We "will" be packing our bags come finals time

[Jon Douglas]

I reckon we will finish 5 th.

We are not playing well enough to win all our remaining games.

It is understandable that we are not playing as well as per usual as we have so many youngsters in the side and we are missing Menzel and Vardy.

Simpson is not playing as well as we would like and neither is Caddy yet. Bews will surely be a bit up and down and Murdoch still plays in patches. Varcoe is looking better but still needs to be more effective.

Harry is not playing to his usual standards and neither is SJ of late.

Selwood looks to be sore or carrying something.

Bundy is looking quite good but needs to keep improving if we are to be a threat.

And Kersten will also surely be up and down given he has the massive experience of 2 senior games at the present.

Motlop has still a way to go to be at his best.

Lonergan has been ok but is slowly slowing.

Rivers is playing better and so is Guthrie, Hawkins and Blitz.

Add that all up and I reckon we re not going to be the most consistent side. On our day it is probably true we can beat anyone - but from 5 th we would need to have at least 3 - 4 days out in a row.

 

[Ninty]

I love how everyone knows what's going to happen when there's only 1 game difference from 1st-5th!

 

[vinum coupe]

I love how everyone knows what's going to happen when there's only 1 game difference from 1st-5th!

Effectively 2 for us Ninty.

 

[Ninty]

which is nothing. Look at Port.

 

[Farmer2Goggin]

Good points . You make a good case
I just feel we have bigger flat spots within wins now. We are not as dominant, we are weaker in multiple areas because we are build rather than just trying to tune what is already built. Did we have many new players in 2009? I can t remember of the top? What was our age / games played compared to today? I do remember us being written off at about now when we rested a heap of players and got beaten.

Can we win , yes we can. But I feel so many things have to fall our way. I really, really hope your right.

Great points Turbocat
We are showing all the hallmarks of a side on the rebuild - which is exactly what we are at the moment.
I would also add that we can be beaten soundly a la GC and Power , something we haven't seen for some time - our percentage is a perfect indicator of our current standing. The second half fadeouts are a real concern as one way to interpret them is that we try our guts out for a 1/2 , establish a small dominance , but lack the ability to resist the opposition during the momentum shifts their way - as it always will in the ebb and flow of footy these days. We also lack the ability to put the game beyond dispute when we have the momentum.

Having siad all of that we are 10 : 4 with a reasonable draw , games at home to come , clearly not playing our best with a few hurt and some regaining fitness. Get a bit of luck our way , stay healthy and give the kids further opportunity who knows what could happen.

 

[The rabbi]

I love how everyone knows what's going to happen when there's only 1 game difference from 1st-5th!

And a ship load load of percentage too Ninty. That percentage will be worth 4 points alone.

 

[Ninty]

And a ship load load of percentage too Ninty. That percentage will be worth 4 points alone.

win the games and the percentage will mean bugger all.

 

[The rabbi]

win the games and the percentage will mean bugger all.

You are a hell of a lot more optimistic than I am.

 

[Ninty]

You are a hell of a lot more optimistic than I am.

You know what I'm like. You thought we'd struggle against St Kilda.

 

[vinum coupe]

win the games and the percentage will mean bugger all.

You are correct.
And I posted earlier that the guys above us have to play each other, so it helps.

Winning those games is the hard bit.

 

[Cosmic Energy]

Simpson is not playing as well as we would like and neither is Caddy yet. Bews will surely be a bit up and down and Murdoch still plays in patches. Varcoe is looking better but still needs to be more effective.....

Your concerns with players are fairly accurate but I guess there's some positives in there too. e.g. Christensen, Caddy & Motlop start to build towards their best while giving Selwood & Johnson in particular a bit of a rest without the output dropping too much. With Guthrie & GHS growing in stature our midfield all of a sudden has a good look to it. With that quality back we then don't ask quite as much of anyone in the team i.e. we don't totally rely upon our older brigade to battle for an entire game, nor do we leave too much to guys like Murdoch for long periods.

What I'd hope is that the lapses like in the 3rd qtr against Essendon get shorter & shorter where the younger/returning guys are physically in games for longer, and the older guys don't have to battle for the entire game. Also looking for a guy like Varcoe to be a bit of a middle man at this stage of his career. You just want him to impose himself a little more when required to bridge the gap between the old & young blokes. Hoping for a little more input from him in the run home.

Tough comp at the top this year too, you feel like we can't lose any more games to get top 4, whereas in some years, 2010 for example, the Bulldogs lost 8 and still made top 4.

 

[Jon Douglas]

win the games and the percentage will mean bugger all.

Not sure you can say this. You just made the point that 'I love how everyone knows what's going to happen when there's only 1 game difference from 1st-5th!' - and yet you know percentage will not play a part in where we finish.

Granted if we did win all our games on the way home we would likely be top 4 - but that could still mean, because of percentage we play in SA or WA. Not ideal.

We are all guessing of course but I think most of us recognise we are not the gun team we once were and that we are not playing like a gun side this year. And there are good reasons for this.

So for me, from the form I have seen thus far, I think it will be quite an achievement for us to win all the remaining games of this season.

 

[TEDDY24INC]

Not sure you can say this. You just made the point that 'I love how everyone knows what's going to happen when there's only 1 game difference from 1st-5th!' - and yet you know percentage will not play a part in where we finish.

Granted if we did win all our games on the way home we would likely be top 4 - but that could still mean, because of percentage we play in SA or WA. Not ideal.

We are all guessing of course but I think most of us recognise we are not the gun team we once were and that we are not playing like a gun side this year. And there are good reasons for this.

So for me, from the form I have seen thus far, I think it will be quite an achievement for us to win all the remaining games of this season.

Win all of our games we will finish top 2, probably top. Lose 1 and we finish top four somewhere

 

[Ninty]

haha, fair point Jon Douglas. I still don't know what's going to happen, no one does, that's the beauty about sport - it's all uncertain.

but the task is obviously having to win the games rather than relying on percentage to be on top of another. 4th spot could even be ideal if Hawks end up 1st. What if we ended up having great percentage, finished 3rd because of it, and then had to travel interstate? If only we had that poor percentage!

Just have to deal with whatever happens. I'm happy that we are even in contention for a top four spot after the success we've had.

 

[Seeds]

still a very big good call, they have quality players to come back and know how to win. I suspect they will finish top.

not disagreeing with their quality its just that their remaining draw is so much harder then everyone elses its not funny. Freo in Freo, Geelong, Sydney, Adelaide in Adelaide, pies and north. hawthorn can only lose one of those games and still finish top (even then that might not be enough). If they lose 3 then they most likely miss top 4.

 

[Seeds]

Really? Link?
And even still, we actually looked good enough that year.

You saying that we didn't and we do this year?

we were definatey a better shot that year then this. But it wasnt all rosy for us supporters. A number of supporters on here after the bulldogs and Carlton game thought our premiership chances were done. Pies and Bulldogs were in red hot form going into the finals and then there was the saints. We were struggling late in the year with a number of injury concerns. Everyone forgets this now. My point is form can change quickly. Dont completely discount us yet for this year. We have time and the talent. We need to find form and fitness.

 

[Jon Douglas]

North, Fremantle and Carlton is the cruncher. North will be eager to get us back after their poor showing earlier in the year and they get us at their favourite ground but we should be heading into that one on the back of a 4 games winning streak so confidence and form will be better by that stage. If Stokesy is back and we have McIntosh fresh and back in form, should be too good. The Carlton game is the worry as we may be playing our grand final the week earlier and Geelong often pull up sluggish the week after.

And this highlights my point. If we were a serious Premiership threat - a certain Top 4 team we would not fear losing to North or Carlton. Freo a different matter but it is at home. They are a very unit so a tough nut to crack even if you are a top side. I expect the two games that will determine our fate will be the Freo and Hawks games. Win those 2 and Ninty will be proven right !

Good God make him the new Nostradamus !

 

[speedybundy]

Our crunch games are North, Freo and Hawthorn. All winnable, and even though I don't expect us to if we win our remaining games we are a real chance for top two believe it or not!

 

[Jon Douglas]

Look we have had such a crap season with injuries we are due for some change in fortune.

Well maybe.

If we get Bundy, Motlop and Simpson in good form - and Murdoch, Bews and Caddy are decent performers - we still have the class to create upsets.

So it is not over until it is over. But it is a bit of a long shot IMO.

 

[Goggin Our Best]

The big downer for me -re season 2014 flag chances - was that 110 point flogging at the SCG - watching that game live - as painfull as it was - suggested - that a few of the Geelong veterans - had been to the well once too often - it might only be one game - but premiership teams dont get beaten like that - Geelong have been fantastic for 7 plus years - but that night - i reckon the towell got tossed in

If you take a line at Geelong with the 4 teams above them on the ladder

Hawthorn have annihilated the Suns home and away - and against Port and Swans in away games - they havent capitulated - when placed under enormous pressure

Swans - with Tippet and Franklin - well we saw 1st hand how good they are

Fremantle are going very strongly - their home win a couple weeks back against the Crows - god they just crushed them - made the Crows look putrid

Port - actually im hoping they finish 1st - dont know if their good enough to win it - but im hoping they do

The 2 encouraging signs for Geelong from Friday - Christensens 1st half was excellent - he is a massive in - and to a much lesser extent Kersten

But the manner of that 110 point flogging - you would think - would or should dent the confidence of the most optimistic supporter

 

[Ninty]

Do you remember Geelong losing by over 100 points in 2006? 86 points in 2008? We have definitely had blown out off days before and turned out okay after that. 2015 looks good.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Teriyakicat]

On current form we have the potential to lose to North, Freo, Hawks and Carlton got to within a kick last time so don't see why they can't go one better next time.
Hopefully the bad North side turns up, hopefully Geelong have figured out how to beat Freo. Hopefully Hawthorn haven't figured out how to beat us and this time we play 4 qtrs against Carlton.

Yeah, not much to ask there, Overhang..... I reckon you might be onto something, there!

One thing that has been missing from the Cats' games this year is the 5 minutes of dominance where we produce a flurry of goals. Yeah, we've done it a few times during the season but it isn't happening with any regularity.

 

[Seeds]

Not sure you can say this. You just made the point that 'I love how everyone knows what's going to happen when there's only 1 game difference from 1st-5th!' - and yet you know percentage will not play a part in where we finish.

Granted if we did win all our games on the way home we would likely be top 4 - but that could still mean, because of percentage we play in SA or WA. Not ideal.

We are all guessing of course but I think most of us recognise we are not the gun team we once were and that we are not playing like a gun side this year. And there are good reasons for this.

So for me, from the form I have seen thus far, I think it will be quite an achievement for us to win all the remaining games of this season.

If we win all our games we will finish top 2.