Rumour 2024 Hypothetical trade and FA Thread

[Strapping Young Lad]

2024 Picks



2025 Picks

 

[KermitJagger]

All the talk about trading first round picks for established players gave me the idea for a quick bit of analysis. I call it “Objective returns on first round picks: A draft and trade comparison from 2010 - 2018”. This is a comparison of where a solitary player has been dealt for either a single first round pick, or a combination of picks and “steak knife” players including a first rounder, excluding any players dealt as part of a complex multi club trades where the value of the 1st round pick or player is mitigated by other picks or players in the rotation.

The purpose of this is to judge the difference in return between first round picks when dealt for established players or taken to the draft. As not every pick has been traded for a player in that time period, the analysis will only cover those picks which have been traded as part of a player in the circumstances outlined above.

Here is the list of picks that have been dealt for a player in trade, the average of games played by players received for those picks, and the total amount of AA selections and Brownlow wins amongst those players:

Pick	Times Traded	Average Games Played	Total AA Selections	Total Brownlow Wins
2​	1​	91​	0​	0​
6​	4​	96​	5​	2​
7​	1​	94​	0​	0​
9​	2​	129​	5​	1​
10​	3​	123​	2​	0​
12​	2​	82​	2​	0​
14​	2​	94​	2​	1​
15​	3​	64​	0​	0​
16​	1​	2​	0​	0​
17​	2​	104​	1​	0​
18​	3​	83​	0​	0​
Total	24​	92​	17​	4​

A total of 24 picks have been dealt in return for players, with an average return of 92 games played, 17 total AA selections at .7 selections per player and 4 Brownlow wins.

Pick	Times Selected	Average Games Played	Total AA Selections	Total Brownlow Wins
2​	9​	133​	6​	0​
6​	9​	125​	6​	0​
7​	9​	141​	2​	1​
9​	9​	148​	2​	0​
10​	9​	81​	2​	0​
12​	9​	80​	4​	0​
14​	9​	130​	2​	0​
15​	9​	106​	0​	0​
16​	9​	89​	0​	0​
17​	9​	92​	0​	0​
18​	9​	120​	2​	0​
Total	99​	113​	26​	1​

A total of 99 players have been selected using picks matching those dealt in trades, with an average return of 113 games played, 26 total AA selections at .26 selections per player and 1 Brownlow win.

On a pure numbers basis, though on average you will get 21 games less from players acquired in trade, you're 2.7x more likely to receive an All Australian jumper from players traded in with first round picks, and 16.5x more likely to receive a Brownlow medal over that 8 season period.

There's no particular reason outside of laziness that I decided to drag in 2010 - 2018, if I could have been bothered I would have gone further out but it was getting too annoying and I gave up. I started at 2018 as it seemed a reasonable amount of time to allow for draftees to get embedded.

Conclusion - trading a late first ain't that serious, and you're more likely to get better individual seasons out of the traded player anyway which is the goal. The end.

 

[The Chad and I]

The Hawks are trying to find a KPD

Tom Barrass.

The Hawks have reportedly (taken with a grain of salt) tabled a 4 or 5 year deal for Tom Barrass who will be 29 years old in October this year. He is contracted to the Eagles until the end of 2027 (when he will be 32).

As good as he is, and as much as the Hawks need a player like him, I cannot understand why the Hawks would go after him. Especially given his injury status. This is a quote from Barrass himself.
“It was a compression fracture to my T8 (vertebrae), and I’ve wedged about five of my other vertebrae a bit shorter. It’s just something I’m going to have to manage forever. It still gives me a bit of trouble in my everyday life. It’s OK when I’m moving, but as soon as I’m static, I feel like I’ve got a broken back again. It’s a permanent thing, and it’s something that I work on from the second I wake up. I’ve got to do my mobility and get moving and find a way to come to work.”
These were the confronting words of Tom Barrass in February during an interview with 7NEWS, reflecting on the injury that ended his 2023 season after he fell awkwardly in a marking contest against Richmond and landed on his neck.”

https://thewest.com.au/sport/west-c...-red-flags-for-contract-extension-c-15554018#

Barrass got the injury playing footy and so it is not unreasonable to think a contact sport like AFL could create another impact that would end his football career (hopefully not, he seems a refreshingly honest and likeable man).
Worse for the Hawks, to get a contracted player, it will cost big time in terms of picks.

For me, the risk is not worth the reward with Barrass (197cm). If we are set on getting a KPD, throw some more money at the UFA in Josh Battle who will be 26yrs old in September this year and has no chronic injury issues. And surely he likes what he sees with the Hawks future. He may not be overly tall (193cm), but neither is Steven May (193cm). Battle is low risk in that he would be in the Hawks best 22 from the first game in 2025. And he has no history of significant injuries. He would be perfect at CHB.

… and then we wait for McCabe (197cm) to come on… which may not be too long given the poise and talent he has shown in his first couple of games at Box Hill.

I am aghast at the prosect of paying big to get Barrass now.
I did not realise his injury was that bad.

This is not worth the risk.

Even if he came as a Free Agent, I would not want to pay his huge salary for 3-4 years with these types of injury concerns.

 

[Alite]

We trust the List Management Team at Hawthorn They've earnt it. Due diligence will be done.

Agreed Tony, I am sure that initial partial due diligence has been done and that if the trade comes closer to reality, Barrass will have to undergo a full medical before negotiations with the Eagles begin. Hopefully the risk / reward is ticked off by the medicos. Personally, I’m happy with the idea of extra money, especially if Battle is off-the-table, but not the length of the deal and not with giving up “over picks” in a good draft year for the 5 to 25 group.

You and I cannot affect the outcome of the Hawk’s recruiting. But we can discuss whether we like or don’t like it. Saying you blindly trust because “they have earned it” also states that they have not made an error… which every recruiting department has done.
I am saying it would be an error to give Barrass a 4 or 5 year deal. And you are saying, in MM we trust. Is that a good summary? If not, say why.

 

[earthworms]

Let's throw the entire kitchen at battle and offer him 1M+ per season, I'm tired of always missing out on big free agents.

 

[triple treat]

If Battle has agreed on a contract to stay at the Saints then you think it would of been announced already due to all the media spotlight on it. So is it Battle is leaning on staying but the Saints are holding out (preferring the compo) or is it he simply hasn't made up his mind?

 

[kirbatron]

If Battle has agreed on a contract to stay at the Saints then you think it would of been announced already due to all the media spotlight on it. So is it Battle is leaning on staying but the Saints are holding out (preferring the compo) or is it he simply hasn't made up his mind?

sounds like it's just been formalised so early nw you'd think

 

[Iceman!]

Would be disappointing to miss out on Battle, a quality player and a free hit would have been nice. Was never going to make or break our premiership chances but definitely a better team with him in it.

 

[earthworms]

frontload and offer battle 1.5 mil for year 1

 

[KermitJagger]

The Hawks are trying to find a KPD

Tom Barrass.

The Hawks have reportedly (taken with a grain of salt) tabled a 4 or 5 year deal for Tom Barrass who will be 29 years old in October this year. He is contracted to the Eagles until the end of 2027 (when he will be 32).

As good as he is, and as much as the Hawks need a player like him, I cannot understand why the Hawks would go after him. Especially given his injury status. This is a quote from Barrass himself.
“It was a compression fracture to my T8 (vertebrae), and I’ve wedged about five of my other vertebrae a bit shorter. It’s just something I’m going to have to manage forever. It still gives me a bit of trouble in my everyday life. It’s OK when I’m moving, but as soon as I’m static, I feel like I’ve got a broken back again. It’s a permanent thing, and it’s something that I work on from the second I wake up. I’ve got to do my mobility and get moving and find a way to come to work.”
These were the confronting words of Tom Barrass in February during an interview with 7NEWS, reflecting on the injury that ended his 2023 season after he fell awkwardly in a marking contest against Richmond and landed on his neck.”

https://thewest.com.au/sport/west-c...-red-flags-for-contract-extension-c-15554018#

Barrass got the injury playing footy and so it is not unreasonable to think a contact sport like AFL could create another impact that would end his football career (hopefully not, he seems a refreshingly honest and likeable man).
Worse for the Hawks, to get a contracted player, it will cost big time in terms of picks.

For me, the risk is not worth the reward with Barrass (197cm). If we are set on getting a KPD, throw some more money at the UFA in Josh Battle who will be 26yrs old in September this year and has no chronic injury issues. And surely he likes what he sees with the Hawks future. He may not be overly tall (193cm), but neither is Steven May (193cm). Battle is low risk in that he would be in the Hawks best 22 from the first game in 2025. And he has no history of significant injuries. He would be perfect at CHB.

… and then we wait for McCabe (197cm) to come on… which may not be too long given the poise and talent he has shown in his first couple of games at Box Hill.

It has been covered in fairly decent detail in past pages, might be worth reading.

The interview with Barrass quoted in that article was in February, 6 months ago, 8 months after the injury.

Since that quote he has played a full season almost indistinguishable in quality to before he hurt his back. He didn't require surgery, he had no complications in his return to footy and was back to full training post Christmas. He has played this entire season without incident and is rated as an elite KPD.

To me, not liking the idea of getting Barrass across means that you either think that the Hawthorn medical team won't do their due dilligence and will overlook a serious medical issue that will stop the Hawks from getting their contract's worth out of him, or you don't think we're close enough to seriously challenging that having him for 3-5 years will pay off. In either of those cases we would have much bigger problems than trading for him, in the first case our medical team must be incompetent and in the second case we'd need to be much more worried about the age of Sicily, Impey and Amon given that they won't be around for the next flag.

I know the West Australian are talking about 2x first round picks, but that dishrag of a paper is purpose built to pump up West Australian players with unrealistic pricetags. It'll be Barrass for a first, or a first and small change, and that's perfect.

 

[TylerDurden]

If Battle has agreed on a contract to stay at the Saints then you think it would of been announced already due to all the media spotlight on it. So is it Battle is leaning on staying but the Saints are holding out (preferring the compo) or is it he simply hasn't made up his mind?

The media haven't latched onto it yet.

 

[Jethro!]

All the talk about trading first round picks for established players gave me the idea for a quick bit of analysis. I call it “Objective returns on first round picks: A draft and trade comparison from 2010 - 2018”. This is a comparison of where a solitary player has been dealt for either a single first round pick, or a combination of picks and “steak knife” players including a first rounder, excluding any players dealt as part of a complex multi club trades where the value of the 1st round pick or player is mitigated by other picks or players in the rotation.

The purpose of this is to judge the difference in return between first round picks when dealt for established players or taken to the draft. As not every pick has been traded for a player in that time period, the analysis will only cover those picks which have been traded as part of a player in the circumstances outlined above.

Here is the list of picks that have been dealt for a player in trade, the average of games played by players received for those picks, and the total amount of AA selections and Brownlow wins amongst those players:

Pick	Times Traded	Average Games Played	Total AA Selections	Total Brownlow Wins
2​	1​	91​	0​	0​
6​	4​	96​	5​	2​
7​	1​	94​	0​	0​
9​	2​	129​	5​	1​
10​	3​	123​	2​	0​
12​	2​	82​	2​	0​
14​	2​	94​	2​	1​
15​	3​	64​	0​	0​
16​	1​	2​	0​	0​
17​	2​	104​	1​	0​
18​	3​	83​	0​	0​
Total	24​	92​	17​	4​

A total of 24 picks have been dealt in return for players, with an average return of 92 games played, 17 total AA selections at .7 selections per player and 4 Brownlow wins.

Pick	Times Selected	Average Games Played	Total AA Selections	Total Brownlow Wins
2​	9​	133​	6​	0​
6​	9​	125​	6​	0​
7​	9​	141​	2​	1​
9​	9​	148​	2​	0​
10​	9​	81​	2​	0​
12​	9​	80​	4​	0​
14​	9​	130​	2​	0​
15​	9​	106​	0​	0​
16​	9​	89​	0​	0​
17​	9​	92​	0​	0​
18​	9​	120​	2​	0​
Total	99​	113​	26​	1​

A total of 99 players have been selected using picks matching those dealt in trades, with an average return of 113 games played, 26 total AA selections at .26 selections per player and 1 Brownlow win.

On a pure numbers basis, though on average you will get 21 games less from players acquired in trade, you're 2.7x more likely to receive an All Australian jumper from players traded in with first round picks, and 16.5x more likely to receive a Brownlow medal over that 8 season period.

There's no particular reason outside of laziness that I decided to drag in 2010 - 2018, if I could have been bothered I would have gone further out but it was getting too annoying and I gave up. I started at 2018 as it seemed a reasonable amount of time to allow for draftees to get embedded.

Conclusion - trading a late first ain't that serious, and you're more likely to get better individual seasons out of the traded player anyway which is the goal. The end.

I'd rather 80 Xavier Ellis games, 100 Clint Young games and 200 Brad Sewell games over 360 Brad Johnson games, 340 Chris Grant games or 150 Nick Holland games. Honestly, any first round pick trade that results in a Hawthorn premiership player regardless of games played is worthwhile to me.

 

[triple treat]

The media haven't latched onto it yet.

I would of thought the Saints themselves would have got the media involved, try and spin it like a major win for the club.

 

[KermitJagger]

I'd rather 80 Xavier Ellis games, 100 Clint Young games and 200 Brad Sewell games over 360 Brad Johnson games, 340 Chris Grant games or 150 Nick Holland games. Honestly, any first round pick trade that results in a Hawthorn premiership player regardless of games played is worthwhile to me.

Okay well using the same dataset you're 2x more likely to get a premiership player through trading a first round pick for a player than drafting them.

 

[Mercy Seat]

If Battle has agreed on a contract to stay at the Saints then you think it would of been announced already due to all the media spotlight on it. So is it Battle is leaning on staying but the Saints are holding out (preferring the compo) or is it he simply hasn't made up his mind?

We pretty much agreed on everything with Nash a number of weeks before it was finalised and went public. If they’ve agreed terms with Battle, it doesn’t mean it will be announced immediately.

 

[MC_9]

I would of thought the Saints themselves would have got the media involved, try and spin it like a major win for the club.

Saints board seem to think it will be announced next week.

On Pixel 6 using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Alite]

It has been covered in fairly decent detail in past pages, might be worth reading.

The interview with Barrass quoted in that article was in February, 6 months ago, 8 months after the injury.

Since that quote he has played a full season almost indistinguishable in quality to before he hurt his back. He didn't require surgery, he had no complications in his return to footy and was back to full training post Christmas. He has played this entire season without incident and is rated as an elite KPD.

To me, not liking the idea of getting Barrass across means that you either think that the Hawthorn medical team won't do their due dilligence and will overlook a serious medical issue that will stop the Hawks from getting their contract's worth out of him, or you don't think we're close enough to seriously challenging that having him for 3-5 years will pay off. In either of those cases we would have much bigger problems than trading for him, in the first case our medical team must be incompetent and in the second case we'd need to be much more worried about the age of Sicily, Impey and Amon given that they won't be around for the next flag.

I know the West Australian are talking about 2x first round picks, but that dishrag of a paper is purpose built to pump up West Australian players with unrealistic pricetags. It'll be Barrass for a first, or a first and small change, and that's perfect.

An excellent reply KermitJagger.

I am loving the Hawks rise up the ladder and if Barrass stays healthy he would undoubtedly help the Hawks in 2025, 2026 and 2027. But beyond that date is too much for my liking (happy for others to disagree).

I think this is Barrass’ last big pay day. He has asked the eagles to re-asses his wage as the eagles have a flat rate rate from Contract and do not increase the deal with increasing total player payments. This is where the Hawks can win Barrass instead of the length of contract.

 

[KermitJagger]

An excellent reply KermitJagger.

I am loving the Hawks rise up the ladder and if Barrass stays healthy he would undoubtedly help the Hawks in 2025, 2026 and 2027. But beyond that date is too much for my liking (happy for others to disagree).

I think this is Barrass’ last big pay day. He has asked the eagles to re-asses his wage as the eagles have a flat rate rate from Contract and do not increase the deal with increasing total player payments. This is where the Hawks can win Barrass instead of the length of contract.

I'm comfortable with Barrass for a short to medium term contract. As you say, we've got McCabe waiting in the wings, we've got Blanck returning from injury and at the very least Barrass buys us time to develop or acquire another key defender via free agency. I know you like Battle but I don't think he's a genuine KPP, and he looks likely to re-sign anyway.

 

[Jethro!]

Okay well using the same dataset you're 2x more likely to get a premiership player through trading a first round pick for a player than drafting them.

I'm happy with that. I guess the point was that games played doesn't equate to team success. I'd take the 30 odd Stewy Dew games for a first rounder too

 

[Alite]

I'm comfortable with Barrass for a short to medium term contract. As you say, we've got McCabe waiting in the wings, we've got Blanck returning from injury and at the very least Barrass buys us time to develop or acquire another key defender via free agency. I know you like Battle but I don't think he's a genuine KPP, and he looks likely to re-sign anyway.

I like Battle as he is a known quantity and would help free up Sic … and Battle is a pretty good player in his own right.. not great but certainly good.

I’d prefer a Buckley, Taylor, Harris or some other talent from that age group… But they are not on offer. Battle is in play (some say not).
I would have loved a 2022 Barrass …. but a few years older Barrass I think matters for the Hawks.

Or should we look inward. If Rory Lobb can transition into becoming a KPD at the age of 31, could Ramsden do the same given his athletic ability and the ever increasing height of the tall KP players in the AFL.

Like you I am comfortAble with Barrass for a short to medium term contact. Just not 4 to 5 years.

 

[Nugett]

So a future 4th will now be a future future 4th

 

[Howe Amazing]

If we lose on Battle, McCabe with a preseason will be exciting next season

 

[Platten44]

We pretty much agreed on everything with Nash a number of weeks before it was finalised and went public. If they’ve agreed terms with Battle, it doesn’t mean it will be announced immediately.

Nash himself said he made his final decision on Monday. The media team filmed stuff on Tuesday and it was announced early Wednesday morning.

 

[Platten44]

Tom Mitchell at the end of 2022 was a better player than Barrass is now and we got minimal value in a trade. Jordan Lewis

Jordan Lewis

Age

38

Ht

186cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

D/M

Career

Season

Last 5

D

23.5

5star

K

12.1

4star

HB

11.5

5star

M

5.5

5star

T

2.7

4star

MG

310.5

4star

No current season stats available

D

15.0

4star

K

6.8

3star

HB

8.2

5star

M

4.8

5star

T

2.8

5star

similar in 2016. Collingwood’s 2024 2nd and our 2025 2nd is a fair trade. West Coast could then look to trade for Gold Coasts 1st rounder.

 

[Alite]

If we lose on Battle, McCabe with a preseason will be exciting next season

both would be awesome

 

[TONYC3163]

Agreed Tony, I am sure that initial partial due diligence has been done and that if the trade comes closer to reality, Barrass will have to undergo a full medical before negotiations with the Eagles begin. Hopefully the risk / reward is ticked off by the medicos. Personally, I’m happy with the idea of extra money, especially if Battle is off-the-table, but not the length of the deal and not with giving up “over picks” in a good draft year for the 5 to 25 group.

You and I cannot affect the outcome of the Hawk’s recruiting. But we can discuss whether we like or don’t like it. Saying you blindly trust because “they have earned it” also states that they have not made an error… which every recruiting department has done.
I am saying it would be an error to give Barrass a 4 or 5 year deal. And you are saying, in MM we trust. Is that a good summary? If not, say why.

I did not state 'they have not made an error' Yes, the List management knows much more than the BF posters.