List Mgmt. 2021 Draft and Trade Hypotheticals

[Ticky009]

Hi everyone, for those interested some great links plus the Big Footy Draft, Trade & Free Agency twitter as per below:

 

[robbieando]

With P Mccartin in I agree.

View attachment 1277239

I would say looking at our list like this KPD is no longer a need if we sign Paddy. Tom and Melican (with Rampe and Fox supporting) will be our first two options to play FB and CHB as such. Paddy and O'Connor would be the backup options.

The forward line looks fine on paper. So I think 2 midfielders and maybe a medium defender would be the three picks I would make to round off the list

 

[rustycrate]

I would say looking at our list like this KPD is no longer a need if we sign Paddy. Tom and Melican (with Rampe and Fox supporting) will be our first two options to play FB and CHB as such. Paddy and O'Connor would be the backup options.

The forward line looks fine on paper. So I think 2 midfielders and maybe a medium defender would be the three picks I would make to round off the list

I reckon two good mids and and rookie KPD if Mc is brought onboard. That's is our form. We never pay up for KPDs.

 

[BloodySwan]

Herald Sun reporting McCartin will be picked up as a rookie. Still every chance we don't take him

 

[Kiama Chris]

I doubt a 1st Round Pick would be on the table. I think our Pick 70 which once bids are matched would move into the early 60's would be what we are trying to move.

Something like this trade would be what I could see happening:
View attachment 1277149
Bulldogs gain 30 points and a pick that will move in by around 60 points on draft night. We gain an early second round pick and move back our third pick.

If this doesn't happen, I could see 23 for 31 and 39 straight up taking place.

Exactly what I later thought would best suit both teams.

 

[caesar88]

I would be waiting until next draft if JVR isnt at our pick.

KPP stocks in this draft are relatively weak

Not saying I agree or disagree, but how often are the forecasts about the following year's draft actually true? So often you hear "next year's draft is this or that", but so much changes in the span of a year that it's kinda hard to tell what the next year's draft will really look like. Certainly not enough that I'd be allowing next year's draft to determine what we do this year.

 

[kickthething]

Not saying I agree or disagree, but how often are the forecasts about the following year's draft actually true? So often you hear "next year's draft is this or that", but so much changes in the span of a year that it's kinda hard to tell what the next year's draft will really look like. Certainly not enough that I'd be allowing next year's draft to determine what we do this year.

Problem is this year's crop are a pretty boring group. This is a hard draft to get excited about, pretty vanilla imo.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

I would be waiting until next draft if JVR isnt at our pick.

KPP stocks in this draft are relatively weak

More than happy with that actually can never have too many mids

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Problem is this year's crop are a pretty boring group. This is a hard draft to get excited about, pretty vanilla imo.

The top few will be elite though to be fair

 

[kickthething]

The top few will be elite though to be fair

Yep, agree... but they are not for us of course. It runs pretty shallow pretty early I reckon. I think there a lot of good ordinary footballers in the majority of this year's draft.

 

[caesar88]

Problem is this year's crop are a pretty boring group. This is a hard draft to get excited about, pretty vanilla imo.

I wouldn't know, but every year we hear that next year's draft is better than this year's. We heard that last year, and now "next year's draft" has arrived and it's seen as meh.

 

[rustycrate]

I wouldn't know, but every year we hear that next year's draft is better than this year's. We heard that last year, and now "next year's draft" has arrived and it's seen as meh.

Kinnears's heaven

 

[Dubai Quacker]

I wouldn't know, but every year we hear that next year's draft is better than this year's. We heard that last year, and now "next year's draft" has arrived and it's seen as meh.

“Premature certainty is the enemy of the truth”. (quote courtesy of Nipsey Hussle).

 

[kickthething]

I wouldn't know, but every year we hear that next year's draft is better than this year's. We heard that last year, and now "next year's draft" has arrived and it's seen as meh.

Yeah, I have no idea about next years and projecting that is dangerous. You can only look at the draft in front of you.

 

[hairy biker]

I think one thing the recruiters can predict with a reasonable degree of confidence is the relative mix of a forthcoming draft.

Going into this year it was generally seen as a midfielders draft and really only Darcy seems to have pushed himself into top end calculations.
Mids may have risen and fallen, but they will still make up the majority of the first round.
There is also an argument that someone like Gibcus may not have gone top 10 last year, but will this year because of the paucity of high quality talls.

The talk is that next year there are likely to be more talls selected early and also the quality extends further than this year.

 

[RUNVS]

I think one thing the recruiters can predict with a reasonable degree of confidence is the relative mix of a forthcoming draft.

Going into this year it was generally seen as a midfielders draft and really only Darcy seems to have pushed himself into top end calculations.
Mids may have risen and fallen, but they will still make up the majority of the first round.
There is also an argument that someone like Gibcus may not have gone top 10 last year, but will this year because of the paucity of high quality talls.

The talk is that next year there are likely to be more talls selected early and also the quality extends further than this year.

Yes when there is very few players in one position in any given draft then the players who do play that position will find their draft stocks rising even if their talent doesn't technically deserve that.

If you are a Honda Civic surrounded by Nissan Micra's you will stand out even if you are not that impressive.

 

[the hypnotoad]

I see it as a worthwhile throw-at-the-stumps.

Chance of success is probably reasonably low, but if the throw hits the pegs from 50m - it'd be like running out Virat Kohli. For a duck. In both innings.

that's one mighty throw

 

[the hypnotoad]

Um... not sure what you are trying to say by putting that asterisk there, or is the censorship bot working overtime?

haha, yeah, i noticed that ... i spose the idea of one player trying to sh*t another player down is pretty unpleasant

 

[Dubai Quacker]

Yes when there is very few players in one position in any given draft then the players who do play that position will find their draft stocks rising even if their talent doesn't technically deserve that.

If you are a Honda Civic surrounded by Nissan Micra's you will stand out even if you are not that impressive.

Our 2019 trade period brought in a bunch of Holden Camiras.

 

[the hypnotoad]

I would say looking at our list like this KPD is no longer a need if we sign Paddy. Tom and Melican (with Rampe and Fox supporting) will be our first two options to play FB and CHB as such. Paddy and O'Connor would be the backup options.

The forward line looks fine on paper. So I think 2 midfielders and maybe a medium defender would be the three picks I would make to round off the list

i'd strongly think if we're going to sign paddy mccartin, we're looking at him being ready to play first-up next season ... i think the club had enough of a look at him in the vfl, because they'd have been right on his case the whole time he's been linked to sydney ...
i've got no doubt there's been communication and a specific plan ... there's question marks, for sure, but mostly over health ... this is a no1 draft pick talent, 25 years old, not some project ...
we have a glaring need for a big physical presence with genuine talent in defence ... i'm sure there's a plan been in place for a while

 

[caesar88]

i'd strongly think if we're going to sign paddy mccartin, we're looking at him being ready to play first-up next season ... i think the club had enough of a look at him in the vfl, because they'd have been right on his case the whole time he's been linked to sydney ...
i've got no doubt there's been communication and a specific plan ... there's question marks, for sure, but mostly over health ... this is a no1 draft pick talent, 25 years old, not some project ...
we have a glaring need for a big physical presence with genuine talent in defence ... i'm sure there's a plan been in place for a while

I do agree that we clearly saw Paddy as an option in defence the minute we brought him up here to join our VFL side. The plan was to look at him in the VFL, and then sign him if he showed enough. We would've seen all we needed to see, now it's just a matter of how much we liked what we saw. Enough to give him a spot on our AFL list or not.

However I still think the much bigger plan, as has been dating back before Paddy and is still in play now, is the Tom McCartin & Melican partnership. This duo showed huge promise at the tail end of 2020 when Rampe was out, and was talked up this pre-season as a key part of our defence. The coaches won't give up on that just because Melican spent most of the year injured then had two rusty games on his return at the end of the season. Horse dropping Fox, a reliable player who had seemingly worked his way to a regular spot in the side, just to get Melican back in before the finals shows the regard the coaches still have for him.

If he can get an injury-free run at it, I think he will follow in the footsteps of formerly-maligned players like Cunningham and #RuckJesus to play some really good footy and solidify their place in the team. He and Tom have the potential to really complement each other.

 

[robbieando]

i'd strongly think if we're going to sign paddy mccartin, we're looking at him being ready to play first-up next season ... i think the club had enough of a look at him in the vfl, because they'd have been right on his case the whole time he's been linked to sydney ...
i've got no doubt there's been communication and a specific plan ... there's question marks, for sure, but mostly over health ... this is a no1 draft pick talent, 25 years old, not some project ...
we have a glaring need for a big physical presence with genuine talent in defence ... i'm sure there's a plan been in place for a while

He is going to be a project player like it or not. When he first joined it was when Buddy had just re-injured himself and there were question marks over the development of McLean and Amartey long term. It was assumed he would long term insurance up forward.

He played two games in the VFL in defence, neither were assigned in a shut down role and played forward in matches after that as well. Far from a clean plan as you can get. He has a lot to learn still about playing in defence and will be given that time if that is what role the club gets him to play. Plus if he does play in defence he has to actually learn how to play Full Back as he has never played the position.

I feel too many people are placing expectations on Paddy to be something that he might not be (a shut down Full Back) and even if he is, it might take a season to become one. People have to lower their expectations early on as this isn’t going to be the quick fix some think it is.

 

[anotherletdown]

I doubt a 1st Round Pick would be on the table. I think our Pick 70 which once bids are matched would move into the early 60's would be what we are trying to move.

Something like this trade would be what I could see happening:
View attachment 1277149
Bulldogs gain 30 points and a pick that will move in by around 60 points on draft night. We gain an early second round pick and move back our third pick.

If this doesn't happen, I could see 23 for 31 and 39 straight up taking place.

I think they'll be looking for 39 and our future 2nd. 39 strengthens their block of picks and our 2nd gives them ammunition to get back into this years draft after the bid

 

[anotherletdown]

The Pies need theirs for Daicos..yes?

Yes... but if Daicos is bid first then they might be able to trade back into 23

 

[Crust]

Not saying I agree or disagree, but how often are the forecasts about the following year's draft actually true? So often you hear "next year's draft is this or that", but so much changes in the span of a year that it's kinda hard to tell what the next year's draft will really look like. Certainly not enough that I'd be allowing next year's draft to determine what we do this year.

As of today, the last time next year's draft played regular footy was in the U15s.

 

[the hypnotoad]

He is going to be a project player like it or not. When he first joined it was when Buddy had just re-injured himself and there were question marks over the development of McLean and Amartey long term. It was assumed he would long term insurance up forward.

He played two games in the VFL in defence, neither were assigned in a shut down role and played forward in matches after that as well. Far from a clean plan as you can get. He has a lot to learn still about playing in defence and will be given that time if that is what role the club gets him to play. Plus if he does play in defence he has to actually learn how to play Full Back as he has never played the position.

I feel too many people are placing expectations on Paddy to be something that he might not be (a shut down Full Back) and even if he is, it might take a season to become one. People have to lower their expectations early on as this isn’t going to be the quick fix some think it is.

i think our definitions of 'project' might be the issue on mccartin ... when i hear that term used i think of a speculative plan that's 3-4 years at least from getting any idea if it might work
this bloke is a 25yo with no1 draft pick talent ... and i'm sure the idea of playing a key defence position wouldn't be like learning a new language, he'd have played on key defenders a fair bit in his earlier days ...
the real question is his health and, yes, that's a gamble