Prediction Walking the tightrope - The Run Home

[RW]

If we do make top 4 that would be just an unbelievable achievement. We'll already be setting a record as no team who started 0 - 5 has made finals and we started 0 - 6. What a turnaround.

For us to finish top 4 we need the following to happen:

We must win our last 3 games
Geelong to beat Richmond and GWS (both at Kardinia Park, so possible)
Bulldogs to beat GWS at Docklands and Port in Ballarat (both possible)

That will give us 56 points, the same as GWS and Richmond, but we currently have the best percentage of the three, so there is a small chance we could finish as high as 3rd, which would be quite incredible!

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

I probably should of worded it better but when you have Brandon Jack, James Rose, Garry Rohan combining for 17 disposals its like playing with 3 men down the whole game.

 

[Kirkswan]

For us to finish top 4 we need the following to happen:

We must win our last 3 games
Geelong to beat Richmond and GWS (both at Kardinia Park, so possible)
Bulldogs to beat GWS at Docklands and Port in Ballarat (both possible)

That will give us 56 points, the same as GWS and Richmond, but we currently have the best percentage of the three, so there is a small chance we could finish as high as 3rd, which would be quite incredible!

You just became my favourite mod!!!!

 

[The King!]

You just became my favourite mod!!!!

Who fell to second

 

[swansfan51]

You just became my favourite mod!!!!

 

[Kennedy Parker]

For us to finish top 4 we need the following to happen:

We must win our last 3 games
Geelong to beat Richmond and GWS (both at Kardinia Park, so possible)
Bulldogs to beat GWS at Docklands and Port in Ballarat (both possible)

That will give us 56 points, the same as GWS and Richmond, but we currently have the best percentage of the three, so there is a small chance we could finish as high as 3rd, which would be quite incredible!

There's an easier and more likely way for us to make 4th. Geelong are smashed with injuries and suspensions, assuming we win all our games we want them to lose 2 out of 3 (GWS and Richmond are both in better form, Collingwood is their bogey team). I think they'll lose all three.
We need Port to win one less than us (they could drop Western Bulldogs).

That would leave us 4th on 56, Geelong 5th on 54, Port 6th on 52.

 

[Kapanis]

This thread, when you read back shows how utterly ridiculous we all are at predicting anything. At the end of the year, month, week or day we are just supporters supporting our team; what a year, go swannies.

 

[RW]

This thread, when you read back shows how utterly ridiculous we all are at predicting anything. At the end of the year, month, week or day we are just supporters supporting our team; what a year, go swannies.

That's why I didn't make a prediction

 

[Kapanis]

That's why I didn't make a prediction

Yes, me neither, gold RW.

 

[Kirkswan]

Who fell to second

Previously, I liked them all equally for their diversity. But anyone who can find a way for us to finish 3rd after owen6, well that's a standout! At least for a little while...

Knowing absolutely nothing about any of them, I think of them like this:
swansfan51 is the 'professor' of the group, comes in with a few facts when we are on a runaway train of theories or fantasies, shares knowledge (trading, team structuring, etc);
RW is 'Officer Friendly', passionate, involved in most discussions, capable of a rant now and then, but no hesitation in putting the foot down when required;
scaryness is the 'Historian', keeper of our POTY, pops up with historical facts/events to correct and/or redirect discussions, seems to know a lot about the Swans and a fair bit about everyone else, and likes to discuss it all.
Cloud is too new yet, but I will no doubt cast him a role at some point.

Fwiw, I have Grimlock in the role of statistician, and Klim in the role of IT Expert! LOL

I really hope none of you are offended, I think you all do an outstanding job and am grateful too you for your time and effort.

 

[BruceFromBalnarring]

We'll out-brave the bravedogs and win the flag from 7th after the pre-finals bye. Mark it down.

Moderator has his pants on fire.

 

[The Gong]

There's an easier and more likely way for us to make 4th. Geelong are smashed with injuries and suspensions, assuming we win all our games we want them to lose 2 out of 3 (GWS and Richmond are both in better form, Collingwood is their bogey team). I think they'll lose all three.
We need Port to win one less than us (they could drop Western Bulldogs).

That would leave us 4th on 56, Geelong 5th on 54, Port 6th on 52.

This is the scenario I think is more likely.

 

[miggs]

Previously, I liked them all equally for their diversity. But anyone who can find a way for us to finish 3rd after owen6, well that's a standout! At least for a little while...

Knowing absolutely nothing about any of them, I think of them like this:
swansfan51 is the 'professor' of the group, comes in with a few facts when we are on a runaway train of theories or fantasies, shares knowledge (trading, team structuring, etc);
RW is 'Officer Friendly', passionate, involved in most discussions, capable of a rant now and then, but no hesitation in putting the foot down when required;
scaryness is the 'Historian', keeper of our POTY, pops up with historical facts/events to correct and/or redirect discussions, seems to know a lot about the Swans and a fair bit about everyone else, and likes to discuss it all.
Cloud is too new yet, but I will no doubt cast him a role at some point.

Fwiw, I have Grimlock in the role of statistician, and Klim in the role of IT Expert! LOL

I really hope none of you are offended, I think you all do an outstanding job and am grateful too you for your time and effort.

*ahem*

 

[momentbymoment]

Injuries and form are more important than a top 4 position. It can fall apart very quickly as Geelong is experiencing.

 

[Tuco]

Yeah the defence was reduced to just Lloyd, Mills, Grundy, Melican, Smith, Newman and Jones. IE our entire 1st choice defence minus Rampe.

Sinclair was playing, who is apparently our best ruckman. The midfield was playing, plus Parker and Hannebery and Heeney and Cunningham and Hewett.

The forward line had Franklin, Reid, Papley, and Hayward - all of our top 4 goalscorers for the year. And our #5 goalscorer, Rohan, played more than half the match.

All true.

But names on a teamsheet doesn't really tell the story.

We were putrid back then. Confidence was terrible. Those same players with confidence now are nothing like what they were in 0-6 mode.

We had no run. No forward 50 defence. No answer to an uncontested marking game as yet.

Like Collingwood, like GWS thry just circled around us with a marking game while we bombed to no one.

Reid was played out of position.

Kizza played injured and could barely jog.

Smith was in a horrible rut.

Rampe was out. Laidler was in..

Rohan got injured after contributing only 2 possessions.

We had no number 1 ruck. Reid got more hitouts than Sinclair that day. Tippo and Sam were out injured. And Sinkers will never be that #1. This means Reid had to offer ruck support taking him out of his forward position.

Dysfuntional forward line = Docherty 39 possessions.

We played Rose who was non-existent.

Our run diminished late as players like Papley and Heeney slowed to a crawl due to their limited prep.

Plus it has to be remembered Carlton's coach is an ex Hawk who uses the same Hawks plan they dismember us with on a regular basis.

If we don't respect them next time I'll heave.

 

[SwansProudly]

All true.

But names on a teamsheet doesn't really tell the story.

We were putrid back then. Confidence was terrible. Those same players with confidence now are nothing like what they were in 0-6 mode.

We had no run. No forward 50 defence. No answer to an uncontested marking game as yet.

Like Collingwood, like GWS thry just circled around us with a marking game while we bombed to no one.

Reid was played out of position.

Kizza played injured and could barely jog.

Smith was in a horrible rut.

Rampe was out. Laidler was in..

Rohan got injured after contributing only 2 possessions.

We had no number 1 ruck. Reid got more hitouts than Sinclair that day. Tippo and Sam were out injured. And Sinkers will never be that #1. This means Reid had to offer ruck support taking him out of his forward position.

Dysfuntional forward line = Docherty 39 possessions.

We played Rose who was non-existent.

Our run diminished late as players like Papley and Heeney slowed to a crawl due to their limited prep.

Plus it has to be remembered Carlton's coach is an ex Hawk who uses the same Hawks plan they dismember us with on a regular basis.

If we don't respect them next time I'll heave.

Enjoyed your post
There was no run - no players running past to support thier mates. No players running free to accept a non-contested mark.

 

[brad cooper]

Enjoyed your post
There was no run - no players running past to support thier mates. No players running free to accept a non-contested mark.

In fairness Sinclair worked his way into a position to take an uncontested mark but he dropped it.

 

[sataris]

Previously, I liked them all equally for their diversity. But anyone who can find a way for us to finish 3rd after owen6, well that's a standout! At least for a little while...

Knowing absolutely nothing about any of them, I think of them like this:
swansfan51 is the 'professor' of the group, comes in with a few facts when we are on a runaway train of theories or fantasies, shares knowledge (trading, team structuring, etc);
RW is 'Officer Friendly', passionate, involved in most discussions, capable of a rant now and then, but no hesitation in putting the foot down when required;
scaryness is the 'Historian', keeper of our POTY, pops up with historical facts/events to correct and/or redirect discussions, seems to know a lot about the Swans and a fair bit about everyone else, and likes to discuss it all.
Cloud is too new yet, but I will no doubt cast him a role at some point.

Fwiw, I have Grimlock in the role of statistician, and Klim in the role of IT Expert! LOL

I really hope none of you are offended, I think you all do an outstanding job and am grateful too you for your time and effort.

Interesting.

Consider yourself dropped for the match against the bye.

 

[GotTheGoodes]

Previously, I liked them all equally for their diversity. But anyone who can find a way for us to finish 3rd after owen6, well that's a standout! At least for a little while...

Knowing absolutely nothing about any of them, I think of them like this:
swansfan51 is the 'professor' of the group, comes in with a few facts when we are on a runaway train of theories or fantasies, shares knowledge (trading, team structuring, etc);
RW is 'Officer Friendly', passionate, involved in most discussions, capable of a rant now and then, but no hesitation in putting the foot down when required;
scaryness is the 'Historian', keeper of our POTY, pops up with historical facts/events to correct and/or redirect discussions, seems to know a lot about the Swans and a fair bit about everyone else, and likes to discuss it all.
Cloud is too new yet, but I will no doubt cast him a role at some point.

Fwiw, I have Grimlock in the role of statistician, and Klim in the role of IT Expert! LOL

I really hope none of you are offended, I think you all do an outstanding job and am grateful too you for your time and effort.

..... And Bedders?

 

[Angry Red Bull]

There's an easier and more likely way for us to make 4th. Geelong are smashed with injuries and suspensions, assuming we win all our games we want them to lose 2 out of 3 (GWS and Richmond are both in better form, Collingwood is their bogey team). I think they'll lose all three.
We need Port to win one less than us (they could drop Western Bulldogs).

That would leave us 4th on 56, Geelong 5th on 54, Port 6th on 52.

We are now only 5% different to Port now. If we outperform them to overtake that 5% we could finish level on points but be ahead still.

 

[anotherletdown]

Big game this one. We should be thinking percentage booster. I'm not a fan of top 4 and a second week off if you win but I'm equally not a fan of coming up against the Dogs or Essendon in a do-or-die match if we finish 5th or 6th. We need to bank some percentage and take plenty of momentum into the Adelaide game as that's the key to finishing top 4.

I like the look of the games this week. 1v8, 2v7 and 3v4. This is our time to make hay!

 

[caesar88]

I'd love a crack at Adelaide away 1st week of the finals. They'd have all the pressure on them after finishing on top and we play the ground really well.

I'd actually rather this scenario but with us losing to Adelaide in Adelaide. They're the best team in it IMO, so if they get the week off after a win they'll be rusty as **** come prelims time. If we lost to Adelaide, then we'd have a semi final at the SCG which would help us get to at least the preliminary final.

That's the dream scenario anyway lol

 

[The King!]

*ahem*

The peoples mod left off the list

 

[DeadlyAkkuret]

I'd actually rather this scenario but with us losing to Adelaide in Adelaide. They're the best team in it IMO, so if they get the week off after a win they'll be rusty as **** come prelims time. If we lost to Adelaide, then we'd have a semi final at the SCG which would help us get to at least the preliminary final.

That's the dream scenario anyway lol

No way is losing the first final a "dream scenario".

 

[caesar88]

No way is losing the first final a "dream scenario".

I would be content if it ultimately led to something greater. IMO losing last year's QF was more beneficial for us because it gave us a side of the draw that included Adelaide and Geelong, rather than Hawthorn and the Bulldogs (who we ended up playing anyway.) I'm just saying sometimes it can create more opportunities for a team to do well in the finals, so sometimes losing a final isn't such a bad thing if you have the second chance. I'd always want the boys to give their absolute all in any game though.