Preview 2023 Rd 21 Carlton vs St Kilda Sunday August 6 3:20PM @ Marvel Stadium

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Final Team is in …

2 changes


IN: Fisher
OUT: Cerra (hamstring), McGovern (hamstring)


After starting last weekend as sub, Paddy Dow has been elevated into the starting side.






Backs:Brodie KempJacob WeiteringNic Newman
Half-backs:Alex CincottaCaleb MarchbankAdam Saad
Centreline:Sam DochertyPatrick CrippsOliver Hollands
Half-forwards:Jack MartinCharlie CurnowZac Fisher
Forwards:Jesse MotlopMarc PittonetMatthew Owies
Followers:Tom De KoningGeorge HewettPaddy Dow
Interchange:Blake AcresMatthew CottrellDavid Cuningham
Lachie Fogarty
Emergencies:Jaxon BinnsEd CurnowSam Durdin
Josh Honey
 
Will this be our starting midfield?

Cripps
Hewitt
Docherty
Dow

Missing a fair bit of class. Hope they can get it done.
What about players rotating through? Acers? Cunningham?

How will they get through Weiteringbot, who's one of the form defenders in the comp right now?
 

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What about players rotating through? Acers? Cunningham?

How will they get through Weiteringbot, who's one of the form defenders in the comp right now?
Both teams have players that will chop out in the guts, IMO our starting midfield is thin. Weiters is in great form. Hope we get the choccies and the cavalry arrives asap.
 
One guy.... Weitering is absolutely tiers better than. Team defense will more than account for the rest.

This is a team that struggles to kick a score against anyone except the bottom clubs and sometimes they've struggled scoring against them too. Their forward line is meeting a defense that is both harder and better than them.

They won't score more than 65 on us.
 
Okay, this is when sides start to take notice

Saints/Ross will try to completely stifle the game

It will be dour for most of the contest, but no matter the scores, we will double their output


I suspect there will be a frustrating first half while St Kilda flood our forward line and look to piss Cripps off.

As always we'll let membrey and someone like Higgins off the leash. With that said, I think we will win this time.

Usually I am pretty downbeat about or clashes against the saints but I don't think they are much chop... and if they want to rush King back... let them.


Need to have a plan for Sinclair, hopefully the Vossy tells our boys that he doesn't play for Carlton so we don't pass it to him.
 
If Hill is playing, someone to run with him would be good. Seemed to be an instruction to Saints to get it to him last time round. Linking between the arcs and creative forward 50 entries. Help the defence if we shut that down a bit more.
 
Both teams have players that will chop out in the guts, IMO our starting midfield is thin. Weiters is in great form. Hope we get the choccies and the cavalry arrives asap.

Definitely thin but strong considering we are missing 3 top line mids...some other clubs could barely name a midfield if it happened to them.

They are also very thin with Ross and Jones missing...pretty much just Steele and Crouch. Byrnes will play mid all game but he's a bit of a no name. Then they get cameos from Sinclair and Owens...possibly Clark.

Would be huge of Hill misses but indications seems to be that he will play.
 

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Hawthorn put 6 goals on them in the second quarter - we can do that in the first 15-20 minutes.
There is no way they kick 9 in the 1st quarter again.
We come out & hunt them it should be done by half way thru the 2nd quarter.
We can’t take them lightly but we sure as hell won’t be fearing them.
1 quarter of us at 90% the game should be over, hopefully we do it early & just keep a foot on there neck all game. Would like to see us kick 2 for every one they put on (after we kick 5-6 on them early)
 
If Hill is playing, someone to run with him would be good. Seemed to be an instruction to Saints to get it to him last time round. Linking between the arcs and creative forward 50 entries. Help the defence if we shut that down a bit more.

Sinclair and Hill always seem to hurt us, but if this new Carlton can negate Collingwoods run from guys like Daicos, Quaynor, Noble and Markov, we can stop anyone.
 
Hawthorn put 6 goals on them in the second quarter - we can do that in the first 15-20 minutes.
There is no way they kick 9 in the 1st quarter again.
We come out & hunt them it should be done by half way thru the 2nd quarter.
We can’t take them lightly but we sure as hell won’t be fearing them.
1 quarter of us at 90% the game should be over, hopefully we do it early & just keep a foot on there neck all game. Would like to see us kick 2 for every one they put on (after we kick 5-6 on them early)

I only watched parts of the 1st quarter, but from what I saw Hawthorn's pressure was basically non existent.
 
Here's a bit of a summary of my results from doing the ladder predictor many times with different combos.

Disclaimer: this aint scientific folks ;)

St.Kilda and Giants are the "8 point" games and are crucial - these are significantly more important than the other 2 as the teams we play are fighting for the same spots.
  • If we win 3 or 4 games we'll get in.
  • If we only win 2 games (both crucial) then we likely get in.
  • If we only win 2 games (one crucial, one not) then it's 50/50 and we're leaving our fate in the hands of other teams.
  • If we only win 2 games(neither crucial) then we likely miss out.
  • If we win 1 or 0 games then obviously .... yeah that won't happen :)
At first, I found these results a little confusing, because by looking at the ladder you'd think our outlook is a bit better.

But reality is there are a few teams in contention that have a significantly easier run home than us - we play 4th, 5th and 6th on the ladder.

Last week was huge for belief - but this week is actually more important in terms of making the 8!

Wonder if anyone else has found same/different conclusions.
 
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Play in the manner that we have over the past six games and we win this game quite comfortably and move on to next week. If we decide that all we have to do to win is to turn up then we could be in trouble but I'm confident that isn't the headspace that our players are in. Not worried about what happens in 4 weeks time, look after the now and that will take care of itself.
 
If Hill is playing, someone to run with him would be good. Seemed to be an instruction to Saints to get it to him last time round. Linking between the arcs and creative forward 50 entries. Help the defence if we shut that down a bit more.
I agree mate, everything off half back came through Hill last time. However this was one thing we did brilliantly against the scum last week - Noble & Quaynor were held brilliantly by Fog & Cunners. Totally stopped their run and handball chain set up off half back. Given that showing I'm confident he can at the very least slow their half back run & carry.
 
I understand the frustration, he’s been a slow burn for a variety of reasons there’s parts of his game that have been disappointing which we all thought he’d be a bit further advanced and a bit more consistent…

He still has some work to do, all aspects of his marking for me is one of the biggest pieces of his game that is holding him back from putting it all together…

His workrate pressure tackling chasing commitment is fantastic and he’s a team player, there’s a noticeable difference in some parts of his game of late when playing as the main ruckman, once the belief that he knows he belongs comes so will the consistency…

24 yrs & 53 games…
All murmurings are he took a team friendly contract and has bet on himself breaking out.

I admire that in many ways.
 
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