If there’s a bid on Welsh before pick 12 I’ll eat my hat. Tactics or no tactics, he’s nowhere near the top 10 in this draft pool at this point, and history shows that father-sons drop further than expected more often than not. Max was a rare exception to this rule.
I’d say Welsh falling outside the top 25 is more far more likely than a bid before pick 10.
Most likely landing spot: right around that Max range (15-20). The only way that changes if he starts kicking bags of 4-5 goals in the SANFL, which I suppose isn’t impossible, but yeah, Mick Godden. Lol.
As for Draper, personally I would rather any of Jagga Smith, Josh Smillie or Finn O’Sullivan for our list than Sid. Sid I would have on par with Christian Moraes, with Moraes firming as a slightly better list fit for mine. Not saying Sid is a poor option by any stretch, but he’s absolutely not going inside the top 5 at this stage, and might fall to around 9-12, especially if there are any flight risk concerns from the VIC clubs.
I agree that moving up to a top 5 pick (if we even need to move up because we’re still a genuine chance of finishing in the bottom 5 at this stage) would be nice for us in order to guarantee a top line mid, but I’d be pulling the trigger on Jagga there rather than Sid without even needing to think twice. Smillie looks a lock to go pick 1 and I just don’t think we’ll ever see a club trade pick 1 - there’s too much fear surrounding the consequences, plus he’s the only type of mid North don’t already have. O’Sullivan is by far the most likely to go at pick 2 and he’s a great fit at Richmond - they aren’t trading that pick in a million years. An Ashcroft bid comes somewhere in the top 6 to push everyone down a spot. The rest is up for debate and some teams will be prioritising talls over mids.
Port have absolutely no way of trading up above where our first pick will fall to take Draper or any other player for that matter, without giving up a superstar. Nobody will value Port’s 2025 first rounder at better than pick 18-20 value in the 2024 draft, and Port’s first 2024 pick is in the mid 30s (their own second rounder). Even combining their best picks in 2024 and 2025 would get them maybe to pick 14-15 at best in a trade. They have nobody of value that they’ll be looking to offload in a trade either. Port will be active in the free agent market and look likely to land Perryman, but other than that it’s probably a quiet offseason coming for them. Much quieter than ours needs to be.
I keep hearing the same things about Welsh. Many on hear have different views so I hope they are right. What's looking obvious is our first pick won't get eaten up in a bid like many suggested.
We have to pick the best player but it is super appealing to pick Draper as he is local.