List Mgmt. 2021 Draft and Trade Hypotheticals
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I'm more of the opinion that approaching a flag window, and if we have 3 spots to fill, you bank the talent sooner, get them developing. I'm even of the opinion we could use our future 2nd to improve this years hand (then next year if we need to get a 2nd or 3rd rounder back on the board, can use our or Dees 1st in a trade, depending on where those are / where King might go).
If we moved back and we're pretty sure we'll get 2 players at 31 and 39 that we rate, yeah ok a future pick would be nice, but could even get 39 moved up to early 30s, thus improving our chances of 2 of the other ones we're linked with. Corey Warner as a hybrid is starting to get rated around the edges of top 30, Dittmar (inside) we've met with several times apparently, Sheldrick (also making noises around the top 30) is rated by some on here and sounds like an absolute workhorse with great positioning, something that we'd be keen on.
Better analysis than the usual from Fox but the same names keep popping up. Hopefully recruiters can see the value in others as well.Midfield depth and defensive stocks come on down.
The young gun every club should consider taking with its first AFL draft pick
The young star EVERY AFL club should take with its first draft pick to fix biggest flawwww.foxsports.com.au
LukeParkerno1
Post-Human
If you want to get him that's fine but trade down bank an extra pick next year in the process. Don't see why you take someone rated 25 at 18, that is reaching. I don't like it and never have in the first round. Best available simple.
LukeParkerno1
Post-Human
I've been a fan of flipping our future second for one this year no idea what that means with list spots though. I'm a fan of getting another second in this year.
Cal Twomey's Phantom Form Guide: Top draft prospects' October ranking (afl.com.au)
JVR or Butler
18 - SAM BUTLER
Midfielder/forward
184cm/76kg
10/2/03
Greater Western Victoria Rebels/Vic Country
Butler reminded recruiters of his all-round capabilities with a strong Combine showing, leading the Vic Country testing for the 20-metre sprint (2.97 seconds) as well as finishing second in the standing vertical jump (71cm) and running vertical jump (87cm) tests. The younger brother of St Kilda forward Dan, the Rebels talent had an impressive season, including a 27-disposal performance to finish his year in the NAB League. Butler is a smart midfielder/forward who impacts games with clever ball use and quick decisions.
21 - JACOB VAN ROOYEN
Forward/defender
193cm/91kg
16/4/03
Claremont/Western Australia
It was a bumpy beginning to the year for van Rooyen as he battled glandular fever while stepping up to senior level with Claremont. But he got going in the second half of the season in particular, finding his groove as a key defender before again switching forward and booting 24 goals in the final six colts games of his season. He also kicked the match-winner for Western Australia in its championships game against South Australia at Optus Stadium.
JVR or Butler
18 - SAM BUTLER
Midfielder/forward
184cm/76kg
10/2/03
Greater Western Victoria Rebels/Vic Country
Butler reminded recruiters of his all-round capabilities with a strong Combine showing, leading the Vic Country testing for the 20-metre sprint (2.97 seconds) as well as finishing second in the standing vertical jump (71cm) and running vertical jump (87cm) tests. The younger brother of St Kilda forward Dan, the Rebels talent had an impressive season, including a 27-disposal performance to finish his year in the NAB League. Butler is a smart midfielder/forward who impacts games with clever ball use and quick decisions.
21 - JACOB VAN ROOYEN
Forward/defender
193cm/91kg
16/4/03
Claremont/Western Australia
It was a bumpy beginning to the year for van Rooyen as he battled glandular fever while stepping up to senior level with Claremont. But he got going in the second half of the season in particular, finding his groove as a key defender before again switching forward and booting 24 goals in the final six colts games of his season. He also kicked the match-winner for Western Australia in its championships game against South Australia at Optus Stadium.
LukeParkerno1
Post-Human
Easy decision JVR.
How many forward/mids do we need? I like Butler but of all sides not sure the Swans are the one. Think he'll go earlier anyway.
Haven't been keeping a close eye, but I think we can take 3 or 4 no problems. If the choice is 4 picks at the ND or keeping Ronke for example, I'll take 4 picks. Personally I think we're more likely to take 3. So use our future 2nd sure, but more to move a current pick up the board. Our future 2nd is probably not going to net us higher than late 30s on its own though, if we were to draft 4, so it may not help us in getting some of those we're linked with that will probably go between 30-40.
LukeParkerno1
Post-Human
Yeah honestly I'm not sure with list spots, think you are right though. An extra second seems better and then we can fractionally reach at 18.
Wouldnt be surprised if Goater goes quite early. His skillset looks transferrable to AFL and his disposal is fine.
Class of 2021: Check out what draft prospect Josh Goater can do (afl.com.au)
Class of 2021: Check out what draft prospect Josh Goater can do (afl.com.au)
- Apr 26, 2016
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I just think it would pay to be less rigid on how you view the draft and look less at the individuals and more at what we want out of our draft hand. Every selection the club makes will have a knock-on effect for the rest of it's picks, and every draftee we take makes up the overall draft haul. If using our first pick on a certain type of player we wanted compromises our ability to get other types we wanted later in the draft, then the overall draft haul has been lessened just so we could justify how we used our first.
A far more acute strategy that I reckon we've pivoted to in recent years is to assess how to fill all of our draft objectives (ie. draft an inside mid, outside mid, and key defender) across all of our picks to get the very best overall draft haul we can, not just purely the best first selection. If we end up getting everything we wanted to get out of the draft, does it really matter where we took them?
LukeParkerno1
Post-Human
It does if we overpay and could have banked something extra next year by trading down. You aren' maximising your return on your selections.
Grand Uncle Horace
Shake down the thunder
Thanks so much SP! Not sure it is the fella I am thinking of. But love that you came up with another Foxy!!!.
The bloke I am thinking of did not play a game. However the Foxy you found could be the fella but he would have been playing on one leg.
replicant
Premiership Player
Anyone else feeling uninspired by the draft this year?
Last draft was exciting. We had a really early pick, we had Campbell and Gulden...
This year all I can think is Dawson is gone and we have a "whatever is left after everyone else takes their first round pick" type selection. Normally I'd be reading phantoms and player profiles. This year I just want the draft over and I'll trust our recruiters to get it right(ish).
Last draft was exciting. We had a really early pick, we had Campbell and Gulden...
This year all I can think is Dawson is gone and we have a "whatever is left after everyone else takes their first round pick" type selection. Normally I'd be reading phantoms and player profiles. This year I just want the draft over and I'll trust our recruiters to get it right(ish).
I'm both annoyed at our losses and think they'll have more impact than a lot of revisionist stuff I've read, but also excited for the draft. Given our drafting history, and the apparent levelness of the draft from pick 10 through to 40 apparently, there's plenty to be gained. When you think of players like Rowbottom, McCartin, McInerney, Warner in recent years and the likes of Parker, Goodes earlier on, all roughly within the range of our picks, there's plenty you can get excited about.
The Swans football department would have been pissing themselves laughing at that comment on ‘not high enough quality’.
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I like the idea of choosing players for a variety of roles. We need a KPD, but they might also be a possible KPF or even a ruckman. Conway is a cousin of McCartin's and is already 205cm - any possibility of him becoming a KPD or KPD. He is touted as the best available ruck prospect, but if he is good mark and can read the play?
- Apr 26, 2016
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I am not so sure about that. Assuming Heeney is added into the mix next year, we will have six capable inside mids: JPK, Parker, Heeney, Mills, Rowbottom and Warner. We generally only run with four main guys getting substantial inside rotations, so two of those players will already be missing out on major minutes on the inside as it is and having to adapt to different roles in the meantime.
Horse's preferred four at the beginning of the year was Parker, Mills and Rowbottom, with JPK on the bench. Let's just say that the doomsday scenario occurs and Mills and JPK pick up where they left off this year and miss games to injury next year. It would be fairly easy to slot Heeney and Warner in with Parker and Rowbottom and have relatively few interruptions to the core inside brigade. Throw in the fact that we also want to increase the minutes of other young mids, like Florent, Gulden, Campbell and Stephens to give us a bit of a different look too.
That's a queue of ten players vying for minutes at the centre bounces next year. And I know that those last few guys are young and developing, but unless we plan on drafting David Mundy, our first year midfielder we draft will be young and developing too.
- Sep 24, 2014
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Beatson spoke on this topic in an interview prior to last year's draft.
His drafting philosophy has been the one you've outlined, but he indicated that Dalrymple, certainly early in the draft, had a different outlook.
Dalrymple has an ordered list of say 30 players and ticks them off as they are selected, so in the scenario you outlined above if Chesser was next on his list he'd select him, irrespective of the availability of players later in the draft.
Unfortunately I can't find the interview, but I thought it interesting that the two had such differing strategies.
In the interview Beatson indicated that last year Dalrymple had responsibility for our first pick.
With our draft hand this year and the seeming preponderance of mids compared to KPPs I'd be inclined to think we may favour Beatson's methodology.
In Kinmon we trust.
Van Rooyen can do both KPD and KPF, even one write up suggested he could pinch hit as an undersized ruck or as a tall mid sparingly. I'd suspect it'll just be one of the key posts, but Reid has been able to do a few roles (when fit), so could be that type.
Bazzo was a KPF, now seen as one of the better KPDs.
I was big on Conway, but then heard more about King next year (academy) and we got Ladhams, so less of a need now. Think the two above are going to be the more versatile, while filling needs.
Until draft night comes and it shows Chad bursting into the booth at pick 18, wrenching the mouse away, picking out his brother with a single smooth movement, and then belting out the door again to the cheers from his family on the Fox coverage over the PA.In Kinmon we trust.
- Oct 18, 2018
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I heard Conway was pretty raw. May take 4 years + to mature. King is available next year so no.
- Apr 26, 2016
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Beatson spoke on this topic in an interview prior to last year's draft.
His drafting philosophy has been the one you've outlined, but he indicated that Dalrymple, certainly early in the draft, had a different outlook.
Dalrymple has an ordered list of say 30 players and ticks them off as they are selected, so in the scenario you outlined above if Chesser was next on his list he'd select him, irrespective of the availability of players later in the draft.
Unfortunately I can't find the interview, but I thought it interesting that the two had such differing strategies.
In the interview Beatson indicated that last year Dalrymple had responsibility for our first pick.
With our draft hand this year and the seeming preponderance of mids compared to KPPs I'd be inclined to think we may favour Beatson's methodology.
In Kinmon we trust.
Interesting... Maybe I am off on that one then. I guess it's too hard to tell what Dalrymple's philosophy early in the draft is, since he's not really had to do a whole lot where that's concerned! In his time at the Swans he's made a grand total of two first round selections (Stephens in 2019 and Logan last year.)
But I'd also be curious as to what exactly his ordered list of 30 players is based on. For example is it pure ability? Is it positional need? How would he compare a brute 195cm defender with a nuggety 180cm inside mid? Or an athletic ruck prospect with a dynamic small forward? I'm not sure how he would. So his order would probably reflect his preference for the type of player he's after, which in itself would come back to Beatson's outlook of trying to fulfil the club's broader draft objectives across all the picks.
I'm sure they do a helluva lot of cross-referencing and over-ruling of each other's calls, despite the united front they may try to convey. And to be honest, that's exactly how a recruiting team should work IMO. Healthy debate and mutual input to eventually reach a mutual agreement. Have heard some horror stories out of both WA clubs tbh about how their recruitment groups are more like dictatorships that turn into echo chambers come draft night...
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