List Mgmt. 2024 List Mismanagement and Trading Part 2

[Big Dub]

Just stumbled on this discussion and while I agree with most of what you guys from over the border are saying about what would happen in a trade for NWM next year (if he was to request a trade to you guys- ie, there’s pretty much no way known you would trade the guy you get at pick 4 this year, and that because he’s out of contract, we’d probably get a pick around 8 for him), but I think you’re underestimating how good he already is. And not taking into account the fact that most guys in their 4th year are considerably better than they were in their 3rd.

A few facts.

-He’s just had back-to-back top 5 B&F finishes (at a team that’s won as many games as they’ve lost across those two years, playing finals in one of them) at the ages of 20 and 21.

That suggests he’s more than just a talented guy who’s shown some promise. He’s already one of his teams very best players. Consistently.

-He received 35 coaches votes this year.

To put that into perspective, despite most of their teams winning more games than his (giving them more golden opportunities for votes) here are the numbers of a few similar types.

Luke Ryan (AA)- 24 votes
Dan Houston (AA)- 26 votes
Jordan Clark (AA squad)- 30 votes
Nick Blakey (AA squad)- 40 votes
Lachie Whitfield (AA)- 41 votes
Dayne Zorko (AA)- 43 votes
Jack Sinclair (AA squad)- 44 votes

All of the above would suggest that Nas (with 35 coaches votes) could very very easily have been in the AA squad this year.

Despite being much younger than most of them and 3 years younger than the two youngest. In fact, that’s probably why he missed.

He’s miles ahead of where most of them were at the same age. The only one that would have been within cooee at the same age was Whitfield.

-It was reported in June that Champion Data rated him the no.1 field kick in the league, ahead of the likes of Gulden (2), Dale (3), Blakey (5), Zorko (6) and Jordan (10).

He’s already a genuine weapon who can cut teams up and yet he’s played just 3 seasons of footy.

If he improves the same sort of amount in his 4th year as most do at that age, he’s a dead-cert to be in the AA squad next year at a bare minimum.

I don't disagree with what you say, and really like NWM as a player.

I just don't think that the Crows' needs make us the club to pay you what he's worth.

Your best bet is to pay him too much to leave. I also don't think that he's the flight risk that your compatriot assumes that he is.

 

[Mutineer]

Just stumbled on this discussion and while I agree with most of what you guys from over the border are saying about what would happen in a trade for NWM next year (if he was to request a trade to you guys- ie, there’s pretty much no way known you would trade the guy you get at pick 4 this year, and that because he’s out of contract, we’d probably get a pick around 8 for him), but I think you’re underestimating how good he already is. And not taking into account the fact that most guys in their 4th year are considerably better than they were in their 3rd.

A few facts.

-He’s just had back-to-back top 5 B&F finishes (at a team that’s won as many games as they’ve lost across those two years, playing finals in one of them) at the ages of 20 and 21.

That suggests he’s more than just a talented guy who’s shown some promise. He’s already one of his teams very best players. Consistently.

-He received 35 coaches votes this year.

To put that into perspective, despite most of their teams winning more games than his (giving them more golden opportunities for votes) here are the numbers of a few similar types.

Luke Ryan (AA)- 24 votes
Dan Houston (AA)- 26 votes
Jordan Clark (AA squad)- 30 votes
Nick Blakey (AA squad)- 40 votes
Lachie Whitfield (AA)- 41 votes
Dayne Zorko (AA)- 43 votes
Jack Sinclair (AA squad)- 44 votes

All of the above would suggest that Nas (with 35 coaches votes) could very very easily have been in the AA squad this year.

Despite being much younger than most of them and 3 years younger than the two youngest. In fact, that’s probably why he missed.

He’s miles ahead of where most of them were at the same age. The only one that would have been within cooee at the same age was Whitfield.

-It was reported in June that Champion Data rated him the no.1 field kick in the league, ahead of the likes of Gulden (2), Dale (3), Blakey (5), Zorko (6) and Jordan (10).

He’s already a genuine weapon who can cut teams up and yet he’s played just 3 seasons of footy.

If he improves the same sort of amount in his 4th year as most do at that age, he’s a dead-cert to be in the AA squad next year at a bare minimum (if he remains at half back).

None of that changes anything if he hasn't put ink to paper by mid 2025.

 

[Chezzel]

My way too early predictions of jumper numbers and draft picks:

9 - Sid Draper (Taken at pick 4)
17 - Tyler Welsh FS (Scott’s number)
18 - Isaac Cumming

13

Isaac Cumming

Age

26

Ht

188cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

D/M

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.2

3star

K

6.0

2star

HB

5.2

4star

M

2.4

3star

T

2.3

4star

MG

158.0

2star

D

9.5

2star

K

5.0

2star

HB

4.5

3star

M

1.5

2star

T

2.5

3star

MG

158.0

3star

D

10.6

3star

K

5.6

3star

HB

5.0

4star

M

2.8

3star

T

2.6

4star

25 - Alex Neal-Bullen

30

Alex Neal-bullen

Age

28

Ht

182cm

Wt

80kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

15.3

4star

K

8.7

3star

HB

6.6

4star

M

2.8

3star

T

4.1

5star

G

0.8

4star

D

10.5

3star

K

6.0

2star

HB

4.5

3star

M

2.0

2star

T

1.5

2star

G

1.5

5star

D

10.0

3star

K

5.0

2star

HB

5.0

4star

M

1.4

2star

T

2.0

4star

G

1.0

4star

34 - James Peatling
44 - Jack Hayes (Rookie pick 4, ruck depth can’t hurt and he’s SA)


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[Vader]

My way of week prediction of jumper numbers and draft picks:

9 - Sid Draper (Taken at pick 4)
17 - Tyler Welsh FS (Scott’s number)
18 - Isaac Cumming
25 - Alex Neal-Bullen
34 - James Peatling
44 - Jack Hayes (Rookie pick 4, ruck depth can’t hurt and he’s SA)

How are we making a pick in the rookie draft, given that we won't have any list vacancies?

** I'm not averse to picking a ruckman in the RD, and Jack Hayes is probably as good an option as anyone (I honestly have no idea about him). The problem is that we only have 2 list vacancies, which will be filled by pick #4 and Welsh.

 

[Mutineer]

My way of week prediction of jumper numbers and draft picks:

9 - Sid Draper (Taken at pick 4)
17 - Tyler Welsh FS (Scott’s number)
18 - Isaac Cumming
25 - Alex Neal-Bullen
34 - James Peatling
44 - Jack Hayes (Rookie pick 4, ruck depth can’t hurt and he’s SA)


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

List is full, Hayes ain't an option.

 

[Captain Furious]

Just stumbled on this discussion and while I agree with most of what you guys from over the border are saying about what would happen in a trade for NWM next year (if he was to request a trade to you guys- ie, there’s pretty much no way known you would trade the guy you get at pick 4 this year, and that because he’s out of contract, we’d probably get a pick around 8 for him), but I think you’re underestimating how good he already is. And not taking into account the fact that most guys in their 4th year are considerably better than they were in their 3rd.

A few facts.

-He’s just had back-to-back top 5 B&F finishes (at a team that’s won as many games as they’ve lost across those two years, playing finals in one of them) at the ages of 20 and 21.

That suggests he’s more than just a talented guy who’s shown some promise. He’s already one of his teams very best players. Consistently.

-He received 35 coaches votes this year.

To put that into perspective, despite most of their teams winning more games than his (giving them more golden opportunities for votes) here are the numbers of a few similar types.

Luke Ryan (AA)- 24 votes
Dan Houston (AA)- 26 votes
Jordan Clark (AA squad)- 30 votes
Nick Blakey (AA squad)- 40 votes
Lachie Whitfield (AA)- 41 votes
Dayne Zorko (AA)- 43 votes
Jack Sinclair (AA squad)- 44 votes

All of the above would suggest that Nas (with 35 coaches votes) could very very easily have been in the AA squad this year.

Despite being much younger than most of them and 3 years younger than the two youngest. In fact, that’s probably why he missed.

He’s miles ahead of where most of them were at the same age. The only one that would have been within cooee at the same age was Whitfield.

-It was reported in June that Champion Data rated him the no.1 field kick in the league, ahead of the likes of Gulden (2), Dale (3), Blakey (5), Zorko (6) and Jordan (10).

He’s already a genuine weapon who can cut teams up and yet he’s played just 3 seasons of footy.

If he improves the same sort of amount in his 4th year as most do at that age, he’s a dead-cert to be in the AA squad next year at a bare minimum (if he remains at half back).

This is all well and good but also...so what? You're implying that players get traded for what their value is, which clearly isn't the case. We just saw Caleb Daniel get traded for 25, Bailey Smith for 17 and Dan Rioli for 6. Their worth is probably more like Smith 6, Rioli 17 and Daniel 50. But the combination of factors aded up to what it was.

If a player is out of contract and they want to get somewhere, they pretty much always do, generally for unders. Every club has to deal with it. Saints will continue to be a making up the numbers club if they don't lose their victim mentality.

 

[crows dude]

How are we making a pick in the rookie draft, given that we won't have any list vacancies?

** I'm not averse to picking a ruckman in the RD, and Jack Hayes is probably as good an option as anyone (I honestly have no idea about him). The problem is that we only have 2 list vacancies, which will be filled by pick #4 and Welsh.

By delisting Burgess and upgrading Keane

 

[Mutineer]

By delisting Burgess and upgrading Keane

That ain't happening, I don't know why people keep running this up the flagpole, and even if we did I highly doubt Jack Hayes would be the target.

 

[Vader]

By delisting Burgess and upgrading Keane

The Keane upgrade needs to happen anyway, just to meet the AFL's minimum draft selections. Burgess isn't going to be delisted outright.

 

[Vader]

Tomorrow is 31st October, which is the due date for List Lodgement 1.

As far as I can ascertain, the following has to happen by this date:

• All player delistings must be completed.
• F/S & Academy Bidding Nominations lodged.
• Out of Contract Listed players Draft Nominations close.
• Rookie Upgrades lodged.

So, in the next 36 hours we can expect to see the club making the following announcements:

• 1 rookie upgraded (probably Keane).
• 2 senior list contracted players delisted, with a commitment to re-draft them in the RD

The following moves are possible, but less likely:

• A 2nd rookie upgraded
• A 3rd and possibly 4th senior list contracted player delisted, with a commitment to re-draft them in the RD.

Upgrading a 2nd rookie would mean that we're only able to make 1 selection in the ND (i.e. pick #4), and that we are planning on taking Welsh in the RD.

 

[Mutineer]

Tomorrow is 31st October, which is the due date for List Lodgement 1.

As far as I can ascertain, the following has to happen by this date:

• All player delistings must be completed.
• F/S & Academy Bidding Nominations lodged.
• Out of Contract Listed players Draft Nominations close.
• Rookie Upgrades lodged.

So, in the next 36 hours we can expect to see the club making the following announcements:

• 1 rookie upgraded (probably Keane).
• 2 senior list contracted players delisted, with a commitment to re-draft them in the RD

The following moves are possible, but less likely:

• A 2nd rookie upgraded
• A 3rd and possibly 4th senior list contracted player delisted, with a commitment to re-draft them in the RD.

Upgrading a 2nd rookie would mean that we're only able to make 1 selection in the ND (i.e. pick #4), and that we are planning on taking Welsh in the RD.

I honestly believe a team may bid on Welsh at some point, probably later in the draft, of course the club would be hoping Welsh slipped through to the rookie draft but I have my doubts he's slipping that far without a club keeping us honest.

 

[Vader]

I honestly believe a team may bid on Welsh at some point, probably later in the draft, of course the club would be hoping Welsh slipped through to the rookie draft but I have my doubts he's slipping that far without a club keeping us honest.

I'm definitely not arguing with you on this one.

I've said that I think that option is less likely, and in reality I think it's far less likely. Presumably they wouldn't go down that path unless they were reasonably certain that he'd make it though the ND & PSD without being selected. Mostly I'm just pointing out that the possibility exists of going down that route.

 

[Chezzel]

List is full, Hayes ain't an option.

Trueee, my bad scratch the rookie pick then, I was just going off how many spots went out. Sloane was on the inactive list though hey?

Gollant
Hamill
Himmelberg
McHenry
Parnel
Sloane


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[crows dude]

Trueee, my bad scratch the rookie pick then, I was just going off how many spots went out. Sloane was on the inactive list though hey?

Gollant
Hamill
Himmelberg
McHenry
Parnel
Sloane


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

We have on Senior List - 37 and one vacant
1 - JOnes
2 - Keays
3 - Berry
4 - Murphy
5 - Crouch
6 - Curtin
7 - Thilthorpe
8 - Rachele
9 - Pedlar
10 - Edwards
11 - Dawson
12 - Walker
13 - Soligo
14 - Cook
15 - Michalanney
16 - Taylor
17 - Hinge
18 - Burgess
19 - Ryan
20 - Rankine
21 - Worrell
22 - Schoenberg
23 - Nankervis
24 - N Murray
25 - Laird
26 - Milera
27 - Dowling
28 - Fogarty
29 - Smith
30 - Sholl
31 - Bond
32 - BUtts
33 - O'Brien
34 - Strachan
35 - Neale Bullen
36 - Peatling
37 - Cumming
38 Vacant


Rookie - We have 3 so one vacant
1 - Borlase
2 - T Murray
3 - Keane
4 - Vacant

Rookie B
1 - Gallagher
2 - Vacant
3 - Vacant

 

[Carmo]

Trueee, my bad scratch the rookie pick then, I was just going off how many spots went out. Sloane was on the inactive list though hey?

Gollant
Hamill
Himmelberg
McHenry
Parnel
Sloane


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

Four ins since end of last year, Toby Murray in MSD is where you might be coming unstuck.

 

[Danger in Texas]

Trueee, my bad scratch the rookie pick then, I was just going off how many spots went out. Sloane was on the inactive list though hey?

Gollant
Hamill
Himmelberg
McHenry
Parnel
Sloane


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

Yeah Turray basically took Sloane’s list spot

 

[aussierulesrules]

None of that changes anything if he hasn't put ink to paper by mid 2025.

Agree, which is why I didn’t suggest it did, and largely agreed with what you guys were saying about how it would likely pan out, if he did in fact request a trade to you (or Port).

 

[Chezzel]

The whole rookie list spots and full list makes a lot more sense to me now, I 100% missed the Toby Murray pick up, thank you to those who clarified.

I stand by my numbers and draft predictions barring the Jack Hayes rookie pick

(Although in an ideal world I’m having Hayes on the list over Burgess if it were possible)


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com