Rumour 2024 Hypothetical trade and FA Thread

[Strapping Young Lad]

2024 Picks



2025 Picks

 

[MasterSamurai]

A top 5 pick should be off the table for mine.

 

[FB19]

Good luck finding a player of Hardwicks ability with a second round pick

And with pick 28 the GWS giants select…Sam Taylor.

 

[mustang]

Will be interesting with FA compo if the contracts do Jump as much as they say they will as the band 1 figures at the moment could be band 2 figures going forward.

I wonder if clubs could benefit from this at the end of the year while the AFL work out what is going to be the new trigger for band 1 for a first round pick.

As a club could offer the current band 1 easily if they know the TPP are going up ALOT and give a first round pick to the club for there player, where now they would be only offer a band 2 player contract.

 

[TheFourPillars]

And with pick 28 the GWS giants select…Sam Taylor.

Yeah that's not what you will get with all pick 28s its like James Hird was pick fricken gazillion. It doesn't mean you hit gold there every time its a lottery.

 

[theiaofseed]

And with pick 28 the GWS giants select…Sam Taylor.

Okay we will let Hardwick walk for the chance to enter the lottery. Brilliant recruiting strategy.

 

[FB19]

Yeah that's not what you will get with all pick 28s it’s like James Hird was pick fricken gazillion. It doesn't mean you hit gold there every time it’s a lottery.

Sorry was the laughing emoji not the correct way to show I was making a joke. Of course it’s speculative as you go deeper but it’s nowhere near as speculative as when those picks like Swan Hird etc were taken. It was funny because people are offering a mid second round pick 2m a year in the preceding pages of this thread.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

We're talking about Day and Newcombe winning brownlows? Worpel has a legitimate chance this year. 2nd currently in champion data

We have to win games for anyone to be a chance. Worpel will not get value for performances over the first three rounds because we've lost.

 

[FB19]

Okay we will let Hardwick walk for the chance to enter the lottery. Brilliant recruiting strategy.

It was a joke. Hardwick is one of our very few proven elite players in a demographic we don’t have. Would be madness unless he desperately wanted out. What’s the emoji for this is my serious opinion?

 

[RoughysMullet]

Hardwick might leave which could potentially get us a compensation pick like North with McKay, not anything like #3 though. If contracts are increasing with the new tv deal we could afford to pay Sam Taylor a lot, good point.

 

[Mitch75]

Sam Mclure (arguably the media's biggest mouth breather) reporting that WCE are after Taylor, and that GWS are looking at a 6 year contract pushing 1.3 mil a year.

If we were looking to get him I'd imagine we'd have to be looking at 1.6+ for 6-8 years

If that’s GWS offer, then $10.5m over 8 years ($1.3m a year) will get it done

 

[threesixpio]

The simple answer is to stay the course. We won't really know for sure what success looks like until this squad have played 50 games together.

Yeah but …

 

[Leather Poisoning]

I think the club has done well in the last 5 years considering there has been a lot of compromised drafts.
2019 - Will Day
2020 - DGB, S.Mitchell. Covid year. No Vic kids played that year. Who knows DGB may have been a top 20 pick if it was a normal year.
2021 - Ward, Butler, C Mac
2021 - Msd Newcombe
2022 - MacKenzie, Weddle, HH, B Mac
2022 - Msd Ramsden
2023 - Watson, McCabe

We have been a bottom 3/4 team and ended up with pick 6/7 because of Nga, Academy, father son and compo picks.

The only thing we did poorly was in 2020 & 2021 when we won late season games with old players under Clarko.

Kingy should look a bit a deeper. We have not been as fortunate as GC, Sydney, Bulldogs or North in terms of being given draft gifts.

This is not a bad drafting effort at all.

I'm not sure anyone would have done much better with that draft hand. You could pick one or two - but even seeing Ward in his natural habitat on the weekend was a real WOW moment and proof of why he went so high.

The frustration is that the picks got pushed back. Finishing bottom 3 and not having pick 3 sucks.

 

[Leather Poisoning]

This is where 2017-2020 has killed us. We traded for B+ talent (and I'd probably put Mitchell in that category as well tbh) instead of genuine A graders and it hurt us. We still had a serviceable team, especially 17/18 and if we'd taken our medicine and accepted we'd be lower reaches of the 8/just outside we'd have had three/four first rounders coming through and being mentored by our threepeat legends.

Instead Clarko gambled and lost.

Yeah we tried to money ball it by getting guys who were injured or out of favour - but still paid a draft haul of that plater at their very best.

ANYWAY

Here we are now. The number of players on the ground on Sunday that hadn't even made it to 50 or 100 games was ridiculous. So yeah that swag of drafts from 2021 onwards will be the basis. (So unlike Clarko who came in with Hodge, Mitchell, Williams and some absolute guns - Sam has had to clean out a lot more at the back of the cupboard).

 

[Suntory Boss Coffee]

Wonder who offered a 10 year offer to Gulden

 

[thehardway]

Yeah we tried to money ball it by getting guys who were injured or out of favour - but still paid a draft haul of that plater at their very best.

ANYWAY

Here we are now. The number of players on the ground on Sunday that hadn't even made it to 50 or 100 games was ridiculous. So yeah that swag of drafts from 2021 onwards will be the basis. (So unlike Clarko who came in with Hodge, Mitchell, Williams and some absolute guns - Sam has had to clean out a lot more at the back of the cupboard).

15 of Hawthorn’s 2008 premiership team were on the list in Clarko's first year of coach in 2005. Sammy certainly starting from a much tougher position.

 

[theiaofseed]

This is where 2017-2020 has killed us. We traded for B+ talent (and I'd probably put Mitchell in that category as well tbh) instead of genuine A graders and it hurt us. We still had a serviceable team, especially 17/18 and if we'd taken our medicine and accepted we'd be lower reaches of the 8/just outside we'd have had three/four first rounders coming through and being mentored by our threepeat legends.

Instead Clarko gambled and lost.

Players still at the club.

2010-18 - Sicily(55), Hardwick(44), Morrison(74), Lewis(76), Worpel(45), Moore(67)

In 9 AFL draft the earliest draft pick still on our list is Hardwick at Pick 44. This is why we were woeful.

 

[Mercy Seat]

I know he's good but that's a lot of money for one player.

I've seen what one of the best central defenders in the world did for Liverpool (and Oppo supporters thought they were crazy paying what they did for Van Dyk) so I'm not against building a team around him but still, it's a huge play with huge risks and a salary cap to consider. Maybe $12m over 8 years would get it done if GWS are only offering 6 years

I’ve said this before, but one of the reasons for liverpools success is having a super attacking game style matched with the best centre back in the world and the best keeper in the world.

I see some similarities in the way Sam wants us to play, and it is a pretty mouth watering prospect to plug in the game’s best young defender into that mix.

 

[tl92]

Wonder who offered a 10 year offer to Gulden

Adelaide

 

[tl92]

Was listening to Gettable today and they said with the new EBA contracts are going to be like going from Home and Away tv show to Hollywood they are going to be that big a jump.


So if that’s the case the contract we have offered Taylor may not be that big as others will offer just as much.

They also think the 2024 draft at the moment looks like a super draft hopefully we don’t trade out our fist pick.

Also if it is it’s going to be hard to trade in using our 2025 pick to get another first round if we choose to go down this path.

This gets said every year until about September when it becomes “next years crop looks better”.

 

[FB19]

This is not a bad drafting effort at all.

I'm not sure anyone would have done much better with that draft hand. You could pick one or two - but even seeing Ward in his natural habitat on the weekend was a real WOW moment and proof of why he went so high.

The frustration is that the picks got pushed back. Finishing bottom 3 and not having pick 3 sucks.

The strategy to hit the draft 2021-23 as stated by the club I doubt anyone disagrees with. But how do you measure success against that stated aim? Volume of picks, position of picks and quality of player would be the obvious 3 and relative to benchmarks like the rest of the competition and your natural draft hand. Only looking at top 30 as that’s what most pundits talk about:
Volume of picks we have equal 3rd most at 7 behind north and gws and equal to WCE. Our natural would be 6 so one more than expected.
On position of picks we have an extra second and 2 upgraded seconds. As you say the potential issue is only 1 top 5. We do have 2 top 10s but the rest are end of first or early second.
On quality of player it is too early too tell.
One interesting stat is if you average the pick positions divided by total picks taken in the top 30, our average pick is 15 which would rank us 10th overall.
It’s clear we improved our natural draft hand and are ahead of most teams in volume, but the position of picks is probably the potential issue.

 

[cryptor]

Wonder who offered a 10 year offer to Gulden

Revealed the Swans employ most of his family. I'm sure they're all well compensated...

 

[Suntory Boss Coffee]

Revealed the Swans employ most of his family. I'm sure they're all well compensated...

In their defence, his mother has worked there a couple years before he was drafted

 

[Leather Poisoning]

The strategy to hit the draft 2021-23 as stated by the club I doubt anyone disagrees with. But how do you measure success against that stated aim? Volume of picks, position of picks and quality of player would be the obvious 3 and relative to benchmarks like the rest of the competition and your natural draft hand. Only looking at top 30 as that’s what most pundits talk about:
Volume of picks we have equal 3rd most at 7 behind north and gws and equal to WCE. Our natural would be 6 so one more than expected.
On position of picks we have an extra second and 2 upgraded seconds. As you say the potential issue is only 1 top 5. We do have 2 top 10s but the rest are end of first or early second.
On quality of player it is too early too tell.
One interesting stat is if you average the pick positions divided by total picks taken in the top 30, our average pick is 15 which would rank us 10th overall.
It’s clear we improved our natural draft hand and are ahead of most teams in volume, but the position of picks is probably the potential issue.

Well you measure sucess in how well you jump the queue.

If you take your given draft hand every year, you get a top end player or two and hopeully rise up.

Success is how you can outpace the clubs that are doing that. The current methods:
1. Pick better players at your pick than others can do.
2. Free agents - buying them or losing them to get TOP compo picks
3. Trading players out high and in low
4. Academy players
5. Father son
6. Midseason draft.

I don't want to reinterrogate the late Clarko period but he pretty much did the opposite of all of these and had no control of father son. (Although he did get some good cheap pickups like Hendo and Scully was good for a 4th rounder).

But in the Sam era we are:
1. Drafting well by the look of it. Not too many players drafted later are doing better than the ones we've picked.
2. Amon in (tick!)
3. I think we got Ginni and Chol pretty cheap tbh. Kosi and Ryan out relatively high. O'Meara and Mitchell out was gutsy as hell. Didn't yield huge draft capital but was good.
4. Don't think we've brought any in academy players?
5. Finn, Dear and McCabe. Three on the list now. If one of these guys skyrockets it's an absolute game changer
6. Newcombe. A+

So there area things coming together.

The only trick we've missed at this point is being able to trade people out for high end trade capital. But we've at least been active in trying to make that happen. You can see what a difference it would make to bring in a free agent or trade a genuine (not potential) A grader.

 

[Howe Amazing]

When talking about all this stuff

GOD I CANNOT STAND CAL TWOMEY!!!!

Essendon Muppett

He tried to say recently Bombers were at same stage of list build. They have topped up, went to the draft, went to the draft and topped up. They are still ordinary

 

[earthworms]

I said hardwick might leave not that he is going to leave. Chances are he's staying.