Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 4 - thread rules updated

[Gethelred]

This is the thread for discussing the War in Ukraine. Should you want to discuss the geopolitics, the history, or an interesting tangent, head over here:

Europe - Backdrop to the war in Ukraine

This is the thread for the geopolitics, history and framework around the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If you want to discuss the events of the war, head over to this thread: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/war-in-ukraine-thread-4-thread-rules-updated.1376293/page-146

www.bigfooty.com

If a post isn't directly concerning the events of the war or starts to derail the thread, report the post to us and we'll move it over there.

Seeing as multiple people seem to have forgotten, abuse is against the rules of BF. Continuous, page long attacks directed at a single poster in this thread will result in threadbans for a week from this point; doing so again once you have returned will make the bans permanent and will be escalated to infractions.

This thread still has misinformation rules, and occasionally you will be asked to demonstrate a claim you have made by moderation. If you cannot, you will be offered the opportunity to amend the post to reflect that it's opinion, to remove the post, or you will be threadbanned and infracted for sharing misinformation.

Addendum: from this point, use of any variant of the word 'orc' to describe combatants, politicians or russians in general will be deleted and the poster will receive a warning. If the behaviour continues, it will be escalated. Consider this fair warning.

Finally: If I see the word Nazi or Hitler being flung around, there had better have a good faith basis as to how it's applicable to the Russian invasion - as in, video/photographic evidence of POW camps designed to remove another ethnic group - or to the current Ukrainian army. If this does not occur, you will be threadbanned for posting off topic

This is a sensitive area, and I understand that this makes for fairly incensed conversation sometimes. This does not mean the rules do not apply, whether to a poster positing a Pro-Ukraine stance or a poster positing an alternative view.

Behave, people.

 

[barreness]

No, you're just cheering on the abuser.

Revenge? Like, they might bomb more hospitals or rape more kids?

Rape kids? kinda dicey accusation

But yeh, that's what I meant. There will be more war crimes because this sets back a peace process

 

[Present Not Past]

Rape kids? kinda dicey accusation

But yeh, that's what I meant. There will be more war crimes because this sets back a peace process

LOL.

 

[barreness]

A ceasefire is exactly as it sounds, a cessation of conflict with an agreed date of renewed hostilities.

Sometimes they last for decades

Ukraine doesn't need that.
Ukraine needs and wants an unconditional surrender of Russian occupied Ukrainian territory.

How exactly are they going to achieve that

 

[Visions]

Taking down a Shahed drone from a chopper.

 

[Zidane98]

Sometimes they last for decades

How exactly are they going to achieve that

Russia won't last more than 2-3 more years as a parish state.

Putin has no plans for replacing western technology. The average Russian won't accept being banned from FIFA, IOC, IATA etc etc for ever. All the rich vatniks (the ones that Putin relies on for support) have much of their wealth tied up in western states and love their holidays / shopping trips to the west.

It's a safe bet that the longer this drags on for Putin the worse it gets for Russia. This war won't last for decades. It's got 2 years max left before Putin either gives up or is denazified by fellow Russians.

Face it Putin has lost. Hopefully we can fast forward to the part where he dies alone in his bunker.

 

[jatz14]

Sometimes they last for decades

How exactly are they going to achieve that

Make Russia care about other things more.

Like the economy, like destruction of infrastructure, like loss of their territory, like a continually rising death rate beginning to stir discontent in Russia.

Thats how. Make Russia care about ending the war more than they care about taking Ukrainian territory. I dont even suggest that Ukraine adopt a, not one inch of Ukrainian soil, stance.

Russian millbloggers are starting to get worried. They are noticing that there is a large amount of military assets Ukraine has, that ARENT involved in the Kursk incursion. So, they are starting to think the end goal here is, grind away at an area in Russia, that doesn't have the prepared defences located, until Russia is forced to commit more and more forces, then hit somewhere else, like Crimea.

You can even think of it as a dry run. Ukraine is able to effectively isolate large pockets of Russian troops, by cutting the river crossings behind them.

They can do that in Crimea too.

Would that work do you think? Negotiate peace, taking our terms into account, or lose Crimea.

All it needs is a something for you, something for us stance, and a negotiated settlement is possible.

We just have to get through Russia's position of, something for us, and something else for us, and some more for us, and **** you. Of course, accepting that proposal would be faster, and seems to be your preferred position.

 

[Present Not Past]

Lol, so Moscow is going to fall and be occupied from multiple fronts?

Where did I say Moscow was going to be occupied?
You just made that up.

 

[barreness]

Russia won't last more than 2-3 more years as a parish state.

I know it's an auto correct but funny, orthodox life for you comrade

Putin has no plans for replacing western technology. The average Russian won't accept being banned from FIFA, IOC, IATA etc etc for ever. All the rich vatniks (the ones that Putin relies on for support) have much of their wealth tied up in western states and love their holidays / shopping trips to the west.

Ok cool, they're currently surviving. Shopping trips in Shanghai instead of Paris isn't exactly the end of the world

It's a safe bet that the longer this drags on for Putin the worse it gets for Russia.

And yet the longer it goes the worse it gets for Ukraine

This war won't last for decades. It's got 2 years max left before Putin either gives up or is denazified by fellow Russians.

It's got under 6 months before Ukraine pulls the pin

Face it Putin has lost. Hopefully we can fast forward to the part where he dies alone in his bunker.

Russia holds like a fifth of Ukraine, how exactly is that changing? Beyond the propaganda push in Kursk, Russia is still taking cities in Donestk

 

[jatz14]

Where did I say Moscow was going to be occupied?
You just made that up.

He thinks the 2 options are, Ukraine gives Russia what it wants, or drive the Russian military back to Moscow.

 

[Present Not Past]

There's 200K refugees from Kursk Oblast headed for Moscow.
I'm confused?
Wasn't this war meant to be against Ukraine?

 

[barreness]

Make Russia care about other things more.

Like the economy, like destruction of infrastructure, like loss of their territory, like a continually rising death rate beginning to stir discontent in Russia.

Sure and all of those things are objectively worse for Ukraine, I don't get how you run this argument and not look at Ukraine's position

Thats how. Make Russia care about ending the war more than they care about taking Ukrainian territory. I dont even suggest that Ukraine adopt a, not one inch of Ukrainian soil, stance.

Which is lucky because they're still losing it

Russian millbloggers are starting to get worried. They are noticing that there is a large amount of military assets Ukraine has, that ARENT involved in the Kursk incursion. So, they are starting to think the end goal here is, grind away at an area in Russia, that doesn't have the prepared defences located, until Russia is forced to commit more and more forces, then hit somewhere else, like Crimea.

You can even think of it as a dry run. Ukraine is able to effectively isolate large pockets of Russian troops, by cutting the river crossings behind them.

Fantasy, the Kursk invasion has been stalled. Best possible position is that it ends up a 'buffer zone' like Russian attacks around Kherson.

This took Ukraine's best troops and materiel, while they continue to lose ground in Donestk

They can do that in Crimea too.

How? They burnt 100's of their best marines attempting a bridgehead over the river to Crimea, then thankfully gave up

Would that work do you think? Negotiate peace, taking our terms into account, or lose Crimea.

All it needs is a something for you, something for us stance, and a negotiated settlement is possible.

We just have to get through Russia's position of, something for us, and something else for us, and some more for us, and **** you. Of course, accepting that proposal would be faster, and seems to be your preferred position.

If they can hold Kursk for a month or so it is possible that'll be a bargaining chip. Not for Crimea but perhaps less of Donestk that they would have had to give up.

We'll see how this ends up, still a lot of grey areas. It has put limited ceasefire negotiations on the backburner though, Ukraine is going to have a rough winter that could well break them

 

[barreness]

Where did I say Moscow was going to be occupied?
You just made that up.

Do you not read your own posts?

'The same way Germany lost the the Second World War'

 

[barreness]

There's 200K refugees from Kursk Oblast headed for Moscow.
I'm confused?
Wasn't this war meant to be against Ukraine?

And 50,000 are due to be shipped out of the Donestk front, war sucks right
https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-pokrovsk-russia-attack-front-line-evacuations-/33088911.html

 

[Present Not Past]

Do you not read your own posts?

'The same way Germany lost the the Second World War'

LOL. You are special.
I don't just read my posts, I write them.

Russia can't win this war (oh sorry, special military ****up).
The same way Germany lost the the Second World War, Russia also will be forced to the eventual negotiation table with an ultimatum of unconditional surrender, of occupied territories.

 

[Present Not Past]

And 50,000 are due to be shipped out of the Donestk front, war sucks right
https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-pokrovsk-russia-attack-front-line-evacuations-/33088911.html

Deflection 101.

 

[barreness]

He thinks the 2 options are, Ukraine gives Russia what it wants, or drive the Russian military back to Moscow.

There is obviously no chance of Moscow falling without direct NATO involvement. Ukraine will have to cede territory to end this war, that much is obvious.

The fantasy of retaking all of the pre 2014 borders is all yours

 

[barreness]

LOL. You are special.
I don't just read my posts, I write them.

Russia can't win this war (oh sorry, special military ****up).
The same way Germany lost the the Second World War, Russia also will be forced to the eventual negotiation table with an ultimatum of unconditional surrender, of occupied territories.

Germany never entered the negotiation table in WW2, they were wholly occupied and destroyed. There were no occupied territories by the end and they didn't have a choice on the unconditional bit

How do you think this happens to Russia?

 

[Present Not Past]

There is obviously no chance of Moscow falling without direct NATO involvement. Ukraine will have to cede territory to end this war, that much is obvious.

The fantasy of retaking all of the pre 2014 borders is all yours

The only person saying that Moscow will be taken is you.
It's like your safe place.

 

[barreness]

Deflection 101.

True, least you're aware now that evacuations are happening on both sides and have been for almost three years for Ukraine

 

[Zidane98]

LOL. You are special.
I don't just read my posts, I write them.

Russia can't win this war (oh sorry, special military ****up).
The same way Germany lost the the Second World War, Russia also will be forced to the eventual negotiation table with an ultimatum of unconditional surrender, of occupied territories.

Yep. Russia is going to be a shithole for some time thanks to Adolf Putin.


Visiting Chechnya, doing deals with North Korea (lol). Needing military supplies from Belarus.

The facts are these are the actions of a dictator acting on desperation. Putin simply cannot maintain this war long term.

Ukraine is in much better shape as it will become a European nation effectively and will be rebuilt by European states for security & economic reasons.

Russia on the other hand has decimated it's biggest income source - natural resources.

And this is directly linked to Putin's fascist invasion of Ukraine. No matter what happens Putin is a loser in this war.

 

[Present Not Past]

True, least you're aware now that evacuations are happening on both sides and have been for almost three years for Ukraine

It must be pretty unsettling for Russians to be refugees when they were the invaders.
Things are going pear shaped maybe?

 

[Chief]

Rape kids? kinda dicey accusation

But yeh, that's what I meant. There will be more war crimes because this sets back a peace process

Same post.

 

[barreness]

It must be pretty unsettling for Russians to be refugees when they were the invaders.
Things are going pear shaped maybe?

I'm sure it's pretty bloody terrible for anyone to have to leave their home when a war arrives

 

[barreness]

Same post.

You got a war without warcrimes? It's kinda part of the deal

 

[Chief]

I'm sure it's pretty bloody terrible for anyone to have to leave their home when a war arrives

Or to have it destroyed by Russian peace-seeking missiles.