List Mgmt. 2021 Draft and Trade Hypotheticals

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If we are relying on those as small defenders that's a red flag. It is a need albeit it's not one I'd sell the farm for. However if we take one this year I won't be complaining.

If you think you're gonna get much better than those three as small defenders then you're only kidding yourself. They slot into defence and do a good job shutting the opposition's small forwards down with minimal fuss. (With the exception of Fox when he plays on Jack Higgins it seems, but even Smooch had an opponent who was his kryptonite.)
 
If we are relying on those as small defenders that's a red flag. It is a need albeit it's not one I'd sell the farm for. However if we take one this year I won't be complaining.
Huh? Cunningham is A grade, Fox and COR are at the very least, quite solid on smaller opponents. I think we should plan for the future in this role sure (e.g. Wilmot can do both outside work and lockdown defence), but I fail to see how this is an area of concern, where we have solid options, and KPD isn't a dumpster fire in comparison.
 
The way Twomey spoke is that the Bulldogs have put the pick on the table as it will be "eaten up in the bid for Sam Darcy".
He refers to them seeking picks in the 30s and "maybe even a future pick".

Bulldogs currently have picks 23 43 44 45 52.(2148 points)
Pick 2 is 2517, pick 3 2234.
Pick 23 is 815 pts, Picks 31 (606) & pick 39 (446) total 1052. Difference of 237 points (equals pick 53 for reference).

Swapping 23 for 31 & 39 would leave WBD with 2385 pts, enough for pick 3, but still shy of pick 2.

A first rounder from 2022 is of no value unless they can on trade it for picks/points in 2021.

About 1 minute to 1:30 in;

Geelong (picks 22 30 32 34 & 50) and Collingwood (picks 36 38 40 46 48 55 58) are clearly in a better position to provide points for WBD, should they wish to do so.
Collingwood would not be giving the Dogs extra points as they need them just as much as the dogs do.
 

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If you think you're gonna get much better than those three as small defenders then you're only kidding yourself. They slot into defence and do a good job shutting the opposition's small forwards down with minimal fuss. (With the exception of Fox when he plays on Jack Higgins it seems, but even Smooch had an opponent who was his kryptonite.)

Could easily be one available at our first or second. I'm honestly not fussed if we do or don't get a defender. Can easily get one next season.
 
We currently have 37 players that we know that are signed for next year (both senior and rookie lists) leaving 7 list spots currently available. Bell is all but announced so that makes 38 players and 6 list spots. Ryan Clarke is the great unknown. No one knows what is up with him. If signed for 2022 that makes 5 list spots available and the following picks going into the draft:

Pick 16
Pick 31
Pick 39
Rookie Draft - Cat A (Paddy McCartin)
Rookie Draft - Cat B (Anderson)

You would be assuming we rookie draft Paddy McCartin and Angus Anderson. So if Clarke is signed that leaves us with just the 3 National Draft picks remaining, if not we get one more Cat A rookie pick to use on a young kid.
Have we upgraded anyone from the rookie list to the senior list this year?
 
An interesting article in the HS yesterday showed that having a pick in the top 10 is not the be all and end all.
Over the past 10 drafts, only around 40% of those chosen in the top 10 would still rank there after the benefit of hindsight.
 
Have we upgraded anyone from the rookie list to the senior list this year?

The working assumption always is that by signing 2-year contracts McLean, Wicks and Sheather have all been upgraded to the senior list. This would mean we are running with a 37 man senior list (or a 38 man senior list if Clarke is signed for 2022) and opens up enough rookie list spots to actually be able to select Paddy and Anderson in the rookie draft.
 
The working assumption always is that by signing 2-year contracts McLean, Wicks and Sheather have all been upgraded to the senior list. This would mean we are running with a 37 man senior list (or a 38 man senior list if Clarke is signed for 2022) and opens up enough rookie list spots to actually be able to select Paddy and Anderson in the rookie draft.
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I'm in the draft best available this year camp (and happy if it's a line ball decision to go tall).

I understand the argument that if we draft a player this year they will obviously have one year's development over someone we take next year, but I wonder about the quality of the talls this year.

I've mentioned previously that Gibcus could conceivably go with the 2nd or 3rd live pick (to GWS/GC) yet where would he have featured in the top 10/20 last year?

Beatson mentioned recently one question he asks his recruiters with regard to potential KPPs is who did they play on.
He seemed to have far less concern with a midfielder's opponents, perhaps because they are easier to judge or simply that they don't necessarily go head to head.
Bazzo & JVR played against SA, who are lacking talls and then matched up on each other (in part) at Colts level.
Small sample size.

Last year was seen as a talls draft, this year a mids draft and Twomey has mentioned in passing that there is likely to be more high end talls and greater talls depth next year.

If we take a KPD this year I believe he needs to be rated best (or very close to) at that pick, rather than take him simply because we feel we need to add to our KPD stocks.

FWIW one guy who hasn't been mentioned much on here is Jack Williams (17yo at present DOB 1/12/03) 195cm, 93kg, East Freo/WA primarily KPF, but looks to me if he has the traits that would translate to a key defensive position.
Obviously he would still need to fulfill the best available criteria but I wonder if he might with a pick in our 30s?

Brief overview;
 
Just want to remind everyone that this years draft is very shallow and that next years is even better.

Would not say better but “more exposed”. This year there will be guessing with the lack of gametime these players have had.
 
I'm in the draft best available this year camp (and happy if it's a line ball decision to go tall).

I understand the argument that if we draft a player this year they will obviously have one year's development over someone we take next year, but I wonder about the quality of the talls this year.

I've mentioned previously that Gibcus could conceivably go with the 2nd or 3rd live pick (to GWS/GC) yet where would he have featured in the top 10/20 last year?

Beatson mentioned recently one question he asks his recruiters with regard to potential KPPs is who did they play on.
He seemed to have far less concern with a midfielder's opponents, perhaps because they are easier to judge or simply that they don't necessarily go head to head.
Bazzo & JVR played against SA, who are lacking talls and then matched up on each other at Colts level.
Small sample size.

Last year was seen as a talls draft, this year a mids draft and Twomey has mentioned in passing that there is likely to be more high end talls and greater talls depth next year.

If we take a KPD this year I believe he needs to be rated best (or very close to) at that pick, rather than take him simply because we feel we need to add to our KPD stocks.

FWIW one guy who hasn't been mentioned much on here is Jack Williams (17yo at present DOB 1/12/03) 195cm, 93kg, East Freo/WA primarily KPF, but looks to me if he has the traits that would translate to a key defensive position.
Obviously he would still need to fulfill the best available criteria but I wonder if he might with a pick in our 30s?

Brief overview;
I guess I just don't see how we could be surer about next years draft crop at this point in time, than we could about players who are a year older and in most cases have played at various levels this year, including some of the later touted tall defenders having played at senior state level. I get that maybe there'll be a better KPD available for us next year, that's a risk, but given people are right to an extent that these types take time, it makes no sense to just put it off because maybe next year will be better.

If there's someone decent available around a pick this year, get them. If there's someone else next year and we haven't seen evidence of having 3 or 4 good to solid KPDs on our list already, get another one. We can make room by delisting any or all of Melican, Paddy, BOC and Gould in the next 1-2 years if they don't turn out. Rampe also retires.
 
I'm in the draft best available this year camp (and happy if it's a line ball decision to go tall).

I understand the argument that if we draft a player this year they will obviously have one year's development over someone we take next year, but I wonder about the quality of the talls this year.

I've mentioned previously that Gibcus could conceivably go with the 2nd or 3rd live pick (to GWS/GC) yet where would he have featured in the top 10/20 last year?

Beatson mentioned recently one question he asks his recruiters with regard to potential KPPs is who did they play on.
He seemed to have far less concern with a midfielder's opponents, perhaps because they are easier to judge or simply that they don't necessarily go head to head.
Bazzo & JVR played against SA, who are lacking talls and then matched up on each other (in part) at Colts level.
Small sample size.

Last year was seen as a talls draft, this year a mids draft and Twomey has mentioned in passing that there is likely to be more high end talls and greater talls depth next year.

If we take a KPD this year I believe he needs to be rated best (or very close to) at that pick, rather than take him simply because we feel we need to add to our KPD stocks.

FWIW one guy who hasn't been mentioned much on here is Jack Williams (17yo at present DOB 1/12/03) 195cm, 93kg, East Freo/WA primarily KPF, but looks to me if he has the traits that would translate to a key defensive position.
Obviously he would still need to fulfill the best available criteria but I wonder if he might with a pick in our 30s?

Brief overview;
draft on ability, trade in on need. I know we're light on defence but agree, we should be getting the best player available rather than taking someone we don't think would be as good.
 

Having Pick 70 assigned to us is what throws me at the minute, as we can't hold that pick and have a 38 man senior list. Does that mean Clarke isn't signed for 2022 or is one of Wicks, McLean and Sheather still on the rookie list? If Sheather is still on the rookie list that means there are no open Cat B spots for Anderson who we have nominated as an academy bid, so does that mean we think he'll go in the National Draft?

So many knock-on questions.
 
draft on ability, trade in on need. I know we're light on defence but agree, we should be getting the best player available rather than taking someone we don't think would be as good.
This would be a fair strategy if it were realistic. In recent history, since Richards, we've drafted (either national or rookie) all of our best 22 KPDs. Even Teddy's contemporaries were drafted. You can argue that some of these are still question marks (Melican) and we've had some who didn't turn out, but the fact is there's no evidence we'll just snap up a best 22 KPD in a trade. In fact the only notable tall defender trade was where we lost a now All Australian, whose lockdown competency might still be good enough to warrant a spot in our team for years to come.
 
Answering my own question but I checked and he is a medium defender which is the last thing we need right now.

I’d hope we’d be looking at 31/39. This is why I’m keen for the dogs pick 23. Could get him potentially at 23 and best available at 16 (18)
 
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