Mega Thread 2019 List Management, Free Agency & Trade thread

[Wizard]

Kelly seems to be the only decent player on the market we've been linked too. He'd cost at minimum whatever compensation we get for Hill and potentially more. He's a decent player but I don't rate him as highly as others. And in all likelihood he'll request a trade to West Coast again anyway. Beyond that the cupboards pretty bare and you are looking at fringe players.

There always seems to be surprise names bob up as it approaches though.

This time last year we had no idea Neale and Weller would be traded.

 

[Simmofreo]

I would love the slow, lazy imposter out of the club!

Haha this year would have been a LOT worse without Matera

Have a look at the goal tally

On SM-N960F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[yyou]

As you do at 5 am I've had a bit of a think. I believe I'm echoing others on here when I say this as well but going in to the off-season I think our best bet is going to the draft.

If we play our cards right we could have 4 picks in the top 30, and 2 in the top 6. This could be the draft to cap off the rebuild if, and big if, we get those right.

highlighted the important part.
past record has not been great in this regard.

 

[Taylor]

Player - 2018 (games) - 2019 (games)
Matera - 13 (18) - 30 (19) = +131% (six goals after the Melbourne game when we lost our last key tall)
Walters - 22 (18) - 37 (21) = +68%
Taberner - 10 (9) - 13 (9) = +30%
Ballantyne - 21 (17) - 1 (3) = -95%
Mundy - 19 (22) - 7 (21) = -63%
Fyfe - 11 (15) - 15 (19) = +36%
McCarthy - 19 (17) - 19 (11) = flat

 

[malpaso]

I would love the slow, lazy imposter out of the club!

He is our best goal-kicking small forward (Walters plays midfield) and you want to get rid of him? How is he an impostor?

 

[purplerunsdeep2]

You’ll find these next few weeks a pretty simple process freo side - Bell et al will meet with every current player and ask the simple question - do you want to be here, if you do, here is what it will look like

If there’s hesitation or wanting out, Bell will trade.

Fan side - it’ll be tough as we may see a few leaves fall from the trees and we will continue to get smashed by the media, even more so if ***** Eagles go deep in sept.

I honestly believe we will take as many picks as possible and go to the draft unless we can negotiate a fair trade for Kelly, Gus or to the lesser Bolton.

I see us missing Kelly, which I’m ok about, going hard for Gus, which I’m happy about and giving a crack at Bolton, both id be happy to get.

I also see us loosing both Hills, keeping Langdon, which I’m unhappy about, and going to the draft with 2 top 10 picks and a bunch of others.

Bell will be highly visible and look to create a space of stabilisation - tbh I bet they can’t wait for this season to be done and get moving in to this next phase.

I’m excited...but I’ll be very hard pressed to re-new my memberships if Suma is in charge next season.... J-Lo for me


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Superkoops]

On the topic of Brad Hill's value, I'd have his current value around Neale's value from last year based on his output over the last two years and the factors below.

Factors:
- Clubs typically tend to pay more for quality inside mids in comparison to quality outside mids. Brad is arguably the best in the competition in his position at the moment, whereas Neale wasn't even the best mid at Freo.
- Like Brad, Neale was contracted so Brisbane had to pay a premium.
- Brad has more individual & team accolades than Neale did. Clubs really seem to value the IP that these ex-Hawthorn premiership players bring.
- Neale only wanted to deal with Brisbane and was heading to a two team state. If Brad needs to get back to Melbourne that badly and break his contract then it would be in the interest of both club & player for him to offer his services to all Melbourne clubs.

I'd accept one of the following for him if he wanted out (preferred scenario in order from top to bottom):
1. 1x high value 1st round pick & 1x low value 1st round pick
2. 1x high value 1st round pick & 1x high value 2nd round pick
3. 2x mid value 1st round picks

I’d be comfortable with pick 5 - little sweetener should be incl. but not essential. There are two probs:
- St Kilda want to trade their pick 5 for two later picks and hand one onto us (currently I see Adelaide the front runners for this but GWS if Coniglio goes will force Carlton/Hawks into a trade so might open this up for them to do it twice). If they do this we will need two first round picks. They obviously want to retain a pick in the top 18.
- St Kilda have no second or third picks.

We need to set the bar early and walk away just like Weller. Pick 5 min with a sweetener or get knicked.

 

[Diverbelow]

Would you grab Paddy Ryder who wants a 2 year deal. I know he is 31 but he will come cheap and let us play Lobb at FF. Is 2 years of Ryder better than Meek? If we are going on another 3 year rebuild (and lose Fyfe, Mundy and Walters) at the end then no but if we think we can overcome the injuries and be top 4 next year then yes.

 

[theGav56]

I’d be comfortable with pick 5 - little sweetener should be incl. but not essential. There are two probs:
- St Kilda want to trade their pick 5 for two later picks and hand one onto us (currently I see Adelaide the front runners for this but GWS if Coniglio goes will force Carlton/Hawks into a trade so might open this up for them to do it twice). If they do this we will need two first round picks. They obviously want to retain a pick in the top 18.
- St Kilda have no second or third picks.

We need to set the bar early and walk away just like Weller. Pick 5 min with a sweetener or get knicked.

To force a trade for Coniglio GWS need to match what will be a massive contract, which I doubt if they can do, and even if they could do it, probably shouldn't. While Adelaide could do it with Dangerfield because of his significantly lower contract (actually there was never a FA bid), Coniglio is unlikely to move "on the cheap".

 

[summerthebat]

Geelong flexing in the press that they'll only accept two first round picks for Kelly 'at a starting point'. I hope to hell he chooses West Coast. He's a great player but our problem is depth across the full 22 and further, Kelly isn't going to turn us into a finals contender with what we've lost along the way.

Like all teams, our best 22 is very good, but we can not sustain winning & consistent football when we suffer injuries and our history suggests we're going to have them.

Transferring our Hill & Langdon compensation for one player would be a disaster IMO, because the club's trying to pump the brakes on falling membership numbers. I just know Alcock's desperate to show the members something shiny and new entering 2020 as a marketing strategy.

 

[Taylor]

To force a trade for Coniglio GWS need to match what will be a massive contract, which I doubt if they can do, and even if they could do it, probably shouldn't. While Adelaide could do it with Dangerfield because of his significantly lower contract (actually there was never a FA bid), Coniglio is unlikely to move "on the cheap".

To match a free agency deal they only need to show that they can fit the total value inside the length of the deal.

Take Freo as an example. If Stephen Hill was offered $10,000,000 over seven years, we only have two currently contracted players in 2023 and that deal goes from 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 and 2026. We could absolutely be able to fit ten million in our salary cap over that period, we could put all of it in any of 2023, 2024, 2025 or 2026. The issue is that should Stephen Hill decide to sign with us the manner with which we showed we could match becomes the salary cap impact for us.

 

[The Joker]

I would love the slow, lazy imposter out of the club!

Seriously strange player selection to have a crack at. With Sonny in the midfield, he is our best performed and most consistent forward by some distance!

Really strange...

 

[Quokka]

I think Kelly would be very good for us and be a huge step towards rebuilding our midfield but it has to be in the ballpark of a Hill / Kelly straight swap. That'll likely put both players around the pick 5 mark, that's gotta be enough, if not walk away like summerthebat says we've too many gaps to sell the farm on one player.

I'd be happy enough to focus on building draft picks and then hit this draft hard but I don't think that's going to happen so will settle for one or two key players, conca and colyer etc have been ok but we don't need more fringe best 22 that are already playing their best football.

 

[theGav56]

To match a free agency deal they only need to show that they can fit the total value inside the length of the deal.

Take Freo as an example. If Stephen Hill was offered $10,000,000 over seven years, we only have two currently contracted players in 2023 and that deal goes from 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 and 2026. We could absolutely be able to fit ten million in our salary cap over that period, we could put all of it in any of 2023, 2024, 2025 or 2026. The issue is that should Stephen Hill decide to sign with us the manner with which we showed we could match becomes the salary cap impact for us.

Yes, but they also need to be committed to ink the deal if it that went forward. I really can't see the value for them in doing that, with them already having to put their best offer on the table for Coniglio, meaning that a rival club can structure their offer to better it. A one year deal at $1.7 could achieve that.

 

[Taylor]

Yes, but they also need to be committed to ink the deal if it that went forward. I really can't see the value for them in doing that, with them already having to put their best offer on the table for Coniglio, meaning that a rival club can structure their offer to better it. A one year deal at $1.7 could achieve that.

Restricted free agents have a minimum 2 year deal.

 

[summerthebat]

I think Kelly would be very good for us and be a huge step towards rebuilding our midfield but it has to be in the ballpark of a Hill / Kelly straight swap. That'll likely put both players around the pick 5 mark, that's gotta be enough, if not walk away like summerthebat says we've too many gaps to sell the farm on one player.

I'd be happy enough to focus on building draft picks and then hit this draft hard but I don't think that's going to happen so will settle for one or two key players, conca and colyer etc have been ok but we don't need more fringe best 22 that are already playing their best football.

Agree, I'd be more than OK with a straight swap and something extra, but losing Hill & Langdon just for Kelly doesn't solve our weak list depth.

Unfortunately pick 5/6 by itself doesn't look like Geelong would even entertain it.

 

[TheMcManusNose]

I think Kelly would be very good for us and be a huge step towards rebuilding our midfield but it has to be in the ballpark of a Hill / Kelly straight swap. That'll likely put both players around the pick 5 mark, that's gotta be enough, if not walk away like summerthebat says we've too many gaps to sell the farm on one player.

I'd be happy enough to focus on building draft picks and then hit this draft hard but I don't think that's going to happen so will settle for one or two key players, conca and colyer etc have been ok but we don't need more fringe best 22 that are already playing their best football.

Yep.

If it were a case of bringing Kelly and not losing Hill, I think an argument could be made that a mid of Kelly's quality, plus a couple more draft picks puts the team into a really strong position.

Whereas gaining Kelly and losing our best wing is a huge problem. If we end up paying a lot more for Kelly than Hill gets then I think it actually sets the team back. Has to be an effective straight swap. Hill is arguably even more valuable too us than Kelly would be (of course it seems he is gone so kind of a moot point).

 

[theGav56]

Agree, I'd be more than OK with a straight swap and something extra, but losing Hill & Langdon just for Kelly doesn't solve our weak list depth.

Unfortunately pick 5/6 by itself doesn't look like Geelong would even entertain it.

Which is exactly how negotiations should start. We need to make our own decisions about that. Would be a pretty brave thing to do if they rejected pick 5 and didn't get a deal done. We need to make it clear that we are happy to take 5 to the draft.

 

[The Joker]

Geelong flexing in the press that they'll only accept two first round picks for Kelly 'at a starting point'. I hope to hell he chooses West Coast. He's a great player but our problem is depth across the full 22 and further, Kelly isn't going to turn us into a finals contender with what we've lost along the way.

Like all teams, our best 22 is very good, but we can not sustain winning & consistent football when we suffer injuries and our history suggests we're going to have them.

Transferring our Hill & Langdon compensation for one player would be a disaster IMO, because the club's trying to pump the brakes on falling membership numbers. I just know Alcock's desperate to show the members something shiny and new entering 2020 as a marketing strategy.

Yep, stand your ground and lose your AA/BnF winner for absolutely nothing by spitting on the 6th selection in the draft that we may offer.

If St Kilda give up pick 5 for Hill (800k/pa fits the trade demand) and we can get a mid second for Langdon, giving them both up seems to much for just Kelly. If they throw in Narkle, well then, I reckon it may get the deal done.

 

[summerthebat]

It will suit us to be inactive in the negotiations (if Kelly is partial to joining either WA side) to propose pick five/six by itself to Geelong as early in the trade period, and step away for as long as possible. It is highly unlikely that WCE will be able to provide anything of the equivalent value without a player attached to their first this year & possibly next year's. A willingness to trade but a passive approach.

 

[wild side]

Geelong want to top 10 picks, as a starter!! Good luck Toast, and i don't think Bell will be that stupid

 

[Simmofreo]

Geelong flexing in the press that they'll only accept two first round picks for Kelly 'at a starting point'. I hope to hell he chooses West Coast. He's a great player but our problem is depth across the full 22 and further, Kelly isn't going to turn us into a finals contender with what we've lost along the way.

Like all teams, our best 22 is very good, but we can not sustain winning & consistent football when we suffer injuries and our history suggests we're going to have them.

Transferring our Hill & Langdon compensation for one player would be a disaster IMO, because the club's trying to pump the brakes on falling membership numbers. I just know Alcock's desperate to show the members something shiny and new entering 2020 as a marketing strategy.

But Kelly and Fyfe in the same team

Boy oh boy

On SM-N960F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[summerthebat]

We had Fyfe & the second brownlow favourite in the same team and that didn't really help.

 

[Quokka]

Yep.

If it were a case of bringing Kelly and not losing Hill, I think an argument could be made that a mid of Kelly's quality, plus a couple more draft picks puts the team into a really strong position.

Whereas gaining Kelly and losing our best wing is a huge problem. If we end up paying a lot more for Kelly than Hill gets then I think it actually sets the team back. Has to be an effective straight swap. Hill is arguably even more valuable too us than Kelly would be (of course it seems he is gone so kind of a moot point).

Agreed, Kelly and no first round would be an interesting dilemma, if Hill could be convinced to stay but Langdon leaves we would need to trade our first round pick (currently 6 I think) and likely leave us with only a couple of second round picks. Still if there were no other surprise exits would you do it?

A midfield of Kelly, Fyfe, Brayshaw, Hill, Walters, Blakely, Tucker

and then there's Cerra, Mundy, Banfield, Giro, Bewley, Valente

We so need more quality young players for the long term but that's not a horrible midfield and a vote of confidence that Freo will be pushing for finals next year. At the very least its a good coaching change and a friendly run with injuries from a much more enjoyable 2019.

 

[theGav56]

It will suit us to be inactive in the negotiations (if Kelly is partial to joining either WA side) to propose pick five/six by itself to Geelong as early in the trade period, and step away for as long as possible. It is highly unlikely that WCE will be able to provide anything of the equivalent value without a player attached to their first this year & possibly next year's. A willingness to trade but a passive approach.

Maybe not even get in early. Just sit back and watch WC and Geelong get frustrated with each other, with Geelong perhaps even coming to us???