List Mgmt. 2021 Draft and Trade Hypotheticals

[Ticky009]

Hi everyone, for those interested some great links plus the Big Footy Draft, Trade & Free Agency twitter as per below:

 

[Ticky009]

A few of these players in this article linked to Swans so worth a post here

10 young stars are polarising AFL club recruiters. These are their wide draft ranges

WA clubs to battle over 190cm giant; question over key prospect: 10 AFL Draft wildcards

www.foxsports.com.au

 

[dosser]

The whole Beatson-Dalrymple set up / relationship is an interesting one. Surely they work together on a strategy leading up to the draft and build in some contingencies depending on what cards are dealt on the night. Or does Dalrymple essentially check out after our first pick, then says "over to you Kinnear?"

Having live trading as an option gives Beatson a bit more flexibilty after that point. Wouldn't be surprised if we get involved some picks trading on the night to react to how things play out and who we have our eye on. Possibly for a mid 20's pick this year, we'll see. Think we did that with the Rowbottom pick and Gould pick. Although will be difficult to get the Bulldog's pick 23 this way, as that will be needed earlier for points for Darcy.

I'm inclined to think that Dalrymple's strategy of 'best available' works well with Beatson's 'needs-based' strategy. We can see Dalrymple's strategy when we look at the Bulldogs team - it is a team of midfielders who would have been best-available at the draft so if they needed a tall but none were good enough, he simply picked another midfielder.
We can compare that to Beatson who is a magician in the later rounds when he is able to draft according to our needs, and he obviously has an eye for the hidden gem. The perceived problem with Beatson was that he didn't get the first round right as this was usually a time for 'best available'.
Now we have combined Dalrymple and Beatson to get Dal's choice of best available in the first round, followed by Beatson's magic in subsequent rounds. I'm pretty sure that is how it plays out, however there would obviously be a lot of interaction between the two of them for every pick.

 

[replicant]

What I wouldn't give to have a copy of that video - so I can link to it every time some numpty whinges about how we got Gulden for a steal.

Found it. Gulden discussion is at 108 minutes.

To correct my statements after re-watching: He says Gulden is 172/173. He says he is likely to go second round, but that Knightmare doesn't rate him in his top 65 players. He says he has good evasion and disposal, but is not a great tackler, lacks a good contested game, and doesn't really have a spot on the ground due to height.

 

[RUNVS]

Found it. Gulden discussion is at 108 minutes.

To correct my statements after re-watching: He says Gulden is 172/173. He says he is likely to go second round, but that Knightmare doesn't rate him in his top 65 players. He says he has good evasion and disposal, but is not a great tackler, lacks a good contested game, and doesn't really have a spot on the ground due to height.

I don't see why everyone is so bothered by this. Even recruiters who are paid to do this sort of thing make huge mistakes with their draft analysis.

 

[Kapers]

I mean, I listen to Chris Doree, but I don't take his word as gospel.

He watches his fair share of matches, so he's better than nothing imo, but his words should be taken as an opinion.

 

[replicant]

I don't see why everyone is so bothered by this. Even recruiters who are paid to do this sort of thing make huge mistakes with their draft analysis.

I don't think anyone is "so bothered". It's been a reasonably tame discussion on how we think one draft expert might not be that expert.

Ticky009 said they wanted to see the video so I found it.

 

[Ticky009]

I don't think anyone is "so bothered". It's been a reasonably tame discussion on how we think one draft expert might not be that expert.

Ticky009 said they wanted to see the video so I found it.

Thank you!

 

[dosser]

I don't think anyone is "so bothered". It's been a reasonably tame discussion on how we think one draft expert might not be that expert.

Ticky009 said they wanted to see the video so I found it.

So now you are blaming Ticky for instigating this violent spat?

 

[ShireSwan]

All we needed to be premiership contenders was not lose Dawson.

Draft won't fix that today.

If we'd kept Dawson,
Brought in Ladhams
And picked up Weitering for our first and Melbourne's first the following year.
AND have no injuries to a best 20 player.

We'd have been a chance at a GF.

But we lost Dawson, we'll get a rookie KPD instead,
and chances are injuries will strike.

So we might scrape into the finals.

 

[Crust]

If we'd kept Dawson,
Brought in Ladhams
And picked up Weitering for our first and Melbourne's first the following year.
AND have no injuries to a best 20 player.

We'd have been a chance at a GF.

But we lost Dawson, we'll get a rookie KPD instead,
and chances are injuries will strike.

So we might scrape into the finals.

If we'd kept FDawson we wouldn't have Melbourne's first pick next year.

 

[Bandicoot]

The whole Beatson-Dalrymple set up / relationship is an interesting one. Surely they work together on a strategy leading up to the draft and build in some contingencies depending on what cards are dealt on the night. Or does Dalrymple essentially check out after our first pick, then says "over to you Kinnear?"

Having live trading as an option gives Beatson a bit more flexibilty after that point. Wouldn't be surprised if we get involved some picks trading on the night to react to how things play out and who we have our eye on. Possibly for a mid 20's pick this year, we'll see. Think we did that with the Rowbottom pick and Gould pick. Although will
be difficult to get the Bulldog's pick 23 this way, as that will be needed earlier for points for Darcy.

If we wanted 23, we would need to do the trade with the Dogs prior to the Darcy nomination. Giving them 31 and 39 for their 23 but I don't believe it's worth it. 23 would become 25 and our 31 would become 32 with 39 becoming 38 if we didn't do the deal. That's assuming there are no further academy/NGA nominations beforehand.
It has been said by many that the differential in quality between 20-40 is minimal so it makes little sense to do this and furthermore meaning our third pick would be in the 70s range.
I think we'll stay with our two picks in the 30s.

 

[rustycrate]

If we'd kept Dawson,
Brought in Ladhams
And picked up Weitering for our first and Melbourne's first the following year.
AND have no injuries to a best 20 player.

We'd have been a chance at a GF.

But we lost Dawson, we'll get a rookie KPD instead,
and chances are injuries will strike.

So we might scrape into the finals.

glass half empty

 

[rustycrate]

If we'd kept FDawson we wouldn't have Melbourne's first pick next year.

glass half full

 

[ShireSwan]

Counting down Draft prospects from #35 to #1

Cal Twomey's Phantom Form Guide: Top draft prospects' October ranking

In this bumper edition, Cal Twomey ranks a whopping 35 players in the 2021 draft pool

www.afl.com.au

gee that clip of Goater looks good. I'd change my mind on a KPD with our first in the unlikely even he was still there.

 

[ShireSwan]

Cal Twomey's Phantom Form Guide: Top draft prospects' October ranking (afl.com.au)

JVR or Butler

18 - SAM BUTLER
Midfielder/forward
184cm/76kg
10/2/03
Greater Western Victoria Rebels/Vic Country

Butler reminded recruiters of his all-round capabilities with a strong Combine showing, leading the Vic Country testing for the 20-metre sprint (2.97 seconds) as well as finishing second in the standing vertical jump (71cm) and running vertical jump (87cm) tests. The younger brother of St Kilda forward Dan, the Rebels talent had an impressive season, including a 27-disposal performance to finish his year in the NAB League. Butler is a smart midfielder/forward who impacts games with clever ball use and quick decisions.

21 - JACOB VAN ROOYEN
Forward/defender
193cm/91kg
16/4/03
Claremont/Western Australia

It was a bumpy beginning to the year for van Rooyen as he battled glandular fever while stepping up to senior level with Claremont. But he got going in the second half of the season in particular, finding his groove as a key defender before again switching forward and booting 24 goals in the final six colts games of his season. He also kicked the match-winner for Western Australia in its championships game against South Australia at Optus Stadium.

JVR on the basis of Butler's brother's mullet alone. We can't take that risk.

 

[Bandicoot]

If we'd kept Dawson,
Brought in Ladhams
And picked up Weitering for our first and Melbourne's first the following year.
AND have no injuries to a best 20 player.

We'd have been a chance at a GF.

But we lost Dawson, we'll get a rookie KPD instead,
and chances are injuries will strike.

So we might scrape into the finals.

Thanks for brightening our day.

 

[dosser]

gee that clip of Goater looks good. I'd change my mind on a KPD with our first in the unlikely even he was still there.

I just watched and he looks good. But I also just watched Horne-Francis and he looks even better, so I think we should choose him instead.

 

[Kapers]

If we'd kept Dawson,
Brought in Ladhams
And picked up Weitering for our first and Melbourne's first the following year.
AND have no injuries to a best 20 player.

We'd have been a chance at a GF.

But we lost Dawson, we'll get a rookie KPD instead,
and chances are injuries will strike.

So we might scrape into the finals.

I think we a vastly overrating the rest of the competition lol. We literally 5 games clear of 9th. They could of had an extra month of games where we lost every game and we would still probably have come 6th.

We lost one player, A very good player, but there were 21 other players when we beat Geelong, Western Bulldogs, Richmond, Lions, and slaughtered WC.

 

[rustycrate]

Sydney are notorious for not delisting players like other clubs.
I think they try their best to find "homes" for them prior to delisting.
Clarke and Ronke are still unsigned. Whether they will be offered new deals on the rookie list or whether the Swans are trying to facilitate homes for them is immaterial.
The club should be commended!

 

[Vin Rogue]

Van Rooyen can do both KPD and KPF, even one write up suggested he could pinch hit as an undersized ruck or as a tall mid sparingly. I'd suspect it'll just be one of the key posts, but Reid has been able to do a few roles (when fit), so could be that type.

Bazzo was a KPF, now seen as one of the better KPDs.

I was big on Conway, but then heard more about King next year (academy) and we got Ladhams, so less of a need now. Think the two above are going to be the more versatile, while filling needs.

You give Van Rooyen the death handshake when you liken him to a Reid type of player. But if we are unable to choose him or Bazzo then I would seriously consider Conway. Lot to like about a lad who is 205cm. No harm in having a friendly rivalry with King if that were to happen.

 

[rustycrate]

You give Van Rooyen the death handshake when you liken him to a Reid type of player. But if we are unable to choose him or Bazzo then I would seriously consider Conway. Lot to like about a lad who is 205cm. No harm in having a friendly rivalry with King if that were to happen.

Conway will not be picked. Too raw. Long education. Not us.

 

[Bloods86]

You give Van Rooyen the death handshake when you liken him to a Reid type of player. But if we are unable to choose him or Bazzo then I would seriously consider Conway. Lot to like about a lad who is 205cm. No harm in having a friendly rivalry with King if that were to happen.

I mean in versatility not injury-prone obviously. I'd imagine Conway will be gone before Bazzo, so we won't know if we can't get the latter. In any case, with the arrival in Ladhams, and King, McAndrew, Amartey around, with still hopefully 2 years of Hickey... I just don't see us getting another ruck (especially not at our 1st pick, and he'll be gone by our 2nd). Before Ladhams came on board sure.

 

[Kiama Chris]

Sydney are notorious for not delisting players like other clubs.
I think they try their best to find "homes" for them prior to delisting.
Clarke and Ronke are still unsigned. Whether they will be offered new deals on the rookie list or whether the Swans are trying to facilitate homes for them is immaterial.
The club should be commended!

Totally agree. Been that way ever since I have followed the club. Ex-players (one recent exception) usually speak well of the club.

 

[Kiama Chris]

You give Van Rooyen the death handshake when you liken him to a Reid type of player. But if we are unable to choose him or Bazzo then I would seriously consider Conway. Lot to like about a lad who is 205cm. No harm in having a friendly rivalry with King if that were to happen.

Don't forget we have McAndrew as well.

 

[ShireSwan]

I think we a vastly overrating the rest of the competition lol. We literally 5 games clear of 9th. They could of had an extra month of games where we lost every game and we would still probably have come 6th.

We lost one player, A very good player, but there were 21 other players when we beat Geelong, Western Bulldogs, Richmond, Lions, and slaughtered WC.

I'd feel a lot better if we got Goater into the team along with a KPD. Let's trade Melbourne's first and whatever else to get another pick in the teens