Analysis The Rebuilds of Geelong and Richmond and their Future Prospects

[Mr Meow]

Don't get me wrong, I respect Geelong as a side a lot but given your list profile I think the next few years for Geelong are going to be a transition period. You guys should not do a North Melbourne and cull your older players, but rather keep them for as long as possible and help protect the younger players, help them develop so they are ready to take over in a few years.

That's what we're doing. Clark and Dempsey will be integrated this season, much like Bruhn and O.Henry were in 2023, then Holmes and SDK in 2022. It'll be Neale, Conway and maybe Knevitt and Mullin in 2025.

At the same time we're introducing some slightly more experienced guys to help the load. So it was Stengle, then Bowes, now Mannagh. A few in, a few out each season.

When everyone is on the park it remains a competitive unit.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

I genuinely don't understand how some football experts think Geelong will be pushing for top 4 this year. It is one of the most baffling calls I have seen in a while. I don't even think Geelong fans think they will be in premiership contention this year.

This year could be ugly for Geelong (could go either way I think). Next year's almost certain to be though. I'd say we'll lose at least six of our over 30 brigade next offseason.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Prestia, Broad and Grimes look cooked. Surely there's a kid you can play instead of McIntosh? It's time to move past Pickett too.

The names you suggested being back will help, but 3 of them are near the end so it just highlights what the future is going to look like. There was little sympathy when Geelong were missing 6-8 players routinely last season (all age ranges).

Anyway, full strength I'd go:

FB: Young Gibcus Vlastuin
HB: Short Balta Rioli
C: Ross Taranto Banks
HF: Bolton Ryan Graham
FF: Campbell Lynch Baker
FOL: Nankervis Hopper Martin
IC: MRJ Dow Kozzy Sonsie

Get a top 3 draft pick a couple of years in a row, make a smart FA acquisition or two and who knows.

Pretty sure Broad will be fine for this year at least. Prestia was missing early but started to work up and down the ground a lot better as the match wore on I thought. He won't be getting better from this point though. Grimes struggled last year, I didn't watch him closely today but if he carried on from last year there will be a point where the likes of Miller, Brown, Trezise are replacing him this year.

Your team listed here is close to the mark I think, but not sure the likes of Campbell will play whole seasons, and there are quite a few of these type of players on our list at a similar level, Green, Coulthard for eg.

Pretty confident Balta won't play back, even if say Young was injured, Miller will come in. In future years, who knows.

The biggest point of contention is the wingers. The club likes McIntosh and Pickett at this stage. Ross and Banks are the future. At some point there will be a transition there.

 

[Cleansweep17]

Prestia, Broad and Grimes look cooked. Surely there's a kid you can play instead of McIntosh? It's time to move past Pickett too.

The names you suggested being back will help, but 3 of them are near the end so it just highlights what the future is going to look like. There was little sympathy when Geelong were missing 6-8 players routinely last season (all age ranges).

Anyway, full strength I'd go:

FB: Young Gibcus Vlastuin
HB: Short Balta Rioli
C: Ross Taranto Banks
HF: Bolton Ryan Graham
FF: Campbell Lynch Baker
FOL: Nankervis Hopper Martin
IC: MRJ Trezise Kozzy Sonsie

Get a top 3 draft pick a couple of years in a row, make a smart FA acquisition or two and who knows.

The clubs best players paper over the cracks.

And we are running out of paper, so our young players look a lot worse.

Richmond are about 2 years ahead of Geelong in the rebuild stage. You’ll see what I mean soon enough when Hawkins Cameron and Co go. Thought your 2023 season would bring it to your attention, you have so far followed our ladder pattern after 2020 and I don’t think you’ll finish 7th in 2024 like we did in 2022.

 

[RUNVS]

This year could be ugly for Geelong (could go either way I think). Next year's almost certain to be though. I'd say we'll lose at least six of our over 30 brigade next offseason.

It all depends on injuries really. With everyone is fit the Geelong team still looks very good, but the problem is with so many players over 30 the chances of soft tissue injuries are much higher.

 

[PhatBoy]

Also I think history has shown tanking does not work, not in the long run. Instilling a winning culture is so much more important than some slightly better draft picks.

I think our two clubs more than any others (perhaps west coast and Collingwood) highlight this. Maybe hawthorn to a degree as well who even now I don’t think you could accuse of just rolling over and dying

 

[geelong_crazy26]

Success is winning flags. 4 in 16 isn’t that impressive.

4 flags in 16 years isnt impressive?? This is up there with your dumbest posts

 

[RUNVS]

I think our two clubs more than any others (perhaps west coast and Collingwood) highlight this. Maybe hawthorn to a degree as well who even now I don’t think you could accuse of just rolling over and dying

Yep. As much as I don't want to praise them look at how quickly Hawthorn are beginning to bounce back, even though they have not had that many high end draft picks. They are doing so because they have a winning culture. Even when they are down they are not tanking.

 

[Cleansweep17]

I think our two clubs more than any others (perhaps west coast and Collingwood) highlight this. Maybe hawthorn to a degree as well who even now I don’t think you could accuse of just rolling over and dying

I don’t think you are looking at the other side.

During our worst drought our nickname was dubbed 9thmond.

This is self evident that finishing middle of the pack for endless seasons are the drought makers because you don’t contend or get good draft picks.

GWS, GC, now Carlton after years of being shit are bobbing up now because of their high draft picks entering their prime.

So careful what you wish for, bottoming out is actually your friend most of the time unless something goes seriously wrong.

 

[Mr Meow]

The clubs best players paper over the cracks.

And we are running out of paper, so our young players look a lot worse.

Richmond are about 2 years ahead of Geelong in the rebuild stage. You’ll see what I mean soon enough when Hawkins Cameron and Co go. Thought your 2023 season would bring it to your attention, you have so far followed our ladder pattern after 2020 and I don’t think you’ll finish 7th in 2024 like we did in 2022.

I don't really get how you can be 2 years further behind in a rebuild when you have better stocks of 23 and unders.

2023 the squad would've made finals with an actual preseason and a non-disastrous injury run.

There's no doubt this team is about to lose some quality veterans. They're not all the same age though. Cameron isn't as old as Hawkins, Guthrie isn't as old as Dangerfield, Duncan isn't as old as Tuohy. Blicavs started late. The transition will be spread, just like it was with the 2011-2013 era veterans.

 

[STPer18]

The clubs best players paper over the cracks.

And we are running out of paper, so our young players look a lot worse.

Richmond are about 2 years ahead of Geelong in the rebuild stage. You’ll see what I mean soon enough when Hawkins Cameron and Co go. Thought your 2023 season would bring it to your attention, you have so far followed our ladder pattern after 2020 and I don’t think you’ll finish 7th in 2024 like we did in 2022.

Geelong made a prelim two years after our 3rd flag, and finals basically every year until 2022 when we won our 4th flag. We've been rejigging on the run for over a decade now, it's not comparable to Richmond who went the Crazy Clarko approach when the wheels started to buckle.

 

[Mr Meow]

It all depends on injuries really. With everyone is fit the Geelong team still looks very good, but the problem is with so many players over 30 the chances of soft tissue injuries are much higher.

Correct. A reasonable injury run and Geelong should sneak into the 8. A bad one and a season like 2023 is on the cards.

Everyone can have their theories on an old list getting many injuries but it doesn't always happen (look at the two oldest premiership sides, Geelong 2022 and Collingwood 2023 - fairly blessed injury runs).

 

[Mr Meow]

Geelong made a prelim two years after our 3rd flag, and finals basically every year until 2022 when we won our 4th flag. We've been rejigging on the run for over a decade now, it's not comparable to Richmond who went the Crazy Clarko approach when the wheels started to buckle.

We are the only club this century to keep our heads above water going from one highly successful era through to another flag with essentially a brand new side (with perennial prelim appearances at least along the way). That's no guarantee at all that the same will occur as this team's new batch of veterans are cycled up. But well run clubs tend to soften the blow.

 

[Cleansweep17]

I don't really get how you can be 2 years further behind in a rebuild when you have better stocks of 23 and unders.

2023 the squad would've made finals with an actual preseason and a non-disastrous injury run.

There's no doubt this team is about to lose some quality veterans. They're not all the same age though. Cameron isn't as old as Hawkins, Guthrie isn't as old as Dangerfield, Duncan isn't as old as Tuohy. Blicavs started late. The transition will be spread, just like it was with the 2011-2013 era veterans.

Funny I thought the exact same and blamed it on injuries and a lot of short preseasons. But it’s not. Your names on paper aren’t as good as what’s actually on the field.

See if you can win a final this season to better what we did in 2022 first. I don’t think you’ll be able to.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

It all depends on injuries really. With everyone is fit the Geelong team still looks very good, but the problem is with so many players over 30 the chances of soft tissue injuries are much higher.

It'll be interesting: part of me is fully prepared for and comfortable with another mediocre season this year, because I want to see what some of these kids are made of and who are the potential 10 year players on the fringes of the current senior team. I've really liked what I've seen from a lot of our younger players, but I'm under no illusion that everyone feels the same about their own club's 'yoof'.

And another interesting aspect of the imminent rebuild is the Kardinia Park factor: to my recollection, when we were rubbish in the early 2000s, we weren't any better in Geelong. I wonder whether that changes in the modern era and helps us crawl to 7-9 wins, even when we're bottoming out. Keeps you out of the very pointy part of the draft, but also means you get used to winning at least on a semi-regular basis in your formative AFL years.

 

[Cleansweep17]

Geelong made a prelim two years after our 3rd flag, and finals basically every year until 2022 when we won our 4th flag. We've been rejigging on the run for over a decade now, it's not comparable to Richmond who went the Crazy Clarko approach when the wheels started to buckle.

You aren’t going to better what we did post 2020. You have to win a final this year to do that. You confident?

 

[Cleansweep17]

We are the only club this century to keep our heads above water going from one highly successful era through to another flag with essentially a brand new side (with perennial prelim appearances at least along the way). That's no guarantee at all that the same will occur as this team's new batch of veterans are cycled up. But well run clubs tend to soften the blow.

You know that comes at a cost right? The longer you are up the harder the fall it’s the way AFL is designed, Geelong aren’t exempt from that. Simply not enough talent from picks will come in.

Why do you think your club is so old in the first place? It’s a backlog of delayed rebuild after delayed rebuild. It will eventually fall apart like a massive avalanche.

 

[FreddyTwoShoes]

I love how invested you are in this, Falcon.
Keep plugging away.

 

[STPer18]

You aren’t going to better what we did post 2020. You have to win a final this year to do that. You confident?

After our third flag we went:

Elimination final
Prelim final
Semi-final
10th
Prelim final
Prelim final
Elimination final
Prelim final
Runners up
Prelim final
Premiers
12th

Richmond after their third flag went:

12th
Elimination final
13th

We're not following the 'Richmond model', we're not following at all. It's already set in stone we backed up the years following our period of dominance better than your mob did and managed to add another flag. There's nothing more than needs to be done to do better than Richmond post 2020, if you want to get technical it was Richmond that didn't live up to Geelong's standard.

 

[Cleansweep17]

After our third flag we went:

Elimination final
Prelim final
Semi-final
10th
Prelim final
Prelim final
Elimination final
Prelim final
Runners up
Prelim final
Premiers
12th

Richmond after their third flag went:

12th
Elimination final
13th

We're not following the 'Richmond model', we're not following at all. It's already set in stone we backed up the years following our period of dominance better than your mob did and managed to add another flag.

Richmond from 2020 went

Flag

12th

EF final loss

13th

Geelong from 2022 went

Flag

12th

?

You are quite literally following the Richmond model now my friend and probably worse.

 

[STPer18]

Richmond from 2020 went

Flag

12th

EF final loss

13th

Geelong from 2022 went

Flag

12th

?

You are quite literally following the Richmond model now my friend and probably worse.

Geelong's three flags were from 2007-2011, remained competitive throughout the interim and added another in 2022.
Richmond's three flags were from 2017-2020 and haven't come close to replicating post-2011 Geelong.

 

[Cleansweep17]

4 flags in 16 years isnt impressive?? This is up there with your dumbest posts

We’ve done a 4 in 8 or/and 5 in 14

Hawks have done a 5 in 9

Dees have done a 5 in 6

Pies have done a 4peat

Carlton has some 3peats I’m pretty sure. So no actually not really.

 

[Cleansweep17]

Geelong's three flags were from 2007-2011, remained competitive throughout the interim and added another in 2022.
Richmond's three flags were from 2017-2020 and haven't come close to replicating post-2011 Geelong.

Not sure what that has to do with the present. So far you’ve exactly followed our pattern whilst ironically saying how shit we are. It’s quite funny.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

We’ve done a 4 in 8 or/and 5 in 14

Hawks have done a 5 in 9

Dees have done a 5 in 6

Pies have done a 4peat

Carlton has some 3peats I’m pretty sure. So no actually not really.

You just listed a few of the greatest eras in the 150+ years history of footy as an apparent claim as to why 4 flags 6 grand finals and once missing the finals is unimpressive across 16 years. Which makes zero sense.

Again, incredibly stupid

 

[Mr Meow]

You know that comes at a cost right? The longer you are up the harder the fall it’s the way AFL is designed, Geelong aren’t exempt from that. Simply not enough talent from picks will come in.

Why do you think your club is so old in the first place? It’s a backlog of delayed rebuild after delayed rebuild. It will eventually fall apart like a massive avalanche.

Look at how much of our 2022 premiership side consisted of rookie picks, late picks and FA. Nothing is set in stone.

Our likely round 1 side, with ages in brackets, is:

FB: J.Henry(25) De Koning(23) Z.Guthrie(25)
HB: Duncan(32) Kolo(28) Stewart(31)

C: Holmes(21) Bruhn(22) Blicavs(33)
FOL: Stanley(33) Bowes(26) Dangerfield(34)

HF: Miers(25) Cameron(31) Dempsey(20)
FF: O.Henry(21) Hawkins(35) Stengle(25)

IC: Close(25) Clark(19) Atkins(28) O'Connor(27)

7 veterans, 9 in their prime and 6 in their first few seasons. So a couple of veterans on each line and then a fairly young/prime aged bench.

If Richmond had Lynch and Martin available you'd have even more veterans in the side. Martin, Lynch, Prestia, Grimes, Vlastuin, Pickett, Broad, Naismith (Nank when he's back) and McIntosh. That's 9.