Resource 2023 AFL Draft Discussion...

[Bearded Clam]

I think to trade up with GWS to get COS we are not trading 2 x 2023 first, but instead 10 and a f2

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Yep..

A trade involving both 10 and 14 to move up just to get a KPD in O’Sullivan would be completely fxxkn stupid.. especially given its possible he slides to our first pick..

Adelaide crows..

 

[BRL121]

I think to trade up with GWS to get COS we are not trading 2 x 2023 first, but instead 10 and a f2

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We've already offered the latter. There's no way the former would be offered.

 

[Sir Ronald Mac]

I’m not doing that

What if Hamish rates CURTIN in the top 3 of this draft?
You would definitely sacrifice 10 and a F1st for him.

 

[Chase13]

What if Hamish rates CURTIN in the top 3 of this draft?
You would definitely sacrifice 10 and a F1st for him.

Hope he does going to be a gun

 

[BRL121]

What if Hamish rates CURTIN in the top 3 of this draft?
You would definitely sacrifice 10 and a F1st for him.

Are you Hamish?

 

[dogs105]

10 + F1st for 7 + F2nd is what GWS want apparently.

Vomit

 

[LoBu]

Yep..

A trade involving both 10 and 14 to move up just to get a KPD in O’Sullivan would be completely fxxkn stupid.. especially given its possible he slides to our first pick..

Adelaide crows..
View attachment 1856316

I think zero hanger are confused, trading up for Curtin is different to COS

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[I Lost My Keays]

I reckon we will go COS, Wilson and Goad

 

[Redline]

Not sure how he is now but in the past Clarko has been known for standing over the recruitment team and demanding player x over player y etc. I'd think Rawlings wouldn't crumble to that however.

I think the issue with this from a club point of view is Clarko only really knows the player.

I am sure everyone at the Kangaroo's rates Curtain but there is a lot more to it from a list point of view than rating a player.

 

[Chase13]

I reckon we will go COS, Wilson and Goad

Me cos ( hoping gone by our pick And don’t trade up )

we take Wilson c Edwards ( Going to be a gun ) goad

but would go all in for Curtin if slides

 

[Golumless]

Are we sure we will go for Goad? A lot of media speculation, but just feels very unlike us. I wonder if it's just because he's from SA and expected to be selected around our pick?
Not sure we value rucks enough to use a pick like 20 on one.

Quite likely just SA and us. That said, it's also not out of the question - probably dictated by our long term plans for Thilthorpe more so than anything.

After all, we've certainly treated the last couple of years like we've already had our long term ruckman on our list with a baffling extension to Strachan - that's not to say he's a bad backup, but a team deep in a rebuild offering a 26-27 year old backup a two year deal seems off - alongside the lack of young ruckmen drafted with speculative picks and Thilthorpes forward usage being, well, odd.

 

[George Kramer]

What if Hamish rates CURTIN in the top 3 of this draft?
You would definitely sacrifice 10 and a F1st for him.

I’d ask where he rates him in next years draft

 

[Big Dub]

OK, thought I’d run some more numbers to answer the age-old questions:

• Should we avoid tall defenders in the first round
• Do Adelaide under-perform for first round picks
• Do Adelaide overperform after the first round

I’ve excluded the 2020 to 2022 drafts, as these players haven’t had the chance to prove themselves yet. You could argue the same for the 2018 and 2019 drafts, but that would exclude McAsey, which is obviously one of the key data points. I’ve gone back to the 1999 draft, which hopefully balances the enough data v lack of recency error risks.

Ratings broadly follow AFL ratings, but they don’t have Super Elite:
Super Elite – 3% of draftees (4% excluding players who never played) – Multi All Australians/ Brownlow medallists CA MVPs
Elite – 4% (5%) – All Australian
Above Average – 15% (20%) - AA40, Club B&Fs, Norm Smith, 100+ games, Double digit Brownlow votes,
Average – 28% (37%) – Everyone not included in the other ratings
Below Average – 26% (34%) – less than 30 games AND no Brownlow votes
Poor – 25% - didn’t play a game

Ratings for all draftees look like this:


Whereas talls (193cm to 199cm) look like this:


So, you are more likely to get a Super Elite player with a tall, but also more likely to get a fail (Below Average or Poor). Picks 11 to 20 look the real sweet spot for talls, particularly 11-15 (with 16 to 20 pick talls producing more Super Elite players but also equally more fails).

How does Adelaide do?

General drafting:


So, the narrative holds for general picks. We are 0.7 of an Elite/ Above Average player down on expectations in the first round (ie McAsey), but way up in later rounds. But less than one player out maybe isn’t as pronounced as we have believed, particularly where we are 1.7 less fails than expected from first round picks.

For talls:


It looks like we are far better at drafting talls in the first round v expectations than other types of players. Of the 3 top talls drafted, all were defenders (Talia, Lever and Davis).

Summary
We reached for McAsey instead of taking the best available player, which has cost us above expectations outcomes in the first round. But, other than this error, we draft well generally and particularly for talls in the first round.

 

[baldandbroke]

Ok - Dream result for me - based on my extensive review of multiple 4-minute highlight videos and comments by BF luminaries ....

Watson
Goad
Moir

1% chance of fruition.

Will be interested to see what who we target with our first move up the board - if any!

 

[latinoheat]

Ok - Dream result for me - based on my extensive review of multiple 4-minute highlight videos and comments by BF luminaries ....

Watson
Goad
Moir

1% chance of fruition.

Will be interested to see what who we target with our first move up the boar - if any!

That’s a terrible result IMO

 

[crows dude]

Ok - Dream result for me - based on my extensive review of multiple 4-minute highlight videos and comments by BF luminaries ....

Watson
Goad
Moir

1% chance of fruition.

Will be interested to see what who we target with our first move up the boar - if any!

Small forward with our first pick again. Please no.

 

[El Doederino]

What’s the knock on O’Sullivan?

Early talk sounded like he’d be a perfect pick for us but likely taken before we draft.

Now we’re getting him without any maneuvering?

 

[Trigger13]

Give me Watson over COS, Wilson, Leake. There’s a reason he’s going so high. He’s a game breaking small forward. Would basically make us so dangerous inside 50 that we’ll be almost impossible to stop. Happy to trade up to get him if he slides to 7.

 

[BigBoSS_Riot]

What’s the knock on O’Sullivan?

Early talk sounded like he’d be a perfect pick for us but likely taken before we draft.

Now we’re getting him without any maneuvering?

I don't think there's necessarily a knock on him. He was projected around 8-10, now Twomey has him at 12. It's only really because of Windsor and Leake bolting (and the apparent interest Melbourne and GWS respectively have in them).

The bigger sliders are Curtin and Wilson - I'm feeling more and more confident that I was right about Curtin being a flight risk, but I've got no idea what's going on with Wilson.

 

[Crow till I die]

What’s the knock on O’Sullivan?

Early talk sounded like he’d be a perfect pick for us but likely taken before we draft.

Now we’re getting him without any maneuvering?

Maybe its the other way.. the strength of this draft at the top end is strong and a few players have also risen meaning a deeper poll at the top end

 

[Crow till I die]

Give me Watson over COS, Wilson, Leake. There’s a reason he’s going so high. He’s a game breaking small forward. Would basically make us so dangerous inside 50 that we’ll be almost impossible to stop. Happy to trade up to get him if he slides to 7.

Also, structurally he frees up pedlar, rankine and rachele to spend more time in the midfield..win win in my book

 

[Mostyn]

I don't think there's necessarily a knock on him. He was projected around 8-10, now Twomey has him at 12. It's only really because of Windsor and Leake bolting (and the apparent interest Melbourne and GWS respectively have in them).

The bigger sliders are Curtin and Wilson - I'm feeling more and more confident that I was right about Curtin being a flight risk, but I've got no idea what's going on with Wilson.

Can you point me towards any coverage of Curtin being a flight risk or anyone suggesting that is impacting his draft position or bothering recruiters?

 

[Mostyn]

I've always loved the idea of getting Watson.

He and Rankine start in the forward line, Pedlar and Rachele straight into midfield rotations.

 

[BigBoSS_Riot]

Can you point me towards any coverage of Curtin being a flight risk or anyone suggesting that is impacting his draft position or bothering recruiters?

We've been over this so many times...

Why do you think he's dropped from "top 2 in the draft" to "5th or 6th with Watson" to "GWS could trade 7 (effectively 9) to West Coast so they can have Curtin" to now, where we have "Geelong will take Curtin at 10"? Do you think all these teams have discovered a knock on his game all of a sudden?

 

[BigBoSS_Riot]

Dropped where, nobody other than the club recruiters/list managers know what strategy they're taking into draft night.. Media talk is just that.

And that is very clearly what my perspective is based on.

I'm still of the opinion that Clarkson will get his way and North will take him at 4 (as I have been from the start). But if they don't, and he does actually fall to GWS or Geelong's pick, then my belief is that the clubs that passed on him believed he was too big of a flight risk.