- Feb 9, 2015
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Given results at the time that make sense.
Must still be 0 now I guess.
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AFLW 2024 - Round 3 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
Analysis The Rebuilds of Geelong and Richmond and their Future Prospects
- Thread starter Taper
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Must still be 0 now I guess.
ChairmanZia
Club Legend
- Mar 11, 2024
- 2,026
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- North Melbourne
There will probably be a mad dash by aging clubs around 2028 to swap players to top picks from tasmania as they also seek to get in a lot of experienced players.
- Aug 18, 2018
- 30,110
- 50,459
- AFL Club
- Geelong
You keep coming to the well on this one.
The only club i can reveal doing this was Carlton with Tuohy ave that was both a colossal error and something they did after a decade of drafting
- May 5, 2016
- 45,108
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- Geelong
- May 5, 2016
- 45,108
- 50,408
- AFL Club
- Geelong
Just wondering what sort of score adjustments will be made for age? Like if we win a game, does 20 points get added to the opposition score?
Or do they adjust the ladder? Like do Richmond move out of bottom spot and we go down to 10th, for example, because of our demographic? Help me out here
Or do they adjust the ladder? Like do Richmond move out of bottom spot and we go down to 10th, for example, because of our demographic? Help me out here
Without checking, it feels like Geelong have had one of the oldest lists in the league since at least 2011. Probably half of those seasons in the top 2 oldest. We've had a few veterans retiring basically every season in that time.
Our age profile doesn't dip much because say you lose three 30+ year olds, well everyone else gets a year older. Then we do things like recruiting Menegola, Stewart, T.Kelly, Stengle and Mannagh in their mid 20s. All of them played/will play a lot of footy for Geelong but because they weren't 18 we haven't been "rebuilding the list". Those naughty Catters, even at the draft they are topping up with ready made players.
Free agents/trades come in and are basically always 25 or older. Dangerfield, Tuohy, Stanley, Henderson, Rohan, I.Smith, Cameron, Bowes et al. They refresh the list and most play 100+ games for Geelong, but they weren't 18 year olds so it's "poor list management - here comes the cliff". Sometimes they're cheeky and even get their youngsters after having a two year apprenticeship elsewhere - see Bruhn and O.Henry.
Don't even get me started on the misfits they pick up with rookie selections - Marck Blicavs, Jack Henry, Tom Atkins, Brad Close, Zach Guthrie.
As an outsider I can see how Geelong's approach to list management and its yearly promised cliffs can be frustrating. When will they gut the list and get 10 fresh faced 18 year olds to compete for the wooden spoon for 5 years? One day. Maybe...
- Feb 12, 2017
- 18,290
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Let's play a fill in the blanks game, it's a lot of fun!
Our example sentence:
'Despite finishing top 4, Geelong have unearthed some more exciting talented youngsters in Ollie Dempsey (rising star favourite) and Lawson Humphries'.
Now here's the part where you come in:
'Despite winning the wooden spoon and winning just two games for the season, Richmond have unearthed some equally exciting talented youngsters in ________________ & ________________.'
- Aug 18, 2018
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Last one as good as Dempsey was Bolton, who I am sure will be a great player for Richmond for years to comeHave Richmond managed to unearth any young players that have come on as well as Dempsey and Humphries have for Geelong in season 2024?
Obviously we're a top 4 team so we don't have as many spots to gift games to youngsters as the wooden spooners, so I expect Richmond to have found at least two new young guns as we managed to do.
- Feb 12, 2017
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With his contract running until 2028 Richmond supporters can surely keep banking on him to perform for their club well into the future.
- Jun 19, 2006
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The incredible thing is Geelong have still selected more players under 23 than Richmond this week.
I don't have a big issue with where O Henry sits in reality. But go back to this thread earlier where Cats were referring to him as a nailed on elite talent and follow the conversation from there, then you will understand why I am highlighting Henry.
- May 5, 2016
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Because most indicators have shown that he is on track to be that and if you’ve actually watched him this year - which any cats fan will tell you has been an ‘off’ year, you can see that it’s been a case of making some minor fixes and he probably could have been better again than he was last year or at least at the same level. He’s flying for more marks, seems to be putting his body on the line more etc etc but at the moment it’s not sticking and his kicking seems to have regressed a bit, I don’t mind saying that. But the kicking thing I think is fairly easily solvable and the marking will improve. He looks like a player who has tried to add more dimensions to his game and so far it hasn’t actually made him a better player or suited his game whereas if he just stayed put as a lead-out third forward he probably would have had a similar season to last year.
Our young contingent was decimated by injuries to Ross, Bauer, Rioli, Gibcus, Clarke, Fawcett, Gray. Of those who have had a decent run at it, Campbell has looked very promising and is still only 19. Ralphsmith is showing a bit as a fat winger, so isn't in the play much. Banks last half dozen games have been at a very good level. McAuliffe shows promise but at 19 is miles off having an AFL midfielder's tank. Brown has had a good season especially when you consider he is currently undergoing 3 operations, including one on each shoulder, which he carried from some point in the season. Green showed a bit in a couple of games but we need to see more before getting too excited. Dow and Cumberland will be lucky to avoid delisting, they are failed players from where I sit. Coulthard highly likely delisting, not shocked if he pops up at another club at some future point. Sonsie has had a disappointing year but is far from written off. Smith looks a fair way off it to me but it is his second season at the club and the first where he has actually played, and the club seems happy with him. Blight we need to see after a full pre-season. Ryan the jury is out, but the club appears to have seen something they like, because they have signed him for 3 more years. Trezise seems to be developing ok, won't be a world beater, may be along the lines of a Broad.
There is a lot of latent talent in our 23 and under group, I have said this before. We just don't appear to have gun inside mids or key forwards amongst them. But with a likely swathe of rd 1 picks in the 2024 draft that is highly likely about to change.
This is the way with so many youngsters. They get introduced to a good team with support around them and put into an easy role and look world beaters. Subsequently(as we have see with Cumberland) they get asked to contest, pressure, and run to AFL level and they suddenly look either also rans or just another young AFL player having to make their way. I said as much about Henry when plenty of your supporters were pointing to his "40 goal season" as evidence he is elite, or going to be.
- May 5, 2016
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Based on his per game output, even this season if you take out his two games where he came off the sub bench in the last term (and remove the goal he kicked in one of those games), a full 23 game season would still leave him with somewhere around 35 before finals.
That is because so many of our youngsters have had their seasons decimated by injury...Gibcus, Clarke, Rioli, Bauer, Fawcett, Brown, and also because the parameter is set to capture all of Geelong's young players. If we put it at games played by players who were younger than 21 at the start of the season:
Richmond 70
Geelong 28
- Jun 19, 2006
- 11,078
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Always best to fact check you. For Geelong the correct number is 125.
I guess those 13 extra games invested into under 23s makes up for a year of being utter trash. That'll definitely pay off. Especially when 17 of that games were invested in all-time potato Thomson Dow.
How bad must the rest of your kids be if Dow can get 17 games?
So from that I'm getting a Richmond top 6 for 2024 as: Campbell, Ralphsmith, Brown, Banks, Ryan and Trezise.
For Geelong: Holmes, Dempsey, SDK, Humphries, Neale and Bruhn.
O.Henry had a strong 2023 but a disappointing 2024. Clark needs to hit the gym and get 50 games under his belt, so the jury is out. Conway was very promising but his body is failing him so far, which is a concern.
Bruhn has missed 8 games through injury, had 4 at less than 50% game time (in-game knocks) and had some poor first-up return games. When he gets a continuous run at it he shows really good signs per minute played. Then the disruptions happen at a worrying rate. He needs to build a tank and do it at 80% game time in the years to come. This has still only been his second year of actually playing in midfield at AFL level.
With Neale he's still raw but 2.1 goals/assists a game is decent as a key forward playing his 6th-17th games of AFL.
The others on the list speak for themselves as having good-great years for youngsters.
Anyway Richmond need that handful of first round picks as a top 4 side shouldn't be displaying more impressive youth output than the wooden spooners.
35 goals in a full season is not many to kick if you are consistently playing as a deep forward and you play nearly every game, and you don't have much else to show for your season. He is low for disposals, tackles, pressure, score involvements, basically everything. A player as unremarkable as Rhyan Mansell for Richmond has had 75% of the scoreboard impact of Henry whilst playing in the lowest scoring team in a completely disfunctional forward line.
Richmond players 22 or younger as of now matches played 2024:
Dow 16
Ralphsmith 16
Banks 14
Sonsie 13
Brown 17
Campbell 19
Rioli 9
McAuliffe 8
Trezise 7
Green 6
Smith 3
Blight 3
Gibcus 2
Bauer 2
Clarke 1
Total 136
I was 1 game short. But you better get someone to fact check your fact checking in future.
There is nothing wrong with how the Geelong players in this specific age group are playing in 2024. But they are appearing to me as a decent array of B Grade talent with Holmes the only one that looks to be tracking above that level at this point. Neale looks one to keep an eye on, he could have some strong upside. But I am not seeing anything remarkable in the rest at this point. Some will no doubt come on, but that is the same for every club's youth, including Richmond's.
You are likely about to spend your next 2 rd 1 picks on Bailey Smith.
Richmond is about to take what looks like 8-9 round 1 picks across the next 2 drafts, probably 3 or 4 of which will be top 10 and a couple of those top 5 picks. So this is where the two roads are really going to diverge.
The other thing is when you list the top 23 & under performers from both clubs, the Geelong 6 ar roughly the top 6 by current trade value. The Richmond top 6 is nothing like that. Our top 6 by trade value would be more like Gibcus, Brown, Rioli, Banks, Campbell, maybe Ralphsmith or Ryan it is hard to say when you get past the first few. Our top 3 have missed 38 games between them this season. The corresponding figure for the Cats top 3 is 3 games missed.
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