Bluemour Discussion Thread XII - Facts Not Welcome (cont in pt 13)

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What is accurate estimation of the probability we land Shiel and Gaff. Is it something along the lines of:
Shiel 80%
Gaff 30%
Too long in the wilderness, we have to re-emerge soon!
as nicely formatted a sixth post as there has ever been...........
 
MS3 said it was us or giants, Barrass only mentioned the saints big coin,reg said he is ours if he leaves gws, waite said us or saints

God damn going to be pissed if those arrogant hawk dawks pinch him
Will be a bummer if we miss out on him, but not much more we can do.

At the end of the day its the player that decides, and no-one really knows what's going on in Shiel's head and whether he's made any decision yet.
 
Will be a bummer if we miss out on him, but not much more we can do.

At the end of the day its the player that decides, and no-one really knows what's going on in Shiel's head and whether he's made any decision yet.

Exactly right - our informants only know what Shiel and/or his manager tell the Club. We don’t know what Shiel is actually thinking and we don’t know if a club will come in later and swoop in or change their offer.

But having said all that I just don’t see why he would pick the Hawks. They have a great coach and Mitchell will be a great midfield coach, but they don’t have the players to be a top 4 team and there’s just too many gaps to fill in through trades. Yes they finished Top 4 this year but they weren’t a top 4 team and will likely stall in the 4-12 range for the next few years. I also think Hawks prefer Wingard over Shiel but aren’t sure if he will pick them over Dogs - or whether Port will be interested in anything Hawks can offer in terms of trade.

I can see why Shiel would join the Swans - he seems to like it up there and they are a contender. I can see why he would join say the Demons but they aren’t interested. Saints are similar to Blues near bottom of ladder but able to pay the big bucks - you’d imagine he would choose us over the Saints. North and * could still be options depending on what happens with Gaff and Martin. I think we should remain quietly confident but wary of the Hawks, Swans and *. My best guess is he is leaving and if so we have a 70% chance of getting him. I used to think it was 95%.

Part of me still believes he wants people to think he is considering many clubs and that he wants us Blue supporters to feel like we won the lottery when he chooses us - even though he was always coming to us.


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What is accurate estimation of the probability we land Shiel and Gaff. Is it something along the lines of:
Shiel 80%
Gaff 30%
Too long in the wilderness, we have to re-emerge soon!
I'm 50/50 whether Shiel gets to us. He probably prefers to stay and needs convincing to come to Carlton. Giants and Connors want us though so I'm hopeful, as is the club.
 
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