List Mgmt. 2021 Draft and Trade Hypotheticals

[Ticky009]

Hi everyone, for those interested some great links plus the Big Footy Draft, Trade & Free Agency twitter as per below:

 

[caesar88]

Bloody hell. I'd wager Geelong will take him just before our second pick, but if not...

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Why the ruck merry-go-round put this draft prospect in a spin

Toby Conway is shaping up as one of the draft's best pure ruck prospects

www.afl.com.au

I really hope that we as a club are better than taking players just because they want to be here to play with their relatives...

 

[Kiama Chris]

I really hope that we as a club are better than taking players just because they want to be here to play with their relatives...

Of course we are.

 

[Kiama Chris]

I really hope that we as a club are better than taking players just because they want to be here to play with their relatives...

He sounds a very grounded young man. The Sydney stuff was really a bit of fun.
We have a pretty good set up now I think.
Naismith surely retires
Hickey plays one or two more seasons and is replaced by Ladhams
Ladhams is replaced by Amartey
Sinclair plays next year in ressies mentoring McAndrew and Amartey then retires
King (?) is drafted end of next year.
McAndrew rucks in ressies with King as back up.
All quite nicely sequenced.

 

[hairy biker]

Matt Rendell article on his top 6 from the 2019 U16 championships;

A recruiter’s notes on the AFL draft crop of 2021

“Not a big head.” “Never seen a player get from contest to contest with such ease.” “Good luck tackling him.” Nick Daicos was one of the under-16s assessed by former Collingwood recruiter Matt Rendell back in 2019. Here’s what he had to say.

www.brisbanetimes.com.au

His top six at that time;

1. Josh Sinn
2. Nick Daicos
3. Jason Horne-Francis
4. Tyler Sonsie
5. Campbell Chesser
6. Joshua Rachele

He does make the point that Sam Darcy, Finn Callaghan, Mac Andrew, Jye Amiss, Neil Erasmus and Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera – (in his words) all projected top 10 selections – didn’t even play at the under-16 championships.
He also mentions that at Collingwood, the recruiters used to try to predict the top 15 in February in the year of the draft and nine out of 15 has been the best result.

Basically the upshot is that given such little football in Victoria (where ~60% of draftees come from) over the past 2 seasons this draft is even more unpredictable than ever.
Not groundbreaking but going to be fascinating to watch it unfold next week.

 

[caesar88]

Would be great if we got Sonsie

 

[Bandicoot]

This is not a solution but an unhelpful lament, but there are quite a few players I would consider dead weight still on our list. Had we delisted even just one or two of them, we may have more list spots available to accommodate Anderson with a national draft pick.

Couldn't agree more. Cannot believe that we still have Ronke on the primary list.

 

[Bandicoot]

After pick 73 there is no points allocated to said pick.
Free match. Just means a player would have to be delisted to accommodate. But seeing as we operate with a reduced list size already may not be a problem

I realise that. It's not a case of matching a bid . Once we have passed, which we will do after taking our three selections, we can no longer take any player in the draft. So, if a club nominates Anderson with pick 73 for example, there is nothing we can do to prevent them taking him.
Having resigned all of Ronke, Reid and O'Connor we will not have any room for Anderson on our primary list anyway.

 

[Bandicoot]

Also re: Anderson, I think the reason we have 70 still listed is that we can still use it. If we passed there, then technically we'd have pick 88 available (since 70 wasn't used). We're still listed as having 88 on the AFL site. Now if we passed there and one of the 6 teams with picks left still had one to use and bid, we'd still be able to wrangle a pick swap and trade back in, if a later club of those 6 didn't want to use their 5th rounder. Probably not going to be an issue at all if we still have access to 88 to match a bid, as long as we haven't already taken 4.

I believe that once you have passed on a pick - that's it. You are no longer able to take any further player.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

I believe that once you have passed on a pick - that's it. You are no longer able to take any further player.

Correct once you pass that’s it you are done till the rookie draft

 

[Kiama Chris]

I don't think anyone expects Conway to go in the first round

Probably mid second round. Not our need though. Sounds a good kid.

 

[Dubai Quacker]

Dawson is going to Port, he doesn't want to miss finals for a few years while the Crows rebuild. The Power have a strong young core that will compete for years. Port are happy to offer up one of their firsts, and the Swans will also ask the question of Hayes again. Hayes has more interest in the Swans this time around because Ladhams and Lycett are both ahead of him, he still hasn't debuted, and the Swans are now finals bound for the foreseeable future. If he doesn't want to move, then they will ask for a future pick with pick swaps involved if necessary to make sure the Power are covered. They found it pretty easy to deal with Port last year. The Aliir trade got Hickey and both teams were very happy with how it worked out. The media and fan narrative of the Swans being screwed doesn't hold true inside the club, who view it as win-win.

Dawson is seen as important to both SA clubs because they're no longer sure about Lukosious leaving the Suns next year. Across the league, clubs think that if the Suns push for finals next year, Rankine will be the only gettable young player out of their list as they all have formed a very tight bond and he is the only one struggling with being away from his family. If they start to find success, the only way to get players out of the Suns will be to offer them a lot more money than Gold Coast can, something that is difficult to plan for year to year with Covid inflicted cap uncertainty.

Hewett is now expected to get Band 2 compo due to the lack of inside mids on the market. Carlton are still favourites for his signature, but a couple more clubs have started to ask the question now that Hopper has extended with GWS. This is driving Hewetts price up, and he is looking to make the most of it now that he has a young family. He wants this contract to set him up.

Stephens, McLean, and Wicks will all extend in the next 2 weeks. With Hewett and Dawson going, Stephens now sees opportunities for himself at a contender. The extra cap space from their departures, along with Kennedy's discount deal and Reid's likely departure, means McLean will get the payrise and longer contract he's looking for. Wicks is a local lad and just wants a fair deal.

Fox has had some queries as he is an unrestricted free agent, but will only leave if he gets offered a 3 year (or 2+1) contract by another club, which hasn't been offered by anyone, he's just advised clubs of what it will take to get him. At his age he would like a bit of job security and he knows a 3 year contract will likely see him through to retirement. Length of contract is more important to him than money.

The Swans are philosophical about Dawson and Hewett going. Again, the list management team don't view things like fans do, they and the coaches feel that Dawson is close to his ceiling (AA squad) and that they have the players already to replace both. Blakey, Campbell, McInerney, Rowbottom, Warner, and Stephens all shape to be the biggest beneficiaries and the club is happy to back them in. They think all of those 6 have AA 22 ceilings. They also know that if they can clear out enough cap space this year, it will be the only real big year for departures. The new TV rights deal and the new CBA have to be negotiated by end of 2024. They have positioned themselves accordingly.

With two first rounders in their pocket, the Swans are going to try to move up into the top 5 to land Gibcus. They also have interest in Conway (though this is dependent on Hayes), Schlensog, Aleer, and Paddy McCartin, the first 3 they expect to be available in the second round, so they don't see the need to hold 2 1st rounders and are instead aiming for quality. Paddy has been advised he will be taken in the rookie draft.

There are some other players that they like the look of, but the Swans value work ethic on the same level of talent. It's easier to develop a player who is willing to put in the work. This is a central tenet to their recruiting philosophy, they know players are going to leave. That's the reality of being a northern club. Sydney have decided to embrace it and will look to sell high every chance they get. They will then back in their development to get the best out of their replacements. This shift in thinking occurred when they received the trade ban was placed on the club. Develop internally, sell high, keep a rotation of young players coming through and keep the best ones for themselves. Don't expect any more pursuit of big names. If one comes up the club will obviously hold discussions, but the growing footy knowledge of local fans, combined with the increased popularity of players like Papley, Heeney, Gulden, and others has the club convinced that marketability can be found across the squad. The Hayward/Papley videos, the Rampe robe response, and a few others, convinced the club to embrace their personalities. Doubly so for local boys like Heeney and Gulden.

This "embrace the churn" approach is something all northern teams are now adopting after seeing how well it works for the Giants. The northern teams don't view the Giants as constantly on the edge of failure like the heartland press portray. They see a conveyor belt of young talent that allows them to regenerate around a core that has been locked away. The Kelly, Greene, and Coniglio deals are seen as good business, form is temporary, class is permanent.

COLA is never going to come back, but the Dawson departure and the Neale rumours have sent a considerable shock through the AFL. When the NGA bidding changes were announced, a few Victorian clubs wanted a timeframe for the northern academies to have the same rules. Watching two stars of finals teams consider moving back due to homesickness of the player or their partner has basically put that to bed. The AFL doesn't want to hear any complaints about the northern academies right now.

This is my final post.

Where’s SparkleLord when you need a bit of inside info / complete bulls**t (take your pick) regarding the draft?

I kinda miss the fella.

 

[Slingshot Footy]

Why does this have you in stitches particularly?

I mean it's a bit of a simplification, but have you not noticed that amount of 27yo+ players that head to Geelong? Do you reckon that might have something to do with wife and kids? Lifestyle in retirement etc?

It stands to reason that if Jordan Dawson had found himself a local Sydney girl who desired to stay in Sydney then there is a far greater chance that Jordan Dawson would still be a Sydney player.

Of all of the ridiculous sh*t that gets raised on this board, that is hardly the most so.

Not once did I knock the notion of family unit playing a role in player retention but you can still bloody laugh at the general idea. Imagine, you're a player in the locker room showing the team half of our drivel when suddenly you stumble upon a post that suggests you're leaving the club because you so happen to be clapping cheeks with someone outside of Sydney's eastern suburbs.

One poster even cheekily suggested we start a Swans WAGs academy from memory. XD

Forgive me for being so self-entertained but you have to laugh sometimes, otherwise, where's the fun in reading all of these hypotheses?

 

[ShireSwan]

I really hope that we as a club are better than taking players just because they want to be here to play with their relatives...

Because so many interstate players are dying to come?

I previously wanted him because he was the best ruck available in the draft, AND having cousins in the club already would make him more likely to stay long term. It's true that Ladhams makes him a whole lot less of a priority. But I reckon he's going to be a real good ruck for a long time. Just a bit of a shame we have such a good prospect who wants to come, but we can't use him.

 

[dosser]

T

Where’s SparkleLord when you need a bit of inside info / complete bulls**t (take your pick) regarding the draft?

I kinda miss the fella.

To be fair, they threw a lot of darts and a couple of them hit. They said we will lose Dawson and Hewett and that is all (although maybe Reid). They said we will get a ruckman in return (Hayes). They said Stephens, Wicks and McLean will all re-sign.

They got the Dawson destination wrong as well as the name of the ruckman we traded for, but the rest was pretty close.

 

[Ticky009]

Yearly draft guide has been released always a good read and it's free!

 

[Ticky009]

And here's the page for Angus Anderson

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

Sorry haven't kept up with the draft thread at all after trade week was over is it realistic that Anderson will still be there till our first pick?

Looks exactly what we need from his bio.

 

[Ticky009]

Sorry haven't kept up with the draft thread at all after trade week was over is it realistic that Anderson will still be there till our first pick?

Looks exactly what we need from his bio.

He's listed as he'll be taken in Rookie Draft, but some posters on here and I feel that he's good enough to get his name called out during the draft but as a later pick maybe 3rd round.

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

He's listed as he'll be taken in Rookie Draft, but some posters on here and I feel that he's good enough to get his name called out during the draft but as a later pick maybe 3rd round.

Oh wow totally different value than what i originally thought

 

[Kiama Chris]

He's listed as he'll be taken in Rookie Draft, but some posters on here and I feel that he's good enough to get his name called out during the draft but as a later pick maybe 3rd round.

Played some VFL and held his own. Might have to match between 39 and 77 with 77 and swapped future 4th or 5th.
If we pass at 77 and someone picks him up we're stuffed. Unlikely but not impossible. Prefer to take him as a Cat B rookie of course.

 

[TheMase]

I believe that once you have passed on a pick - that's it. You are no longer able to take any further player.

Easy fix, particularly if we won’t use the pick unless Anderson gets bid on in the main draft.

When we get to pick 70, or whatever it is, trade it to someone else still drafting players (say pick 76 just for examples sale). Just keep trading down until the draft is over rather than passing.

 

[Ticky009]

Midfielders in the draft

Kevin Sheehan reveals his top NAB AFL Draft Prospects: Medium/Tall Midfielders

AFL Talent Ambassador Kevin Sheehan reveals his latest batch of prospects

www.afl.com.au

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Easy fix, particularly if we won’t use the pick unless Anderson gets bid on in the main draft.

When we get to pick 70, or whatever it is, trade it to someone else still drafting players (say pick 76 just for examples sale). Just keep trading down until the draft is over rather than passing.

This is what we might do. I still wished we had another spot, no idea what Ronke is doing on the list still.

 

[Kiama Chris]

Midfielders in the draft

Kevin Sheehan reveals his top NAB AFL Draft Prospects: Medium/Tall Midfielders

AFL Talent Ambassador Kevin Sheehan reveals his latest batch of prospects

www.afl.com.au

All positives, nothing to improve on. Not really useful in discriminating between them. The same 4 or 5 you can sense he really rates but after that - caveat emptor.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

All positives, nothing to improve on. Not really useful in discriminating between them. The same 4 or 5 you can sense he really rates but after that - caveat emptor.

Watch him on the draft coverage you'd swear every player is the next Ablett, Franklin and Martin. Has nothing negative to say. He comes across great on TV and credit there, but his analysis or lack of is weird.