Analysis The Rebuilds of Geelong and Richmond and their Future Prospects

[Footy Smarts]

18 months is a long time in football. It’s essentially half a dynasties era. Let that sink in.

On top of that your age profile in 2022 was the same as a dynasty’s AT THE END of the dynasty run.

That’s why it’s valid to say your players are cooked age wise despite having 21/23 players premiership players still on the list.

The termites have already eaten the wood so to speak. Geelong is about to crumble in 2024, you just don’t know it yet.

Maybe. But will we be bad enough to concede 11 consecutive goals to the mighty Gold Coast Suns?

 

[Mr Meow]

Also just because I worked hard on this earlier in the year and it is relevant

12. Geelong (11) - Smith, Ceglar
32+ - Hawkins, Tuohy, Dangerfield, Stanley, Blicavas, Rohan, Duncan
29-32 – C.Guthrie, Stewart, Cameron, Bews
27-29 – Kolodjashnig, Atkins
25-27 – O'Connor, Bowes, Parfitt, Z.Guthrie, Close, Henry, Stengle
23-25 – Miers, Mullin
21-23 – De-Koning, Jeka, Bruhn, Neale, O.Henry, Holmes
Under 21 – Dempey, Knevitt


13. Richmond (9) - Reiwoldt, Tarrant, Cotchin
32+ - Martin, Grimes
29-32 – Pickett, Prestia, Lynch, Broad, Mcintosh, Vlastuin, Nankervis
27-29 – Short
25-27 – Hopper, D.Rioli, Baker, Taranto, Graham, Young
23-25 – Bolton, Miller, Balta, Mansell, Koschitzke, Ross
21-23 – Ryan, Cumberland, Dow, Ralphsmith, M.Rioli
Under 21 – Sonsie, Banks, Gibcus, Clarke

Clark, Conway and Mannagh will play more this season than Parfitt, Bews and Jeka.

 

[Cleansweep17]

Maybe. But will we be bad enough to concede 11 consecutive goals to the mighty Gold Coast Suns?

Came back alright though with 7 straight. Didn’t have Nank, Graham, Dusty or Lynch either interstate against our ex coach. I don’t think it’s a valid game to site tbh.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

Thanks.

Take out all the red players and we have a much better list. Geelong are cooked.

And yet despite your efforts with your 13 alt accounts, Geelong are STILL comfortably leading this poll.

It's not even close. More high draft picks, more games played.

Get back to us in two years when you've actually hit the draft.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

Came back alright though with 7 straight. Didn’t have Nank, Graham, Dusty or Lynch either interstate against our ex coach. I don’t think it’s a valid game to site tbh.

Right, it was so invalid that you YOU where talking about tanking halfway through the second quarter.

That wasn't us, that was you. Make up your mind.

 

[Cleansweep17]

And yet despite your efforts with your 13 alt accounts, Geelong are STILL comfortably leading this poll.

It's not even close. More high draft picks, more games played.

Get back to us in two years when you've actually hit the draft.

Who tf cares about a poll

Prove it. If you win a final this year you beat our equivalent season in 2022. That’s the test not a bloody BF poll

Any of you Cats people confident you’ll win a final this year? No, didn’t think so. So take a seat for the moment.

 

[Mr Meow]

Thanks.

Take out all the red players and we have a much better list. Geelong are cooked.

Bolton (as a younger/prime aged player) and Short (as a more experienced player) are the only two assets Geelong could do with from Richmond's under 30s.

De Koning is well ahead of Gibcus at this stage.

J.Henry a serious step upgrade on Young.

Then we still have another handy tall in Kolo. O'Sullivan will be our Balta-type player, hopefully with less brain implosions.

Holmes ceiling is higher than what Taranto will produce at Richmond.

Z.Guthrie and Stengle's output is essentially the same as Rioli and Baker's.

Atkins is basically Hopper but a bit older.

Miers, Close, O'Connor, Bowes, Mullin > Graham, Miller, Mansell, Kozzy, Ross

Then there's not a single player Geelong would want from Richmond's 23 and under list. Richmond would love to have SDK, Holmes, O.Henry, Bruhn, Clark, Dempsey, Neale and Conway in that age range.

 

[Cleansweep17]

Right, it was so invalid that you YOU where talking about tanking halfway through the second quarter.

That wasn't us, that was you. Make up your mind.

Yeah it was a game that didn’t matter, so I wasn’t worried about the win. Just the development of kids, hence the tanking comment. What’s the problem?

 

[Kobe Gryant]

Bolton (as a younger/prime aged player) and Short (as a more experienced player) are the only two assets Geelong could do with from Richmond's under 30s.

De Koning is well ahead of Gibcus at this stage.

J.Henry a serious step upgrade on Young.

Then we still have another handy tall in Kolo. O'Sullivan will be our Balta-type player, hopefully with less brain implosions.

Holmes ceiling is higher than what Taranto will produce at Richmond.

Z.Guthrie and Stengle's output is essentially the same as Rioli and Baker's.

Atkins is basically Hopper but a bit older.

Miers, Close, O'Connor, Bowes, Mullin > Graham, Miller, Mansell, Kozzy, Ross

Then there's not a single player Geelong would want from Richmond's 23 and under list. Richmond would love to have SDK, Holmes, O.Henry, Bruhn, Clark, Dempsey, Neale and Conway in that age range.

Bang on.

This thread should be closed until 2026 when things might be a bit more even, and even then, that would imply that we don't pick up any youth between now and then that widens the gap.

They're two drafts behind, and it's because of Hopper & Taranto. That's all this is.

 

[Cleansweep17]

The test? According to who?

The poll is there so neutrals can actually have their say. Take the emotion and bias out of it from the Geelong & Richmond supporters.

It's no wonder you're the joke of an entire football forum. Please, for the sake of all of us...seek help.

You’re telling me to seek help after thinking a BF poll matters more than what both clubs actually produce? Yeah ok

 

[Cleansweep17]

Bolton (as a younger/prime aged player) and Short (as a more experienced player) are the only two assets Geelong could do with from Richmond's under 30s.

De Koning is well ahead of Gibcus at this stage.

J.Henry a serious step upgrade on Young.

Then we still have another handy tall in Kolo. O'Sullivan will be our Balta-type player, hopefully with less brain implosions.

Holmes ceiling is higher than what Taranto will produce at Richmond.

Z.Guthrie and Stengle's output is essentially the same as Rioli and Baker's.

Atkins is basically Hopper but a bit older.

Miers, Close, O'Connor, Bowes, Mullin > Graham, Miller, Mansell, Kozzy, Ross

Then there's not a single player Geelong would want from Richmond's 23 and under list. Richmond would love to have SDK, Holmes, O.Henry, Bruhn, Clark, Dempsey, Neale and Conway in that age range.

Our 23-29 age group as a collective are much better than yours, it isn’t even funny.

But younger yes yours are better.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

You’re telling me to seek help after thinking a BF poll matters more than what both clubs actually produce? Yeah ok

My guy, you lose on that metric too. We've got several more high picks, with a ridiculous amount more of games played.

And no, I'm telling you to seek help for your weird Geelong obsession that has you burning through 5 accounts a year arguing about the same shit everyday.

 

[Cleansweep17]

My guy, you lose on that metric too. We've got several more high picks, with a ridiculous amount more of games played.

And no, I'm telling you to seek help for your weird Geelong obsession that has you burning through 5 accounts a year arguing about the same s**t everyday.

Ok then that’s why I said we’ll just wait and see what each club produces. Hence the test. Win a final in 2024 which is a step up on what we did in 2022 and I’ll concede. It should be really simple if what you are saying is true right?

 

[Mr Meow]

Ok then that’s why I said we’ll just wait and see what each club produces. Hence the test. Win a final in 2024 which is a step up on what we did in 2022 and I’ll concede. It should be really simple if what you are saying is true right?

Or...we could just assess, in particular, the collective output of each sides bunch of 23 and unders. We can push it up to 25 and unders maybe, because the earlier bracket I can't see which Richmond player could even have a decent season.

 

[juss]

The poll is irrelevant to the clubs fortunes, as are the opinions.

This one is hard to predict, it'll come down to the coaching teams, drafting and recruiting and which of each teams younger players can go on to become quality AFL players.

Both teams have long term heroes that are both gone and going, and won't be around for their next tilt.

 

[Cleansweep17]

Or...we could just assess, in particular, the collective output of each sides bunch of 23 and unders. We can push it up to 25 and unders maybe, because the earlier bracket I can't see which Richmond player could even have a decent season.

That’s what the ladder position is for matey

You a little scared? I haven’t heard you confirm you’re in yet. I’m up for it.

 

[Mr Meow]

That’s what the ladder position is for matey

You a little scared? I haven’t heard you confirm you’re in yet. I’m up for it.

You predicted 13th or worse. That would be where we set the line.

But that wouldn't measure how good the under 23s are. The veterans could have down years.

Raw stats, coaches votes and then B&F votes for all 23s and under would be a fair enough comparison.

It is very, very likely that you will reject this for obvious reasons. You don't believe in your youth.

 

[Mr Meow]

Cleansweep17 it's bizarre that you think Geelong 2024's youth is equivalent to Richmond 2022. Just because both sides won a flag 2 years previous.

Show me Richmond's 25 and unders from 2022. You won't do it so I will in a bit. Then we'll see how they compare to Geelong's for 2024.

 

[Cleansweep17]

You predicted 13th or worse. That would be where we set the line.

But that wouldn't measure how good the under 23s are. The veterans could have down years.

Raw stats, coaches votes and then B&F votes for all 23s and under would be a fair enough comparison.

It is very, very likely that you will reject this for obvious reasons. You don't believe in your youth.

Hmm, my predictions don’t matter. Why are we using them? This is about actual AFL results mate i.e the ladder. Which is all that matters.

But thanks for confirming you are scared. You apparently have so much better talent and development teams and won’t even better what we did in 2022.

 

[Cleansweep17]

Cleansweep17 it's bizarre that you think Geelong 2024's youth is equivalent to Richmond 2022. Just because both sides won a flag 2 years previous.

Show me Richmond's 25 and unders from 2022. You won't do it so I will in a bit. Then we'll see how they compare to Geelong's for 2024.

This is about both our clubs future rebuilds. The road map is after our flags (hence the whole thing being called a rebuild in the first place). We were identical the first year off our flag being 12th the next season. Let’s see where we go from here. We set the benchmark at 7th in the second season. GO!

 

[geelong_crazy26]

My point being they never regained what they had in 2018. They slowly declined until they hit a wall and fell down hard.

Geelong have lost some crucial players since 2022, and many of the important player they have not lost are now 2 years older. Players like Hawkins and Dangerfield are not getting better at their age.

Again, not saying Geelong will be a bad team in 2024, but I don't think they will be in premiership contention.

To be honest if we did finish bottom four it wouldnt phase me. We have been successful for so darn long ( since 2007 competing) that a couple of seasons getting elite picks would be refreshing to an extent and good timing before tassie swallows up the draft and attacks some of the higher paid stars from top clubs.

 

[Mr Meow]

This is about both our clubs future rebuilds. The road map is after our flags (hence the whole thing being called a rebuild in the first place). We were identical the first year off our flag being 12th the next season. Let’s see where we go from here. We set the benchmark at 7th in the second season. GO!

You've gotten yourself really confused.

Geelong 2024 already has more integral first 22 players aged 22 or under than Richmond did in 2022.

Richmond has 9 players 25 or under in their best 22 this season. Geelong has 11.

You seem to think Geelong 2024 = Richmond 2022 for the list profile.

You're wrong. Geelong 2024 = Richmond 2024. So the batch of kids should be compared directly.

The bar is actually who finishes higher this season, and then ranking the output of the players in the respective age brackets.

Once again you will reject this, doubling down on your inaccurate line in the sand, as you are, to put it politely, a simpleton. There's not much going on upstairs.

 

[RUNVS]

To be honest if we did finish bottom four it wouldnt phase me. We have been successful for so darn long ( since 2007 competing) that a couple of seasons getting elite picks would be refreshing to an extent and good timing before tassie swallows up the draft and attacks some of the higher paid stars from top clubs.

I don't even think you will finish bottom 4. I think Geelong will finish between 8th and 12th. I just don't think Geelong will be in contention this year.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

The poll is irrelevant to the clubs fortunes, as are the opinions.

This one is hard to predict, it'll come down to the coaching teams, drafting and recruiting and which of each teams younger players can go on to become quality AFL players.

Both teams have long term heroes that are both gone and going, and won't be around for their next tilt.

I agree with this. I think Geelong is ahead but you would think alot of the under 23s their supporters are banging on about are stars of the comp already the way they are being talked up. It helps being in a very good system. Take that away there's not much difference with alot of young talent across the league. You guys are basically starting from scratch when it comes to implementing a solid gameplan that the team buys into. Bit like us at the start of last year. Alot of the young talent is unknown and despite what Cats fans think quite a bit of their youth is unproven too. We won't know for a couple of years either sides fortunes till both play a run of matches with their young talent sprinkled throughout the team each week.

 

[juss]

I agree with this. I think Geelong is ahead but you would think alot of the under 23s their supporters are banging on about are stars of the comp already the way they are being talked up. It helps being in a very good system. Take that away there's not much difference with alot of young talent across the league. You guys are basically starting from scratch when it comes to implementing a solid gameplan that the team buys into. Bit like us at the start of last year. Alot of the young talent is unknown and despite what Cats fans think quite a bit of their youth is unproven too. We won't know for a couple of years either sides fortunes till both play a run of matches with their young talent sprinkled throughout the team each week.

Geelong to me are 2 years "behind" chronologically Richmond's end of the era, what I mean by that is if our last flag was in 2020 and theirs was 2022, they've still got a reasonable element of the same team running around on the list and some are playing somewhat similar levels, similar to what we had in 2022 when we made finals. Comparing 2024 Richmond to 2024 Geelong isn't really a like for like in their peak and decline trajectories, we've well and truly gone/going through it with Cotchin, Riewoldt, Houli, Edwards, Astbury, Grigg, Dimma, etc all leaving, and guys like Prestia and Grimes looking like they've gone on a year too long.

The Cats will have similar over the next year or two with Selwood already leaving, and the ones that wouldn't be too far away in Hawkins, Touhy, Stanley, Duncan, Dangerfield, Blicavs all getting close to retirement / the age decline in form. Then there's the question of does Chris Scott stick around for their rebuild or not.

If you're comparing like for like then the Cats should be around the finals mark this season, but it's the next year or two where they might feel those losses in player and experience.

I dont care which kids they have they aren't replacing all those club greats, it's impossible to do, that's how the cycle works. Projecting 3, 5, 7 years ahead is a throw at a dartboard at best in the AFL. It is so much more complex than "who's kids look better right now" scenario.