2022 Victorian State Election-November 26

[QuietB]

Also what actual plans do LNP have for debt?

Wasn't it sell Werribee?

 

[Home Alone]

Next election the Liberals will have to counter;

• Footscray hospital will be brand new and finished in 2025
• Metro tunnel will be brand new and open in 2025
• Level crossings will be ongoing - not sure when they finish
• Suburban rail loop may have turned soil
• Melbourne airport rail will have turned soil
• There will be an election in late 2026.
• liberals will still be kooks

Good luck happy clappers and cookers

Unless there are resignations and by-elections, they are also going in with the same team and a bunch of draftees.

 

[Dave]

I always thought Labor would win and comfortably, but I did expect some large swings in the south east.

I half expected one of the Narre Warren seats to fall or at least be in doubt.

Wasn't going to be Narre North with the cooker the libs put up. "Bloody aboriginals"......

 

[Nikita Blue]

wooo hooo beer time

Kenny talking about mainstream values.

 

[Dave]

So at this stage the ABC is projecting 51 seats minimum for the ALP, with the ALP ahead in 5 of the remaining 8 seats still not decided.

This means it is quite possible they end up with 56 - one more than what was considered a crushing victory in 2018. So much for the referendum on Dan and the voters delivering their verdict on his handling of COVID.

But but Jeffrey told us because he won it wasn't a referendum on Dan!!??!!?@!

 

[QuietB]

Unless there are resignations and by-elections, they are also going in with the same team and a bunch of draftees.

I think Dan steps aside and they have a brand new team with zero baggage. I believe Dan already wanted to be gone but the pandemic and other retirements kiboshed that.

If Labor can manage to stem the debt there is literally nothing that the Liberals will be able to campaign on. A new leader will be a cleanskin, infrastructure will be continuing everywhere, if Labor can perform economically then it is a lay down misere.

 

[Hank Scorpion]

Unless there are resignations and by-elections, they are also going in with the same team and a bunch of draftees.

They are going to make 2026 with 7 MPs/MLCs who will have notched 20+ years. Two from the Kennett era - the others with one miserable term in office between them.

None of them are especially erudite or holding a hard-to-win seat on account of a personal vote. Most should have been dumped this time around.

Only problem is that they probably have more pentecostals waiting in the wings to replace them.


By contrast, Labor moved on most of it's remaining cohort from the Bracks-era this time: Andrews, Allan and D'Ambrosio are the only ones from pre-06. They have a number of fresh-faced MPs coming in and have consistently turned over their ministry before things get stale.

 

[Dave]

What did Neil Mitchell say about Labor's win in his 3AW program this morning?

On 5002X using BigFooty.com mobile app

Who cares?

 

[Chadwiko]

Interesting that every pollster overestimated support for the Greens with predictions of 12-14% primary vote. (At this point 10.89%).

Not sure downplaying the Greens after their best ever Victorian state election is a strategy I would have gone with.

As you note they're on 10.9% which is a +0.2% swing to them, currently with 65%~ of the vote counted. And that number is tipped to rise a bit more, as the green base embraced prepolls and mail voting.

In an election that saw more votes than ever go to centre-left + left candidates (teals, AJP, socialists, reason etc), the fact that the Greens not only maintained their 2018 polling but also bettered it is incredible. And they won more seats, to boot.

 

[Home Alone]

I think Dan steps aside and they have a brand new team with zero baggage. I believe Dan already wanted to be gone but the pandemic and other retirements kiboshed that.

If Labor can manage to stem the debt there is literally nothing that the Liberals will be able to campaign on. A new leader will be a cleanskin, infrastructure will be continuing everywhere, if Labor can perform economically then it is a lay down misere.

I was thinking about the the LNP.

They are starting the season with Guy, O'Brien, Davis, Crozier, Battin, Newbury, Roswell. A history of being ineffectual at turning and gaining political ground

Pesutto comes back, A couple of new draftees and speculative picks in Heath and Deeming. And then we have the 2026 candidates.

They don't have the personal to combat your original points of infrastructure delivery.

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

I think it's probably more sinister than that. It's not groupthink, it's a desire to influence.

By providing false analysis you can falsely normalise a public viewpoint that isn't real. By reporting on the possibility of a hung parliament, media are try to tell voters that they aren't extremists, they aren't on the fringes if they vote a particular way, and that voting a particular way is equally as valid as the other regardless of the political, policy and performance reality.

Absolutely. I think the writer was being diplomatic and hoping we’d read between the lines.

 

[Home Alone]

They are going to make 2026 with 7 MPs/MLCs who will have notched 20+ years. Two from the Kennett era - the others with one miserable term in office between them.

None of them are especially erudite or holding a hard-to-win seat on account of a personal vote. Most should have been dumped this time around.

Only problem is that they probably have more pentecostals waiting in the wings to replace them.


By contrast, Labor moved on most of it's remaining cohort from the Bracks-era this time: Andrews, Allan and D'Ambrosio are the only ones from pre-06. They have a number of fresh-faced MPs coming in and have consistently turned over their ministry before things get stale.

The point I was trying to make

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

This is why we need to be vigilant and keep pushing back against the Murdoch press and the cookers. Any complacency and they will strike back.

We have a good chance to put them into oblivion for a long time though, if cards played right.

I’m up for it!

 

[Hyakutake]

Picked a great time to emigrate to the UK.

Imagine living and voting to continue to live under such a authoritarian dictatorship.

Really shows that the screams of horror about Trump being a dictator was just tribal lip service.

Most here can't live without it.

Welcome to Brexit UK. Should be just right for you.

 

[deck]

I found this genuinely baffling

the libs and the HUN were actually campaigning AGAINST level crossing removals (I lost track of how many articles I read on the one at Surrey Hills)

The stupid thing is people hate the removal process, but once its done, they love the outcome

you think they would have learnt after skyrail (which they tried to rinse and repeat for the Franga line to no success)

It was even funnier that they went with removing intersections with bridges over the top so you didn't have to stop at congested intersections on a main arterial road.

To dumb to realise you just move the congestion to the next set of lights. It only works if you remove a long distance of them and they are called freeways.

 

[CrazyJoeFevola]

When the Australian public was not interested in Communism and the union movement flirted with communism the Labor party was unelectable for decades.

Right now, the liberal party are unelectable.

The difference is, the communist working class in the 1950s and 1960s were powerless. The cookers who are making the libs unelectable are given a platform by the biggest media company in Australia. The other thing is that we're politically connected to the US where this crap flies. Trump will never win another general election, but the fascist movement that propelled him to power will still control around 30% of the voting public.

What I expect to see in Australia is the transition from Boomers to Millenials, Gen X being here the whole time.

Turnbull, Birmingham, the Teals and the Labor party will be a socially progressive, environmentally "conscious" conservative movement. The Greens will head a coalition of lefties and be the least left of them.

The cookers in the Liberal party will continue to drag it further to the right and people like Turnbull and Birmingham will leave it. This will leave the libs in coalition with Nationals, UAP and one-nation. I actually expect the Nationals to leave that coalition and be a genuinely independent country party.

Make no mistake. The Libs are dead. It might take people 10 years to realise, but they are gone. You might say they're cooked.

Yes. i agree. But the union movement led by communists was at its strongest. Particularly the BLF led by the CPA (ML). Malone, Gallagher and Cummins turned BLs from paupers to good wage earners within 25 years. Bosses hated it. So they bought off Hawke and Cain and the traitors crucified them

 

[sandeano]

I waited for 11 trains at Carnegie crossing once (Dandenong line, Packenham Line, VLine to Sale & Traralgon). It took about 45 minutes.

There is not one person on earth who misses that level crossing.

Apropos of nothing, the old station held some memories for me for the I spent a couple of years there in the late 70s and there was a big hoo-ha at the time about a pair of magpies who had taken nest in the station's roof and were swooping at passengers and Vic Rail were going to have them shot (the birds, not the passengers). In fact we had to do a debate about the pros and cons of the proposal in class.

If I remember correctly they were apparently moved on (probably shot when no-one was looking).

But yeah, that level crossing was hell.

 

[fishardansin]

Yes. i agree. But the union movement led by communists was at its strongest. Particularly the BLF led by the CPA (ML). Malone, Gallagher and Cummins turned BLs from paupers to good wage earners within 25 years. Bosses hated it. So they bought off Hawke and Cain and the traitors crucified them

I am partial to marxism/anarchism. However, it was not going to be electoral successful in Australia during the cold war.

 

[CrazyJoeFevola]

2026 looks like a really interesting election right now. Labor lost a lot of ground in the traditional heartland, but have plenty of post-COVID opportunity to shore that up by significantly improving infrastructure and services in the outer north and west. There should also be some positive feelings from the Metro Tunnel and West Gate Tunnel completions (maybe more a sense of relief that the latter will be done)

But can the Libs reinvent themselves as an electable alternative and capitalise on those swings to potentially topple some seats? Will the teals threaten other Lib heartland seats after just getting close in 2022?

This was a blip. The issues of this election are gone next time.

 

[BruceFromBalnarring]

They are going to make 2026 with 7 MPs/MLCs who will have notched 20+ years. Two from the Kennett era - the others with one miserable term in office between them.

None of them are especially erudite or holding a hard-to-win seat on account of a personal vote. Most should have been dumped this time around.

Only problem is that they probably have more pentecostals waiting in the wings to replace them.


By contrast, Labor moved on most of it's remaining cohort from the Bracks-era this time: Andrews, Allan and D'Ambrosio are the only ones from pre-06. They have a number of fresh-faced MPs coming in and have consistently turned over their ministry before things get stale.

Translated: Got rid of a few uppity chicks.

 

[sandeano]

I actually heard this described well by someone.

what Kennett built was stuff people occassionaly visit

what Andrews built was stuff that people use every day

I mentioned earlier that I had recently spoken to a relative that had been a long term Labor advisor. They told me that they had done the research and found that almost everybody, across all age groups and voting intentions, loves trains. Young people want to catch them to get around, older people like looking at them and following them around (and putting up pics on Facebook groups and niche webpages). Unlike roads, their surveying told them that rail did not have an ephemeral feel, instead it was concrete and ongoing - and reassuring. Seemingly, you cannot go wrong with a train.

I reckon that if Andrews were to announce the reopening of some of the country lines that Kennett closed he could be on a winner with regional voters (although probably not enough to defeat the Nats/Libs currently snoozing away up there).

 

[CrazyJoeFevola]

I am partial to marxism/anarchism. However, it was not going to be electoral successful in Australia during the cold war.

I’m talking purely industrial success. Cummo went on to lead the merged CFMEU and was Vice President of the CPAML until his sad early death. Last of a kind.

 

[Elmer_Hauser]

**** Neil Mitchell and all the Boomers and Karen's that listen to 3AW..

They got the election result they so richly deserved. Flogs.

 

[CrazyJoeFevola]

I mentioned earlier that I had recently spoken to a relative that had been a long term Labor advisor. They told me that they had done the research and found that almost everybody, across all age groups and voting intentions, lovtrains. Young people want to catch them to get around, older people like looking at them and following them around (and putting up pics on Facebook groups and niche webpages). Unlike roads, their surveying told them that rail did not have an ephemeral feel, instead it was concrete and ongoing - and reassuring. Seemingly, you cannot go wrong with a train.

I reckon that if Andrews were to announce the reopening of some of the country lines that Kennett closed he could be on a winner with regional voters (although probably not enough to defeat the Nats/Libs currently snoozing away up there).

People like cheap, practical services that can get them around, shock horror! SRL will be a game change, decentralising Melbourne. Cheap vline will get people to Melbourne from ballarat, Geelong and Bendigo too. huge

 

[sandeano]

**** Neil Mitchell and all the Boomers and Karen's that listen to 3AW..

They got the election result they so richly deserved. Flogs.

They seem bewildered that Matthew Guy (or Ian Cook) didn't get in. "Neil, I voted to kick Dan out and so did everybody I know. How did this happen?"


Try turning off 3AW for a while, dear.

It's funny that the Liberals used to talk about the "Quiet Australians" - those that (on a federal level) ignored social media and just cast their vote. Turns out that the "Quiet Victorians" are those that ignored 3AW and co, voted and got on with their lives.