2022 Victorian State Election-November 26

Who will win the Victorian election

  • Labor

    Votes: 128 87.1%
  • Coalition

    Votes: 19 12.9%

  • Total voters
    147
  • Poll closed .

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I don’t get what the joke is? Is it that they are all like him? Or that he dominates everything?

Mark Knight used to be impartial. One controversial cartoon of Serena and he decided to go the Mark Latham route. Sad
A desperate Look Over There in light of Morrison’s multiple ministries?
 
The ABC has called Pakenham for Labor.

View attachment 1569624

This is my neck of the woods and I am genuinely surprised. There appeared to be a lot of anti-Dan sentiment out here but, once again, just because the voices are loud, does not mean they are the majority.
Difference of only 300 votes.
 

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The ABC has called Pakenham for Labor.

View attachment 1569624

This is my neck of the woods and I am genuinely surprised. There appeared to be a lot of anti-Dan sentiment out here but, once again, just because the voices are loud, does not mean they are the majority.
Something deserving investigation is why outer Eastern suburbs didn't see similar swings as outer North and Western suburbs

Places like Sydenham, Broady, Greenvale, Mill Park, Thomastown, Yan Yean and St Albans saw 8-15% swings against Labor

Yet suburbs that I assume have similar demographics, not identical but similar, didn't see equivalent swings. Cranbourne, Pakenham, Dandenong, Narre Warren etc.
 
The ABC has called Pakenham for Labor.

View attachment 1569624

This is my neck of the woods and I am genuinely surprised. There appeared to be a lot of anti-Dan sentiment out here but, once again, just because the voices are loud, does not mean they are the majority.
On track for 56 seats then? That would be a better result than the Danslide.
 

Something deserving investigation is why outer Eastern suburbs didn't see similar swings as outer North and Western suburbs

Places like Sydenham, Broady, Greenvale, Mill Park, Thomastown, Yan Yean and St Albans saw 8-15% swings against Labor

Yet suburbs that I assume have similar demographics, not identical but similar, didn't see equivalent swings. Cranbourne, Pakenham, Dandenong, Narre Warren etc.

Not sure of the racial demographics of those areas in the North and NW, but the SE have a LOT of Indians & Sri Lankans who, apparently, were well in favour of the lockdown measures. Maybe that made a difference, I don't know.
 


Happy Antonio Banderas GIF
 
Something deserving investigation is why outer Eastern suburbs didn't see similar swings as outer North and Western suburbs

Places like Sydenham, Broady, Greenvale, Mill Park, Thomastown, Yan Yean and St Albans saw 8-15% swings against Labor

Yet suburbs that I assume have similar demographics, not identical but similar, didn't see equivalent swings. Cranbourne, Pakenham, Dandenong, Narre Warren etc.
Access and provision of services.

The pandemic slowed down public works builds, and this hit the North/West.

Likewise, the pandemic hit hardest in the West, so there will be greater negative sentiment within those communities.
 
Apropos of nothing, as an alternative to some of the ugly goings-on at various booths, I would like to relate this story.

I live in Pakky but work in Eltham. A few days before the election I had to pop into Eltham Bunnings for something. I decided to use the front carkpark rather than the underground one in order to save time, but as I approached I could see there were no spaces left. I was not aware that over the road there was pre-poll voting going on, which accounted for the carpark being full. I missed the turnoff for the underground so parked at the Maccas and walked down (about 100m). As I was approaching the pedestrian lights to cross the road the heavens opened and I was left standing there, like a drowned rat, for lights that seemed to take forever to change.

The next thing I know a woman appears beside me holding an umbrella over me. I recognised her from placards around the suburb - it was Vicki Ward, the Labor candidate for Eltham. I thanked her and wished her well. I tried to explain that, although a Labor voter I was from a different area but she cut me off. "Let's not worry about politics, let's just keep you dry". The lights changed and, with the rain still tumbling, she walked me over to the Bunnings entrance.

Yeah, okay, she wasn't waiting for me when I left and the rain was continuing, but still....
 
According to my rough calcs the other day...

there are about 45 seats within 30km of Melbourne.

13 that are within 10km and 30-35 between 10-30km- the middle ring.

Liberal won 8 of ~45.

4 inner seats of 13, and 4 middle ring seats from 30-35

They've become the party of the super rich and the rural.
 
According to my rough calcs the other day...

there are about 45 seats within 30km of Melbourne.

13 that are within 10km and 30-35 between 10-30km- the middle ring.

Liberal won 8 of ~45.

4 inner seats of 13, and 4 middle ring seats from 30-35

They've become the party of the super rich and the rural.
Similar to the Republicans, but Australia has mandatory voting, so voter suppression tactics are less likely to be successful and non-political/partially independent process for seat redistributions, so you can't gerrymander your way to victory very easily either.

Thus if they continue to take their marching orders from figures behind the rightwing US machine, it is plausible of sinking into permanent opposition in at least some states.
 

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Who knew the Coalition hasn't won a federal election in Victoria since 1996?!

This means Labor has won 15 of the past 16 elections in Victoria

Any Victorian 43 or younger has only voted in a maximum of 1 election that the Coalition won in Victoria
 
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Just out of morbid curiosity, what is the Andrews Government not doing that they could be doing that would be described as "firmly left-wing"?

There haven't been many governments in Australia to the left of where Andrews is now, and the only one in Victorian post-war history that would come close would be the Cain/Kirner governments (who also had the dubious honour of caring about transparency and integrity, unlike the current government).

And perhaps I just don't agree with you. It's a problem for many around here, being so used to this being a safe space for fellow travellers to harmlessly compete on how much they can agree with each other.

That and being selectively quoted by the boss.
Andrews still privatises state assets, they let companies propose works to them, he funds cops like a right wing US state, though you can definitely get left wing authoritarianism.
He's certainly not actually a lefty on climate change when he's outlawing peaceful protest and approving more gas projects.
He likes the progressive moniker and he does do more social welfare than most but it's reputation winning more than real work most of the time when you get to the neoliberal fine print.
 
The ABC has called Pakenham for Labor.

View attachment 1569624

This is my neck of the woods and I am genuinely surprised. There appeared to be a lot of anti-Dan sentiment out here but, once again, just because the voices are loud, does not mean they are the majority.

Must admit I'm surprised if it stays this way, as a Pakenham local a couple of things I look forward to ....

The local crime theft and racism page melting down (LOL), and even better
Monica Smit streaming more hostage type videos from the car on Main St :p
 
Must admit I'm surprised if it stays this way, as a Pakenham local a couple of things I look forward to ....

The local crime theft and racism page melting down (LOL), and even better
Monica Smit streaming more hostage type videos from the car on Main St :p
Community Facebook pages should be declared proscribed organisations.

More hate speech than a Freedom Party telegram chat.
 
I personally know a paramedic, a nurse unit manager, and a regular nurse who all refused to get vaccinated and have been unemployed since the mandates.

Actually, one of them got a 4 month exemption when they got covid. Unemployed again since that period expired.


I don't.

My feeling is, most people, having realized Omicron isn't catastrophic for most people, think covid should be treated like the flu. There's no mandate for flu vaccines.

In fact only 24% of Victorians have had their 4th covid vaccine. Most haven't kept up with a vaccine every 6 months. Why would people expect every single nurse to be vaxxed? People would rather a full health workforce.

People now realise the vaccines have only a minimal/moderate effect on stopping you catching and transmitting the virus, with the super infectious Omicron and Omicron sub strains.


Anti vax is not the same as anti mandate.

All other jobs no longer have mandates- why only health workers in the middle of a health crisis?



Subsquent expert analysis has agreed with many of the Libs complaints. Read "Fault Lines" report by Ramsay Foundation and others


They didn't.


Labor's more corrupt than Liberal in Victoria. At best stories about Guy just make people ignore corruption because they figure it'll be corruption either way.


Is that why it was canned by the Federal government and most other states in Australia?


Only if you have something more useful to add than your previous few comments....


This is a bit of an overstatement.

The Coalition's vote is only 2.6% behind Labor. (34.4% vs 37.0%).
You mentioned the flu, omricon is like the flu you said ….Well Flu vaccines have been mandatory for years, for health care workers.
 
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Even after 3% 2PP swing, the pendulum for next time is still dire for the Liberals.

Even if they knock things down further to 51-49 or 50-50 2PP in 2026, there aren't many seats that would be certainties to fall - and most of those under 5% margin will get an extra ALP boost from new/loss of incumbents so could hold.

Of all the big swings they got in N/W Melbourne this time, Melton is still the most likely. Yan Yean (will get a boost from new MP) and maybe Sunbury if they do really well.

To take Labor into minority, even with a significant cohort of Greens, they probably need to push things toward 48-52 2PP where seats start to fall en-masse.
1670530510905.png
 
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Even after 3% 2PP swing, the pendulum for next time is still dire for the Liberals.

Even if they knock things down further to 51-49 or 50-50 2PP in 2026, there aren't many seats that would be certainties to fall - and most of those under 5% margin will get an extra ALP boost from new/loss of incumbents so could hold.

Of all the big swings they got in N/W Melbourne this time, Melton is still the only left on a margin seems possible. Maybe Sunbury if they do really well.

To take Labor into minority, even with a significant cohort of Greens, they probably need to push things toward 48-52 2PP where seats start to fall en-masse.
View attachment 1569857
Their leader if he lasts could easily be given the fryzo treatment.
Here in hawthorn/Kooyong we are loving that our votes can actually count these days
 
Their leader if he lasts could easily be given the fryzo treatment.
Here in hawthorn/Kooyong we are loving that our votes can actually count these days

If ALP had put up a decent candidate and made even a token effort in the seat it probably would have held.

They finished ahead of the Teal as it is.
 
Honestly, if Labor pick up Pakenham after preferences are sorted and therefore finish with a total of 56 seats, the Liberals performance may represent one of the most devastating loss in modern Australian political history.

Just unabashedly awful.
I think the Qld Libs went down to four members and had to merge with the Nats to avoid deregistration.
 
Apropos of nothing, as an alternative to some of the ugly goings-on at various booths, I would like to relate this story.

I live in Pakky but work in Eltham. A few days before the election I had to pop into Eltham Bunnings for something. I decided to use the front carkpark rather than the underground one in order to save time, but as I approached I could see there were no spaces left. I was not aware that over the road there was pre-poll voting going on, which accounted for the carpark being full. I missed the turnoff for the underground so parked at the Maccas and walked down (about 100m). As I was approaching the pedestrian lights to cross the road the heavens opened and I was left standing there, like a drowned rat, for lights that seemed to take forever to change.

The next thing I know a woman appears beside me holding an umbrella over me. I recognised her from placards around the suburb - it was Vicki Ward, the Labor candidate for Eltham. I thanked her and wished her well. I tried to explain that, although a Labor voter I was from a different area but she cut me off. "Let's not worry about politics, let's just keep you dry". The lights changed and, with the rain still tumbling, she walked me over to the Bunnings entrance.

Yeah, okay, she wasn't waiting for me when I left and the rain was continuing, but still....
My brother ( Labor member) has met Peter dutton a few times and reckons he is a really decent man who would give you the shirt off his back.....

What is your point?
 

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2022 Victorian State Election-November 26

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