Autopsy AFL 2024 Round 17 - Cats v Hawks Sat July 6th 4:35pm AEST (GMHBA)

[rei154]

Henry certainly won't be kicking 3 goals against an accountable opponent.

That's one edge lost to Geelong.

He will still be good for two Joe to the Goose out the back goals at least

 

[Mr Meow]

He will still be good for two Joe to the Goose out the back goals at least

Against Sicily he'd be good for 4 of those. Against the other Hawks defenders he might snatch 1.

 

[cama30]

Against Sicily he'd be good for 4 of those. Against the other Hawks defenders he might snatch 1.

All push in the back's that get missed

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Against Sicily he'd be good for 4 of those. Against the other Hawks defenders he might snatch 1.

Sicilys DL% has been under 10-15% in the last two months. 16% last year. He is elite defensively whilst being able to dominate offensively, stop talking rubbish

 

[Mr Meow]

Sicilys DL% has been under 10-15% in the last two months. 16% last year. He is elite defensively whilst being able to dominate offensively, stop talking rubbish

Like I said, I almost guarantee Henry will score less goals while on a more accountable defender than the 3 or 4 a Sicily match up makes probable. Henry will be quiet. It's a win for the Hawks with this particular match up.

 

[Mr Meow]

All push in the back's that get missed

Sicily does infringe a lot so you're right, there's a couple of goals at least that will now need to be earned the hard way.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Like I said, I almost guarantee Henry will score less goals while on a more accountable defender than the 3 or 4 a Sicily match up makes probable. Henry will be quiet. It's a win for the Hawks with this particular match up.

What are you on about

 

[Cleansweep17]

I’ve revised my tip.

GMHBA by 27

 

[Mr Meow]

What are you on about

Don't you dare raise your voice at me.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Don't you dare raise your voice at me.

 

[cryptor]

Hawks performed well without Sicily AND Scrimshaw against Port Adelaide in Adelaide the week after Port beat Geelong at GMHBA.

If June form lines carry into July then I'm confident Hawks will win.

 

[hawkman]

Ginnivan confirmed out

 

[NetworkNerd]

Geelong by 72 points

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Dominate the midfield like we have been and we should win it. Strangely the skinny ground should actually suit us

And also Kardinia park hasn't really suited us we brought in Cameron and changed the game style up. Our win-loss is better there than elsewhere this year but if you normalise that for quality of the opposition you'll find we're probably a better mcg team.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Will Steve "MC Hammer" Hocking take over the mic again after half time if the Cats are 5 goals down?

He goes by Lara now

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Of all the algorithms and data sites that feed the Squiggle, only 2 of those 24 sites have the Hawks winning.

Cats at home with no Sicily to contain or lead our backline, Cats would have to be favorites.

Those algorithms almost always favour us regardless of the actual odds. There's some kind of bias in the data set but I don't know enough about it to understand it

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Since Rd6 2007 Geelong have played Melbourne opposition at GMHBA 55 times for 50 wins (91% win rate)

In only two of those losses were Geelong the better ranked club (Melbourne 2015 and Carlton 2020)

So yes, a massive upset if Hawks win.

There's a selection bias there though, if the game is expected to be close it gets moved to the MCG. You're taking all the expected top 4 bouts out of it and leaving games against North melbourne in

 

[CatToTheFuture]

No Sicily no Hawthorn.

Everyone is saying no Sicily no Hawthorn but I'm just looking at Will Days win-loss of 9-2 for the season where the only losses were to Sydney and a Port side away where you led all game bar the last 7 seconds.

I would be considering the hard tag there

 

[hawkman]

Everyone is saying no Sicily no Hawthorn but I'm just looking at Will Days win-loss of 9-2 for the season where the only losses were to Sydney and a Port side away where you led all game bar the last 7 seconds.

I would be considering the hard tag there

We also won against St Kilda without him. Lost the Port game without Sicily and Scrimshaw

Would be genuinely disappointed if we don't win as we should control the midfield

 

[CatToTheFuture]

We also won against St Kilda without him. Lost the Port game without Sicily and Scrimshaw

Would be genuinely disappointed if we don't win as we should control the midfield

Yeah our midfield is puss, but if we can at least pressure the ball carrier into turnovers we should get a bit of rebound. I really couldn't call the outcome

 

[Towmotar]

Cats should smoke us in a stroll.
We're due for an L, and the addition of Lewis into an unpredictable and very functional forward line doesn't come close to making up for the loss of Sicily.
Either way it's Hawks v Cats and as usual I've planned my weekend around it.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

Far too many Hawthorn people on the concourse.
Would rather have not redeveloped at all if it meant letting more of these brown and gold peasants into the stands

 

[sawyer]

Cats swing a late change, smartest man in the room at it again

 

[hawkman]

Far too many Hawthorn people on the concourse.
Would rather have not redeveloped at all if it meant letting more of these brown and gold peasants into the stands

200m to be nearly be outnumbered at your own stadium

 

[dazbroncos]

Cats swing a late change, smartest man in the room at it again

late change was Knevitt out with illness and Clark back in.
Hardly a change based on taking the piss but nice try.

GO Catters