When does injuries become a reason rather than an excuse?

[John Who]

I would like to discuss 2 issues with regards to the injuries to a footy club and more specifically to the AFC in 2024:
1. Where do we draw a line between injuries occurring to the club in a season and for it to be a genuine reason for a club’s season demise, as opposed to a pitiful excuse for a year of poor showing?

2. I’ll put up some stats and give out my take on the injuries. If laid out in numbers then it might give people more of an informed opinion, perhaps?

————————
1. Let’s take the 2 extremes of possible injury events in a season:
On the one hand, if say, there was no season-ending injuries to any of the players and throughout the year there were only a handful of players missing a few games between them, then I think most would agree that would be an absolutely awesome season on the injury front. Then if we flip it around and say, if we had injuries to all the regular AFL starters throughout the season, and by the season’s end, we basically played the SANFL squad, then that would likely be viewed as a disastrous season with respect to injuries!
So with the hypothetical in mind, where do we actually draw the line between an obvious reason for a season gone sour, or a “happy clapper attempt at making excuses for the club”?

2. Here’s some statistical facts I’ve taken from afltables.com and focusing on the injuries to the regular AFL players:

AFL Tables - Adelaide - 2024 Game by Game Player Stats

1. Murray - 15 games (coming back mid season from a knee injury)
2. Worrell - 10 games (had a significant arm injury + surgery)
3. Butts - 8 games (various niggles in 3 different injury patches)
4. Milera - 20 games (knee injury + surgery)
5. Crouch - 8 games (shoulder injury + surgery)
6. Jones - 7 games (knee/back in 2 injury patches)
7. Pedlar - 17 games (shoulder injury + surgery)
8. Rankine - 4 games + 4 weeks suspension (hamstring + concussion)
9. Tex - 5 games (various niggles in 4 patches of injury)
10. Thilthorpe - 16 games (coming back 2/3 into the season from a knee injury)

Broadly speaking, that’s half of our starting line up that had a pretty disruptive season from bodily issues. And not to mention with the lengthy injuries, either they’d have limited preseason training or they’d loose some of that fitness due to the lack of running while injured.

IMO, injuries have more than likely played a role in our season’s decline/stagnation. Also I want to point out that if for a more experienced team, injuries might be covered more readily, but while we’re still a team in development, it basically means we have no choice but to try kids who might not be fully developed into their natural roles. Thus causing a more disruptive effect to the club’s season. While kids like Nankervis and Taylor look ready-made, players like Dowling, Cook, Borlase, Bond are still finding their feet and unlikely to replicate the output of their injured counterparts.

Additional point, hopefully next year luck will balance itself and we get less injuries. If our results go much better, then one would have to think that the injuries this season has played a significant part. Whereas if we remain in the bottom quarter of the ladder next year, then maybe we do have a shit coach after all…?

 

[adelaidecrows]

I would like to discuss 2 issues with regards to the injuries to a footy club and more specifically to the AFC in 2024:
1. Where do we draw a line between injuries occurring to the club in a season and for it to be a genuine reason for a club’s season demise, as opposed to a pitiful excuse for a year of poor showing?

2. I’ll put up some stats and give out my take on the injuries. If laid out in numbers then it might give people more of an informed opinion, perhaps?

————————
1. Let’s take the 2 extremes of possible injury events in a season:
On the one hand, if say, there was no season-ending injuries to any of the players and throughout the year there were only a handful of players missing a few games between them, then I think most would agree that would be an absolutely awesome season on the injury front. Then if we flip it around and say, if we had injuries to all the regular AFL starters throughout the season, and by the season’s end, we basically played the SANFL squad, then that would likely be viewed as a disastrous season with respect to injuries!
So with the hypothetical in mind, where do we actually draw the line between an obvious reason for a season gone sour, or a “happy clapper attempt at making excuses for the club”?

2. Here’s some statistical facts I’ve taken from afltables.com and focusing on the injuries to the regular AFL players:

AFL Tables - Adelaide - 2024 Game by Game Player Stats

1. Murray - 15 games (coming back mid season from a knee injury)
2. Worrell - 10 games (had a significant arm injury + surgery)
3. Butts - 8 games (various niggles in 3 different injury patches)
4. Milera - 20 games (knee injury + surgery)
5. Crouch - 8 games (shoulder injury + surgery)
6. Jones - 7 games (knee/back in 2 injury patches)
7. Pedlar - 17 games (shoulder injury + surgery)
8. Rankine - 4 games + 4 weeks suspension (hamstring + concussion)
9. Tex - 5 games (various niggles in 4 patches of injury)
10. Thilthorpe - 16 games (coming back 2/3 into the season from a knee injury)

Broadly speaking, that’s half of our starting line up that had a pretty disruptive season from bodily issues. And not to mention with the lengthy injuries, either they’d have limited preseason training or they’d loose some of that fitness due to the lack of running while injured.

IMO, injuries have more than likely played a role in our season’s decline/stagnation. Also I want to point out that if for a more experienced team, injuries might be covered more readily, but while we’re still a team in development, it basically means we have no choice but to try kids who might not be fully developed into their natural roles. Thus causing a more disruptive effect to the club’s season. While kids like Nankervis and Taylor look ready-made, players like Dowling, Cook, Borlase, Bond are still finding their feet and unlikely to replicate the output of their injured counterparts.

Additional point, hopefully next year luck will balance itself and we get less injuries. If our results go much better, then one would have to think that the injuries this season has played a significant part. Whereas if we remain in the bottom quarter of the ladder next year, then maybe we do have a shit coach after all…?

Well I can speak for myself and from what I have read from the other main players on here. Our concern was the lack of depth that got exposed by so few injuries so quickly. Nicks was so obsessed with making finals last year, he didnt put games into players until it was too late. Nankervis, Worrell, Cook, Gollant, Himmelberg and Berry could have all been given more opportunities last year. Would have given them much more experience. Instead he didnt. Which means when we needed depth this year we didnt have it. This is on Nicks. Its poor planning and squad development. After 5 years that alone is a disaster.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Surely we are certainty for a flag if we can manage to have no injuries for the year.

Don't need to worry about having around 30 decent players & ensures continuity.

 

[GameofSloanes]

Tend to believe talent and game plan are bigger factors

 

[Redline]

First of all every teams have injuries.

Secondly you have to take into account who covered the inured players and in some of those cases the replacement played okay.

Thirdly a player like Milera loves the attenion of being on an AFL list but his body isn't up to it.

Looking at thr names overall we had a good run.

The reason we had a bad year was the midfield and we were poorly coached.

 

[FR0GGY]

Thilthorpe and worell are the only 2 that really affected us, but even then Keane came in and did a very good job.
Not sure why you’d include rankines suspension in as an injury.
Tex maybe, but this’ll be the norm with him not traveling

 

[Executive Landlord]

I always forget we are the only team with injuries

 

[AFC979810]

If we didn't have such a bad injury run - can you imagine how much improvement we would have by having more scoring shots than the opposition!

Love your posting Dr. John!

 

[John Who]

If we didn't have such a bad injury run - can you imagine how much improvement we would have by having more scoring shots than the opposition!

Love your posting Dr. John!

I like it how you combine past threads to twist it to suit your narrative. Unfortunately, I’m going to have to call you out because you keep pumping out BS.

The previous 2 seasons I made 2 threads regarding improved last quarters and improved scoring shots in the early part of those 2 seasons which predicted an improvement overall. And guess what? The predictions came true!
We went from 5W with 82% (2021) to 8W, 87% (2022) and then a further jump to 10 W, 117% (2023).

If you go through the threads this year, I’ve made no such claim we’ve improved this year.

 

[Dangerousfield]

Lots of teams had far worse injury lists than us and performed better. Last year we had a magic run which, along with a very soft draw and a Tex out of the box season, had us perform better than expected.

This year the draw was harder, we got an average injury toll and Tex regressed as you'd expect with an old stager.

All of this doesn't forgive the dreadful selection policy, unimaginitive coaching and a failure to develop youth once the season was gone.

John Who - AFC apologist

 

[John Who]

Back on topic, I want to compare the first 7 rounds to that of the last 7 rounds of this season. There is some relevance as these were the initial rounds we had missed Thilthorpe and Murray from significant injuries, and they’re both back together within the last 7 rounds. Both are definite starters for 2025, assuming fit.

First 7 rounds: 2 wins, 5 losses (faced 2 top-8 teams)

Last 7 rounds: 3 wins, 4 losses (faced 5 top-8 teams).

We generally played much better in the last 7 rounds with the exception of the abysmal Hawthorn game which was the anomaly for the year. 6 of the opponents we faced in the last 7 games were all vying for Finals (including Essendon), so the last 7 rounds gave as a better indication of where we are currently at relative to the top ranks. Also, important to note that we came to within a goal of beating the Cats at their home ground, which was the best showing we’ve had for around 15-20 years!

 

[John Who]

Lots of teams had far worse injury lists than us and performed better. Last year we had a magic run which, along with a very soft draw and a Tex out of the box season, had us perform better than expected.

This year the draw was harder, we got an average injury toll and Tex regressed as you'd expect with an old stager.

All of this doesn't forgive the dreadful selection policy, unimaginitive coaching and a failure to develop youth once the season was gone.

John Who - AFC apologist

Injuries = every team
Injuries + young group > challenge than injuries + mature group

It’s ok to discuss the good and bad. I can’t give a stuff talking about the bad because it’s a global pandemic on this board already. But just because I don’t talk much about the bad, doesn’t mean I can’t see the bad. For instance, if Nicks doesn’t make Finals next year, I can bet he won’t get a contract extension.

 

[1970crow]

I remember when isolating our performances against top 8 sides was a strong indicator of improved performance for the following year. At the end of the day, it's a game played over 4 quarters and 23 rounds and you need to kick a goal to get 6 points. There'd be dozens of individual events that you can pull out and put together to tell whatever story you want. At the end of the day, we won the games we won, the opposition won the games they won and we finished 15th of the ladder out of 18 teams. That's what we are, we're the 15th best team of 18 for season 2024.

 

[Danger in Texas]

I do think we maybe get a couple more wins if Thilthorpe and Rankine don’t miss the games they did

But geez, it’s not hard to look at how we played for a lot of the year and see clear flaws with underperforming starters, ball movement and midfield setup

 

[AFC979810]

Injuries = every team
Injuries + young group > challenge than injuries + mature group

It’s ok to discuss the good and bad. I can’t give a stuff talking about the bad because it’s a global pandemic on this board already. But just because I don’t talk much about the bad, doesn’t mean I can’t see the bad. For instance, if Nicks doesn’t make Finals next year, I can bet he won’t get a contract extension.

Would they keep him for 2026 (which he is contracted to) if he doesn't make the finals in 2025.

 

[weekend at bernies]

100% down to injuries... nothing to do with Nixs being incompetent.

 

[maxlilly]

I think our game plan all comes together and hums when we have a south westerly blowing around 5-10 kms
Due to the unseasonal conditions this year, our game plan fell apart.
This was evident in the Richmond game when we had that dastardly northerly wind. Along with all our other loses.
Next year, if the wind blows in the right direction, I think we will be top 4

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

I think our game plan all comes together and hums when we have a south westerly blowing around 5-10 kms
Due to the unseasonal conditions this year, our game plan fell apart.
This was evident in the Richmond game when we had that dastardly northerly wind. Along with all our other loses.
Next year, if the wind blows in the right direction, I think we will be top 4

Nice work.

We need to get in huge industrial fans for our home games...

 

[maxlilly]

Nice work.

We need to get in huge industrial fans for our home games...

We were just unlucky this year with the weather.

Lets hope there are winds of change coming
We may need to be patient though

 

[John Who]

First of all every teams have injuries.

Secondly you have to take into account who covered the inured players and in some of those cases the replacement played okay.

Thirdly a player like Milera loves the attenion of being on an AFL list but his body isn't up to it.

Looking at thr names overall we had a good run.

The reason we had a bad year was the midfield and we were poorly coached.

The issue on this topic of injuries isn’t just the injuries per se, but the ability of the players to cover for the injuries. I specifically recall in those early rounds there was a general malaise among the group and a few of the key players were out of form eg. Fog, Dawson, Rachele. With the key players returning from injury, it’s not surprising to see more confidence in the group and the poor form earlier in the season is transformed back into more the usual form we come to expect of our star players.

 

[John Who]

First 7 rounds: 2 wins, 5 losses (faced 2 top-8 teams)

Last 7 rounds: 3 wins, 4 losses (faced 5 top-8 teams).

For those oblivious to the point of this thread or interested in making joke comments only, I’d like to pose a serious question:
If it was simply due to poor coaching this year, shouldn’t we expect losing more in the last 7 rounds while facing tougher opponents and when Finals are at stake?

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

First 7 rounds: 2 wins, 5 losses (faced 2 top-8 teams)

Last 7 rounds: 3 wins, 4 losses (faced 5 top-8 teams).

For those oblivious to the point of this thread or interested in making joke comments only, I’d like to pose a serious question:
If it was simply due to poor coaching this year, shouldn’t we expect losing more in the last 7 rounds while facing tougher opponents and when Finals are at stake?

No, our record has been better against top 8 teams than those around us for a while now.

We have mental issues where we lose games we are expected to win, but often do better when we are not expected to win.

Bottom line is we have a coach incapable of making us successful.

Using injuries as an excuse just means you are delusional & sucked in to the club's BS excuses.

 

[John Who]

No, our record has been better against top 8 teams than those around us for a while now.

We have mental issues where we lose games we are expected to win, but often do better when we are not expected to win.

Bottom line is we have a coach incapable of making us successful.

Using injuries as an excuse just means you are delusional & sucked in to the club's BS excuses.

Yeah, like I’m delusional by making a valid question..
Again, if it’s just shit coaching, wouldn’t it make more sense we lose more to better teams? Or are you confused with players’ fragile mindset with poor coaching?

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Yeah, like I’m delusional by making a valid question..
Again, if it’s just shit coaching, wouldn’t it make more sense we lose more to better teams? Or are you confused with players’ fragile mindset with poor coaching?

Suggest you re-read my reasoning again as you clearly didn't get it!

 

[John Who]

Suggest you re-read my reasoning again as you clearly didn't get it!

There’s often a multitude of factors. Me posing a legit question if injuries are a factor, does not make it a delusional thought. We’re all mostly throwing around opinions where nothing is factual. Unless you think your opinions are facts, which then makes you the deluded one.