Training 2024 Pre-Season discussion

[cats_09]

 

[Vdubs]

Club by club: How Chris Scott can deliver one final flag for club’s veterans
Geelong has started to load up on more youngsters after a ‘Dad’s Army’ premiership in 2022. SCOTT GULLAN analyses whether the Cats will slide into rebuild or have enough for a final flag tilt.

Talk about going from chocolates to boiled lollies.

The defending champions started the season with three losses and from there they never really got going which further fuelled the fire about their ageing list.

Chris Scott has handled every challenge which has come his way during his 12-year tenure and he may need to pull into his reserve of magic tricks with many in the football world thinking the Cats might have finally tipped over the edge.

GEELONG​

Coach: Chris Scott

Captain: Patrick Dangerfield

WHAT HAPPENED IN 2023?​

Signs of the hangover were there early and while a five-game winning burst from Round 4-8 momentarily camouflaged the issues, the Cats never really found their stride.

The fade-out late was the biggest concern, losing five of the last six games to finish 12th — the club’s worst finishing position for 20 years.

They were still in the finals race coming into Round 23 but were torched by St Kilda to the tune of 33 points and then conceded meekly at home against the Western Bulldogs in the final round.

It was around the ball where the Cats were found wanting with Joel Selwood’s retirement felt harder than expected, combined with the season-ending injury to Cam Guthrie — the best and fairest winner from the premiership year — after Round 6.

GEELONG BEST 23​

FB: Z Guthrie, T. De Koning, J. Kolodjashnij
HB: T. Stewart, J Henry, M. Blicavs
C: M. Holmes, C. Guthrie, M. Duncan
HF: G. Miers, J. Cameron, O. Henry
F: T. Stengle, T. Hawkins, B. Close
FOL: R. Stanley, P. Dangerfield, T. Atkins
I/C: T. Bruhn, G. Rohan, J. Bowes, B. Parfitt, S. Mannagh (sub)

Veterans who had been so good the previous year such as Norm Smith Medallist Isaac Smith, Zach Tuohy and Mitch Duncan dropped a level while Tyson Stengle didn’t replicate his form of 12 months earlier and skipper Patrick Dangerfield was hampered by injury.

The numbers in the forward line looked good on paper with Tom Hawkins and Jeremy Cameron combining for more than 100 goals again and new recruit Ollie Henry impressing with 41 majors.

But Cameron wasn’t the same player after being accidentally knocked out by teammate Gary Rohan in Round 15 and his troubles from that point on mirrored his team’s.

WHERE DO THEY FINISH IN 2024?​

There are plenty of football pundits queuing up to declare that finally this amazing football club is set for a proper slide.

Smith is the only notable retirement, while they lost key defender Esava Ratugolea to Port Adelaide in the trade period.

There was a noticeable focus on the national draft in November, which might give an insight into a change of attitude at Kardinia Park.

The age demographic is again something which the critics use when predicting the fall of the empire, with 11 Geelong players to be 30 and over coming into the 2024 season.

That’s a serious chunk of the list in their twilight years, which throws up one crucial question — have they got another roll of the dice in them?

There are a lot of ‘if’s’ about Geelong, but for a minute imagine if Dangerfield, Cameron, Guthrie, Hawkins, Duncan, Tom Stewart and Mark Blicavs get themselves right physically for one last campaign.

Obviously for Scott to pull off another miracle he will need something significant from others such as talented rising stars like Max Holmes, Tanner Bruhn, Sam De Koning and a better run with injury for the much-hyped Jhye Clark.

BIGGEST IMPROVER IN 2024?​

Tanner Bruhn is the one the Cats need to find another level.

He looked good at times during 19 games in his first season at Geelong, after starting his career at the GWS Giants.

He now enters his fourth AFL season with 49 games behind him, which is generally the time for significant growth.

Geelong’s midfield is crying out for more elite talent, with Bruhn and Holmes the two potential stars.

Young ruckman Toby Conway also showed in his one-game appearance that there is something there.

If he can have an injury-free run, that trio can have a major impact on the Cats fortunes.

X-FACTOR​

One of the stories of the national draft was the drafting of 26-year-old Werribee VFL standout Shaun Mannagh.

The Cats had followed him for a couple of years, but the football world took notice of him with an extraordinary six-goal, 27-disposal grand final performance in a losing cause.

There are plenty who think Mannagh can bring that sort of explosiveness to the AFL, which will be a point of difference Geelong is craving.

COACH STATUS​

Chris Scott signed a two-year extension in September which will see him coach Geelong until the end of 2026, meaning he will coach the Cats for 16 seasons.

There has been some shuffling of the decks beneath him, with premiership ruckman Steven King returning home after stints with the Western Bulldogs and Gold Coast.

Another ex-Cat, James Rahilly, who was voted the AFL Coaches’ Association assistant coach of the year in 2023, also returns after three seasons at Adelaide.

Shaun Grigg (Gold Coast) and Daisy Pearce (West Coast AFLW) depart.

IN LAST YEAR OF CONTRACT​

Brandan Parfitt, Cameron Guthrie, Emerson Jeka, Gary Rohan, Jack Bowes, Jack Henry, Jake Kolodjashnij, James Willis, Jed Bews, Jhye Clark, Mark O’Connor, Max Holmes, Mitch Hardie, Mitch Duncan, Ollie Henry, Patrick Dangerfield, Phoenix Foster, Rhys Stanley, Ted Clohesy, Tom Hawkins, Tyson Stengle, Zach Guthrie, Zach Tuohy.

INS FOR 2024​

Mitchell Edwards (No.32 draft pick), Joe Furphy (Category B rookie), Lawson Humphries (No.63 draft pick), Emerson Jeka (Rookie Draft), Shaun Mannagh (No.36 draft pick), Connor O’Sullivan (No.11 draft pick), George Stevens (No.58 draft pick), Oliver Wiltshire (No.61 draft pick)

OUTS FROM 2023​

Jonathon Ceglar (retired), Flynn Kroeger (delisted), Sam Menegola (delisted), Esava Ratugolea (trade, Port Adelaide), Osca Riccardi (delisted), Sam Simpson (delisted), Isaac Smith (retired), Cooper Whyte (delisted)

GEELONG FIRST SIX​

Geelong's first six games of 2024
Rd 1: St Kilda @ GMHBA (W)
Rd 2: Adelaide @ AO (L)
Rd 3: Hawthorn @ MCG (W)
Rd 4: Western Bulldogs @ AO (L)
Rd 5: North Melbourne @ GMHBA (W)
Rd 6 – Brisbane @ Gabba (L)
Prediction (3-3)

Good assessment.
I find it bemusing though that most posters and writers ignore or omit Jed Bews from our best 23.

If that's your 'best case scenario' prediction as the question implied, then we're in for a shocking year.

In terms of likelihood, you're both probably right, and I'd say most on here including myself would predict those outcomes if we had to bet on it.

However, best case scenario remains top 4 and a premiership. Not only are we not that far away, the competition is historically weak.

A team carrying Oleg Markov, Billy Frampton, Pat Lipinski, & Mason Cox among other average (at best) footballers just won the flag, and sat on top virtually all year.

It's a very weak era, and now more than ever, there would be very few teams who wouldn't think they're a chance if things go the right way.

But what about Daicos, Daicos, Moore, Sidebottom, De Goey, Pendlebury, Crisp, Maynard, Mitchell, Quaynor, Bobby? All class and potency.

 

[Mr Meow]

Good assessment.
I find it bemusing though that most posters and writers ignore or omit Jed Bews from our best 23.

But what about Daicos, Daicos, Moore, Sidebottom, De Goey, Pendlebury, Crisp, Maynard, Mitchell, Quaynor, Bobby? All class and potency.

It's a very good list of top end players.

Cameron, Stewart, Dangerfield, Hawkins, C.Guthrie, Blicavs, Duncan, Miers, Stengle, Atkins, Holmes and the Henry boys aren't exactly a group of mugs either.

All on the park at the same time, with a big pre season and a fire lit after a disastrous 2023? I wouldn't rule them out surprising quite a few.

 

[Vivy]

If you had to make a prediction, what's your optimistic guess as to how well we could do in 2024? What's the highest you can see us reaching?

The optimistic view is premiers for mine.

Great top end of the list. Health and a bit of luck will see us thereabouts

 

[CatToTheFuture]

I think rather than state one outcome it's probably more interesting to get people to pick quartiles.

This is basically saying that yes technically any outcome is possible so premiers and spooners can't be discounted, but run the scenarios for the year a million times and you pick the average outcome, but also the worst of the best quarter of the outcomes and the best of the worst quarter of the outcomes.

If the outcomes for the year were basically uniform then you'd say we end up 9th as the median average, with a quarter of our finishes 5th or above and a quarter of our finishes around maybe 13th.

If you thought we were a Monty for the 8 but maybe less likely for premiers then you might say bottom quartile 5th, median 4th, top quartile 4th. This says half the probable outcomes as you see them are between 4th and 5th and you're pretty certain of the outcome.

Mine?

Top: 5th
Med: 7th
Low: 10th

So this says I think we have a little under a 1 in 4 chance at the top 4. Just over 50% chance of finals. But then a whole quartile of outcomes around 7th to 10th and then 11th-18th with lowest probability.

 

[Hamingja]

Good assessment.
I find it bemusing though that most posters and writers ignore or omit Jed Bews from our best 23.

Bews and Tuohy are the two that people will omit to be different. CS will go down with the ship with the older players until it is proven well beyond doubt that they are cooked, see Higgins/Dahlhaus. I would be picking any best 22 based on seniority if your intention with the best 22 is to pick the actual line up and not the one you want.

 

[CharacterFirst]

Hello Catters, I come in peace. Just keen to know how young Emerson Jeka is getting on. He doesn't seem to be listed in the recovery group so that's a good sign already. If he stays fit then he's absolutely capable.

 

[gogeelongcats]

I think rather than state one outcome it's probably more interesting to get people to pick quartiles.

This is basically saying that yes technically any outcome is possible so premiers and spooners can't be discounted, but run the scenarios for the year a million times and you pick the average outcome, but also the worst of the best quarter of the outcomes and the best of the worst quarter of the outcomes.

If the outcomes for the year were basically uniform then you'd say we end up 9th as the median average, with a quarter of our finishes 5th or above and a quarter of our finishes around maybe 13th.

If you thought we were a Monty for the 8 but maybe less likely for premiers then you might say bottom quartile 5th, median 4th, top quartile 4th. This says half the probable outcomes as you see them are between 4th and 5th and you're pretty certain of the outcome.

Mine?

Top: 5th
Med: 7th
Low: 10th

So this says I think we have a little under a 1 in 4 chance at the top 4. Just over 50% chance of finals. But then a whole quartile of outcomes around 7th to 10th and then 11th-18th with lowest probability.

Reminds me of uni 45 years ago.

 

[The rabbi]

Bews and Tuohy are the two that people will omit to be different. CS will go down with the ship with the older players until it is proven well beyond doubt that they are cooked, see Higgins/Dahlhaus. I would be picking any best 22 based on seniority if your intention with the best 22 is to pick the actual line up and not the one you want.

I would not be so sure of that given that we did not pick up any veterans this trade/draft period with the exception of Shaun Mannagh at 26 y.o. And it is not like he is a 30+ y.o. veteran from another AFL club as in the past with Higgins/Dahlhaus et al.
Apart from Mannagh, Jeka at 22 is younger than SDK, and Furphy is a 24 y.o. Cat B iirc.
Nor would I be surprised that one or two veterans that want to continue on get tapped on the shoulder at the end of season.
Although I would personally prefer to see veterans get pushed out by younger players coming through.

 

[Footy Smarts]

CS will go down with the ship with the older players until it is proven well beyond doubt that they are cooked, see Higgins/Dahlhaus.

This is completely rewriting history.

Even in 2021 Higgins only played 2 finals both as sub and Dahlhaus was dropped after the first final. This was despite missing a bunch of best 22 players by the prelim final.

In the QF that year we rushed Simpson back from injury to play ahead of Higgins. In the PF we picked Atkins, Close, Z Guthrie, Holmes and Ratugolea all ahead of either Dahlhaus (not picked) or Higgins (sub). None of those players in the 2020 GF.

Dahlhaus was clearly best 22 from 2018-2020. In 2021 both Dahlhaus and Higgins were fringe so played most games but we're squeezed out come finals due to poor performance. In 2022 both had chances to prove themselves, failed to, and were barely seen again. There was no going down with the ship with them.

 

[Mr Meow]

This is completely rewriting history.

Even in 2021 Higgins only played 2 finals both as sub and Dahlhaus was dropped after the first final. This was despite missing a bunch of best 22 players by the prelim final.

In the QF that year we rushed Simpson back from injury to play ahead of Higgins. In the PF we picked Atkins, Close, Z Guthrie, Holmes and Ratugolea all ahead of either Dahlhaus (not picked) or Higgins (sub). None of those players in the 2020 GF.

Dahlhaus was clearly best 22 from 2018-2020. In 2021 both Dahlhaus and Higgins were fringe so played most games but we're squeezed out come finals due to poor performance. In 2022 both had chances to prove themselves, failed to, and were barely seen again. There was no going down with the ship with them.

Given Tuohy and Bews 2023 form resembled Higgins and Dahlhaus in 2021, it wouldn't be outlandish at all if they are forced out of Geelong's best 22 next season.

 

[gogeelongcats]

Bews will be hard to replace.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Given Tuohy and Bews 2023 form resembled Higgins and Dahlhaus in 2021, it wouldn't be outlandish at all if they are forced out of Geelong's best 22 next season.

Agreed.

Bews played VFL for a few weeks late in the year. Every chance he wouldn't have got back in without the injury crisis.

Tuohy was probably sightly better but was hanging on.

Both could bounce back next year but both could easily struggle. We'll give them a few chances like with Higgins and Dahlhaus in 2022 but if they're not up to it they won't continue to be picked.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

Bews and Tuohy are the two that people will omit to be different. CS will go down with the ship with the older players until it is proven well beyond doubt that they are cooked, see Higgins/Dahlhaus. I would be picking any best 22 based on seniority if your intention with the best 22 is to pick the actual line up and not the one you want.

This feels like it's just trying to be critical, when what you've stated is exactly what most of us want from the match committee.

So he'll continue picking players until they can't contribute at the desired level anymore? That sounds a lot more like selection integrity rather than anything to be negative about.

Bews, Touhy, Kolo and others appear to on thin ice, but at the end of the day, if they're contributing they'll be picked, and if they're not, they won't, just like the players you mentioned.

We like to complain on here about our match committee, but how many have they actually gotten wrong?

We've heard for years on here about how GHS, Constable, Kersten, Kreuger, Jansen, Fogarty, Narkle, and God knows who else are going to make us look stupid by going somewhere else and dominating....and it never happens.

I'll take the opinions of the club on this one, and if they think a player isn't doing enough to be be selected, then I'll back their judgement. They don't get these wrong too often.

 

[Vdubs]

This feels like it's just trying to be critical, when what you've stated is exactly what most of us want from the match committee.

So he'll continue picking players until they can't contribute at the desired level anymore? That sounds a lot more like selection integrity rather than anything to be negative about.

Bews, Touhy, Kolo and others appear to on thin ice, but at the end of the day, if they're contributing they'll be picked, and if they're not, they won't, just like the players you mentioned.

We like to complain on here about our match committee, but how many have they actually gotten wrong?

We've heard for years on here about how GHS, Constable, Kersten, Kreuger, Jansen, Fogarty, Narkle, and God knows who else are going to make us look stupid by going somewhere else and dominating....and it never happens.

I'll take the opinions of the club on this one, and if they think a player isn't doing enough to be be selected, then I'll back their judgement. They don't get these wrong too often.

Agreed. It's not the club I was quoting though- a journo put the best 23 together, and seems to be in unison with many posters' opinions regarding Bews. Time will tell.

 

[Hamingja]

This feels like it's just trying to be critical, when what you've stated is exactly what most of us want from the match committee.

It is not trying to be critical, just realistic. Unless he is injured I would say there is practically zero percent chance that Tuohy is not in the round 1 side yet Gullan and probably over 50% of the best 22 teams on here don't have him in. Tuohy would 100% be in my side to start the year FWIW.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

I think rather than state one outcome it's probably more interesting to get people to pick quartiles.

This is basically saying that yes technically any outcome is possible so premiers and spooners can't be discounted, but run the scenarios for the year a million times and you pick the average outcome, but also the worst of the best quarter of the outcomes and the best of the worst quarter of the outcomes.

If the outcomes for the year were basically uniform then you'd say we end up 9th as the median average, with a quarter of our finishes 5th or above and a quarter of our finishes around maybe 13th.

If you thought we were a Monty for the 8 but maybe less likely for premiers then you might say bottom quartile 5th, median 4th, top quartile 4th. This says half the probable outcomes as you see them are between 4th and 5th and you're pretty certain of the outcome.

Mine?

Top: 5th
Med: 7th
Low: 10th

So this says I think we have a little under a 1 in 4 chance at the top 4. Just over 50% chance of finals. But then a whole quartile of outcomes around 7th to 10th and then 11th-18th with lowest probability.

Yeah i agree.

I think a lot of it depends on a) if the older guys can stay uninjured and play at a good level or drop off and b) do the middle agers break out.

On a) we know a couple of older guys will drop out of the 22 as happens every year, my guess would be bews and tuohy or rohan. But of the ones left specifically hawk and danger can they keep playing at a high level? And can stanley stay fit so we dont have to expose stanley too early.

Long term i love our youth but they need 2-3 years to become solid afl A graders. In the meantime is the midfield goos enough? We need atkins to have another really good year and if a couple of mannagh bowes hardie and parfitt could have great years (as they are the middle aged guys) in 2024 that could keep us in the top quartile. If these guys bust or dont perform and the older guys get injured or decline then i can see us missing finals again. It does help us that its a weak comp though.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Given Tuohy and Bews 2023 form resembled Higgins and Dahlhaus in 2021, it wouldn't be outlandish at all if they are forced out of Geelong's best 22 next season.

Bews definitely particularly if bowes or mullin come on (even if they dont he might get dropped anyway and someone like duncan becomes perma back 6). Tuohy i think ditto if knevitt and clark (as well as mannagh) play how i think they will.
I also think rohan is on pretty shaky ground as well.

 

[MacStradbroke]

Bews definitely particularly if bowes or mullin come on (even if they dont he might get dropped anyway and someone like duncan becomes perma back 6). Tuohy i think ditto if knevitt and clark (as well as mannagh) play how i think they will.
I also think rohan is on pretty shaky ground as well.

Nice to see some competition for spots going into the year. The cupboard was very very bare at times last year, mainly due to injury as opposed to personnel. Looking forward to seeing team transition.

 

[Vdubs]

It's a very good list of top end players.

Cameron, Stewart, Dangerfield, Hawkins, C.Guthrie, Blicavs, Duncan, Miers, Stengle, Atkins, Holmes and the Henry boys aren't exactly a group of mugs either.

All on the park at the same time, with a big pre season and a fire lit after a disastrous 2023? I wouldn't rule them out surprising quite a few.

I keep waiting for Pendles and Sidebottom to drop off like Danger has, in 23, but they defy the rules of TMBS. Who knows if their hunger will be at a peak as it was in 23? They are but humans.

 

[Pods]

Neither were explosive players though so they’re unlikely to drop off the way you’re expecting. They’re plodders

I keep waiting for Pendles and Sidebottom to drop off like Danger has, in 23, but they defy the rules of TMBS. Who knows if their hunger will be at a peak as it was in 23? They are but humans.

ther

 

[catswhiskers]

Bews definitely particularly if bowes or mullin come on (even if they dont he might get dropped anyway and someone like duncan becomes perma back 6). Tuohy i think ditto if knevitt and clark (as well as mannagh) play how i think they will.
I also think rohan is on pretty shaky ground as well.

The measure of success in 2024 will be how many of kids (20-25yo ) force out the older players. A big push from below and we contend.

 

[Vdubs]

Neither were explosive players though so they’re unlikely to drop off the way you’re expecting. They’re plodders

ther

Are they the best 2 plodders in the comp?

 

[Mr Meow]

I keep waiting for Pendles and Sidebottom to drop off like Danger has, in 23, but they defy the rules of TMBS. Who knows if their hunger will be at a peak as it was in 23? They are but humans.

Odd summation.

Dangerfield had more coaches and Brownlow votes than Pendlebury and Sidebottom combined in 2023, despite his obvious injury issues in the second half of the season.

Those two wouldn't have saved our trainwreck season this year, much like Dangerfield would've excelled in their dominant side. But on sheer individual output he did outdo them this year anyway.

 

[longtimecat]

I am looking for some innovation this off season. I would like to see Neale at FF, Hawkins at CHF and Cameron played on a wing. Jeremy loves getting up the ground and is a good runner with v good disposal and would be a very difficult match up for opposition. It has been done before with Richardson and Reiwold recon it's worth a try and gets games into Neale.