List Mgmt. 2016 Trade and Free Agency Targets Part 1

[bird_man]

In the last few years we've seen teams step up and step down. We all know what path we are taking, but for next year, you always want to improve your list whether your the hawks and recruit Frawley Freo got Bennell, Cats got Danger etc.
This upcoming draft we don't have our second round pick, so effectively we will have pick (4-8) first round and third round somewhere in then 40s.

I'm worried that next year not having a second rounder will harm our ability to really improve again in 2017, I just think we will tread water again. I hope I am wrong.

And what if Freeman is playing good senior footy by the end of the year? Can't have your cake and eat it too.

 

[gringo2011]

What risks are you referring to that we stuffed up?

Carlisle and Freeman. So far they have been a publicity disaster and then a years suspension will hurt too. I heard them talking about the Essendon players on SEN and the ex footballers all thought it would be hard to get back to any real form after a year off. Carlisle is unlikely to slot straight back in after he gets off his year off -if it takes us until 2018 before we probably see anything substantial from him its a long wait. We would have been better off building up with a kid in the end. Kieran Collins or someone will probably take that long but he will have a 10 year plus career. Freeman is looking a long way off and could still be anything but right now he is costing a second round pick next year and substantial cost with his injury and contract and he's not playing. I wonder if that pick could have been used like Melbourne did to get a better pick when coupled with a later pick and go after a really good kid with out the injury problems. The Dogs in one draft got Stringer and Mc Crae because they had 2 first round picks in one draft. Right now we aren't exactly winning. Of course if both come good it will seem like cleaver recruiting but there are big ifs and neither were super bargains with everything taken into account.

 

[gringo2011]

And what imif Freeman is playin good senior footy by the end of the year? Can't have your cake and eat it too.

It will be fantastic but Freeman hasn't played even VFL more than twice. Bennell had a video that was pretty much the same as Jake's but that meant Freo got him for a bargain. Bennell had games at senior AFL level that were absolute all Australian quality performances to judge him on. He is a speedy goal kicker and exactly the type we need. Freeman is an unknown quantity, he's really a lucky dip trade. I don't want to sound negative but we can't really play risky until we start getting some reward for the risk otherwise we are going backwards.

 

[Luke_sainters]

And what if Freeman is playing good senior footy by the end of the year? Can't have your cake and eat it too.

Settle down fella,
So what if he does play? that doesn't mean he will have a significant influence on our footy this year and that was my point. So you go finish the cake

 

[Joffaboy]

Carlisle and Freeman. So far they have been a publicity disaster and then a years suspension will hurt too. I heard them talking about the Essendon players on SEN and the ex footballers all thought it would be hard to get back to any real form after a year off. Carlisle is unlikely to slot straight back in after he gets off his year off -if it takes us until 2018 before we probably see anything substantial from him its a long wait. We would have been better off building up with a kid in the end. Kieran Collins or someone will probably take that long but he will have a 10 year plus career. Freeman is looking a long way off and could still be anything but right now he is costing a second round pick next year and substantial cost with his injury and contract and he's not playing. I wonder if that pick could have been used like Melbourne did to get a better pick when coupled with a later pick and go after a really good kid with out the injury problems. The Dogs in one draft got Stringer and Mc Crae because they had 2 first round picks in one draft. Right now we aren't exactly winning. Of course if both come good it will seem like cleaver recruiting but there are big ifs and neither were super bargains with everything taken into account.

Gringo. That is all supposition mate. If Carlisle plays this year he would have been ordinary with his hip. If he played a coupke of games and the hip gave out, He is out for most of the season.
Both scenarios would have led to a monumental melt by some on here.
People come back from a year off all the time. Jake will have a good hip and knee and be primed. Will be rusty sure, but the pessimism is ill founded. IMO.

How is Freeman a publicity disaster? Traded for next draft second. Is coming on well and may play in the first half of the season. Great result so far.
Real glass half empty stuff.

 

[jonathons11]

In the last few years we've seen teams step up and step down. We all know what path we are taking, but for next year, you always want to improve your list whether your the hawks and recruit Frawley Freo got Bennell, Cats got Danger etc.
This upcoming draft we don't have our second round pick, so effectively we will have pick (4-8) first round and third round somewhere in then 40s.

I'm worried that next year not having a second rounder will harm our ability to really improve again in 2017, I just think we will tread water again. I hope I am wrong.

Just have to remember it's not like we completely lost our 2nd rounder, we have already used it.
As long as Freeman comes good he will make a difference sooner then our 2nd rounder would have.

 

[bird_man]

Carlisle and Freeman. So far they have been a publicity disaster and then a years suspension will hurt too. I heard them talking about the Essendon players on SEN and the ex footballers all thought it would be hard to get back to any real form after a year off. Carlisle is unlikely to slot straight back in after he gets off his year off -if it takes us until 2018 before we probably see anything substantial from him its a long wait. We would have been better off building up with a kid in the end. Kieran Collins or someone will probably take that long but he will have a 10 year plus career. Freeman is looking a long way off and could still be anything but right now he is costing a second round pick next year and substantial cost with his injury and contract and he's not playing. I wonder if that pick could have been used like Melbourne did to get a better pick when coupled with a later pick and go after a really good kid with out the injury problems. The Dogs in one draft got Stringer and Mc Crae because they had 2 first round picks in one draft. Right now we aren't exactly winning. Of course if both come good it will seem like cleaver recruiting but there are big ifs and neither were super bargains with everything taken into account.

Extremely over the top if you ask me. Carlisle will have a fulll pre season with Nab cup games under his belt, he might be a bit rusty early but I can't see it taking 12 months to get his form going.

Freeman was never going to come in and make an impact straight away. We got a top 10 draft pick for a pick that will probably end up being in the mid 20's.

Very early to be making the call that both trades were a stuff up. We were never going to play finals this year.

 

[Joffaboy]

Settle down fella,
So what if he does play? that doesn't mean he will have a significant influence on our footy this year and that was my point. So you go finish the cake

How would the next draft second rounder have any significant influence on our footy this year either.
Or for that mattet next year?

 

[bird_man]

It will be fantastic but Freeman hasn't played even VFL more than twice. Bennell had a video that was pretty much the same as Jake's but that meant Freo got him for a bargain. Bennell had games at senior AFL level that were absolute all Australian quality performances to judge him on. He is a speedy goal kicker and exactly the type we need. Freeman is an unknown quantity, he's really a lucky dip trade. I don't want to sound negative but we can't really play risky until we start getting some reward for the risk otherwise we are going backwards.

Everytime we pick someone in the draft they are an "unknown quantity". We've got a top ten draft pick for a mid 20's draft pick. Definitely worth the risk. How silly would we look if we said no to that deal and picked up another Spencer White?

 

[bird_man]

Settle down fella,
So what if he does play? that doesn't mean he will have a significant influence on our footy this year and that was my point. So you go finish the cake

Considering we gave away this years pick neither will whoever we would have chosen in the draft

 

[Luke_sainters]

How would the next draft second rounder have any significant influence on our footy this year either.
Or for that mattet next year?

As I said with the road we are taking - we might pick the next rising star.
Lewis Taylor pick 29 for example
Hannerbry rising star pick 30
Beams pick 29 (i think)
So thats what I think we are missing out on, and Freeman we just don't know what he can produce. Yet.

History suggests to me that there is still the chance of picking up a star with your second rounder. So IMO the second pick third pick and forth picks are as important as the first pick.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Next time we are playing finals no-one will give a crap who won the rising start in 2016.

 

[Luke_sainters]

Next time we are playing finals no-one will give a crap who won the rising start in 2016.

reckon you might be missing the point.

 

[Joffaboy]

As I said with the road we are taking - we might pick the next rising star.
Lewis Taylor pick 29 for example
Hannerbry rising star pick 30
Beams pick 29 (i think)
So thats what I think we are missing out on, and Freeman we just don't know what he can produce. Yet.

History suggests to me that there is still the chance of picking up a star with your second rounder. So IMO the second pick third pick and forth picks are as important as the first pick.

Seems like a long bow to draw.

We may just as easily pick up a Ledger, Crocker, or Nicholas Winmar.

And when Freeman gets on the park, he might be a Rising star. You dont know at this stage and seem to be worrying about hypotheticals that are high odds anyway.

 

[Linton St]

I reckon we want some speed and Lachie can win ball all day but he's slow. I would only want an imported mid if they are quick outside runners. We really need 2 more Jack Steven types. Whitfield and Kelly would be the types with higher ceilings than Neale and probably around the same price. Shiel would have been nice.

One of my favourite players to watch from the other 17 clubs, capable of playing inside & out.
Often reminds me of our own Jack Steven, though his disposal is clearly superior.

 

[crasha301]

As I said with the road we are taking - we might pick the next rising star.
Lewis Taylor pick 29 for example
Hannerbry rising star pick 30
Beams pick 29 (i think)
So thats what I think we are missing out on, and Freeman we just don't know what he can produce. Yet.

History suggests to me that there is still the chance of picking up a star with your second rounder. So IMO the second pick third pick and forth picks are as important as the first pick.

We also dont know what that 2nd rounder can produce either (or who it could be) Could be a flop, could be a gun.

We dont know what freeman could be yet either.

 

[gringo2011]

Gringo. That is all supposition mate. If Carlisle plays this year he would have been ordinary with his hip. If he played a coupke of games and the hip gave out, He is out for most of the season.
Both scenarios would have led to a monumental melt by some on here.
People come back from a year off all the time. Jake will have a good hip and knee and be primed. Will be rusty sure, but the pessimism is ill founded. IMO.

How is Freeman a publicity disaster? Traded for next draft second. Is coming on well and may play in the first half of the season. Great result so far.
Real glass half empty stuff.

Carlisle is more a publicity disaster. Freeman and Carlisle together make it harder for the club to justify taking risky players though. They either need to get someone like Shiel or Josh Kelly who has form and no injury history.

 

[gringo2011]

Everytime we pick someone in the draft they are an "unknown quantity". We've got a top ten draft pick for a mid 20's draft pick. Definitely worth the risk. How silly would we look if we said no to that deal and picked up another Spencer White?

I would say that is true but they generally don't come with the kind of injury history of Freeman. A top 20 pick has usually been analysed to the most minute detail and they are an unknown quantity as to how they will go at AFL level but far from a lucky dip. All I'm saying is Freeman is no bargain compared to someone like Bennell who was already a very established player with incredible form but his off field stuff made his value drop. We will probably end up paying similar for Freeman but he has a terrible injury history. I would say unless he comes in and shows some extremely good form we will probably need to be risk averse for while because giving up decent picks doesn't look good unless you are getting return on investment. O'Rourke was injury riddled and a top 3 pick- he went for 19 and 40 with 43 coming back.

Last year there was a huge number of good players still available with second picks, since the GWS and GC concessions ended there are better players in the 20s.

 

[Joffaboy]

Carlisle is more a publicity disaster. Freeman and Carlisle together make it harder for the club to justify taking risky players though. They either need to get someone like Shiel or Josh Kelly who has form and no injury history.

I agree with the fact that we cant afford to recruit anyone with an obvious injury risk. This seems to rule out JoM and the club seems to have gone cold on that idea.
Don't know if those two recruits are stuffed up yet. We need to cool our jets for a while.

 

[Moorabbin Ghost]

It will be fantastic but Freeman hasn't played even VFL more than twice. Bennell had a video that was pretty much the same as Jake's but that meant Freo got him for a bargain. Bennell had games at senior AFL level that were absolute all Australian quality performances to judge him on. He is a speedy goal kicker and exactly the type we need. Freeman is an unknown quantity, he's really a lucky dip trade. I don't want to sound negative but we can't really play risky until we start getting some reward for the risk otherwise we are going backwards.

You say we can't play risky but then highlight what a good trade Bennell is for Freo? Trust me, Harley makes Jake look like a choir boy off the field.
I understand supporters being frustrated with the Carlisle trade but I have absolutely no doubt he'll be All Australian quality KPD when we're playing Finals.
And we have given up what will be around pick 30 for Nathan Freeman, yes it's a gamble with his previous injury history but he was a very highly rated youngster for good reason. He is exactly the type of player that supporters are currently crying out for.

 

[Joffaboy]

I would say that is true but they generally don't come with the kind of injury history of Freeman. .

We didn't select Judd because of his shoulders and went for a fit Ball. Subsequent events proved we pulled the wrong reign.

 

[Winmar2Lockett]

It will be fantastic but Freeman hasn't played even VFL more than twice. Bennell had a video that was pretty much the same as Jake's but that meant Freo got him for a bargain. Bennell had games at senior AFL level that were absolute all Australian quality performances to judge him on. He is a speedy goal kicker and exactly the type we need. Freeman is an unknown quantity, he's really a lucky dip trade. I don't want to sound negative but we can't really play risky until we start getting some reward for the risk otherwise we are going backwards.

Freeman is as unknown a quality as whatever kid we may have drafted in the 2nd round next year. As bird man mentioned, any pick can end up as a lucky dip...

IMO Carlisle showed more AA quality than Bennell has & in a much more difficult position to play. If you think that Jake is 50/50 to relapse & get into strife, maybe ask Defacto how he reckons Harley will go hanging with the WA homies again. Freo got a bargain for a few reasons;

1. Harley wanted to go to WA only
2. He chose Freo & WC wasn't interested
3. His drug dramas were from years earlier & the news broke months before the trade period

If the circumstances with Jake were similar

1. He didn't waiver in his commitment to become a Saint (by being happy to go PSD if necessary)
2. His SnapChat brain fade had become public in June instead of October.

I have no doubt that we would have paid a similar price to what the Dockers paid for Harley.

The suspension? Well while most of us predicted that would be the eventual outcome, the AFL industry was unbelievably blinded by the influence that they thought that AFL House could swing. Bennell is now on the 'indefinite' injury list so his recruitment is definitely in the 'to be assessed' bracket.

I don't buy the year out being a massive issue... plenty of blokes suffer horrible injuries, miss a full 12 months (Jake is actually only missing 8 months of club training) & come back in good nick.

To be honest, we're all guessing on what the outcome will be for both Jake & Nathan... but to write them off as failures or public relations disasters is overstating it to the extreme. Most even minded people see Jake's drug drama as something that St Kilda was the victim of....if it had occurred a year into his St Kilda career then it would have been a total disaster. Ignore the media mouth pieces that are running with the recruiting disaster line...drama sells more than truth.

I totally agree with you that we are not in a position to take a major risk like trading an early pick for a Jaegar O'Meara. At this stage I hope we hold onto our picks for the next few drafts or until we have a real big fish with proven elite capabilities (Shiel) in our grasp.

 

[St Pauls]

You say we can't play risky but then highlight what a good trade Bennell is for Freo? Trust me, Harley makes Jake look like a choir boy off the field.
I understand supporters being frustrated with the Carlisle trade but I have absolutely no doubt he'll be All Australian quality KPD when we're playing Finals.
And we have given up what will be around pick 30 for Nathan Freeman, yes it's a gamble with his previous injury history but he was a very highly rated youngster for good reason. He is exactly the type of player that supporters are currently crying out for.

Who is on your wish list for next year?

I think we target that third tall defender in Hurley or Marchbank.

Then maybe a young mid, either our first rounder on a mid like Brodie or get a Whitfield type.

Then go hard at Shiel in 2017.

 

[bird_man]

I can guarantee Collingwood wanted to keep Freeman and would have much prefer him then a lucky dip pick in the late 20's.

Yes, some great players get picked up with a pick around that mark, but for every great player there are probably 5 that don't make it and 5 that are average at best.

Freeman was a risk because of his injuries no doubt, but if he comes off we have a top ten draft pick for a pick that would have been more of a gamble then Freemans hamstrings.

 

[plugger66]

Carlisle and Freeman. So far they have been a publicity disaster and then a years suspension will hurt too. I heard them talking about the Essendon players on SEN and the ex footballers all thought it would be hard to get back to any real form after a year off. Carlisle is unlikely to slot straight back in after he gets off his year off -if it takes us until 2018 before we probably see anything substantial from him its a long wait. We would have been better off building up with a kid in the end. Kieran Collins or someone will probably take that long but he will have a 10 year plus career. Freeman is looking a long way off and could still be anything but right now he is costing a second round pick next year and substantial cost with his injury and contract and he's not playing. I wonder if that pick could have been used like Melbourne did to get a better pick when coupled with a later pick and go after a really good kid with out the injury problems. The Dogs in one draft got Stringer and Mc Crae because they had 2 first round picks in one draft. Right now we aren't exactly winning. Of course if both come good it will seem like cleaver recruiting but there are big ifs and neither were super bargains with everything taken into account.

Why is Carlisle unlikely to slot back in after 9 months off not a year? He will have one full preseason and one half preseason after the last game he played. Fitness wont be even a slight issue. The only problem will be mentally and no one knows how that will go. I suppose if you think they are dud picks you will think he will struggle mentally. Collins will take that long but unlike Carlisle hasn't proven anything yet so he may play 5 games or 200. I'm backing Carlisle to be playing for us when it matters in 2019 and beyond. I'm certainly nor backing Collins because we haven't seen anything of him at AFL level. And Freeman is costing us about pick 30. Do you want me to give you examples of all those who have failed around that pick. I'm also sure some have made it but to get a top 10 pick for pick 30 seems ok to me. Don't even understand the point of the dogs comment apart from emotively using names of very good footballers.

And you are right. Neither are super bargains yet and may never be but I reckon its way to early to call them bad picks. Finally on the publicity disaster I'm unsure I get that at all. 5k more members and better sponsorship than last year. Seems the disaster has effected the club.