Analysis The Rebuilds of Geelong and Richmond and their Future Prospects

[Footy Smarts]

Declare your hand then. How good is Brown going to be?

I honestly don't know.

He lacks any intensity in the contest and is a defensive liability at the moment. But he sometimes takes a nice mark and is a beautiful kick. He basically looks like early years Zach Guthrie without the defensive game.

It wouldn't shock me if it eventually clicks and he turns into a good player. But there's serious risk of him being a bust and delisted within a couple of years. I wouldn't give up a top 40 pick for him.

Compare him to Lawson Humphries who played a similar role. You'd think Brown was the late draftee given the major deficiencies in his game while Humphries looks like the early draftee maturing into a star. That's despite Brown having 3 years in the system while it's Humphries' first.

There's nothing particularly wrong with Tom Brown. He's so far been disappointing given his pick but still might come good. The fact you were convinced he was better than Holmes only a few months ago is very amusing. The fact he's one of Richmond's more promising kids is alarming.

 

[Andyy]

I honestly don't know.

He lacks any intensity in the contest and is a defensive liability at the moment. But he sometimes takes a nice mark and is a beautiful kick. He basically looks like early years Zach Guthrie without the defensive game.

It wouldn't shock me if it eventually clicks and he turns into a good player. But there's serious risk of him being a bust and delisted within a couple of years. I wouldn't give up a top 40 pick for him.

Compare him to Lawson Humphries who played a similar role. You'd think Brown was the late draftee given the major deficiencies in his game while Humphries looks like the early draftee maturing into a star. That's despite Brown having 3 years in the system while it's Humphries' first.

There's nothing particularly wrong with Tom Brown. He's so far been disappointing given his pick but still might come good. The fact you were convinced he was better than Holmes only a few months ago is very amusing. The fact he's one of Richmond's more promising kids is alarming.

Don't agree with your assessment personally.

He grew 6cm in the 1-2 years after being drafted. Clearly indicating that he needed some time to fill out to a size suitable for AFL games.

This year was a good year. Looked very decent down back, great mark, amazing by foot, and found the goals when moved forward.

I think he has a real future personally as a promising tall. Not sure which end he should be at - I think forward but plenty of other fans think back.


My only gripe is that I wanted JVR.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I honestly don't know.

He lacks any intensity in the contest and is a defensive liability at the moment. But he sometimes takes a nice mark and is a beautiful kick. He basically looks like early years Zach Guthrie without the defensive game.

It wouldn't shock me if it eventually clicks and he turns into a good player. But there's serious risk of him being a bust and delisted within a couple of years. I wouldn't give up a top 40 pick for him.

Compare him to Lawson Humphries who played a similar role. You'd think Brown was the late draftee given the major deficiencies in his game while Humphries looks like the early draftee maturing into a star. That's despite Brown having 3 years in the system while it's Humphries' first.

There's nothing particularly wrong with Tom Brown. He's so far been disappointing given his pick but still might come good. The fact you were convinced he was better than Holmes only a few months ago is very amusing. The fact he's one of Richmond's more promising kids is alarming.

You've made one solid statement there. You wouldn't give up a top 40 pick for Tom Brown. So let's bookmark that and see how well that ages.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Don't agree with your assessment personally.

He grew 6cm in the 1-2 years after being drafted. Clearly indicating that he needed some time to fill out to a size suitable for AFL games.

This year was a good year. Looked very decent down back, great mark, amazing by foot, and found the goals when moved forward.

I think he has a real future personally as a promising tall. Not sure which end he should be at - I think forward but plenty of other fans think back.


My only gripe is that I wanted JVR.

He will be a hybrid defender in the Vlastuin mould. He is a similar height(his listed height is wrong.)

Pretty sure they were mainly playing him forward just to help his education as a defender, they only moved him forard once his shoulders were knackered, knowing he would need operations on them anyway.

He needs to build a better tank. But if he does, he will be a very nice player. We can see he is a brilliant kick and a strong overhead mark.

 

[Andyy]

He will be a hybrid defender in the Vlastuin mould. He is a similar height(his listed height is wrong.)

Pretty sure they were mainly playing him forward just to help his education as a defender, they only moved him forard once his shoulders were knackered, knowing he would need operations on them anyway.

He needs to build a better tank. But if he does, he will be a very nice player. We can see he is a brilliant kick and a strong overhead mark.

He is listed as 193cm literally everywhere dude, and if you look at him on the ground I think he's comfortably around that height.

Personally I like him as a forward given his kicking is beautiful and he can take a mark.

I think we moved him forward because we had literally nobody else to play there aside from Kosi.

 

[Andyy]

He will be a hybrid defender in the Vlastuin mould. He is a similar height(his listed height is wrong.)

Pretty sure they were mainly playing him forward just to help his education as a defender, they only moved him forard once his shoulders were knackered, knowing he would need operations on them anyway.

He needs to build a better tank. But if he does, he will be a very nice player. We can see he is a brilliant kick and a strong overhead mark.

Wikipedia:


RFC official site:


ZeroHanger:



AFL Tables:


FootyWire:

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Wikipedia:
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RFC official site:
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ZeroHanger:
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AFL Tables:
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FootyWire:
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I think his listed height is wrong on all sites. Don't ask me why. I think I read jack Riewoldt saw that and scoffed and said there is no way Tom Brown is anywhere near 193cm(Jack's height.)

 

[Fadge]

That's even worse, half the list missed large chunks of the season and the youngsters still couldn't do F all. Fitzroy was in a better position in 1996 list wise than Richmond is right now.

Surely you realise they will have an 'enviable' hand at this year's draft table?

 

[Wojcinski]

Surely you realise they will have an 'enviable' hand at this year's draft table?

oh yeah thats right, the one single first rounder they get for Bolton will send shivers down the competitions spines. A couple of picks in the 20s for Baker and Rioli is just the epitome of a 2024 'warchest'

 

[Andyy]

I think his listed height is wrong on all sites. Don't ask me why. I think I read jack Riewoldt saw that and scoffed and said there is no way Tom Brown is anywhere near 193cm(Jack's height.)

Why not ask you why?

Any reference to Jack's comment?

He looks about Grimes' size to me when I'm at the games.

 

[PhatBoy]

Surely you realise they will have an 'enviable' hand at this year's draft table?

the magic tab ticket

 

[Footy Smarts]

Don't agree with your assessment personally.

He grew 6cm in the 1-2 years after being drafted. Clearly indicating that he needed some time to fill out to a size suitable for AFL games.

This year was a good year. Looked very decent down back, great mark, amazing by foot, and found the goals when moved forward.

I think he has a real future personally as a promising tall. Not sure which end he should be at - I think forward but plenty of other fans think back.


My only gripe is that I wanted JVR.

More than happy for you to be bullish on him. He shows flashes of genuine talent. By your 3rd year you'd like to see more and see AFL level intensity which was really lacking but he might still become a very good player.

But please tell me you don't think he's a better footballer than Max Holmes. Or that Richmond should be super excited by Brown, Sonsie, Banks, etc while Geelong should be concerned with how Holmes, Dempsey, Humphries, O Henry, etc are going.

 

[Andyy]

More than happy for you to be bullish on him. He shows flashes of genuine talent. By your 3rd year you'd like to see more and see AFL level intensity which was really lacking but he might still become a very good player.

But please tell me you don't think he's a better footballer than Max Holmes. Or that Richmond should be super excited by Brown, Sonsie, Banks, etc while Geelong should be concerned with how Holmes, Dempsey, Humphries, O Henry, etc are going.

Are you asking my opinion on that, or suggesting I have said it? Because I haven't.

I'm very annoyed that we didn't take JVR and also that you got Holmes with our pick that we traded you. Holmes is a gun.

To be honest I don't watch enough neutral footy anymore to be a great judge of some of the younger players at opposition teams (I find AFL much less an interesting spectacle these days).

As for the other RFC kids you listed in Sonsie + Banks; 2025 make it or delist by end of the year IMO, although I do think we have made the mistake of playing Sonsie in the mid VFL but HFF AFL.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Are you asking my opinion on that, or suggesting I have said it? Because I haven't. I'm very annoyed that we didn't take JVR and also that you got Holmes with our pick that we traded you. Holmes is a gun.

Early in the year Holmes was racking up coaches votes while Brown was struggling to hold his place. A certain Richmond poster who posts in here a lot said Brown was a better footballer at that point. I must admit I find that rather amusing.

That poster also likes going through and critiquing Geelong youngsters like Holmes (unlucky not to be AA), Dempsey (rising star), O Henry (huge in both finals), Humphries (looks a star already), etc while claiming Richmond's kids, not one of which could crack the top 10 in the B&F for the worst team in the comp, can't be judged.

You seem to be much more reasonable.

 

[Andyy]

Early in the year Holmes was racking up coaches votes while Brown was struggling to hold his place. A certain Richmond poster who posts in here a lot said Brown was a better footballer at that point. I must admit I find that rather amusing.

That poster also likes going through and critiquing Geelong youngsters like Holmes (unlucky not to be AA), Dempsey (rising star), O Henry (huge in both finals), Humphries (looks a star already), etc while claiming Richmond's kids, not one of which could crack the top 10 in the B&F for the worst team in the comp, can't be judged.

You seem to be much more reasonable.

Holmes is far better than Brown and anyone who suggests otherwise is spitting unadulterated trash.

I'd take all of the Cats you mentioned over every player we took in that draft (Gibcus, Brown, Sonsie, Banks or whoever etc).

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Why not ask you why?

Any reference to Jack's comment?

He looks about Grimes' size to me when I'm at the games.

Below is the 2023 squad photo. He had been listed at 193cm prior to this so we were all looking at this photo trying to figure it out. There may be discrepanicies due to footwear but this is only going to account for 1-2cm max. You can clearly see Brown is somewhere around his height at recruitment, 186cms, by comparing him to the players around him in this photo. If he was 193cm he would stand taller than Banks for example even if Banks had long stops on and Brown was in bare feet. But in this photo Brown is standing a good few cms below Banks(187) and Bauer(192) and McIntosh(191.)

It is highly likely Brown is either 186cms or has grown around 1-2 cm's since he was drafted. This photo shows there is no realistic way he is the 193cms he is currently listed at.

 

[sr36]

Henry's key home and away averages(approximate) in 2024, playing forward in the 3rd highest scoring team in the AFL, ranked 5 for inside 50's:

Disposals - 8.5
Cont poss - 4.3
Disp eff - 61%
Marks - 3
Cont marks - 0.7
Goals - 1.5
Assists - 0.6
Score involvements - 4.5
Tackles - 1.3
Offensive 1 v 1 win % - 27%
Pressure acts - 10

He was the 108th highest rated forward in the AFL. Fritsch was the 43rd highest rated forward in the AFL. Now bar the player rating, those are roughly Henry's home and away season averages without his 2 very good finals which would boost his season averags a little. But you were taking me to task on my saying he had a poor home and away season. I stand by that. Henry is a 22yo mid sized player in his 4th year in the AFL. He should have upside, but that return, notwithstanding his finals performances, is not great. It also represents a backwards step from the previous season.

4 goals in a prelim including 2 to put them in front with a few minutes to go is a fair effort.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

So Geelong, whose main deficiency this season was a shallow midfield, are going to bring in not one but two gun midfielders.

One of them a premiership player, the other a possible A-Grader or solid B-Grader at worst.

Are there any people here who still believe the 'salary cap' applies to all cubs equally?

The Cats are playing funny buggers right underneath the noses of AFL HQ and nobody says boo.

Good on the Geelong hierarchy, they run their club as well as, if not better than, anybody else not just in the AFL but all of Australian pro sports.

Good on them, I say.

But why are they being allowed to get away with this?

They'll go into 2025 odds-on to make the top 4, and should probably start favourites for the flag.

 

[Fadge]

4 goals in a prelim including 2 to put them in front with a few minutes to go is a fair effort.

Interesting that Meteoric Ruse is all about finals performances, until it's a discussion about a young Geelong player who had an influential final.

Then it's all about home and away performances (where Henry's 'stats' are relatively impressive for a young, mid sized forward anyway).

Oh my.

 

[Fadge]

So Geelong, whose main deficiency this season was a shallow midfield, are going to bring in not one but two gun midfielders.

One of them a premiership player, the other a possible A-Grader or solid B-Grader at worst.

Are there any people here who still believe the 'salary cap' applies to all cubs equally?

The Cats are playing funny buggers right underneath the noses of AFL HQ and nobody says boo.

Good on the Geelong hierarchy, they run their club as well as, if not better than, anybody else not just in the AFL but all of Australian pro sports.

Good on them, I say.

But why are they being allowed to get away with this?

They'll go into 2025 odds-on to make the top 4, and should probably start favourites for the flag.

Are you suggesting they should have a lesser salary cap than other clubs?

We are in 2024, and all clubs' financial statements are audited and approved by the appropriate hierarchies.

 

[PhatBoy]

So Geelong, whose main deficiency this season was a shallow midfield, are going to bring in not one but two gun midfielders.

One of them a premiership player, the other a possible A-Grader or solid B-Grader at worst.

Are there any people here who still believe the 'salary cap' applies to all cubs equally?

The Cats are playing funny buggers right underneath the noses of AFL HQ and nobody says boo.

Good on the Geelong hierarchy, they run their club as well as, if not better than, anybody else not just in the AFL but all of Australian pro sports.

Good on them, I say.

But why are they being allowed to get away with this?

They'll go into 2025 odds-on to make the top 4, and should probably start favourites for the flag.

Does it apply to Carlton?

Clearly none of us are privy to what every player gets paid but Geelong by any definition have what you would call 3 absolute ‘stars.’ Dangerfield, Cameron, Stewart. One is 34 already, the others will be 32 at the start of next season.

Our next best player is Max Holmes who probably luckily for us signed his last contract BEFORE the season he just had where he was in the all Australian squad.

Tyson Stengle would round out the top 5 and reportedly signed his last contract for $700k which would be more than what Holmes is getting as a then 21 year old who had never won a premiership or been named in an AA squad or team.

Over at Carlton they have a two time Brownlow medalist leading their midfield, Walsh who was AA at 21 years old, three Coleman’s from the last four years who are both 26-27 years of age, two All Australian defenders. That’s just one example. Seems to me it’s ok for our no name side to be highlighted at every turn when people wants to take the piss out of it.

On top of all of this:

Oliver is for all intents and purposes an unknown quantity - I doubt if this was any other club if there would be as much being said. The sentiment would be a lot more skewed towards ‘well shit that’s a big risk given how far he’s fallen.’ Because let’s be real, his best would be a HUGE asset, but how likely is it that he will produce it?

Smith has never made an AA team, he’s a player with a lot of talent and potential but again this is based on what MIGHT happen

 

[Footy Smarts]

And in a short 13 months this thread has gone full circle from "Geelong's only good players are about to retire and they're certain to fall off a cliff" to "Geelong's list is so good they must be cheating the salary cap".

 

[STPer18]

Does it apply to Carlton?

Clearly none of us are privy to what every player gets paid but Geelong by any definition have what you would call 3 absolute ‘stars.’ Dangerfield, Cameron, Stewart. One is 34 already, the others will be 32 at the start of next season.

Our next best player is Max Holmes who probably luckily for us signed his last contract BEFORE the season he just had where he was in the all Australian squad.

Tyson Stengle would round out the top 5 and reportedly signed his last contract for $700k which would be more than what Holmes is getting as a then 21 year old who had never won a premiership or been named in an AA squad or team.

Over at Carlton they have a two time Brownlow medalist leading their midfield, Walsh who was AA at 21 years old, three Coleman’s from the last four years who are both 26-27 years of age, two All Australian defenders. That’s just one example. Seems to me it’s ok for our no name side to be highlighted at every turn when people wants to take the piss out of it.

On top of all of this:

Oliver is for all intents and purposes an unknown quantity - I doubt if this was any other club if there would be as much being said. The sentiment would be a lot more skewed towards ‘well shit that’s a big risk given how far he’s fallen.’ Because let’s be real, his best would be a HUGE asset, but how likely is it that he will produce it?

Smith has never made an AA team, he’s a player with a lot of talent and potential but again this is based on what MIGHT happen

You're forgetting failed defender, failed midfielder Zac Williams signing a $5M 6-year deal. Would be close to Geelong's top earner behind Cameron.

“Not going to work out”: Will Carlton's Zac Williams investment cost them?

Would Carlton now be worried about their six-year investment in Zac Williams?

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