List Mgmt. 2021 NAB National AFL Draft

[Lore]

Scuse the intrusion folks. Thought you might like to have this resource in your thread

 

[Jen2310]

Opposition recruiters are tipping North Melbourne to next month make South Adelaide phenom Jason Horne-Francis the dux of this year’s AFL draft class.
The 2021 draft is one of the most fascinating in years, given two of the other top three prospects – Nick Daicos and Sam Darcy – are linked to Collingwood and Western Bulldogs, respectively, as father-son picks.


Only two of the 11 AFL recruiters the Herald Sun spoke to said they would place a bid on Daicos and/or Darcy at No.1, with both talent scouts rating Daicos the best player in it.

But most believed Horne-Francis’ blistering form throughout the SANFL finals, particularly his 24-disposal, three-goal, 11-clearance preliminary final effort, had shot him to the top.

Others struggled to split Horne-Francis and Daicos, including one saying not being able to watch the latter at the national championships or in an equivalent senior competition worked against him.


The feeling was Daicos was capable of similar performances if he had played in the SANFL.

Horne-Francis told the Herald Sun this week he had set himself the challenge of being the first picked, and several recruiters said he was the type of personality who would appreciate that honour.

This year’s scenario follows Adelaide bidding last year on the Bulldogs’ Next Generation Academy graduate Jamarra Ugle-Hagan at No.1 before grabbing South Australian Riley Thilthorpe after the Dogs matched.


The Crows’ decision owed to more than making the Western Bulldogs accountable.

Their intel suggested the Dogs shared an interest with them in small forward James Rowe later in the draft, so by placing a bid on Ugle-Hagan it forced them to use most of their draft points to match.


That meant the Bulldogs didn’t re-enter the draft until pick 55, with Adelaide selecting Rowe at No.38.

The Magpies are prepared to match any bid for Daicos, who has already agreed to a four-year contract rather than the usual two seasons for a national draftee.

There is a good chance the son of club great Peter Daicos and brother of current Collingwood footballer Josh will tumble to No.3 if, as expected, the Kangaroos select Horne-Francis first.

That would be a major win for the Pies, because they would have to use only 1787 draft points to match the bid rather than 2400 if North calls Daicos’ name No.1 overall.

Those points are after the 20 per cent, first-round discount is applied.

Collingwood has almost 1600 points from its draft hand of picks 36, 41, 43 and 48, but still has to broker trades for Patrick Lipinski

1

Patrick Lipinski

Age

26

Ht

190cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.0

4star

K

7.8

3star

HB

10.2

5star

M

3.5

4star

T

2.8

4star

CL

1.5

4star

D

18.3

4star

K

7.0

3star

HB

11.3

5star

M

2.5

3star

T

2.7

4star

CL

1.3

4star

D

15.2

4star

K

6.6

3star

HB

8.6

5star

M

2.4

3star

T

2.4

4star

CL

1.2

4star

and Nathan Kreuger, who want to cross to the Magpies.


They can go into draft points deficit if required, but that would result in their first pick next year sliding down the order to compensate.

Collingwood traded its 2021 first-round pick to the Giants last year in anticipation of drafting Daicos, but the club’s tumble to 17th on the ladder was a shock.

GWS has the second pick from that deal and its national recruiting manager, Adrian Caruso, is on record saying he would likely bid on key-position talent Darcy before Daicos on a needs basis.


That same logic is why recruiters believe the Giants will target 200cm ruckman Mac Andrew or key defender Josh Gibcus rather than the next-best midfielder, Finn Callaghan.

Andrew came through Melbourne’s Next Generation Academy, but the Demons can’t match a bid on him unless he falls outside the first 20 picks, because of new rules introduced this year.

No Cookies | Herald Sun

No Cookies

www.heraldsun.com.au

 

[TradeDraft]

No Cookies | Herald Sun

No Cookies

www.heraldsun.com.au

So has Recurters changed there Mind of Nick as they said he was Clearly the Best Talent in the Draft not long ago

 

[Jen2310]

So has Recurters changed there Mind of Nick as they said he was Clearly the Best Talent in the Draft not long ago

It was always line ball between him and Horne, no championships for Nick and Horne performing strongly might have just pushed him above.

Nothing wrong with that, just how things have gone with covid.

 

[partypie]

With the points we've lost because of FA compensation picks, does anyone know which pick we get Daicos with no deficit?

Maybe Pick 4

The bidding "capacity" of our picks as they currently stand works out to 1,594 * 1.25 = 1,992 points.

That would cover a bid at pick 5 (1,878 points) but it would leave us a little short for pick 4 (2,034 points), by 42 points to be exact.

We've got a bit of work to do to make up the shortfall we are facing and we will probably have to go in with 2,500+ points worth of usable picks just in case whoever has pick 1 does throw us a curveball.

 

[partypie]

So has Recurters changed there Mind of Nick as they said he was Clearly the Best Talent in the Draft not long ago

It's the inevitable result of Nick barely having played any football the past couple of years and no representative football at all.

JHF put up a strong finals campaign and that preliminary final effort in the SANFL seniors is as good a showing from an U18s prospect in an overage game as we've seen for a while.

 

[Rusty Beam]

So has Recurters changed there Mind of Nick as they said he was Clearly the Best Talent in the Draft not long ago

-Two out of the eleven said he was the best.

-Supposedly most of the 11 said JHF had shot to the top.

-Whilst others (plural) struggled to split them.

That is the weirdest representation of distribution of opinion the journo could have come up with.

 

[The Royal Sampler]

It’s sounding more and more like he will go no sooner than #3. Great news if true.

 

[DWil6]

It’s sounding more and more like he will go no sooner than #3. Great news if true.

Very good news. Not sure how we keep our first pick from dropping next year though if we take both of Krueger and Lipinski. I guess Dib is a long shot too.

 

[The Royal Sampler]

Very good news. Not sure how we keep our first pick from dropping next year though if we take both of Krueger and Lipinski. I guess Dib is a long shot too.

Not at all.

Trade Lynch to the Dogs for Lipinski.
Trade a future 3rd to the Cats for Kreuger.
Trade a few of our existing picks back for more points, e.g. to Brisbane.
Bid comes at #3 and we match for Nicky D.
Bid for Dib comes after #40 and we match with ANY pick.
Done.

Didn’t even have to use the PSD.

 

[DWil6]

Not at all.

Trade Lynch to the Dogs for Lipinski.
Trade a future 3rd to the Cats for Kreuger.
Trade a few of our existing picks back for more points, e.g. to Brisbane.
Bid comes at #3 and we match for Nicky D.
Bid for Dib comes after #40 and we match with ANY pick.
Done.

Didn’t even have to use the PSD.

Are the dogs even interested in Lynch? Also feel Dib might go before 40.

 

[Jen2310]

Are the dogs even interested in Lynch? Also feel Dib might go before 40.

The feeling is Dib will go post top 40. Especially with no championships.

 

[Harry O]

Are the dogs even interested in Lynch? Also feel Dib might go before 40.

Absolutely no chance.
And if Daicos goes at 3 or 4, we should be able to get 1 or 2 more picks before Dib

 

[sr36]

Just a thought on the draft, there is too much scope to influence the draft by picking a father son prospect just to make it harder (or spite) for the destination club to get their man. I don't think this is in the spirit of the draft. How to solve this?? Change the rules. If a club picks a father son and it is matched by the destination club, then the club who made the selection drops back one spot thus risking the player they really want. Simples!

That'd tilt the balance way too much in the other direction. Eg. Why would anyone bid on Daicos at all, knowing that the only result would be them downgrading their own pick - he'd go undrafted, until we took him really really late. But I do know what you mean, I think we bid on two academy kids last year so that the Reef bid would slip until later in the draft and cost us less points.

 

[jonbe54]

That'd tilt the balance way too much in the other direction. Eg. Why would anyone bid on Daicos at all, knowing that the only result would be them downgrading their own pick - he'd go undrafted, until we took him really really late. But I do know what you mean, I think we bid on two academy kids last year so that the Reef bid would slip until later in the draft and cost us less points.

It does warp the system, finding a balanced response is problematic for the wisest - totally inconceivable for the AFL.

 

[The Royal Sampler]

Are the dogs even interested in Lynch? Also feel Dib might go before 40.

Honestly, no idea, but many have mentioned it. Feel free to exchange for “Lynch traded for pick which is on-traded to Bulldogs for Lipinski”.

 

[Scodog10]

Just a thought on the draft, there is too much scope to influence the draft by picking a father son prospect just to make it harder (or spite) for the destination club to get their man. I don't think this is in the spirit of the draft. How to solve this?? Change the rules. If a club picks a father son and it is matched by the destination club, then the club who made the selection drops back one spot thus risking the player they really want. Simples!

To clarify if Collingwood retained pick 2 and we wanted to bid on Darcy (assuming North didn’t) we’d be punished for it? I don’t like the system either, but that’s not the solution!

A far simpler one that punishes no one is that every club receives priority access to one player per year. Be it a FS, NGA, northern academy or Mother Son (one day) they’re pre-draft selections and you can roll it over for one year only (for instance we lose priority access to Dib because we had Reef last year). It allows the system to revert to a clean draft, every club receives the same access to priority players and it’s the luck of the draw*.

*Admittedly I think we’d do well out of it given the quality of the Chargers over the past decade.

 

[WinstonWolfe]

There should be no academies, no NGAs and no father-sons.
Only way to make it fair.

 

[sr36]

It does warp the system, finding a balanced response is problematic for the wisest - totally inconceivable for the AFL.

I think the current system is pretty good. And Pies have made it really fair with both Quaynor and Daicos, by intentionally trading away any advantage that is inherent in the system - kudos to us - we truly are the working class club that stands for equality - even to our own detriment.

 

[sr36]

There should be no academies, no NGAs and no father-sons.
Only way to make it fair.

And make the ball round, so it bounces fairly. We can't have teams getting lucky breaks.

 

[Gabbo64]

There should be no academies, no NGAs and no father-sons.
Only way to make it fair.

I agree on the no F/S. I mean, how else are we going to make it a heartless, soulless competition.

 

[Moore of the Same]

There should be no academies, no NGAs and no father-sons.
Only way to make it fair.

Nah.

 

[Soups]

And make the ball round, so it bounces fairly. We can't have teams getting lucky breaks.

That bounce would have gone straight into Milne’s hands

 

[MyManLynch]

There should be no academies, no NGAs and no father-sons.
Only way to make it fair.

The fixture has to be fixed first.
18 teams & 22 games doesn’t compute…that‘s not fair
Soft draws v hard draws.

 

[Jen2310]

The comp is full of compomises, its never gonna be fair.

 

[WinstonWolfe]

I agree on the no F/S. I mean, how else are we going to make it a heartless, soulless competition.

Sure there's a sense of romanticism having a son play for the same team as his father.

However, I can't think of any other sporting league which has a father/son/daughter concession. Not sure you could call say a Celtic fan passionless because he is supporting a club in a 'heartless, soulless' competition.
Whether is be the NFL, NBA, PremierLeague or whatever, I doubt whether their leagues are the lesser because of it.

But the reality is that this is the direction the AFL competition is heading. Free agency was just the beginning.