Anthony Albanese - How long? -2-

[Saint]

Do you really believe what you posted? Do you believe inflation, which is behind the cost of living crisis, is solely caused by "Gross profiteering by large corporations"?

Australia’s cost-of-living crisis has reached a critical juncture

Without policies to raise productivity, fiscal spending will increase inflation and require higher interest rates or higher inflation if interest rates do not respond.

www.afr.com

It's mostly caused by that.


It sure as hell isn't wages or taxes.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Do you really believe what you posted? Do you believe inflation, which is behind the cost of living crisis, is solely caused by "Gross profiteering by large corporations"?

Australia’s cost-of-living crisis has reached a critical juncture

Without policies to raise productivity, fiscal spending will increase inflation and require higher interest rates or higher inflation if interest rates do not respond.

www.afr.com

Yes it's a key driver
There is little evidence that wages are driving this round of inflation compared to other historical episodes of inflation

 

[faible]

Do you really believe what you posted? Do you believe inflation, which is behind the cost of living crisis, is solely caused by "Gross profiteering by large corporations"?

Australia’s cost-of-living crisis has reached a critical juncture

Without policies to raise productivity, fiscal spending will increase inflation and require higher interest rates or higher inflation if interest rates do not respond.

www.afr.com

If you read the ABC article I linked, the economic research listed attributes ~ 2/3 of the inflation to corporate profits.

 

[Saint]

Mixed bag of results, really. A lot of Sydney and Melbourne becomes more marginal for the major parties.

FED25 Election – New Seat Margins and Electoral Pendulum

At the 2025 Federal election, more than half of seats in the House of Representatives will be contested on new electoral boundaries. In this post I summarise the state of play going into the electi…

antonygreen.com.au

 

[Sttew]

If you read the ABC article I linked, the economic research listed attributes ~ 2/3 of the inflation to corporate profits.

No surprise there. Who does one believe?

The RBA says:

A rise in profit margins may be a causal factor in the increase in inflation if firms facing limited competition have taken advantage of higher inflation to raise their markup over input costs. Alternatively, rather than a driver of inflation, increased profit margins could simply be a by-product of strong demand in markets where firms are price-takers and prices have risen to match demand to limited supply, or margins could have increased temporarily in anticipation of future cost increases.

There is little evidence that there has been a broad-based increase in domestic non-mining profit margins, suggesting that changes in domestic profit margins have not been a significant independent cause of the increase in aggregate CPI inflation. For example, outside of the mining sector – where output prices reflect the balance of demand and supply in global markets – aggregate profits have grown at a similar pace to labour income, with some variation between non-mining sectors. [3] At the firm level, there has been little change in the distribution of margins. These observations are consistent with firms having generally passed on higher costs to maintain their profit margins, and aggregate inflation having been driven by the balance of demand and supply factors – rather than changes in firms’ pricing power.

chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2023/may/pdf/box-b-have-business-profits-contributed-to-inflation.pdf

 

[faible]

No surprise there. Who does one believe?

The RBA says:

A rise in profit margins may be a causal factor in the increase in inflation if firms facing limited competition have taken advantage of higher inflation to raise their markup over input costs. Alternatively, rather than a driver of inflation, increased profit margins could simply be a by-product of strong demand in markets where firms are price-takers and prices have risen to match demand to limited supply, or margins could have increased temporarily in anticipation of future cost increases.

There is little evidence that there has been a broad-based increase in domestic non-mining profit margins, suggesting that changes in domestic profit margins have not been a significant independent cause of the increase in aggregate CPI inflation. For example, outside of the mining sector – where output prices reflect the balance of demand and supply in global markets – aggregate profits have grown at a similar pace to labour income, with some variation between non-mining sectors. [3] At the firm level, there has been little change in the distribution of margins. These observations are consistent with firms having generally passed on higher costs to maintain their profit margins, and aggregate inflation having been driven by the balance of demand and supply factors – rather than changes in firms’ pricing power.

chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2023/may/pdf/box-b-have-business-profits-contributed-to-inflation.pdf

Personally, I'd be taking that ABC one over the RBA.

The RBA has one lever to pull, and IMO that informs their worldview by trying to bring everything back to that lever.

Mortgage holders have been smashed to oblivion by the RBA because that's their only lever, whereas the Federal Government could do so much more that doesn't result in the low-to-middle income section of society wearing the brunt of the pain.

 

[Gavin Excell]

CW Bank would have just assumed like all their ilk raising prices/fees would just go through unchallenged

Their CEO seems genuinely shocked at the reaction

 

[SaintsSeptember]

No surprise there. Who does one believe?

The RBA says:

A rise in profit margins may be a causal factor in the increase in inflation if firms facing limited competition have taken advantage of higher inflation to raise their markup over input costs. Alternatively, rather than a driver of inflation, increased profit margins could simply be a by-product of strong demand in markets where firms are price-takers and prices have risen to match demand to limited supply, or margins could have increased temporarily in anticipation of future cost increases.

There is little evidence that there has been a broad-based increase in domestic non-mining profit margins, suggesting that changes in domestic profit margins have not been a significant independent cause of the increase in aggregate CPI inflation. For example, outside of the mining sector – where output prices reflect the balance of demand and supply in global markets – aggregate profits have grown at a similar pace to labour income, with some variation between non-mining sectors. [3] At the firm level, there has been little change in the distribution of margins. These observations are consistent with firms having generally passed on higher costs to maintain their profit margins, and aggregate inflation having been driven by the balance of demand and supply factors – rather than changes in firms’ pricing power.

chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2023/may/pdf/box-b-have-business-profits-contributed-to-inflation.pdf

Working for a manufacturer with most of the materials and components coming from Europe or Asia, a lot of the prices of materials , including steel, have increased substantially. We've actually been pretty slow in compensating for that by putting up prices to our customers. Some of the increases are still set to happen.
Our margins are not going up.

 

[Bunk Moreland]

Without necessarily agreeing or disagreeing with any of that, if you are comfortable with "there is no plan" with regards to the Liberal's nuclear policy, then in the interest of consistency, it would also be fair comment to say the current government has no plan to address the cost of living.

It’s worse than that, they have a bloody plan to increase cost of living.

 

[Saint]

It’s worse than that, they have a bloody plan to increase cost of living.

Their actual plan would reduce costs in the short term, they'll burn more coal, and it'll become more expensive in the medium and long term when renewables are even cheaper in generation per KW, but the Libs will have signed up to some god-awful 20-year deal with coal and gas generators.

 

[AvantGardener]

The first domino to fall. I expect many more to follow in the coming 18 months, including the big one of dopey Albo.

Agree that Minns is the ALP's best asset by the length of the Randwick straight. He is literally the only leftist polly with a shred of credibility and integrity.

Well well well

 

[Kram]

Mortgage holders have been smashed to oblivion by the RBA

Please...

 

[Rotayjay]

The RBA jacking up interest rates would have hit the hip pocket of a lot of people to a far greater extent than tax cuts helped it.

Our system is falling to keep up with the level of wealth inequality and globalisation, and neither major party is doing a lot to change that.

The LNP won't do a thing about it.

The ALP might do some stuff around the edges, but I don't think they offer any kind of radically economically progressive agenda for change which is IMO what needs to be considered.

Our system isn't at all equipped to handle the insane levels of assets and wealth a small portion of society has, and the level of ability for major companies to profit shift off-shore.

Australia is really entering ****ed up territory now. Those who purchased property 5 years ago are doing well, those who did 10 years ago are doing better, those who did 20 years ago are doing better still, and so on. Meanwhile those who haven't yet (or will never be able to) buy property are increasingly left behind. A few thousand in the bank versus a two million dollars in assets for doing nothing.

When a dual-income couple cannot afford to buy a home (and generally they want a house to have kids in), something's not right. Like someone said, is it too much to ask if you want a middle-class lifestyle on a middle-class income? Do we want an Australia where you need to be in the top (say) 30% of earners to own a home?

 

[NSWCROW]

Mixed bag of results, really. A lot of Sydney and Melbourne becomes more marginal for the major parties.

FED25 Election – New Seat Margins and Electoral Pendulum

At the 2025 Federal election, more than half of seats in the House of Representatives will be contested on new electoral boundaries. In this post I summarise the state of play going into the electi…

antonygreen.com.au

Rowland in my electorate of Greenway in from 11.5 to 7.9

 

[CakeEater]

Rowland in my electorate of Greenway in from 11.5 to 7.9

Whereas the only Lib in a Federal position of power is into 0.9% in Moore.

 

[faible]

Please...

They haven’t?

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

If Albanese wins the next election he should celebrate, then step aside

If Anthony Albanese loses next year, which once seemed improbable and now looks possible, he will shoulder much of the blame and his legacy will be trashed.

www.smh.com.au

Apropos the discussion here a couple of days back, if this article is about anything it’s about the insanely biased media we suffer in Oz.

I’m one of many who are disappointed by Albanese, but basically to get a positive endorsement across the whole media spectrum, he has to be twice as good as his Liberal opponent.

And while Dutton is truly appalling, that’s still simply not possible.

 

[peetoo]

Australia is really entering ****ed up territory now. Those who purchased property 5 years ago are doing well, those who did 10 years ago are doing better, those who did 20 years ago are doing better still, and so on. Meanwhile those who haven't yet (or will never be able to) buy property are increasingly left behind. A few thousand in the bank versus a two million dollars in assets for doing nothing.

When a dual-income couple cannot afford to buy a home (and generally they want a house to have kids in), something's not right. Like someone said, is it too much to ask if you want a middle-class lifestyle on a middle-class income? Do we want an Australia where you need to be in the top (say) 30% of earners to own a home?

Let’s not blame a particular generation though. There’s plenty doing it tough at all ages

Also most people entering workforce today will accrue 10% super levy all their working lives. Even at average wages that will be more than a few thousand at retirement.

Boomers didn’t get that

 

[Richard Pryor]

Albanese miles better than anything Dutton has to offer.

For many people though opposition promises and talk are always better than what is currently on offer. Then the cycle repeats 4 years later.

Especially with the new Tony Abbott method where you offer up very little in the way of a vision and just spray diarrhoea all over the other party. Works pretty well for the LNP when they're in office as well.

 

[Richard Pryor]

If Albanese wins the next election he should celebrate, then step aside

If Anthony Albanese loses next year, which once seemed improbable and now looks possible, he will shoulder much of the blame and his legacy will be trashed.

www.smh.com.au

Apropos the discussion here a couple of days back, if this article is about anything it’s about the insanely biased media we suffer in Oz.

I’m one of many who are disappointed by Albanese, but basically to get a positive endorsement across the whole media spectrum, he has to be twice as good as his Liberal opponent.

And while Dutton is truly appalling, that’s still simply not possible.

Very true but I think he's made the same mistake that Rudd has spoken about in trying to lead from the centre and play ball with the Murdoch media machine which will never work for Labor.

The Obama strategy of governing on eggshells out of fear of alienating swing voters and corporations is the path to ruin for centre left parties.

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

Very true but I think he's made the same mistake that Rudd has spoken about in trying to lead from the centre and play ball with the Murdoch media machine which will never work for Labor.

The Obama strategy of governing on eggshells out of fear of alienating swing voters and corporations is the path to ruin for centre left parties.

Totally agree. But for any politician who decides to swim against the Murdoch/Stokes etc tide, the pressure every hour of every day in office must be relentless.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Totally agree. But for any politician who decides to swim against the Murdoch/Stokes etc tide, the pressure every hour of every day in office must be relentless.

I wonder sometimes at press conferences etc when faced with a Murdoch gotcha question that Labor simply and publicly acknowledge that they - Murdoch - barrack for the Liberal Party and therefore note the direction of their questioning

 

[Saint]

Totally agree. But for any politician who decides to swim against the Murdoch/Stokes etc tide, the pressure every hour of every day in office must be relentless.

This might still be a good scare tactic if Daniel Andrews hadn't shown it's not really a problem any more. \He just didn't go on the conservative radio stations and didn't care what the Herald Sun said about him. Because the only people who listen to conservative radio and read the Herald Sun are already going to vote Liberal, and are about 20% of the population.

Albanese should follow Andrews' media playbook. Hell, hire the same people, cos whoever is advising him at the moment is leading him to failure. There's no way Andrews would have got caught in front of that image.

If they want to speak to you, they can attend the press conference, ask their question, and be told precisely how and where to f-off.

 

[Golden_6]

Let’s not blame a particular generation though. There’s plenty doing it tough at all ages

Also most people entering workforce today will accrue 10% super levy all their working lives. Even at average wages that will be more than a few thousand at retirement.

Boomers didn’t get that

Let’s not act like Boomers didn’t get super.

Superannuation guarantee was introduced in 1992. Even the earliest Boomers (1946) would have still had 20 years of contributions at typically peak earning capacity years. The latest Boomers (1964) would have had it for practically their entire working lives.

 

[zumahawk]

Especially with the new Tony Abbott method where you offer up very little in the way of a vision and just spray diarrhoea all over the other party. Works pretty well for the LNP when they're in office as well.

This works well in politics in general unfortunately. The more sane, articulate and competent people are the less votes they win.