quickly and more alarming than anyone expected really hurt the Tigers last year.

Hopefully Gibcus (whom I think is a terrific talent) is over his injury concerns and healthy going into 2024.

Would like to see Sonsie get regular games for Richmond too.

I still firmly believe 2024 will be a 'development' year for Richmond, but I have been wrong before.

 

[Morro]

Your backline is also a concern to me, Grimes falling over a cliff quickly and more alarming than anyone expected really hurt the Tigers last year.

Hopefully Gibcus (whom I think is a terrific talent) is over his injury concerns and healthy going into 2024.

Would like to see Sonsie get regular games for Richmond too.

I still firmly believe 2024 will be a 'development' year for Richmond, but I have been wrong before.

Funnily enough if you ask us Tigs supporters, they would say the backline is the least of our worries. They mostlty look shaky at times due tot he midfield and to a lesser extent HF lines lack of pressure

Balta has proven to be a very good KPD
Young - despite being new to football showed 1v1 he's actually one of the best stoppers of the 23 season, he should get better
Grimes, agree, it was sad, could bounce back but if not Gibcus should slot in, the other to watch is Bauer.
Rioli, Short, Vlas all elite
Brown is the youngster that is very exciting for us, great size, arguably best kick in the club and should be ready to go

Depth as you mention the obvious issue

Sonsie and Dow will play plenty of football and completely change our midfield dynamic.

 

[Elmer_Hauser]

Funnily enough if you ask us Tigs supporters, they would say the backline is the least of our worries. They mostlty look shaky at times due tot he midfield and to a lesser extent HF lines lack of pressure

Balta has proven to be a very good KPD
Young - despite being new to football showed 1v1 he's actually one of the best stoppers of the 23 season, he should get better
Grimes, agree, it was sad, could bounce back but if not Gibcus should slot in, the other to watch is Bauer.
Rioli, Short, Vlas all elite
Brown is the youngster that is very exciting for us, great size, arguably best kick in the club and should be ready to go

Depth as you mention the obvious issue

Sonsie and Dow will play plenty of football and completely change our midfield dynamic.

Have you got any decent young(ish) ruck stocks coming through following the trade of Soldo ? (I know Balta can pinch hit there but as you say better off down back)

Nankervis has been a true trencherman for your club but seems prone to injury these days

 

[Dr Tigris]

I think both Geelong and Richmond have largely the same problem and that is aging KPF's. Riewoldt is gone and Lynch feels like he is on his last legs for Richmond and Hawkins will likely be gone soon and Cameron only has a few years left. For both clubs they have gone from their KPF stocks being a real strength to a real weakness in only a couple of years.

To some extent i agree.

The Tigers are hoping Lynch ends up good. cause without him our forward line was pathetic in 2023. we have young KPFs, but nothing too exciting. The Cats are exactly where you have said. They could easily have their forward line be like the 2023 Tiges - or not. But the future doesn't look great. --> Which is to say both teams had forward lines built around 2 KPFs of elite talent who have gotten older. Not many teams have 2 A grade KPFs. Replacing that is difficult.

Both clubs have genuine all time stars retiring/end of career. In both cases the midfield was turned from premiership quality to meh at times. Both have younger talent coming through. The Tigers getting Taranto and Hopper means that on paper they have a top end midfield. Only on paper so far.

The Tigers kept drafting kids and have a fair bit of young talent - that Dimma and McQ didn't play much. The Cats managed to go from almost no young talent to a good bit very quickly - great trading and drafting.

To me the biggest issue is the midfields. Both had all time stars. Those guys are gone or waning. Add to that the KPF stocks as you said and it's a slippery slope.