Analysis The Rebuilds of Geelong and Richmond and their Future Prospects

[Fadge]

Come back to me when you’ve done a 5 in 14 or 4 in 8. Until then you are minnows.

Is 4 in 4 any good?

 

[Grrr]

In 2018 our midfield was Selwood, Dangerfield, Ablett and Kelly with Duncan running through at times.

For the 2022 flag it was a deeper midfield but Guthrie, Danger, Blicavs, Selwood and Atkins were our primary centre square mids. So 3 new players, 2 from other roles.

Chris Scott said last night that Bruhn and Clark will play as inside mids. I'd expect Holmes to play significant minutes in there too. So we've definitely turned it over.

We'll see how well it works but high picks with 50-odd games like Bruhn and Holmes is a good place to start. Clark in his second year when he missed most of his first season is a big ask but he looked great in preseason and he was pick 8 so highly rated. They'll still be assisted by Danger, Blicavs and Guthrie once he's fit.

Over 6 years of course you will regenerate, so missing a year which Richmond did picking up two established players will not make much of a difference.

 

[Grrr]

Even if they perform both well, it will still remain highly dubious as to whether the time was right to trade in these guys. Trading in these two was exactly the same as Hawthorn trading the farm for Mitchell and O'Meara (and later Wingard); Mitchell in particular had a great first two years, but it was not the right time to bring those guys in.

That may be so, although harsh on Mitchell. O'Meara unfortunately was cruelled by injury, Hawks took a punt that he would heal. But Richmond at that time still had the nucleus of their GF side playing, finished 6th in '22 (and should have gone higher), so it is not like we had bottomed out. Losing Lynch, 2022 best forward or close enough, was a massive loss. Hardwick running out of ideas another.

Where Richmond is at, nobody really knows after 1 game, half a dozen games in will tell the tale.

 

[Tristan34]

Next time Richmond contends Geelong will have more flags....

 

[Grrr]

Next time Richmond contends Geelong will have more flags....

big question is who will have the most spoons.

 

[My Tilly]

big question is who will have the most spoons.

I don't like your chances considering recent spoons in 04 & 07.

 

[Grrr]

I don't like your chances considering recent spoons in 04 & 07.

Recent, that's quite a while ago, was talking the future.

 

[Footy Smarts]

How Richmond approaches the rest of the year will be interesting.

Clearly right now Yze is picking his best team and seeing what level they're at. Which is the only logical thing to do at the start of the season despite Kane Cornes wanting half the mature players thrown out. Unfortunately the kids haven't been able to usurp the older players as yet so all the mature guys are still being picked.

If they lose a few more of the early games do they back in the same team aiming for a GWS type turn around? Or do they look to regenerate? And how do they maintain the desire and competitiveness of the older players if finals are off the table early.

Alternately knock off an undermanned Carlton tonight and the first half last week looks like an aberration and home games against Port and Sydney look very winnable.

 

[Pomsta]

How Richmond approaches the rest of the year will be interesting.

Clearly right now Yze is picking his best team and seeing what level they're at. Which is the only logical thing to do at the start of the season despite Kane Cornes wanting half the mature players thrown out. Unfortunately the kids haven't been able to usurp the older players as yet so all the mature guys are still being picked.

If they lose a few more of the early games do they back in the same team aiming for a GWS type turn around? Or do they look to regenerate? And how do they maintain the desire and competitiveness of the older players if finals are off the table early.

Alternately knock off an undermanned Carlton tonight and the first half last week looks like an aberration and home games against Port and Sydney look very winnable.

The same thing goes for Geelong though. What if Geelong is 3-8 or 4-7 at the halfway mark of the season? Do they drop Hawkins, Stanley and Duncan to see what they have in the kids or do you keep playing your best players until finals are out of the question. You've got to try to win until you are mathematically out of finals contentention don't you?

 

[Footy Smarts]

The same thing goes for Geelong though. What if Geelong is 3-8 or 4-7 at the halfway mark of the season? Do they drop Hawkins, Stanley and Duncan to see what they have in the kids or do you keep playing your best players until finals are out of the question. You've got to try to win until you are mathematically out of finals contentention don't you?

The same thing goes for Geelong but the difference is how many young players are already playing key roles in the best 22.

Chris Scott in AFL 360 named 3 young kids he says will "not play bit part roles" but play "critical roles". They were Clark, Bruhn and Holmes. You can guarantee O Henry and SDK are important parts of the best 22. So that's 5 young players playing significant roles already in the best 22.

I would be very surprised if Dempsey isn't picked for round 1 (more a bit part role) and Stanley has already said he won't play every week so Conway will get games as the number 1 ruck regardless of how we're going. We'll find a way to rotate a few other kids in at times to.

In comparison this week Richmond have named 4 players younger than SDK. Two are small forwards playing bit part roles (Campbell and Rioli). Dow had a very poor game last week and must be under threat for his position. The other is Gibcus who I assume is pretty safe.

So getting to 8-10 young players in the team with 4-5 playing key roles if they are out of contention doesn't require huge changes for Geelong. The key roles are already taken up. Rotate out O'Connor for Mullin, Tuohy for Knevitt and O'Sullivan for Kolodjashnij and suddenly the team will be very young. For Richmond it really requires a major shake up to this week's team to get to similar numbers and roles.

 

[Muddiemoose]

The same thing goes for Geelong but the difference is how many young players are already playing key roles in the best 22.

Chris Scott in AFL 360 named 3 young kids he says will "not play bit part roles" but play "critical roles". They were Clark, Bruhn and Holmes. You can guarantee O Henry and SDK are important parts of the best 22. So that's 5 young players playing significant roles already in the best 22.

I would be very surprised if Dempsey isn't picked for round 1 (more a bit part role) and Stanley has already said he won't play every week so Conway will get games as the number 1 ruck regardless of how we're going. We'll find a way to rotate a few other kids in at times to.

In comparison this week Richmond have named 4 players younger than SDK. Two are small forwards playing bit part roles (Campbell and Rioli). Dow had a very poor game last week and must be under threat for his position. The other is Gibcus who I assume is pretty safe.

So getting to 8-10 young players in the team with 4-5 playing key roles if they are out of contention doesn't require huge changes for Geelong. The key roles are already taken up. Rotate out O'Connor for Mullin, Tuohy for Knevitt and O'Sullivan for Kolodjashnij and suddenly the team will be very young. For Richmond it really requires a major shake up to this week's team to get to similar numbers and roles.

That’s pretty selective on the definition of young
Eg Balta is 24 (not a kid) but he’s got anywhere between 7 - 10 years of good footy so he wouldn’t count as a player who is going to be phased out over the next few seasons either

Likewise for Young (no pun intended) who is in a similar boat

Bolton is probably our best mid who has just turned 25

Throw in Taranto who is 26


No these guys aren’t “young” but they aren’t the types we are discussing about losing in the foreseeable future like Dusty, Grimes, Danger, Hawkins ect

 

[My Tilly]

That’s pretty selective on the definition of young
Eg Balta is 24 (not a kid) but he’s got anywhere between 7 - 10 years of good footy so he wouldn’t count as a player who is going to be phased out over the next few seasons either

Likewise for Young (no pun intended) who is in a similar boat

Bolton is probably our best mid who has just turned 25

Throw in Taranto who is 26


No these guys aren’t “young” but they aren’t the types we are discussing about losing in the foreseeable future like Dusty, Grimes, Danger, Hawkins ect

Not sure 25-26 is considered young in AFL sporting terms. It means they have 5 years of solid football left in them.

Anyone under the age of 23 is young.
Not sure you have anyone of quality coming through. Rioli looks likely and there's big raps on Gibcus (mainly from Richmond supporters) but it's few and far between as is to be expected after a strong era.

Likewise Geelong, Holmes, De Koning, Henry and well entrenched in the best 22 but a lot of question marks on a handful of 'hopefuls'.

 

[Footy Smarts]

That’s pretty selective on the definition of young
Eg Balta is 24 (not a kid) but he’s got anywhere between 7 - 10 years of good footy so he wouldn’t count as a player who is going to be phased out over the next few seasons either

Likewise for Young (no pun intended) who is in a similar boat

Bolton is probably our best mid who has just turned 25

Throw in Taranto who is 26


No these guys aren’t “young” but they aren’t the types we are discussing about losing in the foreseeable future like Dusty, Grimes, Danger, Hawkins ect

Are Bolton, Balta and Taranto going to improve a lot from here? Balta could somewhat. The others unlikely since they've played 100+ games and are already very good players.

I didn't include Geelong players of a similar age like J Henry, Stengle, Miers, Close, etc.

None of these guys are going anywhere but they're also not going to regenerate the team. That will require some kids really improving and Geelong's team will at least have 5-6 playing important roles.

 

[Muddiemoose]

Not sure 25-26 is considered young in AFL sporting terms. It means they have 5 years of solid football left in them.

Anyone under the age of 23 is young.
Not sure you have anyone of quality coming through. Rioli looks likely and there's big raps on Gibcus (mainly from Richmond supporters) but it's few and far between as is to be expected after a strong era.

Likewise Geelong, Holmes, De Koning, Henry and well entrenched in the best 22 but a lot of question marks on a handful of 'hopefuls'.

Just depends on what the recruitment strategy’s are of the clubs

For mine it looks like Richmond are backing in a core group of Hopper, Taranto, Bolton, Balta, Gibcus, Young and trying to build around that group

As you said probably 5 seasons before they age out but a lot can happen between now and that point in terms of drafting, trading/free agency to complement that group

 

[Muddiemoose]

Are Bolton, Balta and Taranto going to improve a lot from here? Balta could somewhat. The others unlikely since they've played 100+ games and are already very good players.

I didn't include Geelong players of a similar age like J Henry, Stengle, Miers, Close, etc.

None of these guys are going anywhere but they're also not going to regenerate the team. That will require some kids really improving and Geelong's team will at least have 5-6 playing important roles.

The post just after this one kind of touches on that

It’s not about improvement from that group but more that is the group the list management guys are trying to build around

I would guess in their mind try and become competitive with those guys in 2 - 3 seasons while still playing prime footy

Not saying it’s going to work but just more an observation of what the plan seems to be

 

[Mr Meow]

The post just after this one kind of touches on that

It’s not about improvement from that group but more that is the group the list management guys are trying to build around

I would guess in their mind try and become competitive with those guys in 2 - 3 seasons while still playing prime footy

Not saying it’s going to work but just more an observation of what the plan seems to be

Which Richmond 23 and unders would you anticipate potentially playing important roles this or next year? Gibcus comes to mind but I'm not sure who else.

For us in 2024 it's:

De Koning (23)
Bruhn (22)
O.Henry (21)
Holmes (21)

Clark (19) and Dempsey (20) are speculative until they get more AFL experience but seem destined for the best 23. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Clark by the end of this year is offering us similar to what Selwood did in year 1 - which was already very, very useful output.

Neale (21) and Conway (20) should be permanent fixtures in the 2025 side.

Based on what you've said it seems Richmond are more likely to be good in 2024-2026 than thereafter. Otherwise you need some 23 and unders to have breakout seasons.

 

[Muddiemoose]

Which Richmond 23 and unders would you anticipate potentially playing important roles this or next year? Gibcus comes to mind but I'm not sure who else.

For us in 2024 it's:

De Koning (23)
Bruhn (22)
O.Henry (21)
Holmes (21)

Clark (19) and Dempsey (20) are speculative until they get more AFL experience but seem destined for the best 23. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Clark by the end of this year is offering us similar to what Selwood did in year 1 - which was already very, very useful output.

Neale (21) and Conway (20) should be permanent fixtures in the 2025 side.

Based on what you've said it seems Richmond are more likely to be good in 2024-2026 than thereafter. Otherwise you need some 23 and unders to have breakout seasons.

The big wraps and hopes are on Sonsie, Clarke, Banks and Brown

All could potentially make it

All are already in our best 25 and will all be best 22 by the end of the year imo

Right now Sonsie is the one who probably has the most work to do but still confident he will be a player

Based off last week Campbell looks like a promising goal sneak but haven’t really seen enough to make a confident call like I have on that other group

Few other vfl boys look alright but it’s hard to say as well

 

[Mr Meow]

The big wraps and hopes are on Sonsie, Clarke, Banks and Brown

All could potentially make it

All are already in our best 25 and will all be best 22 by the end of the year imo

Right now Sonsie is the one who probably has the most work to do but still confident he will be a player

Based off last week Campbell looks like a promising goal sneak but haven’t really seen enough to make a confident call like I have on that other group

Few other vfl boys look alright but it’s hard to say as well

This might seem harsh but it feels like there is really a need for only one of Grimes and Broad in their current states. Is McIntosh required at all? Pickett should've had a graceful goodbye and Prestia isn't essential now either. Short, Baker and Bolton can rotate through the guts.

That'd get valuable games into 4 more 23 and unders without weakening the team much.

FB: Broad Young Vlastuin
HB: Short Gibcus Rioli

C: Ross Martin Banks
FOL: Nankervis Hopper Taranto

HF: Bolton Kozzy MRJ
FF: Campbell Lynch Baker

IC: Brown Mansell Ryan Sonsie

 

[Muddiemoose]

This might seem harsh but it feels like there is really a need for only one of Grimes and Broad in their current states. Is McIntosh required at all? Pickett should've had a graceful goodbye and Prestia isn't essential now either. Short, Baker and Bolton can rotate through the guts.

That'd get valuable games into 4 more 23 and unders without weakening the team much.

FB: Broad Young Vlastuin
HB: Short Gibcus Rioli

C: Ross Martin Banks
FOL: Nankervis Hopper Taranto

HF: Bolton Kozzy MRJ
FF: Campbell Lynch Baker

IC: Brown Mansell Ryan Sonsie

Absolutely not harsh and echos what a lot of were saying last year and this year

Club needs to swallow its pride a little bit and make some hard calls to get some of these guys into the side over these older blokes

It’s obviously a balancing act because you don’t want to do it over one week with 3 or 4 kids thrown into the squad but it needs to happen all the same

Especially for the ones who are absolutely ready to step up

 

[Footy Smarts]

The big wraps and hopes are on Sonsie, Clarke, Banks and Brown

I was going to post how disappointed both clubs would be with that area of the 2021 draft at the moment.

Between picks 17 and 32 of that draft Richmond had 4 picks and Geelong 3. Barring a surprise by Geelong none of those players will play in either senior side this week.

For Richmond:

Brown - Full preseason. Looked ok in his one game. But into his 3rd year and still not been selected outside the final round dead rubber.
Sonsie - Suspended so time will tell. Showed a bit in his first year. But needs to bounce back from a horror 2nd year.
Clarke - I thought he showed a bit last year. Looks classy. Not sure why he hasn't got more of a look in.
Banks - Only one to get a game so far this year. Struggled and dropped.

For Geelong:
Conway - happy with his talent but injuries are a real worry. Needs to string games together.
Knevitt - showed glimpses last year but looked well off it in the practice match. Doubt he's close to selection.
Willis - no idea on his ability because he's barely got on the field in 2 years.

All of them could still make it. But as a group it looks disappointing right now considering they are 7 decent picks.

 

[Muddiemoose]

I was going to post how disappointed both clubs would be with that area of the 2021 draft at the moment.

Between picks 17 and 32 of that draft Richmond had 4 picks and Geelong 3. Barring a surprise by Geelong none of those players will play in either senior side this week.

For Richmond:

Brown - Full preseason. Looked ok in his one game. But into his 3rd year and still not been selected outside the final round dead rubber.
Sonsie - Suspended so time will tell. Showed a bit in his first year. But needs to bounce back from a horror 2nd year.
Clarke - I thought he showed a bit last year. Looks classy. Not sure why he hasn't got more of a look in.
Banks - Only one to get a game so far this year. Struggled and dropped.

For Geelong:
Conway - happy with his talent but injuries are a real worry. Needs to string games together.
Knevitt - showed glimpses last year but looked well off it in the practice match. Doubt he's close to selection.
Willis - no idea on his ability because he's barely got on the field in 2 years.

All of them could still make it. But as a group it looks disappointing right now considering they are 7 decent picks.

Especially when you see the likes of Rowell ripping the comp a new one and developing in leaps and bounds

It’s getting to that tipping point where they probably won’t develop as much playing in the vfl anymore and need some extended exposure at afl level to see if they will actually make it or not

 

[Footy Smarts]

Huge respect to Richmond tonight. There are some good and very proud players out there. Vlastuin, Nankervis and Balta (outside of his trademark couple of epic clangers) were outstanding. Fingers crossed Gibcus isn't as bad as feared.

 

[Mr Meow]

Huge respect to Richmond tonight. There are some good and very proud players out there. Vlastuin, Nankervis and Balta (outside of his trademark couple of epic clangers) were outstanding. Fingers crossed Gibcus isn't as bad as feared.

The thing is they had some 26 year olds play pretty good games (Baker, Taranto and Hopper) and one 25 year old play a great game (Balta). That's really it for the whole 18-26 year old bracket. And the quality was all on the very oldest part of that scale.

Dow was better this week but that's coming from a low bar. Then you had the two unfortunate injuries to young players, while Mansell, MRJ, Campbell, Ross and Bolton as a collective were poor.

Exciting? I'm not sure.

A Geelong equivalent would be O'Connor, Zuthrie and Miers having pretty good games. Holmes being great. SDK and J.Henry getting injured. Then Stengle, Close, Bruhn, O.Henry, Clark and Dempsey being poor as a collective. It could happen but it wouldn't be a game that would have me thinking the rebuild is going well.

 

[Footy Smarts]

The thing is they had some 26 year olds play pretty good games (Baker, Taranto and Hopper) and one 25 year old play a great game (Balta). That's really it for the whole 18-26 year old bracket. And the quality was all on the very oldest part of that scale.

Dow was better this week but that's coming from a low bar. Then you had the two unfortunate injuries to young players, while Mansell, MRJ, Campbell, Ross and Bolton as a collective were poor.

Exciting? I'm not sure.

A Geelong equivalent would be O'Connor, Zuthrie and Miers having pretty good games. Holmes being great. SDK and J.Henry getting injured. Then Stengle, Close, Bruhn, O.Henry, Clark and Dempsey being poor as a collective. It could happen but it wouldn't be a game that would have me thinking the rebuild is going well.

No it was the mature players who almost dragged them across the line against all the odds. But they'll be dangerous this year.

And if they can find some decently talented kids and maintain that sort of spirit they'll be ok in time.

 

[two blue tiger]

Both clubs with a plethora of their all time greats either retired or very close too. No matter who comes in, odds are stacked that the road will be bumpy. No doubting the Cats at the moment are much better placed for a finals appearance this year, but only in a "making up the numbers" manner.....