Analysis 2024 National Draft

[Aphrodite]

Broadcast Guide - Live Draft ...

1st Round tonight (20th Nov) from 7.00PM
2nd Round tomorrow night (21st Nov) from 7.00PM

FoxFooty (Ch 504)
Kayo
foxfooty.com.au

AFL National Draft Tracker - AFL.com.au

View all the picks as they happen at the AFL National Draft

www.afl.com.au

AFL National Draft Tracker - AFL.com.au

View all the picks as they happen at the AFL National Draft

www.afl.com.au

 

[HereComesJuddy]

Too many issues? Which are what?

So you haven’t watched him live. All good

 

[Sonny Jim]

Smith is an interesting one. Played for tigers reserves this year and dominated in the two's. Was tipped to go pick one mid way through the year.

Yep.
Jet.
Would be very happy if he was in Navy Blue.

 

[bmaurizio]

Smith displays maturity, comes across a well grounded and humble youngster possessing all the attributes of a future captain. A skilled and determined young footballer.
Very impressed by his comportment on gettable.

 

[PenskeFile]

If we really do want Smith and North are prepared to take a f2 and pick 4 for pick 2, we may well end up getting bluffed into giving up something decent to get pick 2. Similar to Essendon last year for Caddy.

There’s a lot of mind games going on

 

[Jimmae]

And there you have it: Smith is probably a lock for top 3, just like I've been saying. Interested to see if we dangle FOS in front of Richmond if Adelaide do trade up to select Smith.

Draper would seem to be the slider of that top 8.

Problem is that to do that we have to trade out of pick 3 - and that's something you have to commit to early. There's no guarantee that Hotton and Hynes are available at the later picks we'd potentially secure, so taking that path is a gamble.

Clubs would be making calls and working out where things are falling by process of elimination. They're analysing every team's list, they're paying attention to who's contacting them about trades, what the DFA/SSP situations look like.

They're also projecting 2-3 years ahead in terms of draft pools and academy acquisitions, free agents, etc. Once you start doing that, their likely draft candidates start to narrow a bit.

At the point where we'd be picking up the phone to talk to Richmond, the trade would likely be 4 & 37 for 7 & 11/12.

Jimmae - where’s your love for Hotton coming from. Frankly, I didn’t see a lot in those 3 games he played early. Seems like the Hotton clan is a bit fragile also with his brother getting cut through injury.

Also - Would you not look for a big if you’re losing 38 and obviously upgrading. Need a KPD most IMO.

I think we're ok with Duffy and Haynes for now, and I don't rate KPDs in this draft as being above the second round.

Looks like Port could be shifting 13 and 29 to GWS for 16 and 21.

If the Kako and Lombard bids come through before Port's first pick, it's more like 15 & 30 for 19 & 24, which is pretty even overall.

But it also tells me if GWS wanted to jump up the order a bit further for somebody, we could probably net a similar deal from them with a pick in the 11-13 range and our future 3rd.

 

[The Return of the Paf]

If we pick Draper it wont be for a sugar hit. The club will pick who they believe is the best long term player.

Sugar hit vs who Carlton groupthink believe to be the best long term player... er... - same thing!

 

[macky99]

Sugar hit vs who Carlton groupthink believe to be the best long term player... er... - same thing!

The top 5 are all quality and bring different qualities to the table despite some people picking holes in them.

 

[RPCB]

Calling any junior player a “sugar hit” is…. Wow.

 

[Yubby]

Yeah maybe, but I would bet money that there isn't a coach in the league outside of Malthouse that says to their players "go super slow, wait until everyone is set up, then go long down the line and just punch it out of bounds if we can't take a mark".

I wonder how much the players are slowing things up trying not to turn over the ball only to invite defensive pressure?

I agree but also imagine Voss is saying things like... "let's use Harry and Charlie on the way out. If they don't mark it then they'll bring it to ground and let our smalls go to work. We can also use the king and crippa as those tall options too."
Personally, I absolutely hate it. We seem to try this option first before other options. Our transition from def is the worst on the eye given the long bombs down the line.

 

[marcmurphy3]

Fair enough to have your favourites but no need to make up garbage. They're all considered pretty tight for a reason.

 

[JJBagger]

Calling any junior player a “sugar hit” is…. Wow.

I think I understand the sentiment. A lot of Carlton fans I’ve seen have talked about picking Draper purely because he makes us better next year, and that’s it. Whereas someone like Langford or FOS may take a couple of seasons to really hit their straps. Not saying that Draper isn’t going to be a fantastic player, I will be ecstatic if we get him

 

[TrueQldBlue]

I hope we take JAGGA

His smarts and ball winning ability is something that can't be coached but is born with.

It's getting close...



On CPH2135 using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[RPCB]

I think I understand the sentiment. A lot of Carlton fans I’ve seen have talked about picking Draper purely because he makes us better next year, and that’s it. Whereas someone like Langford or FOS may take a couple of seasons to really hit their straps. Not saying that Draper isn’t going to be a fantastic player, I will be ecstatic if we get him

Anyone we draft this high, in a great draft, should be a quality player for a long time. Of course busts happen, but we need to have confidence that Austin will get a good quality player at Pick 3. I am comfortable with any of them.

 

[HarryFlashman]

“Sugar hit” is poor choice of wording, the premise I agree with.
Do u really want the developed, ultra professional kid.

He’s obviously worked his ass off, but u have to question what that loading does at a young age.

Yes it enables him to stand up day one, but is that what u really want?
IMO you want a few years of gradual build up, adding size/strength in a controlled environment.

Jagga is slight, but we would control his development.

Theres already questions about Drapers stress/load related back issues.

Walsh is the perfect example of ultra professional, super hard working/training who at 23 needed back surgery.
That’s not good!

That is not the development curve line u want.

 

[marcmurphy3]

“Sugar hit” is poor choice of wording, the premise I agree with.
Do u really want the developed, ultra professional kid.

He’s obviously worked his ass off, but u have to question what that loading does at a young age.

Yes it enables him to stand up day one, but is that what u really want?
IMO you want a few years of gradual build up, adding size/strength in a controlled environment.

Jagga is slight, but we would control his development.

Theres already questions about Drapers stress/load related back issues.

Walsh is the perfect example of ultra professional, super hard working/training who at 23 needed back surgery.
That’s not good!

That is not the development curve line u want.

Walsh was bad luck. More often than not, the highly professional player is more likely to be durable not the other way around. I wouldn't call Draper physically developed either. Has at least another 5 kgs worth of muscle to put on. Not like he is a man child, even though he's bigger than Smith. He's actually the youngest of all the top prospects too other than Lalor.

Yes, the injury is a concern, but I doubt we pick him if there are major red flags. If we pick him, I'm confident we've done our due diligence there.

 

[windows1]

Too many issues? Which are what?

Can’t bounce
Can’t handball
Can’t kick
Doesn’t kick goals

 

[GoBlues!]

Can’t bounce
Can’t handball
Can’t kick
Doesn’t kick goals

Draper made the all Australian U18 team in 2023 and 2024, along with Levi Ashcroft the only two players in this draft to do so, and is widely regarded as SA best U18 prospect.

If what you say is true about Draper then Ben and Lucas mustn’t be much chop.

I think some of the exaggerated comparisons and descriptions about the top 5 or so players need to be dialled back a little.

 

[bigblueboy]

So this will be the greatest draft in history?

This draft is the most overrated in history.

 

[Coona Blues]

This draft is the most overrated in history.

Time will tell. I certainly regard it as deep, having options for most positions through at least two rounds. The growing hype around the top end is a bit out there, however, with Lombard projected outside top 5, I tend to be more inclined to believe it. The Tauru Train is just illogical, yet Armstrong, Shanahan and a couple of others are behind a heap of mids and role players, where traditionally the higher rated KPP are top 10 locks.

 

[PezzDogg95]

And there you have it: Smith is probably a lock for top 3, just like I've been saying. Interested to see if we dangle FOS in front of Richmond if Adelaide do trade up to select Smith.

Draper would seem to be the slider of that top 8.

This is an interesting one, as we could hypothetically be a chance to nab Draper with a later pick if circumstances prevail. Its a big if, but this could be one scenario that may play out:

Pick 1 - Rich - Sam Lalor
Pick 2 - Adel - Jagga Smith (trade up with north as mooted)

Pick 3 will likely be FOS, but to whom is the question... With Pick 4 likely to be Tauru to North, we would have to weigh up whether Melbourne would prefer Langford or Draper at 5 (or perhaps even Smillie), as there could be a possibility of sliding down to 6 to nab Draper if the Dees go with Langford.

Not sure why, but I just see Langford as a perfect fit for Melbourne, particularly with the recent trade requests from Oliver and Trac, and Viney not getting any younger - he would be my pick if I was them (or Smillie). I think Draper makes less sense for them since Trent Rivers move into midfield this season as well.

If Richmond are willing to trade up from 6 (and probably a Smillie pick) to pick 3 for FOS, I'd be looking at something along the lines of 3, 38 & 63 for 6, 20 & 23, which after bids looks more like 3, 40 & 52 for 7, 24 & 27, which is pretty fair in terms of draft points. Tigers could get some mature agers like Davidson and Bice for the later picks, so they don't overdo taking youngsters, while also nabbing FOS and preserving their other top 11 picks.

We could end up with Draper at #6, and take two more picks in the 1st round (my preferences being Harry Oliver and Ollie Hannaford - each to their own, all hypothetical), before a bid match on Ben Camporeale.

Think Clancy Dennis and Lucas Camporeale will be available in the rookie draft, otherwise we can always shift to a 38-4 list structure to take them on the senior list at the ND (although unlikely given salary cap benefits of additional rookies).

Haul of Draper, Oliver, Hannaford, B Campo, L Campo (rookie), Dennis (rookie), DGB (ssp) & Duffy (cat B) would be pretty amazing. Would require a risk of trading down to Pick 6 (7 after Aschroft bid), but it could pay off.

The Adelaide-North trade watch will be very interesting and could set a chain reaction off. Also the trade makes a lot of sense for North, given Richmonds coyness for Pick #2, and safeguards against the "threat" of Melbourne at 5 for Tauru

 

[Coona Blues]

This is an interesting one, as we could hypothetically be a chance to nab Draper with a later pick if circumstances prevail. Its a big if, but this could be one scenario that may play out:

Pick 1 - Rich - Sam Lalor
Pick 2 - Adel - Jagga Smith (trade up with north as mooted)

Pick 3 will likely be FOS, but to whom is the question... With Pick 4 likely to be Tauru to North, we would have to weigh up whether Melbourne would prefer Langford or Draper at 5 (or perhaps even Smillie), as there could be a possibility of sliding down to 6 to nab Draper if the Dees go with Langford.

Not sure why, but I just see Langford as a perfect fit for Melbourne, particularly with the recent trade requests from Oliver and Trac, and Viney not getting any younger - he would be my pick if I was them (or Smillie). I think Draper makes less sense for them since Trent Rivers move into midfield this season as well.

If Richmond are willing to trade up from 6 (and probably a Smillie pick) to pick 3 for FOS, I'd be looking at something along the lines of 3, 38 & 63 for 6, 20 & 23, which after bids looks more like 3, 40 & 52 for 7, 24 & 27, which is pretty fair in terms of draft points. Tigers could get some mature agers like Davidson and Bice for the later picks, so they don't overdo taking youngsters, while also nabbing FOS and preserving their other top 11 picks.

We could end up with Draper at #6, and take two more picks in the 1st round (my preferences being Harry Oliver and Ollie Hannaford - each to their own, all hypothetical), before a bid match on Ben Camporeale.

Think Clancy Dennis and Lucas Camporeale will be available in the rookie draft, otherwise we can always shift to a 38-4 list structure to take them on the senior list at the ND (although unlikely given salary cap benefits of additional rookies).

Haul of Draper, Oliver, Hannaford, B Campo, L Campo (rookie), Dennis (rookie), DGB (ssp) & Duffy (cat B) would be pretty amazing. Would require a risk of trading down to Pick 6 (7 after Aschroft bid), but it could pay off.

The Adelaide-North trade watch will be very interesting and could set a chain reaction off. Also the trade makes a lot of sense for North, given Richmonds coyness for Pick #2, and safeguards against the "threat" of Melbourne at 5 for Tauru

No way Clancy Dennis reaches the rookie draft. Cats are in to him as well, he will go in the ND, and quite likely higher than most think. ~38 is in the right range, not impossible he goes higher

 

[GapInIkonPark]

Channeling multiple South Australian recruits in the same draft/year …

Kernahan, Bradley, Motley
Gibbs, Austin


Draper, B Camporeale, L Camporeale

 

[swuzzlebubble]

Channeling multiple South Australian recruits in the same draft/year …

Kernahan, Bradley, Motley
Gibbs, Austin


Draper, B Camporeale, L Camporeale

Charlie West @ 38?

 

[Matty411]

Is "Sugar Hit" the "Vanilla" of 2024?

Stop making me hungry, y'all.

 

[bradfisher14]

I think I’ve finally come full circle on this.

At the beginning of the off season when we had a pick in the teens, I was happy because I liked a lot of the options in that range and thought that we couldn’t go wrong.

Now after taking the time to study the options available at pick 3, I’ve come to the conclusion that all of them will do well for us. Sure, I have my preferences and there are some players I have more questions marks on than others, but all of the guys we’ve discussed have their own unique elite qualities that they’ll bring to the club.

If I had to make the selection, the name I’m calling out is Jagga Smith. But I will also be happy with any of Draper, O’Sullivan, Langford, or Lalor. Happy to sit back and trust in the judgement of the club.