- Jun 19, 2006
- 11,498
- 23,103
- AFL Club
- Geelong
Geelong to me are 2 years "behind" chronologically Richmond's end of the era, what I mean by that is if our last flag was in 2020 and theirs was 2022, they've still got a reasonable element of the same team running around on the list and some are playing somewhat similar levels, similar to what we had in 2022 when we made finals. Comparing 2024 Richmond to 2024 Geelong isn't really a like for like in their peak and decline trajectories, we've well and truly gone/going through it with Cotchin, Riewoldt, Houli, Edwards, Astbury, Grigg, Dimma, etc all leaving, and guys like Prestia and Grimes looking like they've gone on a year too long.
The Cats will have similar over the next year or two with Selwood already leaving, and the ones that wouldn't be too far away in Hawkins, Touhy, Stanley, Duncan, Dangerfield, Blicavs all getting close to retirement / the age decline in form. Then there's the question of does Chris Scott stick around for their rebuild or not.
If you're comparing like for like then the Cats should be around the finals mark this season, but it's the next year or two where they might feel those losses in player and experience.
I dont care which kids they have they aren't replacing all those club greats, it's impossible to do, that's how the cycle works. Projecting 3, 5, 7 years ahead is a throw at a dartboard at best in the AFL. It is so much more complex than "who's kids look better right now" scenario.
Timing wise both clubs are almost identical. You have just ignored the players Geelong lost. Guys like Taylor, Ablett, Selwood, Smith, Menegola, Henderson and Dahlhaus.
From the 2020 GF Richmond has 15 players still on its list. 11 of them played on the weekend and the other 4 (Martin, Lynch, Nankervis and Graham) would have if available.
Geelong have 16 on their list so almost identical. But definitely Parfitt and probably Bews won't be in the best 22 so we've had to replace just as many.
There are 2 differences in list management since about 2018.
Geelong's hail Mary attempt at a flag was bringing in Cameron and Smith. This was early enough that our best players hadn't declined, they cost far less than Taranto and Hopper and performed far better. It was a massive success.
The other difference is that Geelong have got their recruiting right since 2018 while Richmond absolutely haven't. So we have 9 top 25 draft picks with a combined 208 games. Richmond have 3 with a combined 38 games. 2 of those 3 are Dow and Brown. Dow looks like a near certain bust right now and Brown has had one charity game and still can't make the team in his 3rd season.
The next few years is where the teams are going to diverge. I think both teams at their best this year will be good. But Geelong's depth and young players coming through vastly outstrips Richmond's. So Richmond get a few injuries and are left playing guys like Koschitzke and Dow who have disappointed time and time again. If Geelong get a few injuries it'll open the door for vastly higher rated kids like Clark and O'Sullivan.