Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 4 - thread rules updated

[Gethelred]

This is the thread for discussing the War in Ukraine. Should you want to discuss the geopolitics, the history, or an interesting tangent, head over here:

Europe - Backdrop to the war in Ukraine

This is the thread for the geopolitics, history and framework around the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If you want to discuss the events of the war, head over to this thread: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/war-in-ukraine-thread-4-thread-rules-updated.1376293/page-146

www.bigfooty.com

If a post isn't directly concerning the events of the war or starts to derail the thread, report the post to us and we'll move it over there.

Seeing as multiple people seem to have forgotten, abuse is against the rules of BF. Continuous, page long attacks directed at a single poster in this thread will result in threadbans for a week from this point; doing so again once you have returned will make the bans permanent and will be escalated to infractions.

This thread still has misinformation rules, and occasionally you will be asked to demonstrate a claim you have made by moderation. If you cannot, you will be offered the opportunity to amend the post to reflect that it's opinion, to remove the post, or you will be threadbanned and infracted for sharing misinformation.

Addendum: from this point, use of any variant of the word 'orc' to describe combatants, politicians or russians in general will be deleted and the poster will receive a warning. If the behaviour continues, it will be escalated. Consider this fair warning.

Finally: If I see the word Nazi or Hitler being flung around, there had better have a good faith basis as to how it's applicable to the Russian invasion - as in, video/photographic evidence of POW camps designed to remove another ethnic group - or to the current Ukrainian army. If this does not occur, you will be threadbanned for posting off topic

This is a sensitive area, and I understand that this makes for fairly incensed conversation sometimes. This does not mean the rules do not apply, whether to a poster positing a Pro-Ukraine stance or a poster positing an alternative view.

Behave, people.

 

[Zidane98]

I'd love to see barreness explain why Russia needs military assistance from Belarus...

 

[wannabejack]

I'd love to see barreness explain why Russia needs military assistance from Belarus...

Who's "begging" now.

 

[CD Xbow]

Warzone have an update suggesting the incursion is growing.

Ukraine Eyeing Expansion Of Kursk Invasion Despite Russian Reinforcements

Despite Russian efforts to contain Ukraine's eight-day-old invasion of Kursk, Kyiv's forces are still seeking ways to capture more territory.

www.twz.com

Also read somewhere Putin is asking for an informal meeting of the UN security council. It will be interesting to see what he has to say.

 

[Zidane98]

Warzone have an update suggesting the incursion is growing.

Ukraine Eyeing Expansion Of Kursk Invasion Despite Russian Reinforcements

Despite Russian efforts to contain Ukraine's eight-day-old invasion of Kursk, Kyiv's forces are still seeking ways to capture more territory.

www.twz.com

Also read somewhere Putin is asking for an informal meeting of the UN security council. It will be interesting to see what he has to say.

Could be him finally calling it quits

 

[Zidane98]

Who's "begging" now.

Clearly Belarus are fighting Ukraine to the last Russian.

 

[CD Xbow]

Video from OSW about the Russian

Could be him finally calling it quits

Could be him threatening nuclear war, or anything in between.

I saw this video from OSW who look at Russian attitudes and response to the Kursk incursion.



Russians are hopeless. "Putin, Putin please help", do these dills think he cares? The evacuation was utterly disorganised and the civilians left to fend for themselves.

 

[Zidane98]

Video from OSW about the Russian

Could be him threatening nuclear war, or anything in between.

I saw this video from OSW who look at Russian attitudes and response to the Kursk incursion.



Russians are hopeless. "Putin, Putin please help", do these dills think he cares? The evacuation was utterly disorganised and the civilians left to fend for themselves.

Everyone knows his nuclear threats are hollow. Besides, what is he going to do - nuke his own people in Kursk?


Whatever the reason for any alleged meeting with the UN it definitely won't be to deliver a nuclear threat - real or implied.


If I were the UN I would agree to a meeting - on the basis that it is held in The Hague.

 

[jatz14]

It's horrific. All for stupid Putin's ego and dreams of empire. Large numbers of folks around the world still admire the bloody moron.

No, Chief, I don't think so. The Kursk incursion seems to be ongoing, but there is a bit of official messaging saying they don't want to hold the land, what ever that means.

Couple of things. First, I think they are morally distancing themselves from Russia here.

Making it clear that this incursion is a military manoeuvre between 2 countries at war, and not part of some attempt to permanently claim part of Russia.

Second, Russians have been fed the line that they have a great mitary, hence, the, we are fighting NATO schtick to explain to it's people why they haven't won yet. But clearly, it's not NATO in Kursk, it isn't even a very large force. There is no real way for Putin to reconcile these things, Russia is mighty, Ukraine is weak, victory is inevitable. Hard to sell if the weak are stiing on 1000+ square Ks of your territory for ontjs on end, and you cannot kick them out.

Third, it's pretty clear the troops they had guarding that border are woefully not up to the job of fighting experienced Ukrainian units. By reports, they are already rushing units there, that are also under strength and probably inadequate.
They will need to move experienced and capable units there, and all of those are in Ukraine.

My prediction is, they build strong defences, have Russia waste thousands of troops and dozens of bits of hardware throwing themselves at them, then when it looks like it's getting too got, pull out.

And is Russia going to be able to move those forces back to Ukraine? Or are they going to have to stay?

Bad look for Putin if after kicking Ukraine out, he sends his troops back to Ukraine, and Ukraine just crosses the border again.

On SM-A346E using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[wannabejack]

Ukrainian Jets Join The Invasion Of Russia’s Kursk Oblast
The Ukrainian jet reportedly struck a Russian command post in Tetkino, a few miles north of the front line in Kursk. Notably, the raid was apparently conducted by an aging, ex-Soviet Sukhoi Su-27—and not one of Ukraine’s recently-supplied ex-Danish Lockheed Martin F-16s.

 

[Seeds]

Couple of things. First, I think they are morally distancing themselves from Russia here.

Making it clear that this incursion is a military manoeuvre between 2 countries at war, and not part of some attempt to permanently claim part of Russia.

Second, Russians have been fed the line that they have a great mitary, hence, the, we are fighting NATO schtick to explain to it's people why they haven't won yet. But clearly, it's not NATO in Kursk, it isn't even a very large force. There is no real way for Putin to reconcile these things, Russia is mighty, Ukraine is weak, victory is inevitable. Hard to sell if the weak are stiing on 1000+ square Ks of your territory for ontjs on end, and you cannot kick them out.

Third, it's pretty clear the troops they had guarding that border are woefully not up to the job of fighting experienced Ukrainian units. By reports, they are already rushing units there, that are also under strength and probably inadequate.
They will need to move experienced and capable units there, and all of those are in Ukraine.

My prediction is, they build strong defences, have Russia waste thousands of troops and dozens of bits of hardware throwing themselves at them, then when it looks like it's getting too got, pull out.

And is Russia going to be able to move those forces back to Ukraine? Or are they going to have to stay?

Bad look for Putin if after kicking Ukraine out, he sends his troops back to Ukraine, and Ukraine just crosses the border again.

On SM-A346E using BigFooty.com mobile app

Taking russian land works as a negotiating chip to get their own land back and spread the russian military thinner.

If the war was only ever in ukraine then ukraine could never take all their land back through negotiation.

 

[Zidane98]

Taking russian land works as a negotiating chip to get their own land back and spread the russian military thinner.

If the war was only ever in ukraine then ukraine could never take all their land back through negotiation.

Putin is very fortunate Finland is a NATO member right now as this precludes Finland invading Karelia and returning it to Finnish rule.

Likewise with Poland and any desire to take back Kalingrad from the Russians. It would be quite easy for either state to do this right now with the state of Russian armed forces.

 

[Syd]

Putin is very fortunate Finland is a NATO member right now as this precludes Finland invading Karelia and returning it to Finnish rule.

Likewise with Poland and any desire to take back Kalingrad from the Russians. It would be quite easy for either state to do this right now with the state of Russian armed forces.

No it does not.

It does mean that NATO do not have to respond if Russia invaded Finland after they started the aggression.

NATO States can (and often do) act independently Militarily.

 

[Zidane98]

No it does not.

It does mean that NATO do not have to respond if Russia invaded Finland after they started the aggression.

NATO States can (and often do) act independently Militarily.

They do, but an invasion isn't going to happen without collective authorisation. Ukraine wouldn't be invading Russia if it were a NATO member.

 

[jatz14]

Taking russian land works as a negotiating chip to get their own land back and spread the russian military thinner.

If the war was only ever in ukraine then ukraine could never take all their land back through negotiation.

Announcing up front that you aren't keeping the land completely undermines that though.

It also means they would need to hold onto it until and during negotiations.

This risks Russia doing to them what they are doing to Russia. Russia gets to eventually surround the area with drones and artillery and turn it into an area Ukraine sends units to die.

And if holding it is your goal, and you don't, then your defeated. Russia gets to boast. Just leave.

On SM-A346E using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Zidane98]

 

[Smeg Head]

They would be well advised to just heavily mine the entire area before pulling out, help provide a buffer for future russian troop movements at that border for a time

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

They would be well advised to just heavily mine the entire area before pulling out, help provide a buffer for future russian troop movements at that border for a time

This is what I imagine will happen. Hold the area until it becomes too costly then mine the absolute crap out of the area to tie up Russian resources. It will then need to be defended by more Russian troops which would benefit Ukraine.

 

[Aussie in exile]

"We entered Russia easily" say Ukrainian troops.

Ukrainian troops 'entered Russia's Kursk easily'

Ukrainian troops who entered Russia's Kursk this past week say they took the Russians by surprise.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Jello_B]

It’s a remarkable story really what is happening now. Cannot be anything other than supportive of what Ukraine is doing.
I really hope that it jabs some positive impact on a finish to this nonsense. Pessimistic me says it won’t make one difference to Russia and they will keep going

 

[Mobbs]

FreeKherson channel gives another update:

 

[Seeds]

They do, but an invasion isn't going to happen without collective authorisation. Ukraine wouldn't be invading Russia if it were a NATO member.

But ukraine would have no need to invade russia if it was a part of NATO because Russia would never have invaded in the first place.

 

[Zidane98]

But ukraine would have no need to invade russia if it was a part of NATO because Russia would never have invaded in the first place.

Exactly the reason why Russia should be happy if Ukraine joins NATO!

 

[Zidane98]

Wonder if Mobbs can confirm - apparently Medvedevs estate is located in Kursk:



Could make for a decent Ukranian fort / military base if captured

 

[Mobbs]

"In Karachay-Cherkessia, they increased a one-time payment for those who are ready to go to war. They are promised to pay up to 1.6 million rubles
Those signed a contract with the Ministry of Defense in the republic will receive two million rubles, said the head of the region Rashid Temrezov. According to him, 1.6 million of them will be paid by the regional authorities. Another 400 thousand — a federal payment, doubled by Vladimir Putin.
Until the last increase, residents of the republic received 1.3 million rubles from the regional budget for a contract with the Ministry of Defense. This payment was introduced only in June, previously contractors were paid only 100 thousand rubles.
Now Karachayevo-Cherkessia ranks second in terms of payments for signing a contract with the Ministry of Defense. Only the military in Moscow receives more - 1.9 million rubles. In Moscow region and Stavropol, they offer 1.5 million rubles for sending to war in Ukraine, the publication "7x7" notes."

From Novaya Gazeta Facebook

Новая газета Европа | Riga

Новая газета Европа, Рига. 4,654 likes · 731 talking about this. Independent media outlet covering Russia and Europe.

www.facebook.com

 

[Mobbs]

Wonder if Mobbs can confirm - apparently Medvedevs estate is located in Kursk:



Could make for a decent Ukranian fort / military base if captured

I don't know if its true about him having a family estate there, though its certainly mentioned a lot in media now with the inkurskion.

If true, no need to level it. I'm sure it's already stripped of any sharp rises and inclines so that Medvedev can walk around it pissed as a newt without tripping over too often!