Rumour Bluemour Discussion XXXV - 'Loopy' Season has begun

[mochacinolatte]

And so would we …

Curnow/TDK/Kemp

(with Petracca exploding out of the centre)

I can see people making that argument.

You can see teams double teaming Curnow this year and he struggled a lot.

People underestimate Harry Mckays contesting marking when we need a bail out kick down the line.

Kemp with 2 game sample size as fwd is still questionable. Looks suited to be the 3rd tall option.

TDK is better Ruckman floating fwd.

 

[Red Bull]

I feel like this is going to get more and more difficult as time goes on. The talent pool is already stretched and we're about to add another team in.

Dynasties are going to become even harder.

Yep,
Premierships these days are incredibly hard to win.
You have to take your chance when you can.
30 years is a long time between drinks.
I’d happily add 17 now and do our best from there …

 

[BringFevBack2021]

The Filth also had McStay until he got injured in the Prelim

Dan McStay has never kicked more than 28 goals in a year, hardly a true KPF

 

[mochacinolatte]

For starters, I don’t consider it a huge risk to our future. If we trade McKay and a first-rounder, it’s hardly putting our future at risk - even if it’s a first and a second. Let’s not forget we’re bringing in Trac after all.

What is the plan otherwise? In a few years, Cripps is coming to an end, the 2015 draft not far behind him … if we haven’t won one in their time, we’ve unquestionably screwed it. We should have achieved more than we have by now but we keep losing to teams with more powerful midfields.

Do you start again hoping for a different outcome?

Of course you go “all-in” (if that’s what you want to call it) now. We’ve got stars on every line - the real screw up in our recruiting is that we don’t have a top 3 midfield in the comp, possibly not even top 4 or 5 … and they’ve had 10+ years to get there while we’ve had Cripps. We win the midfield, we win the flag… and we would have a midfield equal to the Lions of 2001-2004.

People talk like going for Trac is the high-risk option. My view is that it’s the safe option.

If bringing Trac in doesn’t result in a flag, then, without question, the whole Club and the last 10 years has been a failure… but I doubt it would come to that.

Interesting thought, I think trading this year first and next year won't jeopardise the future since we got a lot of youth in the VFL.

I think our midfield is really good. We were top 3 heading into the byes. Walsh was humming (had a dip in form). Hewett + Cripps were doing most of the inside work brillaintly (Idk why he was dropped???). I expected Cerra to take his game to the next level from last year but hamstring cruels his year. I just feel like this year was just a very unlucky year in terms of injuries.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Can Petrecca kick 50+ goals a year? I don't who is replacing that scoring power and don't come with me Brodie Kemp argument. We not getting that sort of production with him. At best we get a 30-35 a year.

Why does he have to kick 50+ goals a year?

Lol that's ridiculous, Harry only kicked over 50 once... when he won the Coleman with 58...

Apples and oranges anyway... Trac will kick his fair share of goals (certainly more than our other mids) and he will create many more as well...

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Interesting thought, I think trading this year first and next year won't jeopardise the future since we got a lot of youth in the VFL.

I think our midfield is really good. We were top 3 heading into the byes. Walsh was humming (had a dip in form). Hewett + Cripps were doing most of the inside work brillaintly (Idk why he was dropped???). I expected Cerra to take his game to the next level from last year but hamstring cruels his year. I just feel like this year was just a very unlucky year in terms of injuries.

We've been saying that nearly every year for a long time now...

 

[Worm4]

Absolutely
Better to have tried and failed than to have never tried at all.
If a club isn’t prepared to put it all on the line for a premiership when they have the chance, then what really is their purpose …

Yep put it on the line now.
Campos x 2 , cody walker will form a good midfield with Walsh and TDK once trac and cripps are done.

 

[Stamos]

I feel like this is going to get more and more difficult as time goes on. The talent pool is already stretched and we're about to add another team in.

Dynasties are going to become even harder.

Aside from seeing 2 3-flag dynasties in the last 11 years, it's not about the difficulty of building a dynasty.
It's about building a solid consistent list/foundation to give yourself the best chance at winning a flag, by giving yourself more chances of winning, by broadening and extending your window.
Like Geelong & Sydney do.

 

[mochacinolatte]

Why does he have to kick 50+ goals a year?

Lol that's ridiculous, Harry only kicked over 50 once... when he won the Coleman with 58...

Apples and oranges anyway... Trac will kick his fair share of goals (certainly more than our other mids) and he will create many more as well...

Because someone needs to make the difference of kicking a winning score. If we want to go back to finer details lets say 45+ goals a year in which Harry has done for the past 4 years (except 2023). Trac has average 23+ in the past 4 years. We need to make 22 goals quota. Which reliable fwd do we have on the list can achieve that difference?

 

[Stamos]

Dan McStay has never kicked more than 28 goals in a year, hardly a true KPF

Last year he kicked 20 in 14 games (2 of which he was subbed off injured).

 

[Blue_Fusion]

If that individual was a KPD like Aleer, and we had a close to fully uninjured list, and Voss released the handbrake...
we'd probably be flag favourites this year.

We don't need Petracca to win a flag or 2.

But ignoring the draft for the next 2 years would be reckless.

Not sure we'd be ignoring the draft...

2024 - Campo twins
2025 - Gresham
2026 - Cody

... Four talented players there, plus other picks we'll still have through trades too...

 

[Jimmae]

When is it time to GO ?

2021. We went, now we're here.

Let's not blow the list apart and potentially fracture things for maybe one flag, particularly if we don't bother to address the core issues of said list.

Lots to play out with how Petracca is valued amongst those in the market for his services, but the proposed price is too high.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Because someone needs to make the difference of kicking a winning score. If we want to go back to finer details lets say 45+ goals a year in which Harry has done for the past 4 years (except 2023). Trac has average 23+ in the past 4 years. We need to make 22 goals quota. Which reliable fwd do we have on the list can achieve that difference?

Yeah but it's not as black and white as comparing how many goals each of them kicks...

Especially when one is a key forward and the other is a mid...

 

[charred_fate]

Aside from seeing 2 3-flag dynasties in the last 11 years, it's not about the difficulty of building a dynasty.
It's about building a solid consistent list/foundation to give yourself the best chance at winning a flag, by giving yourself more chances of winning, by broadening and extending your window.
Like Geelong & Sydney do.

Geelong especially take the opportunities when they present - Ottens, Danger, Jez, B Smith this year, O Henry etc.

 

[charred_fate]

I genuinely don’t think there has ever been a single scenario that has separated so clearly those on this board who can think intentionally, objectively, sensibly and broadly from those who are stuck, scarred, conservative and emotional … it’s fascinating stuff.

 

[BringFevBack2021]

Last year he kicked 20 in 14 games (2 of which he was subbed off injured).

So 1.6 a game if he was subbed out at the beginning of both of those matches would extrapolate out to 36 or so in a full year

I prefer the full sample size of 2018 - 2022 where he averaged .9 goals per game

Probably more indicative of his career, goal a game tall forward

Casboult is a higher end player than McStay

You don’t need two superstar KPF’s

Moot point anywho, McKay isn’t going anywhere

 

[mochacinolatte]

Yeah but it's not as black and white as comparing how many goals each of them kicks...

Especially when one is a key forward and the other is a mid...

Lets say we lose McKay, who on the market and our list can make the difference of 40+ goals a year?

Petrecca has to have an exceptional year to make up the scoring power in terms of goals and goal assists.

 

[Stamos]

Geelong especially take the opportunities when they present - Ottens, Danger, Jez, B Smith this year, O Henry etc.

Did they overpay for any of them?
Dangerfield and Cameron, their 2 biggest signings both took unders to go there.

Smith was a low cost free agent.
Ollie Henry cost a 2nd rounder and a kid who hasn't played a game.

Brad Ottens was a big trade, 2 late first rounders in 2004.

 

[mochacinolatte]

I genuinely don’t think there has ever been a single scenario that has divided so clearly those who can think intentionally, objectively, sensibly and broadly from those who are stuck, scarred, conservative and emotional … it’s fascinating stuff.

Pick a side!

 

[charred_fate]

Did they overpay for any of them?
Dangerfield and Cameron, their 2 biggest signings both took unders to go there.

Smith was a low cost free agent.
Ollie Henry cost a 2nd rounder and a kid who hasn't played a game.

Brad Ottens was a big trade, 2 late first rounders in 2004.

Not sure what the relevance of Danger’s and Cameron’s salaries are but they did give up 13, 15 and 20 for Cameron (which I think is unders). It‘s a bundle of picks that would certainly fit the argument many are raising here of putting their future on the line for a single player.

Doubt there’s much regret in Geelong town.

 

[smit_is]

I genuinely don’t think there has ever been a single scenario that has divided so clearly those who can think intentionally, objectively, sensibly and broadly from those who are stuck, scarred, conservative and emotional … it’s fascinating stuff.

Where were you hiding during the peak COVID years?

 

[Stamos]

Not sure what the relevance of Danger’s and Cameron’s salaries are but they did give up 13, 15 and 20 for Cameron (which I think is unders) but which would certainly fit the argument many are raising here of putting their future on the line for a single player.

Doubt there’s much regret in Geelong town.

Their salaries have everything to do with what list you can afford.

In the context of the Petracca argument, if he was willing to take a 40% pay cut, that would dramatically change the risk and value propositions of taking him on.

And they were able to do the trade for Cameron due to the trade they got for Tim Kelly, a player they didn't want to lose, but were paid the biggest pick trade of it's kind at the time.
And were then able to get a crazy trade with the Suns, the craziest traders, #27 for a future mid first priority pick.

None of that is viable or analogous in regards to Petracca.

 

[mochacinolatte]

Not sure what the relevance of Danger’s and Cameron’s salaries are but they did give up 13, 15 and 20 for Cameron (which I think is unders). It‘s a bundle of picks that would certainly fit the argument many are raising here of putting their future on the line for a single player.

Doubt there’s much regret in Geelong town.

To be fair one of the FRP was from Tim Kelly trade and Geelong got a lot of second rounders back for Cameron.

This brings more of interesting discussion, look at the Tim Kelly trade.

 

[SBYM]

The Hawks will win ZERO with their current list.

Given their history, this is a MASSIVE call.

As much as they shit me to tears, they know how to win stuff.

 

[charred_fate]

Their salaries have everything to do with what list you can afford.

In the context of the Petracca argument, if he was willing to take a 40% pay cut, that would dramatically change the risk and value propositions of taking him on.

And they were able to do the trade for Cameron due to the trade they got for Tim Kelly, a player they didn't want to lose, but were paid the biggest pick trade of it's kind at the time.
And were then able to get a crazy trade with the Suns, the craziest traders, #27 for a future mid first priority pick.

None of that is viable or analogous in regards to Petracca.

However you want to frame it, the fact remains that they get it done as do most of the successful teams. They identify weaknesses and act, pay up and win flags.

If we’re parting with H plus a few of our B/C graders, that leaves plenty of room for Trac’s salary.

We’ve had 10 years to find adequate support for Cripps and we’ve failed. We now may have the opportunity to land a superstar who will be even more damaging than Cripps, who will give us one of the most powerful midfields of all-time and who fills the gaping hole of a powerful, line-breaking, goal-kicking mid and some are turning their back on it like we’ve got everything under control. It’s laughable.

I’m confident that if Trac is serious and all else is ticked off, it gets done… and I seriously hope it does.

Thus, I’m tapping out of the discussion as it’s undoubtedly going to go round in circles for the next 6 weeks.