Game Day 2023 AFL DRAFT

[PoholkMe10]

Alright, so i've analysed our "inside the draft night" video and have pieced together all our scenarios from the blurred white board.

We had 2 scenarios; the first was hold pick 10 and the second was trade up to 7.

Scenario 1: Hold pick 10

First Preference:
10. Wilson
14. Edwards
20. Goad

Second Preference:
10. Wilson
14. Edwards
20. Ryan

Third Preference
10. Wilson
14. Goad
20. Ryan

Scenario 2: Trade up

First preference:
7. Curtin
16. Wilson
20. Goad

Second preference:
7. Curtin
16. Edwards
20. Goad

Third preference:
7. Curtin
16. Edwards
20. Ryan

Fourth preference:
7. Curtin
16. Goad
20. Ryan

So essentially;

• Our ideal draft was Curtin, Wilson and Goad (we didn't see Edwards getting to our 3rd pick)
• Wilson was our guy if we stayed at 10, were never taking O'Sullivan
• We were taking Edwards over Goad, north didn't ruin our plans
• Ryan was always our next guy once Goad was gone.

Video:

 

[Scorpus]

Alright, so i've analysed our "inside the draft night" video and have pieced together all our scenarios from the blurred white board.

We had 2 scenarios; the first was hold pick 10 and the second trade up to 7.

Scenario 1: Hold pick 10

First Preference:
10. Wilson
14. Edwards
20. Goad

Second Preference:
10. Wilson
14. Edwards
20. Ryan

Third Preference
10. Wilson
14. Goad
20. Ryan

Scenario 2: Trade up

First preference:
8. Curtin
16. Wilson
20. Goad

Second preference:
8. Curtin
16. Edwards
20. Goad

Third preference:
8. Curtin
16. Edwards
20. Ryan

Fourth preference:
8. Curtin
16. Goad
20. Ryan

So essentially;

• Our ideal draft was Curtin, Wilson and Goad (we didn't see Edwards getting to our 3rd pick)
• Wilson was our guy if we stayed at 10, were never taking O'Sullivan
• We were taking Edwards over Goad, north didn't ruin our plans
• Ryan was always our next guy once Goad was gone.

Video:

Excellent work, I noticed you could partially read the names despite the blur (they didn't do a great job of the blur)

So it looks like our talent order was (and maybe this factored in players that weren't going to reach various picks)

1. Curtin
2. Wilson
3. Edwards
4. Goad
5. Ryan

At pick 20 (27) none of our top 4 options would have lasted to that point so we were always going to end up taking Ryan there.

Had we held our picks we would have taken Wilson, Edwards and Ryan. Wilson would not have lasted until pick 14 as that was one pick after St Kilda, who took Wilson. St Kilda ended up trading 1 pick back with GWS (13 back to 14; or 17 to 18 after bids), and GWS only had that pick (18) because of the trade with us.

The only way we would have gotten Curtin and Wilson is if we didn't swap 14 to 16 with GWS and traded up ahead of St Kilda. So getting Curtin meant sacrificing Wilson and getting Edwards instead.

Basically the most realistic options were Wilson/Edwards/Ryan or Curtin/Edwards/Ryan based on how other clubs drafted.

So in trading with GWS it didn't affect the final outcome much. We basically spent 10 and a future 2nd to get Curtin

 

[Crow till I die]

Excellent work, I noticed you could partially read the names despite the blur (they didn't do a great job of the blur)

So it looks like our talent order was (and maybe this factored in players that weren't going to reach various picks)

1. Curtin
2. Wilson
3. Edwards
4. Goad
5. Ryan

At pick 20 (27) none of our top 4 options would have lasted to that point so we were always going to end up taking Ryan there.

Had we held our picks we would have taken Wilson, Edwards and Ryan. Wilson would not have lasted until pick 14 as that was one pick after St Kilda, who took Wilson. St Kilda ended up trading 1 pick back with GWS (13 back to 14; or 17 to 18 after bids), and GWS only had that pick (18) because of the trade with us.

The only way we would have gotten Curtin and Wilson is if we didn't swap 14 to 16 with GWS and traded up ahead of St Kilda. So getting Curtin meant sacrificing Wilson and getting Edwards instead.

Basically the most realistic options were Wilson/Edwards/Ryan or Curtin/Edwards/Ryan based on how other clubs drafted.

So in trading with GWS it didn't affect the final outcome much. We basically spent 10 and a future 2nd to get Curtin

That looks spot on.

Also, it would seem that lady luck smiled on us with Curtin who was rated higher but with other clubs wedded to particular players he was a late slider and got to a pick that was attainable by us.

I'd rather Curtin and any combination of the other players than to miss Curtin - he is the diamond for our list.

 

[Danger in Texas]

That looks spot on.

Also, it would seem that lady luck smiled on us with Curtin who was rated higher but with other clubs wedded to particular players he was a late slider and got to a pick that was attainable by us.

I'd rather Curtin and any combination of the other players than to miss Curtin - he is the diamond for our list.

Yep, I had Wilson 5th in my rankings so it would’ve been unlikely that I’d rate anyone we took higher than him, for us - but I had Curtin 4th

Glad to see it would’ve been one or the other for us

It’s funny how clubs seem so wedded to particular players, come draft night - either Curtin or Wilson for us, Bombers were Caddy or bust, Giants had a list of three players they would’ve been happy to take with their two picks. Must mean that the clubs must get decent intel well in advance on who will be available for them

 

[Scorpus]

Yep, I had Wilson 5th in my rankings so it would’ve been unlikely that I’d rate anyone we took higher than him, for us - but I had Curtin 4th

Glad to see it would’ve been one or the other for us

It’s funny how clubs seem so wedded to particular players, come draft night - either Curtin or Wilson for us, Bombers were Caddy or bust, Giants had a list of three players they would’ve been happy to take with their two picks. Must mean that the clubs must get decent intel well in advance on who will be available for them

The GWS video was talking a lot about players that are what "we are looking for" which makes me think some of these clubs do end up effectively narrowing it down to needs in the end. Possibly more certain traits than needs, and then ranking players with those traits higher

 

[PeterSalt]

Yep, I had Wilson 5th in my rankings so it would’ve been unlikely that I’d rate anyone we took higher than him, for us - but I had Curtin 4th

Glad to see it would’ve been one or the other for us

It’s funny how clubs seem so wedded to particular players, come draft night - either Curtin or Wilson for us, Bombers were Caddy or bust, Giants had a list of three players they would’ve been happy to take with their two picks. Must mean that the clubs must get decent intel well in advance on who will be available for them

Someone posted the draft day video from Essendon

They seemed to think we were going to take Leake or O'Sullivan and were clearly disappointed we took Curtin

They still seemed happy with Caddy though

 

[Danger in Texas]

Someone posted the draft day video from Essendon

They seemed to think we were going to take Leake or O'Sullivan and were clearly disappointed we took Curtin

They still seemed happy with Caddy though

I think they wanted us to take those guys as they knew Geelong were keen on Curtin first, then Caddy

Given Curtin got taken by us, they were pissed, as they wanted Caddy but knew the Cats would take him. Hence the effort to trade up

 

[MRB37]

I think they wanted us to take those guys as they knew Geelong were keen on Curtin first, then Caddy

Given Curtin got taken by us, they were pissed, as they wanted Caddy but knew the Cats would take him. Hence the effort to trade up

But they traded with Geelong to move up, so the Cats were happy enough not to pick Caddy. Basically Essendon paid pick 31 just to remove the 50/50 doubt on whether Geelong would take Caddy or O'Sullivan.

 

[dplggr47]

Look at DODO's reaction when they called out the crows picked Curtin...priceless

I don't think Geelong were picking Caddy, otherwise they wouldn't have been so quick to trade with Essendon. Essendon lost themselves a pick in the 30s.

 

[Crow till I die]

I don't think Geelong were picking Caddy, otherwise they wouldn't have been so quick to trade with Essendon. Essendon lost themselves a pick in the 30s.

True, but I think they also would not have made known to Essendon who they were picking, so other than whispers, Essendon would have been sweating on it if they didn't do that trade.

I'll put Kirky's cleanskin collection on it that if Curtin and Caddy were on the board for the dons pick - they were taking Curtin over Caddy

 

[dplggr47]

Alright, so i've analysed our "inside the draft night" video and have pieced together all our scenarios from the blurred white board.

We had 2 scenarios; the first was hold pick 10 and the second was trade up to 7.

Scenario 1: Hold pick 10

First Preference:
10. Wilson
14. Edwards
20. Goad

Second Preference:
10. Wilson
14. Edwards
20. Ryan

Third Preference
10. Wilson
14. Goad
20. Ryan

Scenario 2: Trade up

First preference:
7. Curtin
16. Wilson
20. Goad

Second preference:
7. Curtin
16. Edwards
20. Goad

Third preference:
7. Curtin
16. Edwards
20. Ryan

Fourth preference:
7. Curtin
16. Goad
20. Ryan

So essentially;

• Our ideal draft was Curtin, Wilson and Goad (we didn't see Edwards getting to our 3rd pick)
• Wilson was our guy if we stayed at 10, were never taking O'Sullivan
• We were taking Edwards over Goad, north didn't ruin our plans
• Ryan was always our next guy once Goad was gone.

Video:

With Edwards rated higher than Goad, there was no scenario for us to land Goad, especially with North having so many picks around the early 20s.

 

[PoholkMe10]

With Edwards rated higher than Goad, there was no scenario for us to land Goad, especially with North having so many picks around the early 20s.

Yep with how the other picks ended up falling the only scenarios that could have eventuated were Wilson, Edwards, Ryan or Curtin, Edwards, Ryan. Think everyone would take Curtin over Wilson as of now, but will be interesting to check back in 10 years!

 

[feenix67]

Yep with how the other picks ended up falling the only scenarios that could have eventuated were Wilson, Edwards, Ryan or Curtin, Edwards, Ryan. Think everyone would take Curtin over Wilson as of now, but will be interesting to check back in 10 years!

I actually need a new washing machine, but when I saw that shiny new TV at a discount, even though I have a perfectly decent TV, I couldn't resist.

We will look back on these past few years and, while lamenting we couldn't quite get it done in this window, we will realise it was our lack of prioritising drafting quality mids that cost us.

 

[Crow till I die]

I actually need a new washing machine, but when I saw that shiny new TV at a discount, even though I have a perfectly decent TV, I couldn't resist.

We will look back on these past few years and, while lamenting we couldn't quite get it done in this window, we will realise it was our lack of prioritising drafting quality mids that cost us.

Other years yes, this year - no chance. Edwards has the profile to be a quality mid if he can reach his potential but Curtin might cut his teeth down back for a bit but he will move into midfield and will literally be a massive presence in there..I suspect we will look back on this draft and think we aced it.

Curtin on talent was an absolute steal and unless he bails on us early, we are in for a treat. Edwards could be good - maybe very good. Ryan might be exactly what it says on the tin in his profile - a dashing tough as nails half back that likes to take the game on - ala smith

 

[119others]

why would they release that? So incriminating and disrespectful to Caddy even

'Lets hope they dont pick Curtin. If they do we are in trouble'

Genuinely shocked they let this get out with editing

 

[Golumless]

why would they release that? So incriminating and disrespectful to Caddy even

'Lets hope they dont pick Curtin. If they do we are in trouble'

Genuinely shocked they let this get out with editing

I think that's the wrong take from the footage. It sounds like they were hoping we take Leake/O'Sullivan so Geelong would be able to select Curtin as they likely knew Geelong was going to be open to offers if he's off the board, potentially allowing another team to snipe Caddy.

After all, the second comment after "****" is "Caddy's gone boys" and they quickly offered a second round pick for a one pick upgrade to remove that possibility.

 

[WeeBlake]

Isn't that in relation to Caddy though? I.e. hoping Curtin slides to Geelong so they get Caddy without any dramas seeing their second response to Curtin being selected is "Caddy's gone".

It’s pretty clearly about exactly that

 

[119others]

I watched the whole thing and his whole demeanour was terrible - arrogant, aggressive and smarmy

The sort of guy that if he can get a one up on you no matter how small, he'd rub it in

just ridiculous all round - that they would release footage saying they wanted Curtin and missed him ('we are in trouble if they pick Curtin'). And then the stupid trade up one pick - surely Cats wouldnt have done that pick swap IF they wanted Caddy so Dons basically gave away pick 31 for nothing...

No wonder the Dodo is extinct - stupidest creature to ever grace the earth

 

[119others]

I think that's the wrong take from the footage. It sounds like they were hoping we take Leake/O'Sullivan so Geelong would be able to select Curtin as they likely knew Geelong was going to be open to offers if he's off the board, potentially allowing another team to snipe Caddy.

After all, the second comment after "*" is "Caddy's gone boys" and they quickly offered a second round pick for a one pick upgrade to remove that possibility.

I dont really understand your point here mate? Why would they want us to take one KPD but not the other? Purely that they 'knew' Cats wanted Curtin but not COS? Isnt it just ask likely Dons wanted Curtin themselves?

EDIT watching it again you may well be right...

 

[Golumless]

I dont really understand your point here mate? Why would they want us to take one KPD but not the other? Purely that they 'knew' Cats wanted Curtin but not COS? Isnt it just ask likely Dons wanted Curtin themselves?

The only player Essendon wants at this point is Nate Caddy, which is made clear by their own dialogue. The "****" is purely in relation to Caddy as it was classifed they thought Caddy was gone just after. That may be that Curtin is too good to slide past Cats or the Cats have told them - and others - they're looking to off-load pick 9 if Curtin is off the board (After all, we're also spooked by Geelong). Curtain was who Twomey linked to Geelong after all in his phantom a couple of days prior.

Us taking O'Sullivan/Leake -> Geelong gets Curtain -> Essendon gets Caddy.

Us taking Curtain -> Geelong is selling pick 9 -> another team has an opportunity to snipe Caddy. Essendon were that paranoid about this scenario they offered a future second (quite likely pick 24-28) for a one-pick upgrade to stop this from happeneing.

 

[Bearded Clam]

I actually need a new washing machine, but when I saw that shiny new TV at a discount, even though I have a perfectly decent TV, I couldn't resist.

We will look back on these past few years and, while lamenting we couldn't quite get it done in this window, we will realise it was our lack of prioritising drafting quality mids that cost us.

Again.. Its the mcasey decision that is gonna kill us..

Take serong or day instead and with dawson, serong/day, pedlar, rachele, rankine and maybe even curtin thrown in we’re a very talented midfield unit.

With just that one extra talented mid coming into their 4th season right now it would really help round out our current list.

Its probably gonna cost us big time.

 

[ContrarianCrow]

Again.. Its the mcasey decision that is gonna kill us..

Take serong or day instead and with dawson, serong/day, pedlar, rachele, rankine and maybe even curtin thrown in we’re a very talented midfield unit.

With just that one extra talented mid coming into their 4th season right now it would really help round out our current list.

Its probably gonna cost us big time.

As terrible a pick as it was, there's no reason to think 1 bad draft call is going to kill off our premiership aspirations. Every club (even the good ones) blow draft picks for whatever reason. Collingwood drafted Jaidyn Stephenson with the cursed pick 6 in 2017 - their main weakness is key fwd - Naughton and Fogarty went at pick 9 & 12. Geelong blew consecutive 1st round picks on Darcy Lang & Nakia Cockatoo. Melbourne picked Weideman over McKay & Curnow. Richmond picked Ben Lennon 1 pick before Cripps.

I'd argue shrewd list management and bringing in the right targets is more important than nailing every draft pick. Using the same last 4 premiers:

Collingwood: Hill, Crisp, Mitchell, Adams
Geelong: Dangerfield, J. Cameron, I. Smith, Stengle
Melbourne: May, Lever, Langdon
Richmond: Lynch, Houli, Prestia

We're starting to build up enough hits in the draft to offset the misses, along with some outstanding pickups in Dawson, Rankine, even Hinge to a lesser extent. I'd love to see the rumoured coin that was directed at Petty used towards prising out a top-tier mid instead.

 

[Mostyn]

Not bad, except the private school part, what’s that about?

Maybe a dumb idea, but I think a partnership between the AFL and those major private schools could achieve a lot - incentivise them to move away from being league and union schools, and use their scholarships on Aussie rules. I think that could lead to big culture shifts across the state.

 

[rabidcrow]

With Edwards rated higher than Goad, there was no scenario for us to land Goad, especially with North having so many picks around the early 20s.

AFL charity essentially allowed North to control that part of the draft to get who they wanted


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[rabidcrow]

why would they release that? So incriminating and disrespectful to Caddy even

'Lets hope they dont pick Curtin. If they do we are in trouble'

Genuinely shocked they let this get out with editing

Not really. They were worried Geelong were locked in on Curtin and Caddy. No where had Adelaide been linked with Caddy but we were heavily linked to Curtin and OSullivan.
By picking Curtin, Essendon thought the Cats would then take their other option - Caddy


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com