Preview 2023 Rd 6 Carlton vs St Kilda Sunday April 23 3:20PM @ Marvel Stadium

[Aphrodite]

Team is in ...





IN: Cincotta, McGovern

OUT: Saad (hamstring), De Koning (managed), Plowman

NEW: Cincotta (debut)


After starting last weekend as substitute, Josh Honey has been elevated into the 22.

AFL team news: McGovern back down back

Mitch McGovern's return marks one of three changes for Carlton.

www.carltonfc.com.au

Round 6 Team v St Kilda
Backs:	Jacob Weitering	Nic Newman	Lewis Young
Half-backs:	Alex Cincotta (DEBUT)	Mitch McGovern	Blake Acres
Centreline:	Sam Walsh	Patrick Cripps	Ollie Hollands
Half-forwards:	Zac Fisher	Harry McKay	Jack Silvagni
Forwards:	Corey Durdin	Charlie Curnow	Jesse Motlop
Followers:	Marc Pittonet	George Hewett	Adam Cerra
Interchange:	Lachie Cowan	Ed Curnow	Josh Honey
	Matthew Kennedy
Emergencies:	Tom De Koning	Brodie Kemp	Lochie O'Brien
	Lachie Plowman

 

[TheReal99prelim]

6 tackles in 5 games (and 3 games with no tackles) isn’t good enough for the role he’s playing.

Remove the last 5 words
Fisher has had the most overrated career of 100 games it's not funny
Off to the VFL for an extended period!!

 

[BringFevBack2021]

Remove the last 5 words
Fisher has had the most overrated career of 100 games it's not funny
Off to the VFL for an extended period!!

I would agree with VFL if Carroll, Cuningham, Honey, Philp (injured, I know) or Martin were fit and were more deserving of his spot. Currently, I don't reckon any of them are.

 

[TheReal99prelim]

Our inside mids are 17th for clearances this year

My guess is that Dow is being kept out of the side in case we embarras ourselves and drop to 18th

Need to hold on tight to the small wins (17th versus 18th)

 

[Benaly28]

Remove the last 5 words
Fisher has had the most overrated career of 100 games it's not funny
Off to the VFL for an extended period!!

In this game id rotate Fish through the middle and have him at stoppages along with Motlop.We’re void of speed and would add a different dimension I think.


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[jimsta10]

Hopefully they name Jack Martin in on Thursday as well. Always excited to guess when he’ll get ruled out with a calf.

Someone needs to develop a vaccine for calf injuries, getting contagious by the minute.

 

[TheReal99prelim]

In this game id rotate Fish through the middle and have him at stoppages along with Motlop.We’re void of speed and would add a different dimension I think.


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We'll just have to disagree on this one B28...he's had a truckload of chances to become a quality player...IMHO, he is the template for someone who is just cruising and comfortable

 

[BlueTang]

In this game id rotate Fish through the middle and have him at stoppages along with Motlop.We’re void of speed and would add a different dimension I think.


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I haven't loved Fisher’s work in the middle this year, seems to want to hand pass the ball as fast as he can, or doing dump kicks forward not very targeted. Prefer Motts and Durds were given 5 mins or so a quarter to see what they can do in there. Both are usually pretty good users of the ball, might help with their confidence getting a few extra disposals. Just want to see the team try some new things

 

[Arr0w]

I laugh when I see discussion around tackling, especially in the current era

We sit 13th, Pies 9th, Saints 14th, Crows 15th, Lions 18th

Some of our players that avg 2 tackles or less a game. Doc, Acres, Jsos, Fisher, Saad, Owies, etc

Some players from other clubs, Breust, Spargo, Gresham, J Cripps, Butters, Rayner, Close, Papley, Walters, etc, etc

Game is more about pressure and turnovers

 

[skadoosh]

I laugh when I see discussion around tackling, especially in the current era

We sit 13th, Pies 9th, Saints 14th, Crows 15th, Lions 18th

Some of our players that avg 2 tackles or less a game. Doc, Acres, Jsos, Fisher, Saad, Owies, etc

Some players from other clubs, Breust, Spargo, Gresham, J Cripps, Butters, Rayner, Close, Papley, Walters, etc, etc

Game is more about pressure and turnovers

I get annoyed at how often we seem to be tackling poorly whether it's tackling the waist allowing a free handball or over-committing to a player at pace and getting easily brushed off/side-stepped.

For people who watch other teams - are we poor - or is this just the norm?

 

[52Goals4inGranny]

I laugh when I see discussion around tackling, especially in the current era

We sit 13th, Pies 9th, Saints 14th, Crows 15th, Lions 18th

Some of our players that avg 2 tackles or less a game. Doc, Acres, Jsos, Fisher, Saad, Owies, etc

Some players from other clubs, Breust, Spargo, Gresham, J Cripps, Butters, Rayner, Close, Papley, Walters, etc, etc

Game is more about pressure and turnovers

Mate, If i was going to war or needed loyalty and backup, you'd be coming with me

 

[Arr0w]

I get annoyed at how often we seem to be tackling poorly whether it's tackling the waist allowing a free handball or over-committing to a player at pace and getting easily brushed off/side-stepped.

For people who watch other teams - are we poor - or is this just the norm?

Tackling is more important on the inside, but even now, sides won't over commit numbers to the ball carrier.

The best sides rate pressure over tackles

 

[The Blue Weirdo]

Fish can stay until Owies recovers.
We don't need 4 small forwards playing together, happy to see them all rotated between VFL and AFL depending on form.
We've got better spare mids than Fish(if that's his role) and we need a HF that marks, tackles and goals.(not a lot of choice here)
Martin or Cunners replaces 1 of the smalls.
Kemp or Gov(don't like moving him from defence) looking over JSOS's shoulder.

Draft a young X-factor FWD/MID.

 

[Blue__Balls]

Tackling is more important on the inside, but even now, sides won't over commit numbers to the ball carrier.

The best sides rate pressure over tackles

Tackles = pressure.

How much pressure is applied when a player attempts to tackle, gets stepped, ends up 5m past the guy with the ball before they can turn around and sheepishly jog back?

Clue - it's a negative number.

Our missed tackles are giving opposition players time and space that they shouldn't have.

Yes, other forms of pressure are just as important. But when the chance to tackle is there we need to be sticking them.

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

I'll make a slight change to my original ins/outs now that the VFL game is done.

Assuming Pitto gets up (not aware of any talk that he'll miss).

Out - Ed, Honey, SOS, Plow
In - Gov, Kemp, Carroll, Cincotta, Binns.

If Gov's in, play Kemp forward in place of SOS.
If Gov's out, play Kemp back and maybe bring Lemmey in to play forward.

Interested to see how we bounce back. Saints play a brand of footy that could trouble us if we play like we did against the Crows.

 

[Arr0w]

Tackles = pressure.

How much pressure is applied when a player attempts to tackle, gets stepped, ends up 5m past the guy with the ball before they can turn around and sheepishly jog back?

Clue - it's a negative number.

Our missed tackles are giving opposition players time and space that they shouldn't have.

Yes, other forms of pressure are just as important. But when the chance to tackle is there we need to be sticking them.

Yes, tackles are a component of pressure

Most players miss tackles, or get stepped, or don't arrive in time to negate a quick release

In open play, if you miss a tackle or get stepped (all sides do) and the opposition create + numbers, it generally results in a score

 

[HarryFlashman]

Tackles = pressure.

How much pressure is applied when a player attempts to tackle, gets stepped, ends up 5m past the guy with the ball before they can turn around and sheepishly jog back?

Clue - it's a negative number.

Our missed tackles are giving opposition players time and space that they shouldn't have.

Yes, other forms of pressure are just as important. But when the chance to tackle is there we need to be sticking them.

100% break a tackle there’s a loose player created nearby every time, as someone needs to cover. Moment that happens the pressure is nullified (unless you are a very good side that can provide the cover- we aren’t) & good side uses that loose to cut u to shreds.

 

[Mondyboy]

Fixed for you - I wish it was Ayce Cordy ...

Thanks. I knew it was one of the Cordys…


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[Blueballs38]

Just can’t see us winning this one. We are so slow and so predictable. Opposition has worked us out, play the same game plan against us which is so bloody obvious to all Blues supporters yet Voss does nothing to address it. Maybe he just doesn’t have the cattle …. I don’t know. But being 17th in contested possessions the game plan we are trying to utilise and then allowing the opposition to get the contested ball way more than us , letting them spread quickly and then become witches hats ….. grrrrrrr

As for our delivery into the 50 when we do have it double grrrrrr

I do t want to see Plowman ever again in the senior side he is not even depth in my eyes anymore … should retire mid season.

Until we sort out the glaring issues we are not a finals side. I mean honestly how many broken tackles this year …. We seem to be as weak as piss in this area too.

Too many holes and no one fears us.

The Aints are gonna have a field day which pisses me right off as I hate those see u next tuesdays!

 

[Blue__Balls]

Yes, tackles are a component of pressure

Most players miss tackles, or get stepped, or don't arrive in time to negate a quick release

In open play, if you miss a tackle or get stepped (all sides do) and the opposition create + numbers, it generally results in a score

Arrow, this is going to be a very pointless discussion if your response is just going to be "all sides miss tackles". Yes, they do. Anecdotally, I believe we miss more. Anecdotally, perhaps you believe we don't. Unless you've got access to stats on it that I don't, suffice to say it's better for the board if we leave it there.

The only addition I'll make though - even if other sides are missing as many tackles as we are, surely you'd accept that trying to improve our tackling would represent an opportunity to elevate us above other sides.

 

[Arr0w]

Arrow, this is going to be a very pointless discussion if your response is just going to be "all sides miss tackles". Yes, they do. Anecdotally, I believe we miss more. Anecdotally, perhaps you believe we don't. Unless you've got access to stats on it that I don't, suffice to say it's better for the board if we leave it there.

The only addition I'll make though - even if other sides are missing as many tackles as we are, surely you'd accept that trying to improve our tackling would represent an opportunity to elevate us above other sides.

Yes, we should be looking to improve our tackling, like other aspects of our game, which are far more important IMHO

It's now less likely that you stop ball movement with tackles unless you are in congestion and can pin both arms

All flag winners over the last 2 decades, finish on average mid table for tackles, Demons the only real exception

Anyway, looking forward to another tough contest

 

[goreds]

Tackling IS a poor measure of pressure as it can be weighted to heavy as a general number. It used to be the be all and end all, until teams watched soccer and learned the drill of ‘draw player, pass the ball and move to receive.’ This takes the defending player out of the contest and adds an extra to the attacking side.

Now it’s gone to another level with teams marking space, especially on the 45 kick which closes the corridor. They (saints) commit players to a zone and pressure but don’t fly in on tackles (like we do) , which means the offensive side must kick to a spot they don’t want to (not trained to), then turnover.

Only way to beat it is to keep the width in your play and use overlap to create running numbers ( which Pies tried to do from defence).

Contested ball is not just around the ball up, it’s also if the ball hits the ground which is where the Pies( Daicos) excel…

 

[Blue since 72]

Yeap and went at 50% by foot having 6 kicks

But we know there are no stats on defensive running, transition and positioning

Hey mate, do you think it's worth giving him a go, say rotating through the bench to see if his attributes compliment the others?

We all know his down side but we do have players playing now who are definitely not noted for their defensive running and have the added bonus of inconsistent disposal quality.

And yes I am talking about Cripps as one example but not so much as a direct comparison, more of a given our midfield are mostly the same type of player offensively would Dow be enough of a point of difference to be worth a crack.

 

[CJMB]

Tackles = pressure.

How much pressure is applied when a player attempts to tackle, gets stepped, ends up 5m past the guy with the ball before they can turn around and sheepishly jog back?

Clue - it's a negative number.

Our missed tackles are giving opposition players time and space that they shouldn't have.

Yes, other forms of pressure are just as important. But when the chance to tackle is there we need to be sticking them.

Crows game was really an outlier in terms of our tackle numbers, nearly 50% improvement on our average through the first 4 games. Even though we got murdered through the middle and on the spread, you've still got more opportunities to tackle when you're losing and the other side collects about 25% more disposals.

Sticking a tackle in the middle kind of doesn't mean much when as soon as the ball spurts out of congestion and they've got a heap of players in the open who can move the ball forward at will. Conversely you can have a scenario where the tackles aren't made but those opposition players outside have someone hot on their tail (rather than being 10m+ in the clear) can apply way more pressure than that one 'stationary' tackle on the inside. Of course you've got to land them when you get the chance, but there's so many outside variables that impact the defensive pressure that aren't even captured (certainly in the data we have access to).

Raw numbers are never really worth much (aside from overall score at the final siren). It's a bit like inside 50s; it's not so much about the quantity as it is the quality (and also a handful of related stats, the eye test, etc).

Richmond - Draw - 55 to 70 tackles
Geelong - 8pt win - 56 to 69
GWS - 10pt win - 39 to 53
North - 23pt win - 52 to 44
Crows - 56pt shellacking - 75 to 57

 

[Arr0w]

Hey mate, do you think it's worth giving him a go, say rotating through the bench to see if his attributes compliment the others?

We all know his down side but we do have players playing now who are definitely not noted for their defensive running and have the added bonus of inconsistent disposal quality.

And yes I am talking about Cripps as one example but not so much as a direct comparison, more of a given our midfield are mostly the same type of player offensively would Dow be enough of a point of difference to be worth a crack.

No reason it can't work, just need to juggle other aspects, such as setups, rotations and translational cover

A bit to do, to fit 1 player in

 

[Coona Blues]

Your assessment of the St. Kilda list could not be further from the mark. In the last couple of years they have loaded up on some very good youngsters. They have had a series of questionable senior coaches and very poor management. Their assistant coaches have arguably been the weakest group for a few years.

SOS does not have much to do. Only journeyman ruck depth Tom Campbell is over 30. They did overinvest in experience for a while, but have drafted extremely well. Last year’s NGA boys Windhager and Owens have class, fortitude and workrate. They have been light on for KPP depth which is the go slow. King is quality if he can stay on the park. They have some top notch 3rd talls masquerading as KPP who will be critical. Phillipou will be a star (his ceiling is Fyfe who can kick), Van Es a decent or better KPD kid, Keeler if can be harnessed is as good a ruck/forward as there was available in the draft. Young Hotton is a current LTI, but is exactly the pace and X factor they need to add to the group of very solid mids.

Marshall is a quality ruck, Gresham realised his potential last year, Sinclair a revelation, Steele, the skipper is a quality midfield bull. Clark and Coffield are highly rated youngsters plagued by injury. They are fragile forward, but with an ounce of luck, there is little to do to complete the list.

They have a little dead wood imported as depth, but Ryder and Haneberry are already gone. They have put together a balanced young group who could easily elevate quickly with a more competent coaching group.

Some of our supporter group are too arrogant and unfamiliar with the riches on other lists. SOS has inherited a dream job, there is massive potential to turn things around quickly. I am no fan of the Saints, underestimate their list at your peril.

Just reliving a little preseason discussion emanating from comments on how difficult the list management in front of SOS was.

Think we can get them, but the respective ins and outs will be quite critical. We need more spread, two way running and dare with our ball movement.

Our coaches have some tough decisions to make with our “mix”. Thought we had a “review”? We still have too many elements of the “boys club” within our ranks. The more things change, the more they stay the same.

Switch it up Vossy and stop “relying” on a model which produces a wildly swinging set of outcomes. Predictability is not a good thing. (BTW Unpredictable should not include going in with a bare 6 defenders, then losing a key player and throwing a mid who is a good option as a POD forward behind the ball for the first time in his career while struggling in his wheelhouse)