List Mgmt. 2024 Trade Thread - No.1

[g_TRAIN]

That’s mostly a whole bunch of B graders that aren’t taking us where we need to go. Phillipou is probably the only one showing A grade potential. Windy has looked promising but he’s looking more like a Crouch type than a damaging player. Ross basically ruled out Owens ever being a mid today and Henry looks good but he’s a twig and more likely to be a really good flanker which is fine. I think we’ve had this debate a thousand times though, you think we need depth I think we need quality so we’ll probably never agree my friend.

I’m desperate for two early picks mostly because you can stuff up one early pick but it’s almost impossible to stuff you two. Get both right and the rebuild is finally over. It’s almost negligent to match Hawthorn if we get a pick after ours IMO.

Windy may only end up Crouch like in terms of how good a player he is but as mids they're a very different style.

And Crouch was a bloody good player

 

[hayes]

If you think a Crouch type is not important, i don't really value your opinion.

They’re important but Crouch isn’t an A grader.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

They’re important but Crouch isn’t an A grader.

There aren't many who can extract the ball from the middle like he does.
We see the great finishers, but Crouch is a very very good starter.

 

[hayes]

Windy may only end up Crouch like in terms of how good a player he is but as mids they're a very different style.

And Crouch was a bloody good player

I think they’re very similar styles. Contested bulls but no hurt factor with their disposals or on the scoreboard. Compare that to Phillipou who came in lacing out kicks and having multiple shots on goal. Nothing wrong with those types but you can’t have too many of them.

 

[beside the seaside]

The article is written by Landsberger and Jay Clark. So that’s hopeful.

But it’s 2 throw away lines in an entire article about Melbourne going after Dan Houston and the cost will be minimum 1 FRDP - with Melbourne thinking of entertaining an Oliver trade should they want to trade back into the draft.

“The Hawks are heavily into St Kilda’s unrestricted free agent Josh Battle.

But Battle has a sizeable offer in front of him from the Saints and confidence is growing at Moorabbin that he will stay put.”

What do you think happens with Battle stavro? Sounds like we're still a chance?

 

[gringo2011]

That’s mostly a whole bunch of B graders that aren’t taking us where we need to go. Phillipou is probably the only one showing A grade potential. Windy has looked promising but he’s looking more like a Crouch type than a damaging player. Ross basically ruled out Owens ever being a mid today and Henry looks good but he’s a twig and more likely to be a really good flanker which is fine. I think we’ve had this debate a thousand times though, you think we need depth I think we need quality so we’ll probably never agree my friend.

I’m desperate for two early picks mostly because you can stuff up one early pick but it’s almost impossible to stuff you two. Get both right and the rebuild is finally over. It’s almost negligent to match Hawthorn if we get a pick after ours IMO.

We have a high pick for being shit as it is. If we are good at the draft we nail a gun mid with that. You say you can't stuff up two but we have blown Coff and Clark, Paddy and Hugh. We also blew Billings, Dunny and Acres. D-Mac was also the first pick in the second round.

Even our gun recruiter blew Dylan Stephens at pick 5 (one of only two busts in the first fifteen picks) and Will Gould at 26 in 2019. Also blew Elijah Taylor before grabbing Chad Warner.


I reckon the front end of this draft has a few with higher than normal bust factor due to it having less absolute stand out players. Last year would have been a great year to have high picks in comparison. I reckon this draft will end up running deep though. Our second round pick could end up as good as our first. It's not a draft I'd do anything to get into the top 6.

I'd even look at trading down for 2 later FRDPs unless an unexpected player slides if we do get pick 6 for Battle.

 

[gringo2011]

They’re important but Crouch isn’t an A grader.

He probably had a couple of A grade seasons at Adelaide. Even last year he was 20th in the comp for disposals, he might not have been elite but pretty much carried us last year.

Windy reminds me more of Steele, he started as a tagger and at some point should stand up as play maker.

 

[gringo2011]

I think they’re very similar styles. Contested bulls but no hurt factor with their disposals or on the scoreboard. Compare that to Phillipou who came in lacing out kicks and having multiple shots on goal. Nothing wrong with those types but you can’t have too many of them.

Those types like Danger, Bont etc are absolute unicorns. The good ones are the absolute elite players of the comp.

 

[stavro#4]

What do you think happens with Battle stavro? Sounds like we're still a chance?

Think he is gone. Haven’t changed my thoughts on it really.

But I honestly don’t know anything more than what I said.

We have a good offer on the table and it’s increased since that reported 800k in March.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

He probably had a couple of A grade seasons at Adelaide. Even last year he was 20th in the comp for disposals, he might not have been elite but pretty much carried us last year.

Windy reminds me more of Steele, he started as a tagger and at some point should stand up as play maker.

Crouch was 16th for contested posessions. 14th for clearances. in 2023.

 

[ThomasR]

I’m desperate for two early picks mostly because you can stuff up one early pick but it’s almost impossible to stuff you two. Get both right and the rebuild is finally over. It’s almost negligent to match Hawthorn if we get a pick after ours IMO.

I think it's hard but not impossible to stuff up two (especially 2 x top 5).

I did some very rudimentary number crunching trying to fit a model to the % chance a player has a 150+ game career (drafts from 2000-2015). Maybe not the best metric & the data is very volatile but will do for now...

Pick 1 - expected: 98% (reality: 81%)
Pick 2 - 85% (69%)
Pick 5 - 68% (69%)
Pick 10 - 54% (31%)
Pick 20 - 41% (33%)
Pick 30 - 33% (35%)
Pick 40 - 29% (57%*)
Pick 50 - 24% (21%)
Pick 60 - 21% (17%)

* the old F/S rules distort this a bit (Ablett jnr, Jobe Watson). We balanced it out with Brodie Murdoch and Brandon White.

This is a bit at odds with the AFL's pick value model, which weights early picks much higher (they must factor in the higher ceiling of early picks). 5 x pick 60s has the same chance of producing a 150-gamer as a single pick 1. The AFL points system equates pick 1 to 20 pick 60s.

Some scenarios assuming Battle stays / goes. Gold Coast currently have picks 8 and 9 and an academy product who is seen by some as top 5 - perhaps our best chance of acquiring some more picks.

150 gamers	4	8 + 9	4 + 5	4 + 8 + 9
3	0%	0%	0%	24%
2+	0%	33%	49%	69%
1+	72%	82%	91%	95%
0	28%	18%	9%	5%

Even if Battle stays, turning pick 4 into picks 8 and 9 seems like a favourable option - particularly given the deep nature of the draft which should still have some perceived quality available at that stage.

All in all, I hope we don't get too attached to our early pick(s) and see if we can grab a few more darts. Taking five players in the ND last year was a great start and hopefully that trend continues.

 

[crawfords cat]

In today presser Ross dismisses the idea of Mitch as a mid - "I wouldn't think that plays to his tools."

Which of Mitch's attributes do we think Ross is thinking of?

 

[SteeleSaints]

I think it's hard but not impossible to stuff up two (especially 2 x top 5).

I did some very rudimentary number crunching trying to fit a model to the % chance a player has a 150+ game career (drafts from 2000-2015). Maybe not the best metric & the data is very volatile but will do for now...

Pick 1 - expected: 98% (reality: 81%)
Pick 2 - 85% (69%)
Pick 5 - 68% (69%)
Pick 10 - 54% (31%)
Pick 20 - 41% (33%)
Pick 30 - 33% (35%)
Pick 40 - 29% (57%*)
Pick 50 - 24% (21%)
Pick 60 - 21% (17%)

* the old F/S rules distort this a bit (Ablett jnr, Jobe Watson). We balanced it out with Brodie Murdoch and Brandon White.

This is a bit at odds with the AFL's pick value model, which weights early picks much higher (they must factor in the higher ceiling of early picks). 5 x pick 60s has the same chance of producing a 150-gamer as a single pick 1. The AFL points system equates pick 1 to 20 pick 60s.

Some scenarios assuming Battle stays / goes. Gold Coast currently have picks 8 and 9 and an academy product who is seen by some as top 5 - perhaps our best chance of acquiring some more picks.

150 gamers	4	8 + 9	4 + 5	4 + 8 + 9
3	0%	0%	0%	24%
2+	0%	33%	49%	69%
1+	72%	82%	91%	95%
0	28%	18%	9%	5%

Even if Battle stays, turning pick 4 into picks 8 and 9 seems like a favourable option - particularly given the deep nature of the draft which should still have some perceived quality available at that stage.

All in all, I hope we don't get too attached to our early pick(s) and see if we can grab a few more darts. Taking five players in the ND last year was a great start and hopefully that trend continues.

Excellent research and assessment. Imagine having 3 x top 10 picks that is stuff dreams are made of. It would bring a lot of other young players into our calculations and set us up for years.

GCS have picks #8 &10 and given their academy players they might be keen to move a pick to the following year. Id be happy to swap our 1st round 2025 pick for one of their early picks.

Being able to move picks 2 years in advance will open up all sorts of options for pick swaps & trades.

Looking at the indicitive draft order gees Freo have an unbelievable hand this year 3 picks in top 20 and miriad of others including our 2nd round pick.

 

[jwint43]

It's a rare situation where I am happy with either outcome. Battle is a very talented and underrated player and is a core part of our backline, which is probably our best strength.

But we also have the worst midfield in the comp and have for years now. Taking the best 2 mids available at 4 and 5 or whatever it ends up being gives us a good chance of at least one of them working out and giving us talent we desperately need.

We could also draft Jack Billins and Luke Dunstan

27

Luke Dunstan

Age

29

Ht

185cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

20.7

5star

K

10.1

4star

HB

10.6

5star

M

3.3

3star

T

4.8

5star

CL

4.4

5star

D

21.0

5star

K

13.0

5star

HB

8.0

4star

M

3.0

3star

T

9.0

5star

CL

2.0

4star

D

18.2

5star

K

6.0

3star

HB

12.2

5star

M

2.4

3star

T

6.2

5star

CL

4.2

5star

again..

 

[jwint43]

I've watched Oliver all year as I picked him in fantasy in the first round (terrible mistake).

He is going through the motions and doing the bare minimum with very poor body language. His tackle numbers are down, and he doesn't show any of the same hunger he once had.

Physically I think he is still capable of getting back to somewhere near his best.

Whether this is to do with him wanting out of Melbourne, a tactical change in how they want him to play, his off field issues. or something else, he is not putting in the effort and it seems like football is not a priority for him.

The only time I've seen him truly try in the last month is when he copped an absolute bake at quarter time from Simon Goodwin

Simon Goodwin

Age

48

Ht

185cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

20.9

5star

K

12.1

4star

HB

8.8

5star

M

4.0

4star

T

2.5

4star

No current season stats available

D

9.4

3star

K

7.2

3star

HB

2.2

2star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.2

4star

against the Dons. He had 1 kick and 1 mark at QT.

It's a huge gamble and most likely won't be as simple as him needing a fresh start.

 

[tomjoad]

That’s mostly a whole bunch of B graders that aren’t taking us where we need to go. Phillipou is probably the only one showing A grade potential. Windy has looked promising but he’s looking more like a Crouch type than a damaging player. Ross basically ruled out Owens ever being a mid today and Henry looks good but he’s a twig and more likely to be a really good flanker which is fine. I think we’ve had this debate a thousand times though, you think we need depth I think we need quality so we’ll probably never agree my friend.

I’m desperate for two early picks mostly because you can stuff up one early pick but it’s almost impossible to stuff you two. Get both right and the rebuild is finally over. It’s almost negligent to match Hawthorn if we get a pick after ours IMO.

We need both quality AND depth. Our midfield in particular is crazily thin. Absolutely use the draft to get the young guns in...and then try and find some guys floating in the state leagues...or guys not getting their chances in the AFL. We may have to churn through a few, but there's also gold to be found.

 

[tomjoad]

They’re important but Crouch isn’t an A grader.

I'd have prime Crouch pretty close to an A grader. He's not a superstar now, but he was incredibly reliable. If he had of gone to a Carlton, Essendon, Hawks, Pies, or Richmond, the media would've made a far bigger deal over what he brings to the table...and would probably have another AA under his belt.

 

[jwint43]

I'd have prime Crouch pretty close to an A grader. He's not a superstar now, but he was incredibly reliable. If he had of gone to a Carlton, Essendon, Hawks, Pies, or Richmond, the media would've made a far bigger deal over what he brings to the table...and would probably have another AA under his belt.

Yeah you need players like Crouch. I would argue he was pushing A grade status before his ACL, he had more penetration on his kick and more pace. The crouch brothers were media darlings in 2016/17.

He was a very good, professional player for us. Not everyone is going to be 190cm aerobic beasts bursting out of stoppage. He knew what he brought to the table and we got him on a very reasonable deal. Sad the way his career has ended with the knee issue.

 

[tomjoad]

Yeah you need players like Crouch. I would argue he was pushing A grade status before his ACL, he had more penetration on his kick and more pace. The crouch brothers were media darlings in 2016/17.

He was a very good, professional player for us. Not everyone is going to be 190cm aerobic beasts bursting out of stoppage. He knew what he brought to the table and we got him on a very reasonable deal. Sad the way his career has ended with the knee issue.

Yeah, I would have liked him to have gone out better than the way it seems to have gone for him (and us)
We've missed him this year.

 

[hayes]

In today presser Ross dismisses the idea of Mitch as a mid - "I wouldn't think that plays to his tools."

Which of Mitch's attributes do we think Ross is thinking of?

I’m guessing it’s because last year he was the best post clearance contested possession player in the AFL which is a pretty important stat. That’s all away from the stoppage stuff. He’s a tough matchup in the forward line and he can obviously find the goals when we actually get the ball down there.

 

[Dr Spaceman]

In today presser Ross dismisses the idea of Mitch as a mid - "I wouldn't think that plays to his tools."

Which of Mitch's attributes do we think Ross is thinking of?

 

[stavro#4]

I’m guessing it’s because last year he was the best post clearance contested possession player in the AFL which is a pretty important stat. That’s all away from the stoppage stuff. He’s a tough matchup in the forward line and he can obviously find the goals when we actually get the ball down there.

It’s because at AFL level Chito just gets lost in the structures of an AFL midfield.

The feedback to him is that the game passes him by.

When he plays forward. It’s very simple.

See ball. Win ball.

Doesn’t have to worry about his man running the other way. Doesn’t get lost when it’s his time to go etc.

So what’s happened is that we have effectively developed an elite medium tall forward (struggling with form) - but an average midfielder at this point. With Owens being so young in his development. They want to focus on building on the area where he looks exceptional and in time that should allow greater midfield time. Also helps that all our other tall forwards are broken.

But it won’t be Chito the mid anytime soon - which is why those talking it up as something they would like and how it would impact trading and drafting are very off base currently.

Future state. Maybe. Probably.

Now. Short term. Nope.

 

[gringo2011]

I think it's hard but not impossible to stuff up two (especially 2 x top 5).

I did some very rudimentary number crunching trying to fit a model to the % chance a player has a 150+ game career (drafts from 2000-2015). Maybe not the best metric & the data is very volatile but will do for now...

Pick 1 - expected: 98% (reality: 81%)
Pick 2 - 85% (69%)
Pick 5 - 68% (69%)
Pick 10 - 54% (31%)
Pick 20 - 41% (33%)
Pick 30 - 33% (35%)
Pick 40 - 29% (57%*)
Pick 50 - 24% (21%)
Pick 60 - 21% (17%)

* the old F/S rules distort this a bit (Ablett jnr, Jobe Watson). We balanced it out with Brodie Murdoch and Brandon White.

This is a bit at odds with the AFL's pick value model, which weights early picks much higher (they must factor in the higher ceiling of early picks). 5 x pick 60s has the same chance of producing a 150-gamer as a single pick 1. The AFL points system equates pick 1 to 20 pick 60s.

Some scenarios assuming Battle stays / goes. Gold Coast currently have picks 8 and 9 and an academy product who is seen by some as top 5 - perhaps our best chance of acquiring some more picks.

150 gamers	4	8 + 9	4 + 5	4 + 8 + 9
3	0%	0%	0%	24%
2+	0%	33%	49%	69%
1+	72%	82%	91%	95%
0	28%	18%	9%	5%

Even if Battle stays, turning pick 4 into picks 8 and 9 seems like a favourable option - particularly given the deep nature of the draft which should still have some perceived quality available at that stage.

All in all, I hope we don't get too attached to our early pick(s) and see if we can grab a few more darts. Taking five players in the ND last year was a great start and hopefully that trend continues.

I think a lot of clubs would be keen to do the same unfortunately. Adelaide already dangling theirs. GC are the interesting one. They might trade ahead of Lombard.

Live trading should be interesting. If a good player is still on the board at our pick after slipping through there might be clubs willing to give overs for the pick. Trainor is probably the one that would get interest and maybe some one like FOS or Jagga. I think we'd take the mids though.

The other thing with the high picks is they are relying on games played rather than the elite traits the top end guys usually possess that stand out above their peers. You almost need to feed in data for AAs, Brownlow votes, rising stars etc. There is an over representation for awards from top 10 picks I imagine.

 

[gringo2011]

It’s because at AFL level Chito just gets lost in the structures of an AFL midfield.

The feedback to him is that the game passes him by.

When he plays forward. It’s very simple.

See ball. Win ball.

Doesn’t have to worry about his man running the other way. Doesn’t get lost when it’s his time to go etc.

So what’s happened is that we have effectively developed an elite medium tall forward (struggling with form) - but an average midfielder at this point. With Owens being so young in his development. They want to focus on building on the area where he looks exceptional and in time that should allow greater midfield time. Also helps that all our other tall forwards are broken.

But it won’t be Chito the mid anytime soon - which is why those talking it up as something they would like and how it would impact trading and drafting are very off base currently.

Future state. Maybe. Probably.

Now. Short term. Nope.

I remember in what I think might have been his first game, he burst out of the middle with the ball and pumped it inside 50. Unfortunately those type of players that get let-off the defensive and minding aspects of the game are usually the absolute stars. Lyon probably never lets even those guys off.

Hopefully at some point he develops into a dominant forward and they start feeding him through the mids like a Jake Stringer or Zurhar.

 

[stavro#4]

I remember in what I think might have been his first game, he burst out of the middle with the ball and pumped it inside 50. Unfortunately those type of players that get let-off the defensive and minding aspects of the game are usually the absolute stars. Lyon probably never lets even those guys off.

Hopefully at some point he develops into a dominant forward and they start feeding him through the mids like a Jake Stringer or Zurhar.

This is exactly what I think will happen.

Pou I’ve always said will go the other way and be a Mid who goes forward. Like a Bont