2024 Draft Thread.

[Mat Mann]

Draft Period, November 20–21

• Round 1 of the National Draft: Wednesday, November 20
• Round 2–end of the National Draft: Thursday, November 21
• Rookie Promotions: Thursday, November 21, after the National Draft
• Delisted Free Agency Period (3): Thursday, November 21, after the National Draft
• List Lodgement 3*: Friday, November 22, 10am (optional; required for those participating in the PSD)
• Pre-Season Draft: Friday, November 22, 3pm
• Rookie Draft: Friday, November 22, 3.20pm

 

[Tommy Wigs]

Tauru at 2 is a stretch.

Towmey thinks he is between 7 to 10 and 6 mids are 'certainties to be in the top 6.

I can’t recall where Windsor was place with 3 weeks to go (on rumours not rankings). He had a fairly rapid rise. onky takes one club.

 

[akaifu]

We get 2 of the top 6 or 7 besides Ashcroft regardless. The issue is any of the top 6 could end up being the best player, so why trade for a player at 2 who may be no better than the kid you’d have got at 6 or 7. Everyone touting FOS at 2 are, I think risking a bomb. He has poor disposal numbers and current years stats (16) are piss poor. I’m hoping Richmond stays away from him. Gets limited Centre clearance. FOS is not a midfielder but more a HFF who does some clearance work in small amounts.

There’s no way FOS slides to 6, you don’t need to go around trying to talk him down to everyone

 

[stavro#4]

I can’t recall where Windsor was place with 3 weeks to go (on rumours not rankings). He had a fairly rapid rise. onky takes one club.

I posted this the other week.

The last few drafts have had 1 player rise 4 spots in Twomeys last form guide to their actual draft place.

GWS in 2022 took Cadman at 1 who was at 5.

Dees took window at 7 who was at 11.

 

[True Believer]

Usually its easier to get key defenders, so it would be a bit weird if we start shifting competent forwards into defence.
But who knows.

Josh Battle says hello........

 

[Saintscomemarchingin]

Get Tauru, plays reasonably straight away?, problem solved. Like Caminiti, could play back or forward for team needs.
Tauru, not likely to happen.
So Armstrong, Shanahan, Trainor come into play, would think. If we keep 7 & 8. Armstrong the one, based on ratings.
Trade out 8 for two later picks, then Shanahan or Trainor.
Or take a speculative tall at 32.
Then Cole.
Two mids, two talls being best available, my preference in the draft.

 

[sregit]

Careful what you wish for! Tigers could still trade for #2 and take FOS that would be embarrassing for yourself....

Not embarrassing. If they do that then fine. I’d personally rather Jagga and Lalor then Langford or Draper, even Tarau. Just shows how even the first 7 or even 8 are. It’s a lottery. It’s Interesting to read what others think. On the Richmond board a month ago it was Jagga v FOS for pick 1. Now it’s Lalor v FOS. Interesting the number of posters who changed their minds from FOS @1 to Lalor. Yet Lalor was out injured and had done nothing to improve his position. Jagga in the meantime just kept racking up possessions and dominating but has fallen out as the early pick.

I’m not sure it worth trading to get an earlier pick as there is nothing that says pick 2 is better than 7 or 8 in an even draft.

 

[sregit]

There’s no way FOS slides to 6, you don’t need to go around trying to talk him down to everyone

Go check his stats. Low for a midfielder.

 

[sregit]

Go check his stats. Low for a midfielder.

I’m not talking him down. The point I’m trying to make is I don’t think he’s worth selling the farm for and I am not convinced he’s a true midfielder. I saw him play 2 CTL and 1 Richmond reserves game. He had limited midfield possessions but did okay as a HFF. Very classy with ball in hand but not enough of it. In the game he played for our reserves a number of his stats were handed to him by Jagga Smith.

 

[Air King]

Richmond interested in Allan at 10&11

Draper and Langford front-runners for Adelaide

Allan likely top 10

St Kilda have lodged paperwork to nominate Elwood Peckett as a F/S. they are not obligated to take him

Cole likely off the board before Collingwood’s pick 52

Everyone from 8-15 likes Travaglia

St Kilda have an F1 and will be looking around for NM’s pick 2

per. Gettable

This wasn’t a thing. He was listing teams with 2025 R1 picks looking to get back into the 2024 draft. He didn’t mention St Kilda in relation to Pick 2.

 

[akaifu]

Go check his stats. Low for a midfielder.

You’re saying he played half forward but then analyse his stats in the context of a midfielder?

 

[Tommy Wigs]

I posted this the other week.

The last few drafts have had 1 player rise 4 spots in Twomeys last form guide to their actual draft place.

GWS in 2022 took Cadman at 1 who was at 5.

Dees took window at 7 who was at 11.

Interesting. So Twomey’s rankings by the end (not the 24 hours to go one) have already factored in club whispers.

 

[Joffaboy]

Oh well another doyen of the draft has stated FOS is no good, seems we will have to take Jagga or Draper at 2

So if FOS got to 7 we wouldn't take him? LMAO

On SM-S908E using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Tommy Wigs]

Not embarrassing. If they do that then fine. I’d personally rather Jagga and Lalor then Langford or Draper, even Tarau. Just shows how even the first 7 or even 8 are. It’s a lottery. It’s Interesting to read what others think. On the Richmond board a month ago it was Jagga v FOS for pick 1. Now it’s Lalor v FOS. Interesting the number of posters who changed their minds from FOS @1 to Lalor. Yet Lalor was out injured and had done nothing to improve his position. Jagga in the meantime just kept racking up possessions and dominating but has fallen out as the early pick.

I’m not sure it worth trading to get an earlier pick as there is nothing that says pick 2 is better than 7 or 8 in an even draft.

Agree with a lot of this. I don’t see the point of Richmond nor us for that matter burning currency to get from a Smillie or Langford to FOS.

And the Lalor point is spot on. The so called order gets moved in people’s minds purely on rumours. Lalor, Tauru going up, Smillie, Trainor going backwards.

And then if there is a rumour on one particular player then the board talks itself into that player too

 

[stavro#4]

So the last 2 October form guide had an average movement of 1 either side of Twomeys final from guide to actual draft position + 1 player who launched 4 positions.

2022. Cadman 5 went at 1
2023. Windsor 11 went at 7.

So if you want a very rough pick span and allowing for Tauru to be the big riser - I’ll allow a 2 pick spot movement.

Form guide (Draft Range)

1. Ashcroft (1-3)
2. FOS (1-4)
3. Langford (1-5)
4. Lalor (2-6)
5. Jagga (3-7)
6. Reid (4-8)
7. Draper (5-9)
8. Smillie (6-10)
9. Tauru (5-13) expect to rise
10. Armstrong (8-12)

Tommy Wigs see above mate

It also seems to fit in with Twomeys comments on gettable today.

 

[HeavenlySources]

Agree with a lot of this. I don’t see the point of Richmond nor us for that matter burning currency to get from a Smillie or Langford to FOS.

And the Lalor point is spot on. The so called order gets moved in people’s minds purely on rumours. Lalor, Tauru going up, Smillie, Trainor going backwards.

And then if there is a rumour on one particular player then the board talks itself into that player too

You are making the same mistake and assigning players to picks. It's not about which player, its about getting access ahead of Richmond to make our choice. Lets say

Dalrymple rates
Sam Lalor at 1
Josh Smillie at 2

Richmond then select Sam Lalor at 1 and Josh Smillie at 6, we miss out on both of our first two preferences by sticking with 7 and 8.

It's even worse when you consider the other 4 teams will be selecting mids.

We want to get Pick 2 to give our recruiter the backing to select who they think is the best.

 

[sregit]

You’re saying he played half forward but then analyse his stats in the context of a midfielder?

No. He played midfield in the games but went to HF and did his best work there. Struggled for midfield clearance. His stats for a midfielder this year and even last are not great and yes I’m analysing his stats as a midfielder because that’s what he’s classified as. Those stats don’t stack up to the best onballers. I’m no recruiting officer and therefore am making my own assumptions with regard to FOS but just don’t see all the hype.

Also if he is considered to be a standout I’m sure Richmond would be straight in.

 

[TheJackal]

The Tigers have the luxury of sticking with what they've got because they'll get two of the best six mids... then can fill holes with best available after that.

Norf want to trade down to maximise the currency of pick 2 (which they can do because they've got specific needs for their 1st pick). They can afford to drop out of the top couple, still get their man AND get a potential future 1st for their trouble.

IF we want to trade up its because we're on the edge of the elite midfield talent being available & consider who we could get at #2 to be more valuable than who we might have fall to us at #7....

This is exactly right, I think we'll be reasonably safe with pick 7, but pick 8 is really getting hairy when it comes to what will be available.

The 2 players that I think would make a big difference to us would be FOS and Lalor

I think you could add Draper to those two.

We get 2 of the top 6 or 7 besides Ashcroft regardless. The issue is any of the top 6 could end up being the best player, so why trade for a player at 2 who may be no better than the kid you’d have got at 6 or 7. Everyone touting FOS at 2 are, I think risking a bomb. He has poor disposal numbers and current years stats (16) are piss poor. I’m hoping Richmond stays away from him. Gets limited Centre clearance. FOS is not a midfielder but more a HFF who does some clearance work in small amounts.

Watch some full games of FOS before you embarrass yourself too much. The guy reads the play better than anyone, some of his best traits are impossible to teach.

I do agree with your first bit though, I think that's why you shouldn't give up the capital that North may want.

Pick 8 for North would mean Armstrong or Tauru will get to them, surely all of Dees, us and Richmond don't all go tall @ 5, 6, 7 - especially with the quality of midfielder on the board.

 

[stavro#4]

No. He played midfield in the games but went to HF and did his best work there. Struggled for midfield clearance. His stats for a midfielder this year and even last are not great and yes I’m analysing his stats as a midfielder because that’s what he’s classified as. Those stats don’t stack up to the best onballers. I’m no recruiting officer and therefore am making my own assumptions with regard to FOS but just don’t see all the hype.

Also if he is considered to be a standout I’m sure Richmond would be straight in.

Stats for the likely pick 1 - Sam Lalor
(3 years of Coates league most recent at the bottom)


Stats for the likely pick 2 - Finn O’Sullivan
(2 years of Coates league and missed major parts of this year)

 

[sregit]

This is exactly right, I think we'll be reasonably safe with pick 7, but pick 8 is really getting hairy when it comes to what will be available.


I think you could add Draper to those two.



Watch some full games of FOS before you embarrass yourself too much. The guy reads the play better than anyone, some of his best traits are impossible to teach.

I do agree with your first bit though, I think that's why you shouldn't give up the capital that North may want.

Pick 8 for North would mean Armstrong or Tauru will get to them, surely all of Dees, us and Richmond don't all go tall @ 5, 6, 7 - especially with the quality of midfielder on the board.

I’ve watched FOS 3 times live and a number of his u17s. None where he had high possession. I believe in the last 2 years he’s yet to have a 30 possey game. Definitely has great skill and awareness with ball in hand. As for embarrassing myself, I don’t profess to be a draft expert but have my own opinion and mine is that FOS will be a good footballer but just not worth selling the farm for. I hope you do get pick 2 and choose him.

 

[sregit]

Stats for the likely pick 1 - Sam Lalor
(3 years of Coates league most recent at the bottom)
View attachment 2154458

Stats for the likely pick 2 - Finn O’Sullivan
(2 years of Coates league and missed major parts of this year)
View attachment 2154459

I can see the stats but I’m a Jagga fan so you’re barking up the wrong tree by putting Lalor’s stats to convince me. Richmond may select FOS @1. All this debate just reinforces my opinion that the top of the draft (6-8) is even and not worth trading away for.

Thanks for being civil during our discussion.

 

[stavro#4]

I can see the stats but I’m a Jagga fan so you’re barking up the wrong tree by putting Lalor’s stats to convince me. Richmond may select FOS @1. All this debate just reinforces my opinion that the top of the draft (6-8) is even and not worth trading away for.

Thanks for being civil during our discussion.

Jagga accumulates and has less hurt then either potential top 2 prospect.

It depends on need. This board would be thrilled with FOS or Jagga. A few myself included would need convincing on Lalor

 

[Diehard Saint]

The original post had nothing to do with 'being better' or loser mentality it was that the generational mids will be gone by our picks by just one or two spots.

Nothing to do with the quality of Armstrong / Taaru they could be AA next year they are still not what we need for the next 5-10 years to have any chance of contention.

According to the experts there is nothing to suggest that any picks this year will be generational a la Harley Reid.

Just as my post said, there is no guarantee picks 2,3,4 etc this draft (or any draft actually) will be better than a pick in the teens, or 20s or even later as has happened in the past. So much of “luck” has to do with the development of the draftee and, as we know well, injuries.

So to lament falling back one place because we happened to win our last game is, for me, overkill.

 

[Saintscomemarchingin]

Jagga accumulates and has less hurt then either potential top 2 prospect.

It depends on need. This board would be thrilled with FOS or Jagga. A few myself included would need convincing on Lalor

Lalor - wrench
FOS- spanner
Jagga-screwdriver
???

 

[HeavenlySources]

I'd be in favour of a pick swap 7&8 for 5&9, I think there is a chance we could get Jagga Smith at 5 and Josh Smillie at 9.

 

[Ads734]

Re

This draft being how it is may be the only reason why it is possible though.

FOS, Lalor, Ashcroft, Draper, Smith, Langford, Smillie, Reid, Tauru, Armstrong, cough Allan. There's 11 names likely to be taken in the first dozen or so.

It really depends on how we see the draft, which I know is stupidly obvious. I'll try to explain.

To me, FOS is your rolled gold Rolls Royce. Plug and go and I don't think we've had anyone like him in over a decade.

Lalor is a massive call to trade two firsts for, I see more Stringer than Dusty at the moment. But he is smashing through that ceiling faster than a feminist in a pants suit.

If Draper was a Victorian, I suggest he'd be rated even higher. I see more JHF in him than most probably do. He's got that ball winning ability but I just love how he can accelerate out of the contest.

Jagga, I'd like him at 8, obviously, but I'm just not in love. GAJ mixed with Darcy Parish for me, so I should be excited, but there's just something I can't put my finger on. I guess the narrative around FOS hurting you with 20 touches vs others at 30 is probably targeting Jagga. Some have said he plays for himself, not convinced it's that bad but I wonder if that helps him slide.

Smillie & Langford, both seem to be not the flavour of the month.

Langford isn't a shiny new thing, but his 2km time trial showed he is made for it. No nonsense, consistent performances, he's simply just very good without the flash. Least bust factor of probably everyone this year. Smillie feels like the opposite in a way, more bust factor, work ethic question marks - all pretty harsh I believe - his slide to us could be a thing of beauty.

Reid, sigh, I really don't know. I have flip flopped so much on him. I want to be sure that he would be a pure mid. I watched Hawthorn in top flight this year and their quick hands and footy IQ was incredible. Couldn't help but think this is what Reid brings! But I find it so hard not to get caught up in the crowd who are saying he might not be quick enough or a mid at next level.

Armstrong, doesn't really make sense for us. Tauru though, he just feels like a great get for where our list is at. Still feels wrong to not look for 2 mids though.

Which leaves Bo, flavour of the month Bo. He feels like a 'normal draft' pick 8 selection. If I was to take someone outside of those top mids, it would have to be for an elite kick at the very least, which is not Bo.

So I've waffled on for a while, and congrats if you've gotten this far!

I started off attempting to point out that we might absolutely be desperate for our rolled gold Rolls Royce in FOS, despite the evenness. Each player represents different needs, despite all being potentially a grade mids.

After writing what I wrote, I feel like we can't be too pick and they all sound bloody amazing. The club, however, might see it differently and might want one in particular to carry our midfield for 15 years.

Reid I heard the exact same things spoken about Sheezel. Th exact. Is he a pure mid, where is his best position?
He has the time and space to be a pure mid.