List Mgmt. 2021 Draft and Trade Hypotheticals

[Ticky009]

Hi everyone, for those interested some great links plus the Big Footy Draft, Trade & Free Agency twitter as per below:

 

[Membling]

This is not the year to draft a KPD. Gibcus is great and all that but JVR has played like half a season at the position and Bazzo has just sorta been mediocre. The fact that there's only 3 of note in this draft means JVR and Bazzo are gonna be reached for too. We've gotta hold out for 2022, that draft is filled to the brim with tall blokes

2022 does seem to have better talls overall. No harm in getting a tall this draft. Do not see a clear difference between pick 12 -30

Gibcus seems to be rocketing up the charts. We certainly won't get him at 16(18). Seems likely now to go about 6 or 7. That would absorb our top 3 picks if we could find someone to swap with. Won't happen.
The judgement call will be whether JVR or Bazzo (or ??) can reach the standard with the extra year of development or whether we are better off waiting.
Glad it's Kinnear and Simon making that call and not me, but if it was me, I'd rather roll the dice and make a mistake than do nothing.

End of day best available at pic 16(18) and hope we get a slider. Or split it and have multiple picks i the 20s as it is very even past the top few

 

[Kapers]

We didn't really draft any highly rated junior defenders five years ago, as I think we were backing our system of finding late draft gems/rookies/delisted players and turning them into star defenders. But for various reasons, none of Talia, Maibaum, Pink and Melican have been able to make it or definitively keep their place in the team.

But just because we didn't do it then, doesn't mean we shouldn't do it now. Otherwise we're just repeating the same mistakes. We are currently relying on an ambitious trade coup to fix our defender woes. Not drafting one now will mean that down the road we will have to rely on a second ambitious trade coup to fix our defender woes we will have once the current trade target (be it Moore, Barrass or someone else) retires. Exactly how many miraculous big-name defender deals do we think we're gonna be capable of?

As for your point about reaching for a defender instead of taking a mid, as I've said all along, whoever we draft as a mid this year, I'm incredibly dubious about the opportunities they will get in our team. So though a young mid may be rated better than any key defender we'd draft, I think the key defender would actually have the greater chance at making it with us and contributing to a flag.

Tbf, mid was just a random position. I think you should lean towards taking best available, and if you want a player rated lower trade down. I agree that kpd would have a better chance of gametime, but then we should move our picks around so that we can take a KPD. I've advocated getting Hawthorn's picks and taking him with pick 23 or 26.

Also, I'm not saying don't draft a KPD, I'm actually big on taking Bazzo, but I feel that a lot here think that fixes everything. Oh, we'll draft a KPD and compete in 3 years.
I feel that's a complete waste of the list that we have to just give up on it for the next few years. I mean the swans were clearly trying to entice Barras because they know how close we are.

 

[caesar88]

Tbf, mid was just a random position. I think you should lean towards taking best available, and if you want a player rated lower trade down. I agree that kpd would have a better chance of gametime, but then we should move our picks around so that we can take a KPD. I've advocated getting Hawthorn's picks and taking him with pick 23 or 26.

Also, I'm not saying don't draft a KPD, I'm actually big on taking Bazzo, but I feel that a lot here think that fixes everything. Oh, we'll draft a KPD and compete in 3 years.
I feel that's a complete waste of the list that we have to just give up on it for the next few years. I mean the swans were clearly trying to entice Barras because they know how close we are.

Fair enough. I can't speak for anyone else but I don't think drafting a KPD will fix the current issue (unless we get really lucky). But it's more about what can we do about it? Trade period's over, the next one is twelve months away, and even then there's no guarantee it will produce the star defender we need. So the next-best thing we can do is try to make our key defender stocks as sound as possible so that we don't have this same problem 3-4 years away.

Our best case scenario in drafting a defender would be to let him develop, and then trying to trade in a star defender who can fill in for the 3-4 years while that drafted defender develops. But even in the worst case where we don't trade in that star defender, at least we'd have one in 3-4 years that we've developed. That is better than nothing, which is what we'll potentially have if we put all of our eggs into one big trade basket.

 

[ShireSwan]

We need to draft one now because in 5 years time we will be in the same position.
Why not rookie some VFL KPD. Surely there is some dominant KPD out there somewhere in the lower leagues.

Q. Who wants to work in Eastern Sydney for 80k?
A. Nobody.

 

[Ticky009]

This annoys me, I'm not surprised by any means, but it still annoys me.

Rival clubs expect Hawthorn, which has acquired defenders Will Day

12

Will Day

Age

23

Ht

191cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.5

4star

K

10.0

4star

HB

7.5

5star

M

5.0

5star

T

1.0

3star

CL

0.5

2star

D

17.5

4star

K

10.0

4star

HB

7.5

4star

M

5.0

5star

T

1.0

2star

CL

0.5

3star

D

17.5

5star

K

10.0

4star

HB

7.5

5star

M

5.0

5star

T

1.0

3star

CL

0.5

3star

and Denver Grainger-Barras with their past two first-round picks, to target a midfielder this year with the club to undoubtedly consider Northern Knights midfielder Josh Ward at their selection.

Ward’s great grandfather Alex Lee played 31 games for the club between 1933 and 1935. It’s understood his preference is to remain in Victoria next season.

 

[ShireSwan]

Van Rooyen doesn't really make a difference either. We can't bank on him transforming our back 6, most key defenders take a few years before they can hold their own

Kid wheighs 91 kg as an 17/18 year old. I'm going out on a limb and saying he's not going to take 5 years to contribute. Tommy McCartin didn't.
I think we have to take him if he's there. If not him, then Aleer (who is two years older).

 

[brad cooper]

This annoys me, I'm not surprised by any means, but it still annoys me.

Rival clubs expect Hawthorn, which has acquired defenders Will Day and Denver Grainger-Barras with their past two first-round picks, to target a midfielder this year with the club to undoubtedly consider Northern Knights midfielder Josh Ward at their selection.

Ward’s great grandfather Alex Lee played 31 games for the club between 1933 and 1935. It’s understood his preference is to remain in Victoria next season.

Hate to say it but this situation is going to get worse in my opinion.

Median house prices capital cities
Sydney 1.3 million
Melbourne 960k
Brisbane 700k
Adelaide 575k
Perth 550k

 

[caesar88]

Hate to say it but this situation is going to get worse in my opinion.

Median house prices capital cities
Sydney 1.3 million
Melbourne 960k
Brisbane 700k
Adelaide 575k
Perth 550k

Not even sure it's entirely affordability-related. I think the Victorian draft prospects just have the advantage of being able to be a bit fussier about where they are drafted to as there's up to 10 clubs who they could go to and still be home.

 

[rustycrate]

Q. Who wants to work in Eastern Sydney for 80k?
A. Nobody.

More to footy than just $$$. Exposure. Foot in the door. Experience. Elite training.
Open your mind to possibilities.

 

[Wolftone]

Reid was amongst the best players in the early games 2021 then was injured and failed to play out to the same level on comeback. The Reid hate is entirely erroneous. I know that's not popular but I'm damn sure if he can recapture that early form in 2022 he would be a valuable addition.

Reid got his 1 year deal. But I think with his injury history and his inability after a stint on the sidelines to get any form his days must be numbered. I don't hate Sammy. I just think there comes a time and his is here.

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[Kiama Chris]

Hate to say it but this situation is going to get worse in my opinion.

Median house prices capital cities
Sydney 1.3 million
Melbourne 960k
Brisbane 700k
Adelaide 575k
Perth 550k

The reality is actually far worse as the median includes housing in Penrith and Campbelltown. A 3br unit in Coogee to rent? Sell your first born.

 

[RUNVS]

The reality is actually far worse as the median includes housing in Penrith and Campbelltown. A 3br unit in Coogee to rent? Sell your first born.

Someone highly rates their firstborn.

 

[Wolftone]

Who says?

I've seen King mentioned in a couple of places, but other than one draft site* who listed a whole bunch of players (across the Northern academy ranks) I've seen nothing to indicate a crop of potential AFL players from our academy for next year.

Given the lack of playing time for these guys over the last two seasons I'd be surprised anyone could confidently predict how they have developed or how they will perform next season.

*https://afl.draftcentral.com.au/2021/09/13/ones-to-watch-2022-northern-academy-prospects/

Early U17 matches were played against Suns & GWS. Up until mid season. The NSWAFL comps, Independent and Public Schools comps were operating until the announcement on the 16th August cancelling the season. So plenty of both school, local and Academy footy.

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[Wolftone]

Trying to be objective at least lol…I mean he can’t be worse than Melican in defence I guess…oh and he might last 10 games…

That’s all I’ve got.

Melican's early part of the year was very good. Up until injury. After that he found it difficult to get back his rhythm. He was OK in the end. I think too many on here make him out to be a shit player. He is not. He is actually a very good back. His forte is not playing on the Giants but on players like Cameron. But he is being asked to play on guys like Charlie, Hawkins etc which was not his normal duty when Reg was around. He is learning to play on these players but I believe we need another Reg to play on these guys. Maibaum was going to be that guy. But...

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[Wolftone]

I can't disagree more. He has always struggled but has been assisted in the past by having some very good defenders around him.

He has never been able to keep up with players on the lead. He cant do it.

He will try 100% for you but he is not a capable of defender. Hes not even adequate. Hes what you get after you have paid everyone else lots of money

I disagree completely.

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[Wolftone]

That's a tad harsh. I have seen Melican play some very good games (usually just before he gets injured), however he has the most thankless task on the field. He has to stand next to some of the BEST forwards in the entire country and we expect him to beat them. These forwards are regarded as the best because they beat nearly every backman they are put up against. Unless you are one of the best backmen in the comp, you simply cannot consistently beat them and you have to rely on your teammates to help out. In fact, the fullbacks for about 14 other clubs have to do the same. Nobody has ever claimed that Melican is one of the best backmen in the comp but he is servicable and, like MOST other fullbacks in the league, relies heavily on the assistance of his teamates.
I honestly think we need to cut him some slack. Will he consistently beat the best forwards in the game? No, but nobody else does, either.

He touched up Cameron in the game against Cats.

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[Wolftone]

Look Tom McCartin

30

Tom Mccartin

Age

25

Ht

194cm

Wt

99kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.3

2star

K

5.6

2star

HB

3.7

3star

M

3.7

4star

T

1.6

4star

MG

129.5

2star

D

7.2

2star

K

4.4

2star

HB

2.8

2star

M

3.2

3star

T

0.8

1star

MG

87.4

2star

D

9.0

3star

K

5.0

2star

HB

4.0

3star

M

2.8

3star

T

2.0

4star

MG

168.0

3star

has and will have his colours lowered in future. However he always offers something because he has some footy IQ.

Melican just lacks any apparent footy IQ - to my eyes anyway.

Do you use a guide dog?

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[rustycrate]

Early U17 matches were played against Suns & GWS. Up until mid season. The NSWAFL comps, Independent and Public Schools comps were operating until the announcement on the 16th August cancelling the season. So plenty of both school, local and Academy footy.

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I think my nephew's Swans academy U17 side played 2 games in 2021. Few opportunities.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Melican's early part of the year was very good. Up until injury. After that he found it difficult to get back his rhythm. He was OK in the end. I think too many on here make him out to be a sh*t player. He is not. He is actually a very good back. His forte is not playing on the Giants but on players like Cameron. But he is being asked to play on guys like Charlie, Hawkins etc which was not his normal duty when Reg was around. He is learning to play on these players but I believe we need another Reg to play on these guys. Maibaum was going to be that guy. But...

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We have McCartin for that role though. We lead a gorilla defender it’s a huge issue

 

[Jewelsbon]

We have McCartin for that role though. We lead a gorilla defender it’s a huge issue

His brother

 

[LukeParkerno1]

His brother

More than happy to take the punt it’s a gamble though with his other issues

 

[Grand Uncle Horace]

Do you use a guide dog?

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woof

 

[Dubai Quacker]

We were going to take DGB last year, until McD surprisingly was still there at 4.

I’m sure we’ll be scanning the draft pool again this year for a tall defender.

Bazzo looks the goods to me.

 

[Dubai Quacker]

More to footy than just $$$. Exposure. Foot in the door. Experience. Elite training.
Open your mind to possibilities.

Coogee Bay Hotel & girls therein.

 

[cherub]

More to footy than just $$$. Exposure. Foot in the door. Experience. Elite training.
Open your mind to possibilities.

If you've got any aptitude for a finance career, the Swans is the place to be. Even GWS seems to have good connections. Matt Deboer's footy payments would be inconsequential ( well, a bit) compared to the entree into the Sydney business world, and mentoring.