Analysis 2024 National Draft

[Aphrodite]

 

[Pablito]

At the very least if Draper makes it through to us, and Adelaide are still at 4. They'll give us a call..

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Gotta be honest, as a runner myself below 6 like 5:50s isn’t that impressive. I would’ve thought there’d be way more in the cotts category than their actually are, but obviously have to factor that it’s not just running but putting on muscle.

The times this year were pretty crap if I’m honest but I don’t know what the testing was like that day which I believe plays a big factor

Yeah sub 6 isn't great for actual runners, but with the amount of muscle some AFL players are carrying it's highly impressive.

One of the kids at my highschool runs a 4:03 1500m and he's 16. Also got to level 15 on the beep test in year 9 and asked me if he could stop because he was "bored". That's what I call impressive

 

[hous87]

Fair enough. I don't necessarily think we are going to take him either but would not be disappointed. Will be interesting.

Personally I think while we are interested in Sid draper however, FOS is our pick if he is available Adelaide and Carlton are playing mind games with each other just in case as Adelaide a chance to get pick 2 from kangaroos from than Richmond them crows interviewing FOS is just to keep us honest. If it's not FOS I think Jagger/Lalor next on the list than Sid draper.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Drapers straight line speed and intensity is the biggest contrast to Dow.

Drapers attack on the loose ball and intensity defending stands out.

Looking back on Dow's highlights what stood out to me was how contested his clearance work was. Lots of clearances down on his knees, or getting tackled by players. Yes he had some speed out of the contest and we saw some of that at AFL level (say his goal on the run against GC always springs to mind) but he didn't use his speed in tight and in close quarters. Which really limited when he can actually use his speed, you don't get that many opportunities to burst from stoppage at AFL level, particularly when you're clearance work has you off your feet or under heavy pressure like Dow did.

In contrast, Draper clears the ball at speed, scooping it up off the floor on his feet, cutting across the contest with his speed, using his agility, in addition to straight line speed, to snatch the ball and move out. Completely different players.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Personally I think while we are interested in Sid draper however, FOS is our pick if he is available Adelaide and Carlton are playing mind games with each other just in case as Adelaide a chance to get pick 2 from kangaroos from than Richmond them crows interviewing FOS is just to keep us honest. If it's not FOS I think Jagger/Lalor next on the list than Sid draper.

I have a feeling given the rumours and Austin's comments at trade time that our preference is likely to be FOS, Draper, Jagga then Lalor. Not sure how Langford fits into that as he is a completely different player to the first four.

 

[Coops93]

Not sure how Langford fits into that as he is a completely different player to the first four

I get the feeling Langford is a player that we really like in a vacuum, but with our list they've prioritised run - hence FOS, Jagga & Draper all being the targets.

 

[Aphrodite]

Kevin Sheehan’s 2024 Telstra AFL Draft top 40 prospects

AFL Talent Ambassador Kevin Sheehan has revealed his top 40 prospects for the 2024 Telstra AFL Draft

www.afl.com.au

 

[muzza99]

Uhh. No. It's speed. 2km is not endurance for an AFL athlete. It's how long can you maintain a high pace for. An endurance at speed test. 15km++ is endurance...

Excercise Physiology 101. Aerobic = endurance.... Anaerobic = Speed/power.

Hence 1500m at Olympics is called middle distance. 100 meter sprint is speed (ie regarded as fastest person earth etc)

Repeat anaerobic is speed endurance. Ie 50 metre bursts time an again from stoppages.

 

[JPetro83]

What is gut feel/rumor? who do you think you will take at 3?
I hope its not Draper.. if you do take Draper i hope Lalor is still there at our pick 4

 

[FlowersByIrene]

I get the feeling Langford is a player that we really like in a vacuum, but with our list they've prioritised run - hence FOS, Jagga & Draper all being the targets.

Agree the others all provide some aspect of physical x-factor, Draper extreme speed and agility, FOS speed, agility and verticality, Jagga agility, Lalor explosiveness and verticality. Langford's disposal is his x-factor rather than a physical attribute.

 

[Bagger24]

Unfortunately it seems FOS is going at 2 whether it’s to norf or Adelaide trading up to get him.

Leaves 2 (Draper or Langford)
For me I’d rather Langford.
I don’t think Draper changes us to a ‘pacy’ team.

It’s not a secret that our midfield has no issue getting hands to the ball first. The big issue is the mid/forward connection and the entries inside 5@.

Langford is this to a tee and is an elite user and will be great service to H/charlie/SOS.

IMO him/FOS have easily have the greatest upside.

Langford has Bont written all over him. Even tho his slow I’ve never seen him get caught, has tons of time like pendles and uses it like Bont. He won’t be a 30 touch player (which we don’t need as all the other mids do this) but he’ll get 20-25 touches with 15 scores involvements and can push forward dangerously also. Can impact instantly.

For pace Lord looks like his coming on and the club rate him highly. Also Chuck fog partly on the ball and they add pace. We don’t have one good user out of the midfield.

Cripps has also become wayyyh faster and I’m sure will be working with Langford side by side with a running coach to increase his burst from stoppage.


Hoping Harvey is our guy if FOS/lalor off the board

 

[muzza99]

What is gut feel/rumor? who do you think you will take at 3?
I hope its not Draper.. if you do take Draper i hope Lalor is still there at our pick 4

Have a read of the 40,000 pages above...it's quite unanimous here....narrowed it to one.

 

[CrippaTheGoat9]

Kevin Sheehan’s 2024 Telstra AFL Draft top 40 prospects

AFL Talent Ambassador Kevin Sheehan has revealed his top 40 prospects for the 2024 Telstra AFL Draft

www.afl.com.au

Love Shifta’s comparison’s for Ben Campo, Langford and FOS

 

[4flagsin5yrs]

Love Shifta’s comparison’s for Ben Campo, Langford and FOS

Hadn't realised Ben C. was so tall - 186cm...

 

[4flagsin5yrs]

Draper hot off the press.

 

[ianh]

And that doesn't mean we like all of the options for us, and that others aren't fixing for an opportunity. I hope we're playing the market to our advantage instead of clutching at pick 3.

That's why I'm happy to hear talk of Draper: it may have Adelaide offering a deal involving a future pick.


Pick 3, Pick 38, Ben, Lucas... then who?

Not sure I'm a fan of the reaction and discussion from some responding when they're not even nailing the basic maths.


Tired of this 'let's leave a spot open for the MSD' crap... every year we have 2 season ending injuries and one or two players for 12-20 weeks.

Last season it was basically 3 season ending injuriyes save for us rolling the dice on Docherty. If we like a player, get them in for the pre-season and have a punt for 12 months, otherwise let injuries dictate some moves.

We have the option of short-term SSP selections, and that makes sense for a mature list.

Pick 3 gets us into the elite range, but there's never a guarantee. Whilst I am not opposed to seeing what the market would bring I think it would probably have to be someone who wanted pick 3 badly to grab the particular player they wanted, and we would have to get something better than what we gave up to get pick 3 or what is the point? What that something better might be is the question. A slight slide down the order could still get us in the range of one of the gun mid options, especially if North grab Tauru at 2. Adelaide if they feared we would grab their target, through to St Kilda's 8 or 9 at the latest. But that only gives us a handful of clubs to deal with. Or we go multiple 1st rounders but that's even fewer clubs, both in the sense that Adelaide only have 1 early pick and in the sense that those who do have multiple first rounders are largely not going to want to part with more than 1 of them. Certainly no-one has come hard enough at pick 2 (yet) to entice North. Alternatively we have to look at futures coming into the equation and/or more than 2 picks, but any such combination is likely at best to have one pick at the pointy end. Or we move up to pick 2, but again what would North want to do that?

Iirc you must use your next pick in matching, meaning 38 is gone.

Not necessarily, can be traded at anytime on draft nights including once we are on the clock to match a bid.

 

[mrkyuss]

Looking back on Dow's highlights what stood out to me was how contested his clearance work was. Lots of clearances down on his knees, or getting tackled by players. Yes he had some speed out of the contest and we saw some of that at AFL level (say his goal on the run against GC always springs to mind) but he didn't use his speed in tight and in close quarters. Which really limited when he can actually use his speed, you don't get that many opportunities to burst from stoppage at AFL level, particularly when you're clearance work has you off your feet or under heavy pressure like Dow did.

In contrast, Draper clears the ball at speed, scooping it up off the floor on his feet, cutting across the contest with his speed, using his agility, in addition to straight line speed, to snatch the ball and move out. Completely different players.

Skills are similar - burst from pack with
kicking into a general area with loopy kicks . That’s my biggest issue - might not be Dow 2.0 but we need users as well as pace.

 

[SkyhorseTamer]

Sorry this is just wrong.

2km testing measures aerobic power. These guys ran a 2km in sub 6:30, which is elite.

To run a 6:30 2km, you need to cover 100m in around 19.5 or 20 seconds. I was never a quick runner but I can break 14 seconds for 100m.

It’s an indicator that these guys are great athletes, and are possibly less likely to lose their burst/speed as the game goes on, but it’s not an indicator of their speed at all

Lol what. You just explained that it's a test of endurance and speed combined. It's more akin to game speed than a 20m sprint. Especially as game sprints are usually not from a standing start nor from 'fresh' conditioning.

Modern research shows anaerobic systems are used in a 2km especially when lifting pace through the last section - it is a combination of both. And it's literally a TIMED EVENT. OF COURSE ITS SPEED. LOL

 

[HarryFlashman]

That’s like calling Ed Curnow quick.

And calling Charlie Curnow/ Isaac Smith slow - there’s obviously outliers depending on the player

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Unfortunately it seems FOS is going at 2 whether it’s to norf or Adelaide trading up to get him.

Leaves 2 (Draper or Langford)
For me I’d rather Langford.
I don’t think Draper changes us to a ‘pacy’ team.

It’s not a secret that our midfield has no issue getting hands to the ball first. The big issue is the mid/forward connection and the entries inside 5@.

Langford is this to a tee and is an elite user and will be great service to H/charlie/SOS.

IMO him/FOS have easily have the greatest upside.

Langford has Bont written all over him. Even tho his slow I’ve never seen him get caught, has tons of time like pendles and uses it like Bont. He won’t be a 30 touch player (which we don’t need as all the other mids do this) but he’ll get 20-25 touches with 15 scores involvements and can push forward dangerously also. Can impact instantly.

For pace Lord looks like his coming on and the club rate him highly. Also Chuck fog partly on the ball and they add pace. We don’t have one good user out of the midfield.

Cripps has also become wayyyh faster and I’m sure will be working with Langford side by side with a running coach to increase his burst from stoppage.


Hoping Harvey is our guy if FOS/lalor off the board

not that I disagree with much of this but…. We were the best side in the league at scoring when going inside 50 and Langford will come into the system with possibly 3-4 years more development post puberty then Cripps. Cripps’ speed he added isn’t normal otherwise almost every player would be doing it.

 

[SkyhorseTamer]

High pace isn’t speed either. O Hollands never looks fast in a game even though he can run a fast 2km. Langford’s pace issue will always be there, it won’t stop him being a good player but let’s not pretend like it isn’t an issue

Let's not pretend it is an issue too...

Brions midfield doesn't have 'striker' mid. Pies premiership didn't either. West coast's didn't really Shuey was a gun but not a 'speed demon'. Hawks were undeniably slow, tigers speed came from ball movement and FLANKERS. Cotchin prestia Grigg etc. Dusty wasn't overly 'fast'. Just bloody powerful.

Even the current hawks team who everyone thinks is 'fast' has a bloody slow midfield group lol.

zzzzzzzz

Ollie is a winger/ flanker. If you want to pick things apart Ive said now repeatedly that flankers are where you need that breakaway speed - Langford isn't a flanker.... Apply some context.

Overlap running and good kicking puts speed into the game.

Walsh moving more outside improves overlap running immensely. Langford allows that AND massively improves kicking and distribution skills.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

And calling Charlie Curnow/ Isaac Smith slow - there’s obviously outliers depending on the player

I think the eye test says Langford is comparatively slow

 

[SkyhorseTamer]

For the Draper fans

Don't fully understand how it's an arm wrestle. Clubs aren't competing for his signature. He goes where he's picked....

 

[muzza99]

Lol what. You just explained that it's a test of endurance and speed combined. It's more akin to game speed than a 20m sprint. Especially as game sprints are usually not from a standing start nor from 'fresh' conditioning.

Modern research shows anaerobic systems are used in a 2km especially when lifting pace through the last section - it is a combination of both. And it's literally a TIMED EVENT. OF COURSE ITS SPEED. LOL

This is true. World record Marathon = Best speed over 42.2km.

So choosing someone who is fast one must choose between Usain Bolt Vs Kelvin Kiptum...it's all about the distance

 

[SkyhorseTamer]

While there is an element of 'speed' in a 2km time trial, that 'speed' has nothing to do with speed across the ground or out of the contest in a 2m, 5m, 10m, 20m scenario like what we're talking about breaking away from contest or transitioning through the midfield at AFL level. That is what we lack at AFL level, not speed over distance - as pointed out above Walsh is very quick over 2km but you wouldn't say he has 'speed' for the purpose of an AFL midfielder.

For example, 2kms at 6minutes 30 is 5.2m per second. whereas a 20m sprint at 2.8 seconds or so is 7.2m per second, that's a 40% difference and you're really talking about completely different things. Plus the 20m time you have to account for time off the block, the difference in top speed over 20m versus 2km is likely 3-4x magnitude. Completely different things.

Your last paragraph is wrong. Many people - like Usain himself - are not necessarily quick in the first 20 but continuously build speed and hit their top speeds around 60m. So the speed difference is not a nice rule that says the gap just gets bigger as you go.