Prediction 2021 Draft Predictions

[Lore]

For those who aren’t quite in a position to do a full phantom draft, but who would still like to have a go at predicting the draft, please use this thread to post your predictions

The current draft order is available in the pinned thread, here:

Resource - 2021 AFL Draft Order

Every trade as it happens!

www.bigfooty.com

In accordance with board rules, phantom drafts which do not fulfil the requirements of a full first round using the current draft order (at time of posting), and preferably with a bit of explanation and willingness to explain your decisions, may also be merged into this thread.

Following the Trade Period, the current order for the first round of the draft is:

1. North Melbourne
2. GWS Giants
3. Gold Coast Suns
4. Adelaide
5. Hawthorn
6. Fremantle
7. Richmond
8. Fremantle
9. St Kilda
10. West Coast Eagles
11. Essendon
12. Port Adelaide
13. GWS Giants
14. Brisbane Lions
15. Richmond
16. Sydney Swans
17. Melbourne
18. Brisbane Lions

 

[briztoon]

I sure hope not!

We need picks this year, not pushing them out until next year.

Rumoured to be after a couple of SA lads from GC next year, if we 2 x 2022/1 picks, then they would both be requested for these 2 kids.

I'd prefer to see us trade:

4, 2022/1, 2022/2 -> GWS for 2, 13, 2022/1 so we can secure Callaghan and Goater, then use GWS 2022/1 for Luko.

Soooo…

Pick 4 + F Pick 6 + F Pick 24.
For
Pick 2 + Pick 13 + F Pick 14.

That looks reasonably fair, NOT.

 

[Thetrader15]

Soooo…

Pick 4 + F Pick 6 + F Pick 24.
For
Pick 2 + Pick 13 + F Pick 14.

That looks reasonably fair, NOT.

yep, fair call.

I'll retract that suggestion!

 

[eDPS]

A helpful tool for any potential phantom drafters trying to sort out late picks, this is a list of players at each club under 22 that are over 190cm. Might be a couple of players here or there that aren’t right since this was a rush job somewhat

Suns
10

Adelaide
9

Collingwood
9

Essendon
8

GWS
7

Sydney
7

Brisbane
6

Carlton
6

Richmond
6

Hawthorn
5

Saints
5

Dogs
4

Eagles
4

Melbourne
4

North
4

Geelong
4

Port
3

Fremantle
2

 

[pK75]

A helpful tool for any potential phantom drafters trying to sort out late picks, this is a list of players at each club under 22 that are over 190cm. Might be a couple of players here or there that aren’t right since this was a rush job somewhat

Suns
10

Adelaide
9

Collingwood
9

Essendon
8

GWS
7

Sydney
7

Brisbane
6

Carlton
6

Richmond
6

Hawthorn
5

Saints
5

Dogs
4

Eagles
4

Melbourne
4

North
4

Geelong
4

Port
3

Fremantle
2

Interesting numbers, not sure why you chose 190cm as the arbitrary cut off though, plenty of mids are in the 190-192cm bracket these days, if you are looking for KPP depth, then 193+cm is probably a better measure and given talls take longer to develop I’d argue you should increase the age to 24. No idea what these parameters do for the other clubs, however Freo jump up from 2 to 6, with the extra 4 players being both rucks (Darcy and Meek) and two Backs (Cox and Logue) who are all 23. With the initial 2 being a forward (Treacy) and another back (Chapman).

With 3 KPB, 2 Rucks, and a KPF all under 24, the only thing we need is another Forward and a Forward/Ruck to provide depth/succession for Tabs and Lobb.
We will get Benning as the F/R via a bid match or through the rookie draft. So really only need a KPF from the open draft.

 

[Harry O]

The Suns new VFL coach might be a strong advocate for them taking Finn Callaghan with pick 3

 

[eth-dog]

The Suns new VFL coach might be a strong advocate for them taking Finn Callaghan with pick 3

I mean. If he's there.

 

[GWS Goose]

I mean. If he's there.

If he is there it is a no brainer I would have thought

 

[eth-dog]

If he is there it is a no brainer I would have thought

Pretty much. It's like saying that if he lasted to 13 Essendon would take him

 

[Harry O]

Pretty much. It's like saying that if he lasted to 13 Essendon would take him

Pretty obvious the GWS pick is up for auction- just a matter of whether the Suns are a bidder
Or are they happy to take a tall like Gibcus

 

[Jen2310]

I mean. If he's there.

Isn't the general feeling is thay GWS won't pick a midfielder? They could do a deal with suns, they both get what they want (Suns could throw in a 2022 sweetener) Whether GWS go for Gibcus or even Andrew if they don't think he'll last til their next pick.

 

[Giant Strides]

Isn't the general feeling is thay GWS won't pick a midfielder? They could do a deal with suns, they both get what they want (Suns could throw in a 2022 sweetener) Whether GWS go for Gibcus or even Andrew if they don't think he'll last til their next pick.

I don't think you can guarantee they won't take a mid (although the right type of mid, not a slowish inside mid). I'm sure they will be trying to work out how to take Callaghan and come back in using #13 as the basis to pick up Andrew or perhaps Gibcus lower down the order where they'd naturally sit. They might have a second ''favourite'' that they're prepared to take instead of Callaghan too, if it works in their favour (Josh Rachele has been mentioned, not a mid but not a tall).

GWS will have 2 live picks plus match Fahey - we've pretty much said just the 3 picks. Brander coming in as DFA will either replace Finlayson or be used as a KPD. If the latter, Gibcus might not be a target at all.

A trade with Suns might be OK - Suns get Callaghan, GWS get a future second round pick, still no risk to picking up Mac Andrew. Could even do further picks with a team such as Hawks wanting to guarantee their mid of choice.

It's a massive poker game at the moment, everyone looking around the table, sizing the other players up.

 

[WeedsMullet84]

I think once Callaghan is off the board the motivation to move up drops away for Hawthorn and Freo. They're not going to miss out on that next tier of midfield talent at their picks (Hobbs/Ward/Rachelle), which is a real risk for us at pick 7 (9).

Sure, but isn't Ward a rusted on Hawks fan & his grandfather played for them or something? He's exactly what Crows need (aside from Rachele, but i think he goes a bit later), but Crows might look to split if the opportunity arises.

If Ward/Hobbs are still on the board at Crows pick i think Hawks would be dumb not to put an offer in to move up.

 

[HairyO]

The Suns new VFL coach might be a strong advocate for them taking Finn Callaghan with pick 3

Everyone wants to get Pick 2 off GWS so they can take him then. And I would think the only reason GWS dont take him at 2 (if they keep the pick) is if he does a Wingard and tells them he will sit out a year rather than move to Sydney.

 

[WeedsMullet84]

Isn't the general feeling is thay GWS won't pick a midfielder? They could do a deal with suns, they both get what they want (Suns could throw in a 2022 sweetener) Whether GWS go for Gibcus or even Andrew if they don't think he'll last til their next pick.

I don't think GC are after a midfielder either. They're perfectly placed to get Gibcus at their pick which is a positional need and best available.

 

[conVINCEd]

I don't think GC are after a midfielder either. They're perfectly placed to get Gibcus at their pick which is a positional need and best available.

Not if GWS drafts him.

 

[briztoon]

Not if GWS drafts him.

All the rumours are that GWS want Mac Andrew.

 

[Maybe Tomorrow]

Not if GWS drafts him.

If GWS take Gibcus then we just take Callaghan. Or auction pick 3 and take the best tall we can for whatever pick we end up with.

 

[WeedsMullet84]

Not if GWS drafts him.

Regardless Callaghan is gone by Pick 4 after bids on Darcy and Daicos. It'll be GWS that take him (unlikely) or they'll trade down to a club that will take him at that pick anyway.

 

[GWS Goose]

Regardless Callaghan is gone by Pick 4 after bids on Darcy and Daicos. It'll be GWS that take him (unlikely) or they'll trade down to a club that will take him at that pick anyway.

I dont think it is all that unlikely we take Callaghan.
There has been talk that he is one that we like.

 

[Wrenny]

Here we go:

#1 North Melbourne - Jason Horne-Francis
#2 Western Bulldogs - Sam Darcy (F/S) Matched
#3 Collingwood - Nick Daicos (F/S) Matched
#4 Hawthorn - Finn Callaghan
#5 Gold Coast Suns - Josh Gibcus
#6 Adelaide - Ben Hobbs
#7 GWS - Mac Andrew
#8 Fremantle - Neil Erasmus
#9 Richmond - Josh Ward
#10 Fremantle - Josh Rachele
#11 St Kilda - Josh Goater
#12 West Coast Eagles - Matthew Johnson
#13 Essendon - Jye Amiss
#14 Port Adelaide - Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera
#15 GWS Giants - Josh Sinn
#16 Brisbane Lions - Mitchito Owens
#17 Richmond - Jacob Van Rooyen
#18 Sydney Swans - Sam Butler
#19 Melbourne - Tyler Sonsie
#20 Brisbane Lions - Arlo Draper
#21 - Fremantle - Rhett Bazzo
#22 - North Melbourne - Jesse Motlop
#23 - GWS - Mitch Knevitt
#24 - GWS - Josh Fahey (Bid Matched)
#25 - Geelong - Tom Brown
#26 - Hawthorn - Darcy Wilmot
#27 - Carlton - Blake Howes
#28 - Richmond - Campbell Chesser
#29 - Richmond - Zac Taylor
#30 - Richmond - Connor Macdonald
#31 - West Coast - Angus Sheldrick
#32 - Geelong - Toby Conway
#33 - Sydney - Matthew Roberts
#34 - Geelong - Judson Clarke
#35 - Adelaide - Cooper Murley
#36 - Geelong - Ned Long
#37 - West Coast - Alastair Lord
#38 - Collingwood - Sam Banks
#39 - Melbourne - Jack Williams

GWS trade Pick 2 & future 4th for Hawthorn pick 5 & 21.

 

[GWS Goose]

Here we go:

#1 North Melbourne - Jason Horne-Francis
#2 Western Bulldogs - Sam Darcy (F/S) Matched
#3 Collingwood - Nick Daicos (F/S) Matched
#4 Hawthorn - Finn Callaghan
#5 Gold Coast Suns - Josh Gibcus
#6 Adelaide - Ben Hobbs
#7 GWS - Mac Andrew
#8 Fremantle - Neil Erasmus
#9 Richmond - Josh Ward
#10 Fremantle - Josh Rachele
#11 St Kilda - Josh Goater
#12 West Coast Eagles - Matthew Johnson
#13 Essendon - Jye Amiss
#14 Port Adelaide - Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera
#15 GWS Giants - Josh Sinn
#16 Brisbane Lions - Mitchito Owens
#17 Richmond - Jacob Van Rooyen
#18 Sydney Swans - Sam Butler
#19 Melbourne - Tyler Sonsie
#20 Brisbane Lions - Arlo Draper
#21 - Fremantle - Rhett Bazzo
#22 - North Melbourne - Jesse Motlop
#23 - GWS - Mitch Knevitt
#24 - GWS - Josh Fahey (Bid Matched)
#25 - Geelong - Tom Brown
#26 - Hawthorn - Darcy Wilmot
#27 - Carlton - Blake Howes
#28 - Richmond - Campbell Chesser
#29 - Richmond - Zac Taylor
#30 - Richmond - Connor Macdonald
#31 - West Coast - Angus Sheldrick
#32 - Geelong - Toby Conway
#33 - Sydney - Matthew Roberts
#34 - Geelong - Judson Clarke
#35 - Adelaide - Cooper Murley
#36 - Geelong - Ned Long
#37 - West Coast - Alastair Lord
#38 - Collingwood - Sam Banks
#39 - Melbourne - Jack Williams

GWS trade Pick 2 & future 4th for Hawthorn pick 5 & 21.

We won't even use 21, zero chance of us making that trade

 

[Orange Agent]

We take Andrew at our 2nd pick, if he's gone, so be it. Previously we have traded up to get guys like Callaghan.

 

[TylerDurden]

We won't even use 21, zero chance of us making that trade

Don't reckon we do it either. We want 3 bites in the first 25.

 

[Orange crush]

Here we go:

#1 North Melbourne - Jason Horne-Francis
#2 Western Bulldogs - Sam Darcy (F/S) Matched
#3 Collingwood - Nick Daicos (F/S) Matched
#4 Hawthorn - Finn Callaghan
#5 Gold Coast Suns - Josh Gibcus
#6 Adelaide - Ben Hobbs
#7 GWS - Mac Andrew
#8 Fremantle - Neil Erasmus
#9 Richmond - Josh Ward
#10 Fremantle - Josh Rachele
#11 St Kilda - Josh Goater
#12 West Coast Eagles - Matthew Johnson
#13 Essendon - Jye Amiss
#14 Port Adelaide - Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera
#15 GWS Giants - Josh Sinn
#16 Brisbane Lions - Mitchito Owens
#17 Richmond - Jacob Van Rooyen
#18 Sydney Swans - Sam Butler
#19 Melbourne - Tyler Sonsie
#20 Brisbane Lions - Arlo Draper
#21 - Fremantle - Rhett Bazzo
#22 - North Melbourne - Jesse Motlop
#23 - GWS - Mitch Knevitt
#24 - GWS - Josh Fahey (Bid Matched)
#25 - Geelong - Tom Brown
#26 - Hawthorn - Darcy Wilmot
#27 - Carlton - Blake Howes
#28 - Richmond - Campbell Chesser
#29 - Richmond - Zac Taylor
#30 - Richmond - Connor Macdonald
#31 - West Coast - Angus Sheldrick
#32 - Geelong - Toby Conway
#33 - Sydney - Matthew Roberts
#34 - Geelong - Judson Clarke
#35 - Adelaide - Cooper Murley
#36 - Geelong - Ned Long
#37 - West Coast - Alastair Lord
#38 - Collingwood - Sam Banks
#39 - Melbourne - Jack Williams

GWS trade Pick 2 & future 4th for Hawthorn pick 5 & 21.

Not sure that trade works for either team and it undervalues pick 2 considerably

 

[BIG DAN 99]

Crows won't pick Hobbs, inside midfielder is the one position they don't need, mids and small fwd both with speed and kicking skills with scoreboard impact are the big focus this year and next