2022 Victorian State Election-November 26

[pazza]

I'm stunned the alp may end up not losing any seats.

I was expecting around 10 to fall

The misreading of the electorate by the media in particular, but others as well is the big story coming out of this election.

Whatever swings the Coalition did come up with had no real bearing in the end. No point having massive swings in the West if it gets you still nowhere close to winning any seat on the other side of the Yarra. Labor made the middle class East a target and did damn well by comparison.

The Greens did well...even if they don't pick up any more than a seat or 2. They have made for some interesting races next time around...Preston, Footscray (!)...

The Upper House has turned to a left alliance it would seem, which probably makes it easier for the Government to deliver on its mandate.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

The misreading of the electorate by the media in particular, but others as well is the big story coming out of this election.

Whatever swings the Coalition did come up with had no real bearing in the end. No point having massive swings in the West if it gets you still nowhere close to winning any seat on the other side of the Yarra. Labor made the middle class East a target and did damn well by comparison.

The Greens did well...even if they don't pick up any more than a seat or 2. They have made for some interesting races next time around...Preston, Footscray (!)...

The Upper House has turned to a left alliance it would seem, which probably makes it easier for the Government to deliver on its mandate.

I was hoping for more than the greens - 0.5 is at the lower end of what I was expecting to see.

Jfyi I expected 4-5 alp seats to.fall just due to the receding high tide. Nepean, Hawthorn, ashwood, and box Hill I assumed would all return to the libs (ie back to "situation normal")

Then 5-6 mainly down the se corridor due to covid anger.

Fwiw I don't watch tv and don't read the hun or the age or listen to aw

 

[PJays]

Centerists are like unicorns, they don't exist, much like your objectivity

Centrists absolutely exist.

They are people whose views are close to the centre on most issues.

They are usually swinging voters.

That's me and many others.

 

[Gralin]

Centrists absolutely exist.

They are people whose views are close to the centre on most issues.

They are usually swinging voters.

That's me and many others.

No

 

[PJays]

There’s plenty of business cases

Now look at regional roads and upgrades. They can be around 20c in the dollar. They still do them accessibility

Do regional roads cost $125 billion?

Different types of projects have different expected returns according to the infrastructure authorities. It's not one size fits all.

With SRL the government has not submitted a full business case. Which is odd given they've already commenced preliminary construction.

One economist called it "the worst infrastructure project of all time" and "a disgrace".

The question is whether that money be better spent elsewhere. Or whether it needs to be spent at all.

 

[PJays]

No

Great response

Extremely persuasive

All the centrists now accept that they do not exist. All the political philosophers will now stop using the term.

 

[Gralin]

Great response

Extremely persuasive

Its been discussed on here, there is no center and people like you that day you're in the middle and a swing voter always post one way on issues

 

[Festerz]

FMD:

 

[Crankyhawk]

Do regional roads cost $125 billion?

Different types of projects have different expected returns according to the infrastructure authorities. It's not one size fits all.

With SRL the government has not submitted a full business case. Which is odd given they've already commenced preliminary construction.

One economist called it "the worst infrastructure project of all time" and "a disgrace".

The question is whether that money be better spent elsewhere. Or whether it needs to be spent at all.

“One economist” lol as if that means anything. Economics is a profession where they make up answers to suit theories then use hindsight to say why their prediction was not wrong. It’s why they say put 3 economists together and you will get 6 opinions. Their opinion is no more value than lay person.

 

[Crankyhawk]

Its been discussed on here, there is no center and people like you that day you're in the middle and a swing voter always post one way on issues

No, it’s only accepted amongst some here who tend towards the moderate to hard left that’s there’s no centre. Of course pretty much everyone seems right wing to you.

 

[Gough]

I was hoping for more than the greens - 0.5 is at the lower end of what I was expecting to see.

Jfyi I expected 4-5 alp seats to.fall just due to the receding high tide. Nepean, Hawthorn, ashwood, and box Hill I assumed would all return to the libs (ie back to "situation normal")

Then 5-6 mainly down the se corridor due to covid anger.

Fwiw I don't watch tv and don't read the hun or the age or listen to aw

With hindsight it feels like the anti Dan cooker faction along with parts of the media and the Liberal Party spent the last week of the campaign sniffing each other's farts.

 

[Pakenhamsaint]

With hindsight it feels like the anti Dan cooker faction along with parts of the media and the Liberal Party spent the last week of the campaign sniffing each other's farts.

They were so fixated on removing Dan they lost any sense of reality

 

[PJays]

Its been discussed on here, there is no center and people like you that day you're in the middle and a swing voter always post one way on issues

I'm one way on social issues like gender, or 18C and free speech. Or religious discrimination.

But those are maybe 20% of the relevant issues in any election.

I won't vote for a government who I agree with on issues like that, if I think they're doing an overall poor job (like Morrison's Liberals this year).

On the other hand I will vote for a party who doesn't align with my social views (to an extent) if they have a solid overall platform and agenda and I believe they can take the country where it needs to go (eg Albanese Labor or Rudd Labor).

In fact I hold left views on several issues, where I'm closer to the Greens than Liberal or Labor. One current example is Stage 3 tax cuts, which Labor is keeping but I think they should ditch.

Most people are set in their ways.

One of my best mates always votes Green because he's an environmentalist and doesn't care for politics. Climate change and environment are his first, second and third issues with daylight fourth.

Another good mate votes Labor, but occasionally Green in his safe Labor seat to send a message that Labor's drifting too far into the middle.

Another good mate votes right wing minor parties.

Most people are like my mates and always voting left. Or right.

But the thing is, my mates don't decide elections.

Those of us who approach voting with a genuinely open mind, those of us who swing, we are the ones who decide elections. Or more accurately, those of us living in marginal seats.

What disappoints me about Victoria is that the middle suburbs, and the swinging voters, are overwhelmingly voting Andrews Labor.

Although after reflecting I think I understand why and how they've won.

 

[PJays]

“One economist” lol as if that means anything. Economics is a profession where they make up answers to suit theories then use hindsight to say why their prediction was not wrong. It’s why they say put 3 economists together and you will get 6 opinions. Their opinion is no more value than lay person.

Economists have proven to be pretty useless at broad predictions like house prices or the global economy

But with something narrower like the cost of a major project they deserve our attention.

 

[Dave]

Don't think you need to be throwing around sterotypes about boomers and millenials, specially seeing as it's mostly Gen X now that is pulling that s**t. Plus the correlation seems more to do with conservative (regressive really) social politics rather than generation.

We're pulling what now?

 

[Gough]

We're pulling what now?

Whatever it was we probably forgot to do it or did a half arsed job. Scott Morrison really lived up to every Gen X stereotype you could name.

 

[Stan_Darsh72]

What disappoints me about Victoria is that the middle suburbs, and the swinging voters, are overwhelmingly voting Andrews Labor.

You are aware the electorate is majority millenial

Start thinking of this election with that in mind

 

[CrazyJoeFevola]

Nothing wrong with having a nose ring and blue hair. I find that attractive, maybe because I know they'll be leftists too. But if I found they're Socialist Alternative, I run a mile.

I've spent my entire adult life on the organised far left, 13 years. If they're rocking that look they are likely a loonie Salt or not lol

 

[Gralin]

I'm one way on social issues like gender, or 18C and free speech. Or religious discrimination.

But those are maybe 20% of the relevant issues in any election.

I won't vote for a government who I agree with on issues like that, if I think they're doing an overall poor job (like Morrison's Liberals this year).

On the other hand I will vote for a party who doesn't align with my social views (to an extent) if they have a solid overall platform and agenda and I believe they can take the country where it needs to go (eg Albanese Labor or Rudd Labor).

In fact I hold left views on several issues, where I'm closer to the Greens than Liberal or Labor. One current example is Stage 3 tax cuts, which Labor is keeping but I think they should ditch.

Most people are set in their ways.

One of my best mates always votes Green because he's an environmentalist and doesn't care for politics. Climate change and environment are his first, second and third issues with daylight fourth.

Another good mate votes Labor, but occasionally Green in his safe Labor seat to send a message that Labor's drifting too far into the middle.

Another good mate votes right wing minor parties.

Most people are like my mates and always voting left. Or right.

But the thing is, my mates don't decide elections.

Those of us who approach voting with a genuinely open mind, those of us who swing, we are the ones who decide elections. Or more accurately, those of us living in marginal seats.

What disappoints me about Victoria is that the middle suburbs, and the swinging voters, are overwhelmingly voting Andrews Labor.

Although after reflecting I think I understand why and how they've won.

So you're a religious racist bigot but because you're against tax cuts for the rich you think that makes you a centerist and therefore the person who decides elections.

I do love how people that don't always vote the same way think only their vote counts

 

[Gralin]

You are aware the electorate is majority millenial

Start thinking of this election with that in mind

Yeah I don't believe that's true

 

[PJays]

So you're a religious racist bigot

Lol

Oh dear. We've hit peak stupidity with comments like this

but because you're against tax cuts for the rich you think that makes you a centerist and therefore the person who decides elections.

There's other issues where my view is more closely aligned with the Greens. Not just personal income tax rates. You're a laugh a minute!

I do love how people that don't always vote the same way think only their vote counts

Every vote counts.

But not every vote decides elections. Elections are won and lost in the mainstream, by the party who appeals to the middle and the swinging voters in the important suburbs.

Look at Broadmeadows, Mill Park, Thomastown, St Albans etc. Labor seats forever. Liberal got 10-15% swings. Didn't help them win government did it?

It wouldn't matter if Labor's leader was Donald Duck, Labor would win those seats.

Labor did lose some upper house seats in those areas, so things might be more difficult getting their agenda through, depending on what the Cannabis crew do. But government is formed in the lower house.

 

[Crankyhawk]

Lol

Oh dear. We've hit peak stupidity with comments like this


There's other issues where my view is more closely aligned with the Greens. Not just personal income tax rates. You're a laugh a minute!


Every vote counts.

But not every vote decides elections. Elections are won and lost in the mainstream, by the party who appeals to the middle and the swinging voters in the important suburbs.

Look at Broadmeadows, Mill Park, Thomastown, St Albans etc. Labor seats forever. Liberal got 10-15% swings. Didn't help them win government did it?

It wouldn't matter if Labor's leader was Donald Duck, Labor would win those seats.

Labor did lose some upper house seats in those areas, so things might be more difficult getting their agenda through, depending on what the Cannabis crew do. But government is formed in the lower house.

Though those big swings might put them in a position to win them (the north/west) next time - if they can find something that resonates with those groups/ areas ...

 

[PJays]

Nobody who is centrists would spend any time debating against trans rights.

I suppose JK Rowling and Bill Maher are raging right wingers?

 

[Fire]

Ok the details of this election is an unmitigated disaster for the liberals.

On the surface, they look like they will more or less hold their ground from the last election. But looking a bit deeper, the front has fallen off.

For labour to have massive swings against them in their heartland, but maintain a 55/56 TPP, should scare the shit out of the liberals. It means that an equal number of voters in fringe or hostile seats have flocked to them. Next election, the labour heartland will flock back, especially if Andrews steps aside. However, I see nothing to encourage the lost liberal voters to do the same.

If this was a 'normal' election, and there was no extraordinary protest vote factor, this would have been a TPP of 60%. This is the Liberals effective starting point.

 

[Ice-Wolf]

Whatever it was we probably forgot to do it or did a half arsed job. Scott Morrison really lived up to every Gen X stereotype you could name.

They are doing a half arsed job thats why it's all falling off the cliff and the Coalition are doing so shithouse at reflecting the electorate.

Just look at all the Gen X Nationals and Liberals in power that are stuck thinking "No, we're not right enough!" like Canavan, Dutton etc and their media darlings like Rita Panahi. Matthew Guy and his team couldn't have been more Gen X. **** they even thought marketing him as "Matt" Guy would be enough.

Gen X too lazy to put the Boomers out to pasture and too lazy to do the job properly once the Boomers have retired. Millenials will have to work hard to clean up the mess those 2 generations left and they'll have Gen Y bitching at them for not doing it quickly/perfectly enough the whole time.