List Mgmt. 2021 NAB National AFL Draft

[Lore]

Scuse the intrusion folks. Thought you might like to have this resource in your thread

 

[Jekyll and Hyde]

Question?
Does anyone know the answer to this:
If Darcy gets a bid before Daicos, do the removal of all of western bulldog picks prior to ours mean our picks automatically get upgraded with more points? (Moving up the draft board?)

 

[Jen2310]

Question?
Does anyone know the answer to this:
If Darcy gets a bid before Daicos, do the removal of all of western bulldog picks prior to ours mean our picks automatically get upgraded with more points? (Moving up the draft board?)

Thats getting technical... But I think so.

Lore do you know the answer?

 

[Harry O]

Question?
Does anyone know the answer to this:
If Darcy gets a bid before Daicos, do the removal of all of western bulldog picks prior to ours mean our picks automatically get upgraded with more points? (Moving up the draft board?)

Yes

 

[Jekyll and Hyde]

Yes

Thanks. I thought so.
It could be huge if we could trade 27 before the Daicos bid and all of our later picks in the 40s would move up at least 4 picks each.

 

[Lore]

Thats getting technical... But I think so.

Lore do you know the answer?

Yes. Similarly, picks which move back only have the value of the position they are assigned, not an in-between value.

 

[partypie]

Question?
Does anyone know the answer to this:
If Darcy gets a bid before Daicos, do the removal of all of western bulldog picks prior to ours mean our picks automatically get upgraded with more points? (Moving up the draft board?)

Short answer - yes, our later picks will shift forwards to varying degrees.

Long answer - hold onto your hat as this will take a while:

Any pick(s) we have will initially pushed back one spot (due to the Doggies moving up to pick 2) and then each pick we have moves up a number of spots equivalent to the number of earlier Doggies picks that were used up in the bid match. The Doggies will get an extra pick later in the draft (see below), which will push any picks we have that follow back one spot further.

As the situation currently stands if a bid for Darcy came in at pick 2 then that would require 2,013 points to match, while the Doggies currently have picks 23 (815), 43 (378), 44 (362), 45 (347), 52 (246), which adds up to 2,148 points.

When a pick 2 bid is matched the result is that all five of their picks will need to be used, with the Doggies getting 2,148 - 2,013 = 145 points back (pick 61).

After that our picks would shift forwards accordingly:

27 + 1 - 1 = 27 (no change)
36 + 1 - 1 = 36 (no change)
46 + 1 - 4 = 43
48 + 1 - 4 = 45
55 + 1 - 5 = 51
58 + 1 - 5 = 54
78 + 2 - 5 = 75
79 + 2 - 5 = 76

The end result is that we we would end up with picks 27 (703), 36 (502), 43 (378), 45 (347), 51 (259), 54 (220), 74, 79 = 2,409 points, after a pick 2 bid match on Darcy.

This would automatically leave us with enough points to match a bid at pick 4 (if it comes there) with picks 36, 43, 45, 51 and 54 (1,706 points in total versus 1,627 points required to match a pick 4 bid), so we'd be safe to trade out pick 27 during the live draft if the bid on Darcy came at pick 2 and the bid on Daicos didn't come at pick 3.

This is just an sample working for the current scenario with each club's picks and assuming the bid on Darcy comes at Pick 2, but there are a lot of moving parts here (including trades yet to be completed eg. Lynch) which could / will obviously change the outcome.

Having taken the time to work this out though GW's strategy is becoming a little clearer I think, in terms of what he may be hedging his bets on and especially why he shifted out pick 22, as it would have been pushed back to pick 23 anyway and would not really have benefited from an earlier bid match on Darcy in the way our later picks would / will.

 

[Jekyll and Hyde]

Short answer - yes, our later picks will shift forwards to varying degrees.

Long answer - hold your hat as this will take a while:

Any pick(s) we have will initially pushed back one spot (due to the Doggies moving up to pick 2) and then each pick we have moves up a number of spots equivalent to the number of earlier Doggies picks that were used up in the bid match. The Doggies will get an extra pick later in the draft (see below), which will push any picks we have that follow back one spot further.

As the situation currently stands if a bid for Darcy came in at pick 2 then that would require 2,013 points to match, while the Doggies currently have picks 23 (815), 43 (378), 44 (362), 45 (347), 52 (246), which adds up to 2,148 points.

When a pick 2 bid is matched the result is that all five of their picks will need to be used, with the Doggies getting 2,148 - 2,013 = 145 points back (pick 61).

After that our picks would shift forwards accordingly:

27 + 1 - 1 = 27 (no change)
36 + 1 - 1 = 36 (no change)
46 + 1 - 4 = 43
48 + 1 - 4 = 45
55 + 1 - 5 = 51
58 + 1 - 5 = 54
78 + 2 - 5 = 75
79 + 2 - 5 = 76

The end result is that we we would end up with picks 27 (703), 36 (502), 43 (378), 45 (347), 51 (259), 54 (220), 74, 79 = 2,409 points, after a pick 2 bid match on Darcy.

This would automatically leave us with enough points to match a bid at pick 4 (if it comes there) with picks 36, 43, 45, 51 and 54 (1,706 points in total versus 1,627 points required to match a pick 4 bid), so we'd be safe to trade out pick 27 during the live draft if the bid on Darcy came at pick 2 and the bid on Daicos didn't come at pick 3.

This is just an sample working for the current scenario with each club's picks and assuming the bid on Darcy comes at Pick 2, but there are a lot of moving parts here (including trades yet to be completed eg. Lynch) which could / will obviously change the outcome.

Having taken the time to work this out though GW's strategy is becoming a little clearer I think, in terms of what he may be hedging his bets on and especially why he shifted out pick 22, as it would have been pushed back to pick 23 anyway and would not really have benefited from an earlier bid match on Darcy in the way our later picks would / will.

Great answer. Appreciate it.

 

[partypie]

Great answer. Appreciate it.

No problem.

Apologies for the meaty read - it took me a bit of time to get my head around it all and then describe it as succinctly as I could in writing, but I was curious as to how it would actually pan out and what that might potentially mean in terms of GW's thought processes behind the moves he has been making so I figured I'd follow through after putting the TL;DR first...

 

[soreplums]

Lynch and a third rounder to the Hawks? What are we getting back?

 

[sr36]

Thanks. I thought so.
It could be huge if we could trade 27 before the Daicos bid and all of our later picks in the 40s would move up at least 4 picks each.

Only the late ones would move up that much. They'd move one down due to Darcy being added into the draft order, but then one up for every matching pick before them -27 would move to 28 and they're not likely to have a pick before then that disappears, so it stays at 28.

 

[jonbe54]

Short answer - yes, our later picks will shift forwards to varying degrees.

Long answer - hold onto your hat as this will take a while:

Any pick(s) we have will initially pushed back one spot (due to the Doggies moving up to pick 2) and then each pick we have moves up a number of spots equivalent to the number of earlier Doggies picks that were used up in the bid match. The Doggies will get an extra pick later in the draft (see below), which will push any picks we have that follow back one spot further.

As the situation currently stands if a bid for Darcy came in at pick 2 then that would require 2,013 points to match, while the Doggies currently have picks 23 (815), 43 (378), 44 (362), 45 (347), 52 (246), which adds up to 2,148 points.

When a pick 2 bid is matched the result is that all five of their picks will need to be used, with the Doggies getting 2,148 - 2,013 = 145 points back (pick 61).

After that our picks would shift forwards accordingly:

27 + 1 - 1 = 27 (no change)
36 + 1 - 1 = 36 (no change)
46 + 1 - 4 = 43
48 + 1 - 4 = 45
55 + 1 - 5 = 51
58 + 1 - 5 = 54
78 + 2 - 5 = 75
79 + 2 - 5 = 76

The end result is that we we would end up with picks 27 (703), 36 (502), 43 (378), 45 (347), 51 (259), 54 (220), 74, 79 = 2,409 points, after a pick 2 bid match on Darcy.

This would automatically leave us with enough points to match a bid at pick 4 (if it comes there) with picks 36, 43, 45, 51 and 54 (1,706 points in total versus 1,627 points required to match a pick 4 bid), so we'd be safe to trade out pick 27 during the live draft if the bid on Darcy came at pick 2 and the bid on Daicos didn't come at pick 3.

This is just an sample working for the current scenario with each club's picks and assuming the bid on Darcy comes at Pick 2, but there are a lot of moving parts here (including trades yet to be completed eg. Lynch) which could / will obviously change the outcome.

Having taken the time to work this out though GW's strategy is becoming a little clearer I think, in terms of what he may be hedging his bets on and especially why he shifted out pick 22, as it would have been pushed back to pick 23 anyway and would not really have benefited from an earlier bid match on Darcy in the way our later picks would / will.

OMFG what mares nest.

 

[Anzacday]

Apologies for the meaty read

No apology needed, thanks for the effort.
Also explains why dogs were keen on 36 instead of 58, (well done GW he knew 43 would still work).

 

[Quicky]

Charlie Dean - 20yo - 195cm - 86kg
Key Defender from Williamstown



Got a nice kick on him!

 

[sr36]

Charlie Dean - 20yo - 195cm - 86kg
Key Defender from Williamstown



Got a nice kick on him!

He looked a good player, but unconvincing in the air for an AFL kpd.

 

[manicpie]

Lynch and a third rounder to the Hawks? What are we getting back?

A much needed list spot which was being taken up by a very average player

 

[gouki88]

Charlie Dean - 20yo - 195cm - 86kg
Key Defender from Williamstown



Got a nice kick on him!

Grew up a few years older than him, get him in! Is one of the premier VFL key defenders at 20 years old.

 

[Soups]

Early look into next year from Ed.

I’ll be watching Lemmey with a lot of interest next year. I think we’ll need a top 3 pick.

 

[Quicky]

He looked a good player, but unconvincing in the air for an AFL kpd.

I had the same thought. It'd be good to see highlights from some other games. Still there were some strong qualities. That kick was something.

 

[Crazy Tails]

So in the wash up (for now) our draft hand for next month ends up as:

27, 36, 46, 48, 55, 58, 78, 79

My hope from here is that the Daicos bid comes in at 3 or later which gives us more flexibility to turn 27 into something else.

If the bid comes in at 3 I think we will need to turn 27 into one future pick and one current pick; ie: 27 and one of our future 3rds for a future 2nd and a pick in the 50s this year to cover the small deficit. There will be no impact on list spot issues here as 27 will just be replaced with a later pick this year (with the other next year).

If we were to get so lucky to have Daicos get to 4 I would hope that we are working hard to turn 27 along with both of our future 3rds into Brisbane's future 1st. They need extra points for Ashcroft next year so might jump at moving out their first for something this year and more points for next year (even more so after losing one of their 3rds in getting Fort).

 

[Apex36]

Early look into next year from Ed.

I’ll be watching Lemmey with a lot of interest next year. I think we’ll need a top 3 pick.

6 key forwards in Ed’s top 20. Looks like we’ll have access to one almost regardless of where we finish!

 

[Soups]

6 key forwards in Ed’s top 20. Looks like we’ll have access to one almost regardless of where we finish!

Watch us take a mid

 

[SchuPie]

Early look into next year from Ed.

I’ll be watching Lemmey with a lot of interest next year. I think we’ll need a top 3 pick.

Who knows but I feel we may finish mid-table next year if we stay health / few injuries

As such, I'm hoping our choices would be

i) If we think we won't have high enough pick to grab who we want, trade into this year
ii) Use it bundled with 2023 first for a KPF
iii) Grab a slider
iv) Use 2023 first to move up


I don't like hoping we'll lose so that we'll finish near the bottom

 

[Jen2310]

 

[The Royal Sampler]

Early look into next year from Ed.

I’ll be watching Lemmey with a lot of interest next year. I think we’ll need a top 3 pick.

Think we need to prioritize drafting Will Elliott. Think of the confusion we could create by putting Will Kelly, Jamie Elliott, Will Hoskin-Elliott and Will Elliott on the park at the same time…

 

[Soups]

Think we need to prioritize drafting Will Elliott. Think of the confusion we could create by putting Will Kelly, Jamie Elliott, Will Hoskin-Elliott and Will Elliott on the park at the same time…

You know this is going to happen now. We have a rich history with player’s names