Autopsy Autopsy V Carlton

[Reginald0]

They thrashed us last yr and with even less of a functioning Backline they thrashed us again
The critical problem is we can’t stick to a system but it is quite likely they are actually pretty good this year
Still hoping Hardeman and George will step up at some stage

 

[Gasometer]

I reckon this thread is cooked

 

[giantroo]

 

[DuckYeah]

Whats this expected score shite?

 

[giantroo]

 

[Sphynx]

Whats this expected score shite?

Expected score based on the difficulty of their scoring positions.

I.E if you have kicked goals from all corners you will exceed your expected score, if you have missed some sitters from 20m out directly in front, will be under your expected score.

Not all behinds and goals are equal.

 

[giantroo]

Whats this expected score shite?

The Deep Dive: The 'Xscores' ladder shock, the best and worst kicks for goal

Who are the league's most accurate teams, and which players have a case of the goal-kicking yips? Champion Data's latest 'expected scores' numbers reveal what the ladder should really look like, 2022's most difficult goal of the year and more.

www.espn.com.au

Expected accuracy is a way of measuring the likelihood of a player scoring a goal, taking into account the shot type -- such as set shots, snaps, and on the run -- location on the field, and the pressure at the point of the kick. Every shot gets compared to the competition average across the same shots attempted since 2013, with the lower the expected accuracy the more difficult a player's shot is - a shot from directly in front would have a higher expected accuracy than an unlikely checkside that defies the odds from the boundary.

By using expected scores we can determine how accurate teams and players are (expected accuracy compared to real accuracy, and expected score from shots taken vs. a team's actual score).

 

[Psicosis]

Carlton provided a blue print on how to dismantle Northball. Beat up our mids at contest, tag LDU, clog the corridor and transition quickly on rebound.

Need the master coach to work out how we overcome this as this is what every club is going to do against us.

Yes the umpiring was horrendous. Our young mids got beaten by much bigger bodies.

• Equally our 23-28 year olds (aka our leaders) were poor. Reminiscent of the second half against Freo.
• We concede far too much on d50 exits (Kingy pointed out it’s still 4+ goals compared to average), which means we effectively go into a game with a 4 goal handicap.
• We might be stacked with half forwards but none of them work hard enough on transition (offensively or defensively). Compare this to Geelongs half forwards, it’s damning. It’s at the point where if you cannot run you cannot play on a flank. It’s one of the reason sides can so easily transition from their d50 to f50 against us.
• Our wingman are not working. Wings and forward flanks are so important in transition and we are seriously missing a beat. I’d be pushing Bailey up there. Something needs to change. It’s another reason sides can transition so easily.

Three out of these four are in the coaches box and will help limit the exposure of our back 6. We can throw Sam Taylor

15

Sam Taylor

Age

25

Ht

198cm

Wt

95kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.0

3star

K

4.6

2star

HB

5.4

4star

M

3.3

3star

T

2.1

4star

MG

130.5

2star

D

8.0

2star

K

2.5

1star

HB

5.5

3star

M

2.8

3star

T

2.5

3star

MG

60.8

1star

D

8.6

3star

K

3.0

1star

HB

5.6

4star

M

1.2

2star

T

2.8

5star

MG

110.8

2star

and Tom Barrass

37

Tom Barrass

Age

29

Ht

197cm

Wt

96kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.2

3star

K

8.8

3star

HB

3.4

3star

M

6.1

5star

T

0.9

3star

MG

158.5

3star

D

10.1

3star

K

8.0

3star

HB

2.1

2star

M

5.6

5star

T

0.3

1star

MG

139.6

2star

D

11.4

3star

K

7.2

3star

HB

4.2

4star

M

5.2

5star

T

0.4

3star

MG

160.0

3star

back there but we will still get torched if we don’t address them.

 

[fusion]

Expected score based on the difficulty of their scoring positions.

I.E if you have kicked goals from all corners you will exceed your expected score, if you have missed some sitters from 20m out directly in front, will be under your expected score.

Not all behinds and goals are equal.

What a crock of statistical rubbish. Bad kicking is bad football. So if you miss a goal from 20m out, versus missing the pass to the player who is standing in the same area, it's still bad football.

 

[TennisPlayerAndy]

What a crock of statistical rubbish. Bad kicking is bad football. So if you miss a goal from 20m out, versus missing the pass to the player who is standing in the same area, it's still bad football.

It’s the further Americanising of the sport.

 

[My Left Foote]

It’s the further Americanising of the sport.

Not American at all, its origins are English Football (soccer).

 

[giantroo]

 

[Moti]

One thing is for sure, some of our players need to join Harry at the Sprint Project, he moves very well now.

 

[King Corey]

View attachment 1947049

Disappointed no umpires got in the votes.

 

[TennisPlayerAndy]

View attachment 1947049

To be expected really.

With no Key defend….

Nevermind.

 

[Chadwiko]

Disappointed no umpires got in the votes.

Chadwiko 'likes' this post.

 

[King Corey]

Our forward entries annoy more than any other line. The midfield either wins or loses, the defence typically fights to it's best ability.

But watching us gain ascendancy only to ruin it with seemingly no system at times is my biggest frustration in games.

 

[Epictetus]

Our forward entries annoy more than any other line. The midfield either wins or loses, the defence typically fights to it's best ability.

But watching us gain ascendancy only to ruin it with seemingly no system at times is my biggest frustration in games.

Agree with this. And it's not spoken about enough.

It's not a talent laden line relative to the comp, but it should be performing better than it is. The 2014/15/16 teams obviously had better forwards, but there was also a clear plan and forward identity.

 

[TennisPlayerAndy]

Agree with this. And it's not spoken about enough.

It's not a talent laden line relative to the comp, but it should be performing better than it is. The 2014/15/16 teams obviously had better forwards, but there was also a clear plan and forward identity.

We have the deadly combo of being awful converting F50 entries and preventing scores from D50 entries.

It’s truly ****ed.

 

[My Left Foote]

We have the deadly combo of being awful converting F50 entries and preventing scores from D50 entries.

It’s truly ****ed.

Just combine both and refer to them as F****D 50s

 

[Themanbun]

Our forward entries annoy more than any other line. The midfield either wins or loses, the defence typically fights to it's best ability.

But watching us gain ascendancy only to ruin it with seemingly no system at times is my biggest frustration in games.

At least we generally have people to kick to in the forward line now, so that's an improvement

 

[King Corey]

At least we generally have people to kick to in the forward line now, so that's an improvement

What's your favourite forward line play?

The "let's all stand still and watch Nick Larkey being molested"?

The "let's pick out the defender on his own and leave all his options unmanned too for a fast break?"

The "let's all fly and spoil each other"?

Or my recent favourite "let's break into 50 in numbers then dribble or chip kick it 3 metres short of the goalsquare"?

 

[TennisPlayerAndy]

What's your favourite forward line play?

The "let's all stand still and watch Nick Larkey being molested"?

The "let's pick out the defender on his own and leave all his options unmanned too for a fast break?"

The "let's all fly and spoil each other"?

Or my recent favourite "let's break into 50 in numbers then dribble or chip kick it 3 metres short of the goalsquare"?

‘Let’s have set shots from beyond my kicking range’ is a personal favourite.

 

[King Corey]

‘Let’s have set shots from beyond my kicking range’ is a personal favourite.

To be fair they're all beyond our kicking ran....

 

[King Corey]

View attachment 1947049

Just revisiting this and stating the obvious - this is really disappointing.

I don't like it but can accept Carlton are currently the stronger team.

But as per the LDU thread there are several players in the experience range who should've been capable of polling votes in a loss. The way Anthony Stevens, Peter Bell or Andrew Swallow would've.

I'm looking at:

Larkey- has some excuses
Simpkin
McDonald
LDU
Corr
Scott
Tucker
Fisher
Stephenson
Zurhaar

This is the group who should be making even a minor impact week in, week out regardless of outcome.