Preview 2024 National Draft Preview Thread

[Colby Cheer Squad]

This Kako bullfukkery from the AFL has just killed any desire I have for trading down our first round pick.

 

[Colby Cheer Squad]

This AFL admin is the best knee jerkers l've ever seen...from possibly limiting dvi to 3rd round to possible NGA bids at any point - how the heck does any club meant to plan for unseen draft rule changes!!!
Utterly and beyond useless!!

Next thing will be changing draft rules midway through draft night.

 

[giantroo]

How Essendon could benefit from the rule that gave Jamarra to the Dogs; Cameron’s three-match ban stands

Charlie Cameron has failed in his bid to overturn a three-match ban for rough conduct, with the AFL arguing he should have released West Coast co-captain Liam Duggan from a tackle instead of going to ground.

www.theage.com.au

How Essendon could benefit from the rule that gave Jamarra to the Dogs; Cameron’s three-match ban stands​

By Jake Niall and Peter Ryan​

Updated July 16, 2024 — 8.01pmfirst published at 3.10pm


The rule that allowed star forward Jamarra Ugle-Hagan to join the Western Bulldogs and Collingwood to secure now premiership defender Isaac Quaynor

3

Isaac Quaynor

Age

24

Ht

180cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.7

4star

K

6.7

3star

HB

8.0

5star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.7

4star

MG

244.0

4star

D

14.7

4star

K

6.7

3star

HB

8.0

4star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.7

4star

MG

244.0

4star

D

14.7

4star

K

6.7

3star

HB

8.0

5star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.7

5star

MG

244.0

4star

is set to be reinstated in a less-lenient form, club CEOs were told on Tuesday at an AFL meeting in Perth.

And the first beneficiary could be Essendon, who have exciting Vic Metro goalkicker Isaac Kako set to graduate from their Next Generation Academy program ahead of this year’s draft.

Kako’s parents were born in Iraq and the youngster who shone in the AFL’s under-18 national championships is bolting up draft boards and is considered a top-20 prospect.

Under the existing rule that was changed after Ugle-Hagan joined the Bulldogs and Quaynor joined Collingwood, clubs did not have priority access to their NGA graduates unless they were available after pick 40.

That rule, which was gradually introduced before the 2021 national draft, meant Melbourne did not have access to talented defender Mac Andrew, despite him graduating from their NGA. Instead, he was available to all clubs, with the Suns nabbing him at pick No.5 in the 2021 national draft. Andrew is one of the game’s most promising young players.

Hawthorn picked St Kilda’s NGA graduate Cam Mackenzie with pick seven in the 2022 national draft, but the Saints secured Mitch Owens and Marcus Windhager via their NGA in the 2021 national draft.

St Kilda also picked West Coast NGA graduate Lance Collard with pick 28 in last year’s national draft, while Collingwood nabbed Hawthorn academy graduate Tew Jiath, brother of Changkuoth, with pick 37.


Neither the Eagles nor the Hawks were able to match the respective bids under the NGA rules.
However, a rule change would enable the Bombers to draft Kako at any stage if they rated him the best player at that pick.


A senior club official, who wished to remain anonymous because the rule was not in place, pointed out that, while clubs would get access to their NGA graduate under a rule change, they would have to pay a much higher price at the draft to match an opposition bid for their player than the Bulldogs or Collingwood had to when they secured Ugle-Hagan and Quaynor.

The AFL Commission would need to approve the proposed rule change in August, according to two sources in the Perth meeting who confirmed the plans but preferred to remain anonymous while discussions continued.

The AFL has been concerned with the decline in the number of players of Indigenous heritage being drafted in recent seasons, with clubs saying the rules and the AFL’s development programs were not giving them the incentive to invest in regions and develop players who might end up at other clubs.

The AFL is also keen to have development programs in place for young people with parents born in countries other than Australia who may not otherwise play Australian rules.
The CEOs meeting in Perth is also expected to deal with fixture issues on Wednesday, while funding arrangements and competitive balance have also been topics of discussion.

 

[Merlin007]

Next thing will be changing draft rules midway through draft night.

that approach works ok for the actual rules of the game, so why not everything else?

 

[ChairmanZia]

when was the last time a (say) top 5 pick had a poor national championships?

Smillie under-performed - it doesn't matter how tall he is

Again, im picking player based on how they fit our club and not what a bunch numbers say.

If stats mean anything then jack watts would have been a generational talent.

 

[shinboner magic]

This Kako bullfukkery from the AFL has just killed any desire I have for trading down our first round pick.

We just bid on him at 3 -make them pay

 

[giantroo]

Hopefully this part means you must use picks in the same round to match any bid.

A senior club official, who wished to remain anonymous because the rule was not in place, pointed out that, while clubs would get access to their NGA graduate under a rule change, they would have to pay a much higher price at the draft to match an opposition bid for their player than the Bulldogs or Collingwood had to when they secured Ugle-Hagan and Quaynor.

 

[giantroo]

1	Josh Smillie
2	Finn O'Sullivan
3	Jagga Smith
4	Levi Ashcroft
5	Sam Lalor
6	Luke Trainor
7	Leonardo Lombard
8	Sid Draper
9	Bo Allan
10	Murphy Reid
11	Taj Hotton
12	Xavier Lindsay
13	Christian Moraes
14	Samuel Marshall
15	Joe Berry
16	Jack Whitlock
17	Tom Gross
18	Matt Whitlock
19	Harry Armstrong
20	Isaac Kako
21	Jobe Shanahan
22	Tobie Travaglia
23	Harry O'Farrell
24	Noah Mraz
25	Harvey Langford
26	Harrison Oliver
27	Alex Dodson
28	Alix Tauru
29	Cooper Hynes
30	Logan Smith

 

[Makeshift Park]

Has there been a kid come out of the NGAs who wasn’t already established in the development pathways?

True.

I get they want clubs to spend more money on underrepresented demographics, but introducing this rule to effect this draft doesn’t help attract diverse populations to AFL, it just benefits Essendon.

 

[shinboner magic]

Hopefully this part means you must use picks in the same round to match any bid.

A senior club official, who wished to remain anonymous because the rule was not in place, pointed out that, while clubs would get access to their NGA graduate under a rule change, they would have to pay a much higher price at the draft to match an opposition bid for their player than the Bulldogs or Collingwood had to when they secured Ugle-Hagan and Quaynor.

So if they have pick 10 they can trade it with the premiers and get pick 18 plus something else.

The divide is only going to get wider

 

[hoffseason gains 01]

Hopefully this part means you must use picks in the same round to match any bid.

A senior club official, who wished to remain anonymous because the rule was not in place, pointed out that, while clubs would get access to their NGA graduate under a rule change, they would have to pay a much higher price at the draft to match an opposition bid for their player than the Bulldogs or Collingwood had to when they secured Ugle-Hagan and Quaynor.

Last thing I had seen was that picks before 20 were going to be assigned greater points value and after 40 no points value (and probably no discount).

I.e.

If there was a Daicos, Collingwood would have had to trade for a BUNCH of second rounders or trade back into the first round / would’ve had to pre-plan for it and not trade their first - meaning they would have had to use pick 2 on Daicos. However what it opens up for is - say Collingwood has Pick 2, they can trade that to another team for a top 10 pick and a F1 for example and still get Daicos. But if Daicos isn’t bid at 2 or before, and they don’t trade back they’d have to acquire more capital.

So in practice this year - Kako gets bid on around Pick 10, Bombers have say pick 13, they’d have to either trade back for not a heap of value or pick Kako straight up (perfect for them BTW). Gold Coast would be perfectly positioned to pick Lombard AND someone else if not 2 more good players at say 8 & 20. Whereas Brisbane may have to sacrifice Marshall depending on where he is bid on.

I think it’s a reasonably fair rule with overall mutual benefit, however, of course a team like us has a much worse zone than everyone else.
If we get NT though, that would be massive, any good NT player is automatically a roo.

Could be wrong in the assessment though and as a caveat, no ITK, just various comments I’ve heard / seen.

 

[Shermanator]

That's a pass (no thanks) from me..

Agree. I think Draper, Reid (both will be guns), Smith and Lalor are ahead of him for mids.

I kinda liked Berry more anyway. Come at me.

He was very good in the final game. That left peg is lethal..

 

[So You Think]

And Sanders goes to the dogs who directly benefited from the initial/(now same) rule in 2020 to secure JUH before changing the rule.

They’ve also picked up Sam Darcy, Rhylee West and Croft with F&S discounted picks.

Its a joke

I reckon that we should have got compo for TT as well.

 

[shinboner magic]

We probably weren’t going to pick kako anyway

 

[ansonholt]

Apologies if this has already been posted. An excellent analysis of Smillie as a big-bodied mid.

 

[Harris 10]

We probably weren’t going to pick kako anyway

True, but part of me still wants us to bid on him with our first just to f over *

 

[chubbspeterson]

Apologies if this has already been posted. An excellent analysis of Smillie as a big-bodied mid.

Interesting analysis. I wonder if Harvey Langford at 190cm or Bo Allen at 191cm might have a bit more explosiveness than Smillie. Smilie definitely has a lot of potential upside.

 

[ohmygewd]

Looking at this draft pool...might be a great year to have a bunch of second round picks?

GC have such a strong hand 7,8 then 20,27 & 32.
Freo with 10,13,16 & 25 depends on which ex-WA player they are hunting with those 1st rounders.

Makes you wonder if we split pick 2 & 21 + F2 to exchange for 7,20, 27 & 32 from GC?
7 - Langford or Allan
20 - Joe Berry ..if Taj Hotton is strangely still here, where do l sign.
27 - Shanahan or Armstrong.
32 - Matt Whitlock.
39 - Lachie Jacques.
57 - River Stevens.

 

[Sphynx]

****ing hell.

I can’t believe that decision.

It effectively means Both WA and SA clubs have matching rights on every aboriginal footballer to come out of the states.

They can Cat B every single undrafted aboriginal draftee also.

West Coats eligible NGA list has about 100 names on it every season.

 

[hoffseason gains 01]

Looking at this draft pool...might be a great year to have a bunch of second round picks?

GC have such a strong hand 7,8 then 20,27 & 32.
Freo with 10,13,16 & 25 depends on which ex-WA player they are hunting with those 1st rounders.

Makes you wonder if we split pick 2 & 21 + F2 to exchange for 7,20, 27 & 32 from GC?
7 - Langford or Allan
20 - Joe Berry ..if Taj Hotton is strangely still here, where do l sign.
27 - Shanahan or Armstrong.
32 - Matt Whitlock.
39 - Lachie Jacques.
57 - River Stevens.

Love it

 

[LB2Snake]

Looking at this draft pool...might be a great year to have a bunch of second round picks?

GC have such a strong hand 7,8 then 20,27 & 32.
Freo with 10,13,16 & 25 depends on which ex-WA player they are hunting with those 1st rounders.

Makes you wonder if we split pick 2 & 21 + F2 to exchange for 7,20, 27 & 32 from GC?
7 - Langford or Allan
20 - Joe Berry ..if Taj Hotton is strangely still here, where do l sign.
27 - Shanahan or Armstrong.
32 - Matt Whitlock.
39 - Lachie Jacques.
57 - River Stevens.

I’d want 7 AND 8 for 2 and 21 at a minimum. Still think that’s a bargain for GC

 

[roos 10]

I’d want 7 AND 8 for 2 and 21 at a minimum. Still think that’s a bargain for GC

2/21 for 7/8/27
Would be nice

 

[Junk yard]

Looking at this draft pool...might be a great year to have a bunch of second round picks?

GC have such a strong hand 7,8 then 20,27 & 32.
Freo with 10,13,16 & 25 depends on which ex-WA player they are hunting with those 1st rounders.

Makes you wonder if we split pick 2 & 21 + F2 to exchange for 7,20, 27 & 32 from GC?
7 - Langford or Allan
20 - Joe Berry ..if Taj Hotton is strangely still here, where do l sign.
27 - Shanahan or Armstrong.
32 - Matt Whitlock.
39 - Lachie Jacques.
57 - River Stevens.

No stand out mids, FOS was unlucky to not be able to show his potential. Any one of the top 30 could be the best of this class, there's no daicos/sheezel/wardlaw/JHF but it's not a weak draft, Freo have the whip hand! I don't think anyone's giving up multiple firsts for a top 3 pick. Metro v country game was insane, the highest quality game I've seen at a 18s carnival, kid's standing up everywhere. The best three kids could be taken after ten.

 

[The Talent Scout]

lets just hope FOS is more Wardlaw than Moir

Trust me Fart, Finn's a jet, hope isn't needed on this one. I have read that he might slip to pick 4/5 , well, all I can say to that is LDU all over again! When recruiters have watched these boys in u15s and so on people have to understand that one game like that is nothing, lets consider the facts, he's had two hand injuries and missed a fair chunk of footy, one a little bit more worse than the other, he came into that game underdone and I already had my say about what to expect, but people reacted exactly how I thought they would with some saying he shouldn't have played and so on and so on.

Lastly, just my opinion but Finn in a way is like Sam Walsh, an elite runner both ways, I could say wait till he gets a lot fitter and plays more games but for me that is a non issue, I know how good he is, he doesn't need to prove anything and I'm quite sure a lot of the recruiters would feel the same way just as there would be a couple of recruiters that might slip him down the order but I would be very surprised to say the least.

 

[Junk yard]

Trust me Fart, Finn's a jet, hope isn't needed on this one. I have read that he might slip to pick 4/5 , well, all I can say to that is LDU all over again! When recruiters have watched these boys in u15s and so on people have to understand that one game like that is nothing, lets consider the facts, he's had two hand injuries and missed a fair chunk of footy, one a little bit more worse than the other, he came into that game underdone and I already had my say about what to expect, but people reacted exactly how I thought they would with some saying he shouldn't have played and so on and so on.

Lastly, just my opinion but Finn in a way is like Sam Walsh, an elite runner both ways, I could say wait till he gets a lot fitter and plays more games but for me that is a non issue, I know how good he is, he doesn't need to prove anything and I'm quite sure a lot of the recruiters would feel the same way just as there would be a couple of recruiters that might slip him down the order but I would be very surprised to say the least.

Hope you're right and I hope we pick him, smiles I'm not sold on and jagga will be good but he's got some limitations. I've got no idea about FOS's athletic profile and I'm not sure we'll get a good look at it pre draft. I believe his injuries have not been ones for concern. The one caveat I do have is he looked terrible in the 18s final, I'd rather him have not played he was so underdone. I feel like he might slip outside the five and he could be the best of the lot but this is like no other recent draft and the best could be anywhere in the first round.