List Mgmt. 2021 Draft and Trade Hypotheticals

[Ticky009]

Hi everyone, for those interested some great links plus the Big Footy Draft, Trade & Free Agency twitter as per below:

 

[Membling]

I wouldn't know, but every year we hear that next year's draft is better than this year's. We heard that last year, and now "next year's draft" has arrived and it's seen as meh.

Not so much about being overall better or worse. On currwnt exposed form, next year KPPs are rated higher than this years. From what I have seen, especially from the SA contingent, this looks to be very accurate.

As of today, the last time next year's draft played regular footy was in the U15s.

For Vics that is correct. Everyone else.... not so much.

 

[ScottBo]

Only 14 shopping days until AFL Xmas.

Fejo would be promising as a late pick or in the rookie draft.

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

Is the AFL jab policy going to effect recruitment? would a club have to ask the player what his beliefs are?

 

[Bloods86]

Thoroughly disagree with the idea that getting Paddy ends our need for a KPD.

After next year we have Tom and maaaaayyybeeee Melican as our locked in KPDs. While there's question marks over Gould, BOC and definitely Paddy "handful of games in VFL defence" McCartin - it is our area of greatest need, so you maximise your chances of having a best 22 KPD in a few years.

And I'm confused. We shipped off Hewett and I was assured we had a plethora of young mids ready to take over. But now we're so short we need to ignore anything else and bring in mids?

Shuffle some picks, get us a couple in the 20s, keep one in late 30s. Grab the likes of Wilmot or Chesser, then Bazzo/Alleer/Dean (best available with lockdown potential), then Sheldrick or Dittmar (or Warner if lucky). Paddy and Anderson at the rookie draft. Done. Catered for some inside and outside mid / wing potential, a couple of KPDs, and if Wilmot, potential for small defender roles if needed.

People justify not picking a KPD because they take time to develop, and then there's talk of waiting til next year to draft one....

 

[caesar88]

And I'm confused. We shipped off Hewett and I was assured we had a plethora of young mids ready to take over. But now we're so short we need to ignore anything else and bring in mids?

People justify not picking a KPD because they take time to develop, and then there's talk of waiting til next year to draft one....

Completely agree with these points.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Not so much about being overall better or worse. On currwnt exposed form, next year KPPs are rated higher than this years. From what I have seen, especially from the SA contingent, this looks to be very accurate.


For Vics that is correct. Everyone else.... not so much.

100% plus next year we aren’t guessing with talls especially mid range ones. They will have more exposed form. That is why even though I expect us to look at a tall I won’t be shocked if we say, take the smalls. Rookie McCartin and look at the KPP next season.

 

[Bloods86]

Thoroughly disagree with the idea that getting Paddy ends our need for a KPD.

After next year we have Tom and maaaaayyybeeee Melican as our locked in KPDs. While there's question marks over Gould, BOC and definitely Paddy "handful of games in VFL defence" McCartin - it is our area of greatest need, so you maximise your chances of having a best 22 KPD in a few years.

And I'm confused. We shipped off Hewett and I was assured we had a plethora of young mids ready to take over. But now we're so short we need to ignore anything else and bring in mids?

Shuffle some picks, get us a couple in the 20s, keep one in late 30s. Grab the likes of Wilmot or Chesser, then Bazzo/Alleer/Dean (best available with lockdown potential), then Sheldrick or Dittmar (or Warner if lucky). Paddy and Anderson at the rookie draft. Done. Catered for some inside and outside mid / wing potential, a couple of KPDs, and if Wilmot, potential for small defender roles if needed.

People justify not picking a KPD because they take time to develop, and then there's talk of waiting til next year to draft one....

Alternatively, if we keep our picks as is, then the following might represent our best moves in terms of coverage and who we're rumoured to be into.

~19 - JVR
~31 - Warner or an outside like Taylor
~39 - Sheldrick/Dittmar

Or, if there's a few late KPDs we rate close to the most talked about ones:

~19 - Wilmot/Chesser (unless there's a slider)
~31 - best avail inside mid (Knevitt or Sheldrick if we really rate him)
~39 - best avail KPD (Dean might still be around)

 

[Kiama Chris]

He is going to be a project player like it or not. When he first joined it was when Buddy had just re-injured himself and there were question marks over the development of McLean and Amartey long term. It was assumed he would long term insurance up forward.

He played two games in the VFL in defence, neither were assigned in a shut down role and played forward in matches after that as well. Far from a clean plan as you can get. He has a lot to learn still about playing in defence and will be given that time if that is what role the club gets him to play. Plus if he does play in defence he has to actually learn how to play Full Back as he has never played the position.

I feel too many people are placing expectations on Paddy to be something that he might not be (a shut down Full Back) and even if he is, it might take a season to become one. People have to lower their expectations early on as this isn’t going to be the quick fix some think it is.

Hear what you're saying but it might be wise to recall how quickly Tom learnt the basics of being a KPD. He still has a lot to learn but his growth was exponential.
Reckon Paddy would play back pocket to get back amongst it. He and Tom are real footyheads. Nothing is off the agenda.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Alternatively, if we keep our picks as is, then the following might represent our best moves in terms of coverage and who we're rumoured to be into.

~19 - JVR
~31 - Warner or an outside like Taylor
~39 - Sheldrick/Dittmar

Or, if there's a late KPD we rate close to the most talked about ones:

~19 - Wilmot/Chesser (unless there's a slider)
~31 - best avail inside mid (Knevitt or Sheldrick if we really rate him)
~39 - best avail KPD (Dean might still be around)

Option 3:

We have enough KPD for next season as it is.

We have two firsts next year to trade one in or get 1-2 first round defenders next season.

Don’t necessarily need one this year although we may want one ideally. Nothing wrong with filling the smaller needs

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Is the AFL jab policy going to effect recruitment? would a club have to ask the player what his beliefs are?

You would hope it wouldn’t even be relevant but you’d assume it’s in the contract and if not it should

 

[Kiama Chris]

You would hope it wouldn’t even be relevant but you’d assume it’s in the contract and if not it should

Agree it should be in the contract. Removes any grey area. Along with social media and public behaviour. Bit more grey there though.

 

[Bloods86]

Option 3:

We have enough KPD for next season as it is.

We have two firsts next year to trade one in or get 1-2 first round defenders next season.

Don’t necessarily need one this year although we may want one ideally. Nothing wrong with filling the smaller needs

Short term thinking. I'm only concerned with maximising our chances at a sustained finals/flag run. Not whether McCartin, Rampe and ??? are good enough for next year.

KPD is our clearest need. People will argue that there's no point drafting one in because they'll take too long, won't be ready in time for a flag run. Then I read we should wait and draft one later. So you can see why my brain implodes. Get one in now, I'll leave it up to the club to work out where our best option is in the draft, get a year of development in before Rampe retires, and the very real risk of none of Paddy, Melican, Gould, BOC locking down a spot is realised.

 

[Membling]

Thoroughly disagree with the idea that getting Paddy ends our need for a KPD.

After next year we have Tom and maaaaayyybeeee Melican as our locked in KPDs. While there's question marks over Gould, BOC and definitely Paddy "handful of games in VFL defence" McCartin - it is our area of greatest need, so you maximise your chances of having a best 22 KPD in a few years.

And I'm confused. We shipped off Hewett and I was assured we had a plethora of young mids ready to take over. But now we're so short we need to ignore anything else and bring in mids?

Shuffle some picks, get us a couple in the 20s, keep one in late 30s. Grab the likes of Wilmot or Chesser, then Bazzo/Alleer/Dean (best available with lockdown potential), then Sheldrick or Dittmar (or Warner if lucky). Paddy and Anderson at the rookie draft. Done. Catered for some inside and outside mid / wing potential, a couple of KPDs, and if Wilmot, potential for small defender roles if needed.

People justify not picking a KPD because they take time to develop, and then there's talk of waiting til next year to draft one....

Agree that adding Paddy does not means KPDs are set.

I highly doubt that a years development will be a huge difference between the quality that is available next year at KPD positions as opposed to this year.

If JVR is there, then take him. However, advocating beat available regardless of position.

As an aside, looking at next year OOC players that could interest:

Gardiner
Marchbank
Moore
Pearce
Logue
Petty
Barrass
Keath

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Short term thinking. I'm only concerned with maximising our chances at a sustained finals/flag run. Not whether McCartin, Rampe and ??? are good enough for next year.

KPD is our clearest need. People will argue that there's no point drafting one in because they'll take too long, won't be ready in time for a flag run. Then I read we should wait and draft one later. So you can see why my brain implodes. Get one in now, I'll leave it up to the club to work out where our best option is in the draft, get a year of development in before Rampe retires, and the very real risk of none of Paddy, Melican, Gould, BOC locking down a spot is realised.

You are relatively drafting blind this year though there is no exposed form at all. In an ideal world I’d be with you but if JVR isn’t available at our first and it’s likely he isn’t then I can see us filling other needs. Small defender might be one we need one of those too, inside mid to replace Kennedy eventually, etc

 

[Bloods86]

As an aside, looking at next year OOC players that could interest:

Gardiner
Marchbank
Moore
Pearce
Logue
Petty
Barrass
Keath

Have nothing against targeting someone next year. Just advocating to cover all potential outcomes, maximising our chances.

Would rather we draft someone in this year regardless. Then we have a year to evaluate said draftee, Paddy, BOC, Gould (latter on 1 year deals) as well as Melican, to see if we have at minimum 2 KPDs at senior level, for the medium to long term, ideally 2 + 1 backup. That will then determine how hard we chase someone, or if we need to.

Unlikely, but if we end up with too many good KPDs, we have some pretty good trade value.

Again, I'm not advocating drafting 3 KPDs and ignoring mids. I've settled on drafting 1 and grabbing 2 smalls. Covers a variety of bases.

 

[caesar88]

You are relatively drafting blind this year though there is no exposed form at all. In an ideal world I’d be with you but if JVR isn’t available at our first and it’s likely he isn’t then I can see us filling other needs. Small defender might be one we need one of those too, inside mid to replace Kennedy eventually, etc

Small defender and inside mids are not needs of ours at all.

 

[Bloods86]

You are relatively drafting blind this year though there is no exposed form at all. In an ideal world I’d be with you but if JVR isn’t available at our first and it’s likely he isn’t then I can see us filling other needs. Small defender might be one we need one of those too, inside mid to replace Kennedy eventually, etc

I don't see how drafting blind factors in. For example, you want Sinn, despite him only playing a handful of games over the last 2 years. But then the likes of Bazzo, Alleer, Dean and some other late KPD options have played quite a bit.

I'm hardly suggesting anything controversial. Take 2 'smalls'/mids sure, the scenarios I've suggested fill a variety of lesser needs as well (outside/wing, inside mid, small def). Just maximise our chances of filling our greatest need long term by grabbing a KPD with one of our picks.

 

[the hypnotoad]

Thoroughly disagree with the idea that getting Paddy ends our need for a KPD.

After next year we have Tom and maaaaayyybeeee Melican as our locked in KPDs. While there's question marks over Gould, BOC and definitely Paddy "handful of games in VFL defence" McCartin - it is our area of greatest need, so you maximise your chances of having a best 22 KPD in a few years.

And I'm confused. We shipped off Hewett and I was assured we had a plethora of young mids ready to take over. But now we're so short we need to ignore anything else and bring in mids?

Shuffle some picks, get us a couple in the 20s, keep one in late 30s. Grab the likes of Wilmot or Chesser, then Bazzo/Alleer/Dean (best available with lockdown potential), then Sheldrick or Dittmar (or Warner if lucky). Paddy and Anderson at the rookie draft. Done. Catered for some inside and outside mid / wing potential, a couple of KPDs, and if Wilmot, potential for small defender roles if needed.

People justify not picking a KPD because they take time to develop, and then there's talk of waiting til next year to draft one....

i'm not at all suggesting we get paddy mccartin, stick him in defence and that's that ...
it's more that we clearly couldn't afford to be wading into the market for a 'big-name' (big-money) defender (if there were any around) in the recent trade period, and we certainly can't bank on getting a ready-to-go superstar in the draft, so taking a low(ish)-cost chance on mccartin seems worth a shot until we sort out our salary issues, and it may end up a very good longer-term solution

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Small defender and inside mids are not needs of ours at all.

Completely disagree. We need a bloke to play on the nippy half forwards or are you planning on letting them kick 4+ every game as usual.

Need someone to eventually replace JPK long term. Warner is one but we need depth.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

I don't see how drafting blind factors in. For example, you want Sinn, despite him only playing a handful of games over the last 2 years. But then the likes of Bazzo, Alleer, Dean and some other late KPD options have played quite a bit.

I'm hardly suggesting anything controversial. Take 2 'smalls'/mids sure, the scenarios I've suggested fill a variety of lesser needs as well (outside/wing, inside mid, small def). Just maximise our chances of filling our greatest need long term by grabbing a KPD with one of our picks.

If JVR isn’t there at 18, I’d actually rather take the smalls. There will be plenty of talls next year there’s a stack from SA or WA next year and these will have played in the Champs and what not. I can see the merit in not going tall for the sake of it.

 

[caesar88]

Completely disagree. We need a bloke to play on the nippy half forwards or are you planning on letting them kick 4+ every game as usual.

Need someone to eventually replace JPK long term. Warner is one but we need depth.

We have Cunningham, Fox and COR as small/medium defenders, none of who are that old. We have Mills, Rowbottom and Warner as inside mids all under 25.

 

[Bloods86]

i'm not at all suggesting we get paddy mccartin, stick him in defence and that's that ...
it's more that we clearly couldn't afford to be wading into the market for a 'big-name' (big-money) defender (if there were any around) in the recent trade period, and we certainly can't bank on getting a ready-to-go superstar in the draft, so taking a low(ish)-cost chance on mccartin seems worth a shot until we sort out our salary issues, and it may end up a very good longer-term solution

Fine with taking a punt on Paddy, just don't think it should factor into draft decisions for the long term. And I'm still more comfortable with the likelihood that our fringe 'smalls' like Campbell, Stephens, COR, plus undoubtedly the couple we will (and should) draft, will backup those areas, than our current crop of fringe/untried KPDs (incl Paddy) will.

 

[Bloods86]

If JVR isn’t there at 18, I’d actually rather take the smalls. There will be plenty of talls next year there’s a stack from SA or WA next year and these will have played in the Champs and what not. I can see the merit in not going tall for the sake of it.

I'm not suggesting we take a KPD other than JVR at 18/19. Although if the club think Bazzo for example is as likely a gun KPD as any, I wouldn't complain (since I'd mostly want JVR for his KPD potential anyway). Maybe I said that a few weeks ago, but after a bit more research, there's a few others I like the look of around that mark (Wilmot, Chesser etc). The potential selections I've posted reflect that, but still advocate for a KPD later.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

We have Cunningham, Fox and COR as small/medium defenders, none of who are that old. We have Mills, Rowbottom and Warner as inside mids all under 25.

If we are relying on those as small defenders that's a red flag. It is a need albeit it's not one I'd sell the farm for. However if we take one this year I won't be complaining.

 

[Bandicoot]

We'd obviously be taking a risk that we or the Dees finish high up the ladder, and not advocating a straight swap either. Approaching a flag window, the extra year of development could be important, if there's someone we really rate available at 23.

Problem is that if that player is still there at 23 it would be too late to make a call on it. The pick would have already been used for Darcy.