KermitJagger
Professional Thread Derailer
- May 17, 2017
- 16,063
- 52,255
- AFL Club
- Hawthorn
All the talk about trading first round picks for established players gave me the idea for a quick bit of analysis. I call it “Objective returns on first round picks: A draft and trade comparison from 2010 - 2018”. This is a comparison of where a solitary player has been dealt for either a single first round pick, or a combination of picks and “steak knife” players including a first rounder, excluding any players dealt as part of a complex multi club trades where the value of the 1st round pick or player is mitigated by other picks or players in the rotation.
The purpose of this is to judge the difference in return between first round picks when dealt for established players or taken to the draft. As not every pick has been traded for a player in that time period, the analysis will only cover those picks which have been traded as part of a player in the circumstances outlined above.
Here is the list of picks that have been dealt for a player in trade, the average of games played by players received for those picks, and the total amount of AA selections and Brownlow wins amongst those players:
A total of 24 picks have been dealt in return for players, with an average return of 92 games played, 17 total AA selections at .7 selections per player and 4 Brownlow wins.
A total of 99 players have been selected using picks matching those dealt in trades, with an average return of 113 games played, 26 total AA selections at .26 selections per player and 1 Brownlow win.
On a pure numbers basis, though on average you will get 21 games less from players acquired in trade, you're 2.7x more likely to receive an All Australian jumper from players traded in with first round picks, and 16.5x more likely to receive a Brownlow medal over that 8 season period.
There's no particular reason outside of laziness that I decided to drag in 2010 - 2018, if I could have been bothered I would have gone further out but it was getting too annoying and I gave up. I started at 2018 as it seemed a reasonable amount of time to allow for draftees to get embedded.
Conclusion - trading a late first ain't that serious, and you're more likely to get better individual seasons out of the traded player anyway which is the goal. The end.
The purpose of this is to judge the difference in return between first round picks when dealt for established players or taken to the draft. As not every pick has been traded for a player in that time period, the analysis will only cover those picks which have been traded as part of a player in the circumstances outlined above.
Here is the list of picks that have been dealt for a player in trade, the average of games played by players received for those picks, and the total amount of AA selections and Brownlow wins amongst those players:
| Pick | Times Traded | Average Games Played | Total AA Selections | Total Brownlow Wins |
2 | 1 | 91 | 0 | 0 |
6 | 4 | 96 | 5 | 2 |
7 | 1 | 94 | 0 | 0 |
9 | 2 | 129 | 5 | 1 |
10 | 3 | 123 | 2 | 0 |
12 | 2 | 82 | 2 | 0 |
14 | 2 | 94 | 2 | 1 |
15 | 3 | 64 | 0 | 0 |
16 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
17 | 2 | 104 | 1 | 0 |
18 | 3 | 83 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 24 | 92 | 17 | 4 |
A total of 24 picks have been dealt in return for players, with an average return of 92 games played, 17 total AA selections at .7 selections per player and 4 Brownlow wins.
| Pick | Times Selected | Average Games Played | Total AA Selections | Total Brownlow Wins |
2 | 9 | 133 | 6 | 0 |
6 | 9 | 125 | 6 | 0 |
7 | 9 | 141 | 2 | 1 |
9 | 9 | 148 | 2 | 0 |
10 | 9 | 81 | 2 | 0 |
12 | 9 | 80 | 4 | 0 |
14 | 9 | 130 | 2 | 0 |
15 | 9 | 106 | 0 | 0 |
16 | 9 | 89 | 0 | 0 |
17 | 9 | 92 | 0 | 0 |
18 | 9 | 120 | 2 | 0 |
| Total | 99 | 113 | 26 | 1 |
A total of 99 players have been selected using picks matching those dealt in trades, with an average return of 113 games played, 26 total AA selections at .26 selections per player and 1 Brownlow win.
On a pure numbers basis, though on average you will get 21 games less from players acquired in trade, you're 2.7x more likely to receive an All Australian jumper from players traded in with first round picks, and 16.5x more likely to receive a Brownlow medal over that 8 season period.
There's no particular reason outside of laziness that I decided to drag in 2010 - 2018, if I could have been bothered I would have gone further out but it was getting too annoying and I gave up. I started at 2018 as it seemed a reasonable amount of time to allow for draftees to get embedded.
Conclusion - trading a late first ain't that serious, and you're more likely to get better individual seasons out of the traded player anyway which is the goal. The end.
