Analysis The Rebuilds of Geelong and Richmond and their Future Prospects

[Catastrophe!]

To be fair hes being smart with his wording because at this stage it would be wells talking to smiths manager (scott wouldnt be involved yet) so it doesnt mean the club hasnt spoken to him.

I take Scott at his word though, and he seemed genuinely perplexed when he was asked about it. Who knows, but I daresay the real link is between Smith and the Hawks - which is probably best for all concerned.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Will Richmond look to move on some mature players to bolster their draft hand this year? Short and Vlastuin are the two older guys that probably retain some decent currency for a team in their window.

Trading Hopper would be an admission of epic failure but given how slow the midfield looks it might be the right move. Or maybe Prestia will retire soon and Dow isn't up to it so they'll need Hopper as a mature body.

 

[MisterMarcus]

Super obvious sock puppet account with a weird Geelong obsession purged from existence. Deja vu.

I'll never forget how Old Mate Falcon had over 100 posts on a Dangerfield thread.

Imagine being so obsessed with a club that you write 100 posts on a thread that has nothing to do with your club.

 

[Foucault1989]

We had some shocking performances today. Ryan, Dow, and Koschitzke playing fairly key roles just got smashed. Ross had a slightly limited pre-season after an op so the club maybe just managing him at this stage.

Our midfield was destroyed really but some changes are coming there, and this Suns midfield could well be the best in the competition.

Early days, Steely green and Coulthard looked decent in the VFL practice match, Tom Brown is in the wings and Sonsie. Trezise looked good again today in the VFL team. And the new pick 40 odd McAuliffe is looking a bit of a prospect. We have enough depth with our youngsters, just lacking a top end mid and top end forward amongst them.

Gibcus I think will be fine but will have plenty of days like today this year, he will get outbodied at times, the club will just be telling him to not drop his head and keep doing what he does well. Plays like that need games and time to get to their potential level.

Young is a good player but you are not going to expect him to be able to carry a whole backline at this stage. I think key forwards might have some days out against us this year but the club will wear that knowing these guys will improve the more they play together.

You gotta give up on Dow and Ross. They don't have it. Will always be C - D grade AFL mids and A grade VFL mids. They are no where near the class of the top mids, even the next tier down from the top mids.

Kosi is such a limited footballer. I can't believe he is still on a list.

As we saw yesterday, Rioli and Bolton are your most important players. To be competitive they need to consistently have blinders and take risks.

 

[Rich01]

You gotta give up on Dow and Ross. They don't have it. Will always be C - D grade AFL mids and A grade VFL mids. They are no where near the class of the top mids, even the next tier down from the top mids.

Yes, this is the same argument I made about Dow Snr, Setterfield and Kennedy for years. They were given lots of time to develop and show something on your list, well more than the Richmond boys.

But yes, I agree this year should be make or break for both. Would be a mistake to hold them next year if they don’t progress significantly. I’m more optimistic of Ross being that role player than Dow.

Both out of contract as well, so both club and players would be well aware.

 

[Foucault1989]

Yes, this is the same argument I made about Dow Snr, Setterfield and Kennedy for years. They were given lots of time to develop and show something on your list, well more than the Richmond boys.

But yes, I agree this year should be make or break for both. Would be a mistake to hold them next year if they don’t progress significantly. I’m more optimistic of Ross being that role player than Dow.

Both out of contract as well, so both club and players would be well aware.

Yep eventually you just have to pull the pin on them and move on.

Our Dow just had deficiencies that reduced his impact on afl games. Setterfield had moments but not assertive or aggressive enough. I love Kennedy - he had a great 2022 but unfortunately his lack of mobility hurts him at AFL level. But I know I'd take those three above Ross and Dow jnr everyday day of the week. Neither look anywhere close to afl standard.

 

[Rich01]

Yep eventually you just have to pull the pin on them and move on.

Our Dow just had deficiencies that reduced his impact on afl games. Setterfield had moments but not assertive or aggressive enough. I love Kennedy - he had a great 2022 but unfortunately his lack of mobility hurts him at AFL level. But I know I'd take those three above Ross and Dow jnr everyday day of the week. Neither look anywhere close to afl standard.

As I said, I’m not disagreeing with your view. I just hope they either improve significantly or we cut the cord on them at the end of the year.

My comparison to the Carlton lads was more on giving them too much time on the list to prove themselves, not comparing them as players.

Hopefully we dont do the same and we make this year the one where we make a call either way.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

You gotta give up on Dow and Ross. They don't have it. Will always be C - D grade AFL mids and A grade VFL mids. They are no where near the class of the top mids, even the next tier down from the top mids.

Kosi is such a limited footballer. I can't believe he is still on a list.

As we saw yesterday, Rioli and Bolton are your most important players. To be competitive they need to consistently have blinders and take risks.

Was just doing some work on Ross. He was the 6th highest rated pure winger in the AFL in 2023, only a fraction behind AA selected Josh Daicos(who was the =3rd highest rated winger along with McLuggage behind Mason Wood and Nick Martin.) Ross's form that is apparent to a TV viewer is very good, but obviously the coaches want him playing his role a bit differently, because they rate McIntosh above him at this point - both in selection and 2023 B & F voting. It is tough to work out but Ross in most team's systems is considered a very good winger. Here is my post on the Jack Ross thread on the Richmond board:

Possibly to do with his late start to the pre-season, just easing him into it, especially with the 5 day break coming.

There is something we are missing with Ross that the coaches are seeing. Of wingers in 2023 I can only find about 5 in the AFL with higher average player ratings.

1 Nick Martin 12.37
2 Mason Wood 12.23
= 3 Josh Daicos 11.20
= 3 Hugh McLuggage 11.20
5 Karl Amon 10.95
6 Jack Ross 10.91

below him were:

Max Holmes 10.77
Blake Acres 10.64
Steele Sidebottom 10.12
Justin McInerney 9.75
Jake Soligo 9.44
Brandon Ellis 9.03
Ed Langdon 8.77
Lachie Hunter 8.48
Harry Morrison 8.24
Bailey Williams 7.67
Sam Durham 7.65
Jaspa Fletcher 7.49
Liam Henry 7.34
Lachie Scholl 7.03
Andrew Gaff 6.75
Xavier Duursma 6.46
Kamdyn McIntosh 6.25(finished ahead of Ross in our B & F)
Dylan Stephens 5.92
Oliver Hollands 5.92
Oscar Baker 5.19

So there has clearly been something McIntosh is doing that Ross is not doing that our coaches want our wingers to do.

McIntosh is 2nd among the wing cohort for spoils per game with 1.3. Mason Wood is 1st 2.0 per game. But Ross is still quite high for this cohort at 0.8 per game. Pressure acts are similar around 12.5 both Ross and McIntosh, and this is below the better wingers who are anything from about 13-16 range. McIntosh gets to slightly more defensive 1 v 1's per game and has slightly more tackles.

I suspect Ross is focussing on Ross getting the ball more than the coaches would prefer.

Dow on yesterday's evidence is atrocious. But you need to see more evidence before putting a line through him, it was hot, new ruck, 5 day break to next game. I am more bearish than bullish on him and have been for some time, but the club can afford to give him games and see how he goes.

Koschitzke I think you have spot on. He is trying to do all the right things, is probably just too limited to do them well enough to win his position against good players at this level.

Richmond has a lot of formations they can try yet. Nankervis, Lynch, Martin, Graham are obviously experienced players who can make a huge difference collectively.

 

[Cleansweep17]

You're convinced Geelong will be bottom 4 or barely above it.

Get back to me when Geelong finish bottom 4 and have a less impressive batch of kids than Richmond.

We'll probably be waiting 40 years.

My Geelong 12th-14th prediction isn’t crazy. You literally just finished 12th.

Where do you think you’d finish again?

 

[Cleansweep17]

The same was said in 2011, 2015 and even 2020. Same old tune.

And eventually it will be right. This is the time it is.

 

[Cleansweep17]

It's Falcons umpteenth alt account, don't even bother.

The dude's life really is arguing over Geelong on BigFooty. It's seriously concerning.

They say obsession should be flattering, but the reality is pretty weird.

Please just don’t

 

[Cleansweep17]

When 9 of them are in your best 22, and only 2 players aged 25 or under are in your best 12-15 players, then yes you are reliant on your veterans.

It's just that they can only carry your to 12th-14th when the sensible aim would be 17th-18th.

Only 2 over 30s are elite Lynch and Dusty. Not sure if you realise but Taranto,Hopper, Baker, D Rioli, Bolton, Balta are the new core group of best players. I have no idea where you are getting your opinion that we are over relying on 30+ year old players from. You said yourself they aren’t that good.

 

[FreddyTwoShoes]

Please just don’t

Why do you care about Falcon or Carboot or whatever it was.

You’re neither of those, right? Right?

 

[Footy Smarts]

Was just doing some work on Ross. He was the 6th highest rated pure winger in the AFL in 2023, only a fraction behind AA selected Josh Daicos

And that's the point where you should realise player ratings are the most useless nonsense in the game.

We're now at 3 different coaches in 12 months to leave him out of the 22.

 

[Pomsta]

And that's the point where you should realise player ratings are the most useless nonsense in the game.

We're now at 3 different coaches in 12 months to leave him out of the 22.

Yet when he came on he has 10 possessions in 38% game time at 100% efficiency. He was showing similar skills last year. He helped turn the game around after half time. Just not sure what he is not doing for the coaches to keep dropping him.

 

[Mr Meow]

Was just doing some work on Ross. He was the 6th highest rated pure winger in the AFL in 2023, only a fraction behind AA selected Josh Daicos(who was the =3rd highest rated winger along with McLuggage behind Mason Wood and Nick Martin.) Ross's form that is apparent to a TV viewer is very good, but obviously the coaches want him playing his role a bit differently, because they rate McIntosh above him at this point - both in selection and 2023 B & F voting. It is tough to work out but Ross in most team's systems is considered a very good winger. Here is my post on the Jack Ross thread on the Richmond board:




Dow on yesterday's evidence is atrocious. But you need to see more evidence before putting a line through him, it was hot, new ruck, 5 day break to next game. I am more bearish than bullish on him and have been for some time, but the club can afford to give him games and see how he goes.

Koschitzke I think you have spot on. He is trying to do all the right things, is probably just too limited to do them well enough to win his position against good players at this level.

Richmond has a lot of formations they can try yet. Nankervis, Lynch, Martin, Graham are obviously experienced players who can make a huge difference collectively.

I'm afraid that this just shows the flaws in that Player Ratings (TM) system. I do think Ross should be in the side but there's not a chance in Hell that he's been a better wingman than a handful of those players below him.

Kozzy is like 1999 Mooney. He has a long way to go to become the good servant Mooney did 2003-2010. You'd have been better off getting Chol back. Young Neale from the Cats would be getting 22 games at Richmond this season.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Yet when he came on he has 10 possessions in 38% game time at 100% efficiency. He was showing similar skills last year. He helped turn the game around after half time. Just not sure what he is not doing for the coaches to keep dropping him.

I think his issue is that he doesn't really have a point of difference. What's his strength that is elite at AFL level?

He reminds me of Charlie Constable. At Geelong he racked up the ball at VFL level and got plenty of it at AFL level. There were Geelong posters convinced he was a gun that was being unfairly treated. He went to gold coast and couldn't get a game there either.

If you watch the games closely I see similarities between the two. Their disposal isn't damaging, they don't win it on the inside and their defensive intensity and tackling is average at best. They pick up a bunch of somewhat pointless disposals without actually making the team any better. I think that's why the fans looking at stats can't understand why they're not picked while the coaches analysing the game in detail don't see any real positives they bring.

 

[Footy Smarts]

I genuinely don't understand how some football experts think Geelong will be pushing for top 4 this year. It is one of the most baffling calls I have seen in a while. I don't even think Geelong fans think they will be in premiership contention this year.

I know you're a Sydney fan and it's understandable if you wiped the 2022 GF from your memory but you do remember we eviscerated the competition 18 months ago right? And we've got 21/23 of those premiership players still on our list.

That itself should make tips that we could push the top 4 far from "the most baffling calls I've seen".

But we've also got 3x top 20 picks from the 2020 draft going into their 4th season (Holmes, Bruhn and Henry). That's the age where young players have a habit of breaking out. None of them played the 2022 grand final.

If a bunch of our older guys fall off a cliff of course we won't be great. But if 1-2 of those young guys break out and the rest of the squad play anywhere near their 2022 form then we'll be a very good team.

 

[blaisee]

Still to this day I don’t get why the tigers went after Toranto. He is cream, not cake…

What’s Bowes ?

Wastage ?

 

[CharacterFirst]

What’s Bowes ?

Wastage ?

He is a bonus. Top 10 in his draft, and looking good for the year ahead.

Then you have to add that we also got PICK 7!!!! along with him.

 

[RUNVS]

I know you're a Sydney fan and it's understandable if you wiped the 2022 GF from your memory but you do remember we eviscerated the competition 18 months ago right? And we've got 21/23 of those premiership players still on our list.

That itself should make tips that we could push the top 4 far from "the most baffling calls I've seen".

But we've also got 3x top 20 picks from the 2020 draft going into their 4th season (Holmes, Bruhn and Henry). That's the age where young players have a habit of breaking out. None of them played the 2022 grand final.

If a bunch of our older guys fall off a cliff of course we won't be great. But if 1-2 of those young guys break out and the rest of the squad play anywhere near their 2022 form then we'll be a very good team.

A lot can happen in 18 months. Look at where West Coast were 2 years after their flag.

Now I am not saying that will happen to Geelong, but I don't think you will be contenders this year, even if everything goes right with injuries.

 

[Footy Smarts]

A lot can happen in 18 months. Look at where West Coast were 2 years after their flag.

Now I am not saying that will happen to Geelong, but I don't think you will be contenders this year, even if everything goes right with injuries.

Where do you think West Coast were 2 years after their flag? Do you need to check the 2020 ladder? My maths isn't great but I'm pretty sure 2018 + 2 = 2020.

 

[RUNVS]

Where do you think West Coast were 2 years after their flag? Do you need to check the 2020 ladder? My maths isn't great but I'm pretty sure 2018 + 2 = 2020.

My point being they never regained what they had in 2018. They slowly declined until they hit a wall and fell down hard.

Geelong have lost some crucial players since 2022, and many of the important player they have not lost are now 2 years older. Players like Hawkins and Dangerfield are not getting better at their age.

Again, not saying Geelong will be a bad team in 2024, but I don't think they will be in premiership contention.

 

[Catsnlakers]

A lot can happen in 18 months. Look at where West Coast were 2 years after their flag.

Now I am not saying that will happen to Geelong, but I don't think you will be contenders this year, even if everything goes right with injuries.

West Coast were still pretty good two years post flag, hosted a final I’m pretty sure!?….Last year we had a lot of things go wrong, polar opposite to 2022 where not much went wrong at all, I see us as a rung below the top few sides, but right alongside teams such as the Saints, you guys, Dees etc…5-10th.

 

[RUNVS]

West Coast were still pretty good two years post flag, hosted a final I’m pretty sure!?….Last year we had a lot of things go wrong, polar opposite to 2022 where not much went wrong at all, I see us as a rung below the top few sides, but right alongside teams such as the Saints, you guys, Dees etc…5-10th.

Yes you had a lot of things go wrong, but that is to be expected with an older list as older lists are more likely to pick up injuries. Now it is possible you won't have those problems again in 2024, but it isn't something I would personally bet on happening.