Analysis 2024 National Draft

[Aphrodite]

Broadcast Guide - Live Draft ...

1st Round tonight (20th Nov) from 7.00PM
2nd Round tomorrow night (21st Nov) from 7.00PM

FoxFooty (Ch 504)
Kayo
foxfooty.com.au

AFL National Draft Tracker - AFL.com.au

View all the picks as they happen at the AFL National Draft

www.afl.com.au

AFL National Draft Tracker - AFL.com.au

View all the picks as they happen at the AFL National Draft

www.afl.com.au

 

[Triniboy]

carlton supporter

Jagga says Smillie is the best !

 

[Sector 7G]

Can have strong self belief without coming out and stating it publicly though...

Bit of figjam about him

Yep - there is a difference between confidence and arrogance.

As Pagan used to say - if you are any good you don't have to tell them, they will be telling you.

 

[CrippaTheGoat9]

 

[ray8182]

Finally some common sense. Cal Twomey has this guy at #2 after Ashcroft.
His highlights reel looks so much better than Drapers, whom Twomey has at #8.
Draper is quick, strong through the hips, but I can’t see what 35% of this board see.
For a top 3 pick, I think Draper is a big risk because of his disposal.

Langfords kicking looks elite. Might be the best kick in the top 10. Penetrating and accurate. Kicks off one step. Quick getting ball from hand to foot.

Even though his sprint time is a concern l think his other attributes make up for it. Very strong body with good core strength. Good disposal under pressure. Reads game well. Excellent endurance.

(Note travaglia and Langford have similar sprint and endurance times yet l’m not bullish on travaglia becoming a midfielder, partly because of his sprint time. I think langfords size and strength compensates for being a little slower than others. It’s an interesting discussion though)

I don’t think Langford suits Carlton’s needs but he looks like a top 5 pick to me. Wonder if Adelaide would take him over Draper.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Pro

 

[NewDarkNavyBlues]

Reckon the prelude to the draft will be as fascinating as the draft itself.

Norf hold the key if they hold onto pick 2 or trade it. Tiggs the obvious ones so Norf can obtain 2 first round picks. If they're keen on Tauru as reported, they may not risk trading down even if he is a stretch at pick 2.

Interesting post on the Tiggs board from someone who seems to have a good track record, saying that they're keen on Lalor, FOS and Smillie. They'e in a situation if they trade up to get Lalor/FOS using pick 6, they'll have little chance on getting Smillie who the Saints are apparently keen on.

Also says that FOS is the player we're targeting, which is why they're keen on trading up with Norf. I guess we'll be hoping that Norf retain their pick which likely gives us better access to our target - but if the rumour has any legs and the Tiggs trade up to take Lalor and FOS, I'd be more than happy with Jagga.

What if Richmond trade up and go Smith and FOS?

 

[CrippaTheGoat9]

What if Richmond trade up and go Smith and FOS?

Lalor becomes a blue bagger??

 

[Accidental genius]

What's the level of confidence we get him at 3?

Who is he?

 

[DangerousD]

Ok, so why are most of the players on our list still shit at kicking the footy?

I wouldn’t say they are bad kicks, a few bad decision makers though.

 

[DangerousD]

Will be really dumb by them, every year clubs are seduced by the top 2 or 3 and so often the best players are spread throughout the first round.

 

[Sheephead]

I am quite positive that Nick Austin didn’t trade up for Pick 3, only to trade down for something like 6 and 18 (I have seen that suggested on here)…which will give Nick Austin a worse draft pick than when he had both Pick 12 and 14. It would be crazy if Nick did trade 3.

For that package yes. But if say Jagga was there at our pick (RIC trade up and go Lalor and FOSas suggested) I could see MEL and STK calling. It would cost them 5/9 or 7/8 if they want him that bad. That’s 2 trades you’d have to consider - though highly unlikely IMO.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Yep, clearly the coaches opinion of a player and your opinion of the player should be treated equally.

But on Austin I would say 2 things, a player not being a hit does not make them a miss and this will be Austin’s 5 draft and in 2025 there will likely be between 3 and 7 best 23 players in a side expected to make finals from those drafts with just 1 top 10 pick and 2 inside 27 - that is a pretty decent record.

Meow.

Bring me something where Voss is saying that he is happy with all the aspects of Durdin that is expected of a small forward, before forcing me into a death battle with Voss.

Pretty sure Durds has played VFL without it being a return from injury. He's not a walk up start.

At the time you say Voss said this about him, I thought we missed him too. Fog was missing, Williams injured and Owies just can't apply pressure. Durds had a reasonable game before being injured.

None of this is a tick for his career to date, in order to say his drafting was a tick for Austin.

And no, not being a hit does not make them a miss, which I have said the whole time. They are still listed players and can still go either way.

 

[The Blue Weirdo]

Going back to where we started, look at the picks Austin has had - regardless of the quality of the draft picks in that range are always going to be speculative

Austin's picks can only be compared to the other picks/players that were available to him at the time of selection, he didn't have access to kids higher in the draft order.

As for his selection/s this year, we don't have to select the best future player, we just need the best one for our system that is available.

That might be the cleaner ball users like FOS, Langford and Jagga.(Warning...my advanced knowledge of each kids attributes are based only on what I read in this thread)

 

[JimmyRabbit49]

Meow.

Bring me something where Voss is saying that he is happy with all the aspects of Durdin that is expected of a small forward, before forcing me into a death battle with Voss.

Pretty sure Durds has played VFL without it being a return from injury. He's not a walk up start.

At the time you say Voss said this about him, I thought we missed him too. Fog was missing, Williams injured and Owies just can't apply pressure. Durds had a reasonable game before being injured.

None of this is a tick for his career to date, in order to say his drafting was a tick for Austin.

And no, not being a hit does not make them a miss, which I have said the whole time. They are still listed players and can still go either way.

Thanks for reminding me why I resisted coming on here for so long and why I will probably step back again.

You have taken the to the time to argue against me in multiple posts, despite me only ever saying it was “arguable” ie plausible or probable not definite, but somehow end up saying you agreed all along that Austin’s picks aren’t misses.

On top of this you get offended with the logical point that the coaches opinion might be more important and informed than yours AND the suggestion that given you think Durdin has played less than a handful of good games while the coach really missed him you might be looking for different things in his game.

You also seem determined to miss the main point that Austin has largely only had late second early third round picks and yet still will have a minimum of 3 and possibly 7 best 23 players in a contending team next year - which should give us all confidence he can nail pick 3 in a super draft - although I am sure whoever he picks will be judged to be wrong be the host of people on here who have watched 5 minutes of highlights

 

[marcmurphy3]

It's hard to compare SOS vs Austins drafting. Such different scenarios. SOS had so many early picks. Gave him a much better chance to draft guns but also to have high profile misses.

Additionally, SOS picks didn't have the same environment to come into. Now is definitely much better from a player development perspective. That said, it would have been much easier to crack a game for SOS's guys. Fisher and SPS were pretty much walk up starts for most their career and ended up playing 120 games. They would be playing much more reserves if starting now.

I trust Austin more though. Whether you define them as hits or misses (it can be subjective plus still early) most his picks at least look solid. Good or great at VFL level and not out of place in the AFL side even if they don't nail down a spot (which is becoming increasingly harder). A guy like Carroll would probably have played 100 games if he was drafted 10 years ago. Now he's looking like a delist. SOS drafted a fair few guys that were a mile off and not even VFL standard.

In 5 drafts SOS took 28 guys after the first round. Of those 28 only 4 played over 50 games (TDK, Cotts, Fisher, Silvagni). Only a further 2 even played 20 games (Williamson, Gibbons) and 10 players never played a game. You add Dow, LOB, Philp, Stocker, Cunners as first round picks and it starts to look pretty horrendous.

We've probably been saved by the fact his 2015 draft was so exceptional and due to being a big club have been able to attract players even without winning. If we were a lower profile club his recruitment would have been harder to come back from.

I'm not calling Austin definitely better then SOS yet. It's too early. But based on the evidence so far, I am more comfortable with him in the role.

I do think SOS is slightly better at the trade table. More creative, a tougher negotiator and great a maximizing the resources he has. Not to say Austin is bad. His approach is very different and good in its own way. Helped us get 3 this year.

 

[Jimmae]

Ah yes, the old 'we can't judge these decisions now or compare too much with the past' debate, that we perpetually swirl around in, forever.

Austin is doing OK, but we frankly need better from here on out, not weird formulaic picks like Ollie Hollands.

Especially you Jim you old fart.

Oi, I'm not even 40 yet

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Ah yes, the old 'we can't judge these decisions now or compare too much with the past' debate, that we perpetually swirl around in, forever.

Austin is doing OK, but we frankly need better from here on out, not weird formulaic picks like Ollie Hollands.


Oi, I'm not even 40 yet

I didn’t really love the Hollands pick but between taking him at 11 and Cowan at 30 there might only be one player better then him.

 

[GT619]

For that package yes. But if say Jagga was there at our pick (RIC trade up and go Lalor and FOSas suggested) I could see MEL and STK calling. It would cost them 5/9 or 7/8 if they want him that bad. That’s 2 trades you’d have to consider - though highly unlikely IMO.

if our player choice is gone I'd consider it

 

[The Return of the Paf]

I made a Freudian slip today and told a Richmond supporter that they had draft picks 1 and 3 - maybe an omen?

 

[Sheephead]

Will be really dumb by them, every year clubs are seduced by the top 2 or 3 and so often the best players are spread throughout the first round.

Morris paraphrased it by saying 6 in Top 20 would be better than 8 in the Top 25 ~ citing they should get higher and less prospects because just like GWS, they all come out of contract at the same time and need plenty of coin to satisfy, or lose them like Treloar and Co. They have a very good opportunity to retool on the fly, but their picks are spread a bit.

 

[Sheephead]

I made a Freudian slip today and told a Richmond supporter that they had draft picks 1 and 3 - maybe an omen?

Maybe not RICH, but don’t discount MEL and STK if Jagga or Lalor drop.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Re: the rumour of North keen on FOS - Lalor and O'Sullivan going 1 and 2 is my dream scenario.

 

[CrippaTheGoat9]

Lalor and O'Sullivan going 1 and 2 is my dream scenario.

And who goes 3? Jagga?

 

[BlueAbroad]

 

[FlowersByIrene]

And who goes 3? Jagga?

I'd personally prefer Draper but I think we can't go wrong picking between Jagga and Sid.

I stress if Jagga goes top 2 that we'll make a bad decision.

 

[4flagsin5yrs]

I'd personally prefer Draper but I think we can't go wrong picking between Jagga and Sid.

I stress if Jagga goes top 2 that we'll make a bad decision.

I'm curious, how much of a stand out were, for example, Judd or Sheezel, in their junior careers?

Do the young blokes who really succeed, in the senior AFL ranks, have a common recognisable trait?