Opinion Can Dustin Martin be the GOAT? (Answer: no)

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Mr Meow said:
To be fair for the Richmond BnF, they have only had 4 good seasons since he debuted. Selwood at Geelong had 12. It's tougher and more meritorious to be on the podium when your side are one of the top few in the comp.

Ultimately winning it twice as an attacking midfielder isn't a big haul. Ablett did it twice (2/2 so 100%) in premiership sides alone and then 4 in non-finalist sides (a couple of times as the league MVP). He was also Geelong's best finals player in 2007-2010.

Martin once in a premiership side (33% of the time) and once in a non finalist side just isn't as impressive. He was Richmond's best player in finals 2017-2020. But his overall seasons weren't as consistently top top level.
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GAS won it once .. from only 5 good Geelong seasons in his career. Isn’t GAS on the podium or even top of your GOAT?

No flag. No Brownlow. 1 x B&F in a mostly average team across his career. So not sure your B&F rationale stacks up.

But I’m sure the B&F criteria you’ve placed on Martin is different for GAS for some weird and wonderful reason.


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Noidnadroj said:
GAS won it once .. from only 5 good Geelong seasons in his career. Isn’t GAS on the podium or even top of your GOAT?

No flag. No Brownlow. 1 x B&F in a mostly average team across his career. So not sure your B&F rationale stacks up.

But I’m sure the B&F criteria you’ve placed on Martin is different for GAS for some weird and wonderful reason.


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Click to expand...
Nope.

5 good seasons? 4x AA and 4x VFL team of the year (with another year at that level) says otherwise. He was picked in his favoured position (5 years as a HFF, 3 years as a FF) each time. It was a good but never outstanding Geelong side that made 4 grand finals, none of which would have occurred if GAS did not play for Geelong. So you were half right - they relied on GAS too heavily and he still almost singlehandedly snatched a flag in 1989. There aren't bonus points for Dustin winning flags in sides with excellent defences against okay sides, and GAS failing to with a non-existent defence against some scarily good premiers.

GAS was a poor trainer and abrasive character on the field - it's well acknowledged that his BnF and Brownlow voting were well below expected compared to his more well behaved peers. Over 1000 goals from 248 games - less than 100 as a genuine full forward - spoke to his greatness though.

We've already gone through all this though. Might be time to give the thread a rest and hope Martin brings his best form earlier next season. If he finishes 2nd in the BnF behind Baker or someone and Richmond finish 14th - I can't wait to read the hype men doing their thing.
 
Mr Meow said:
Nope.

5 good seasons? 4x AA and 4x VFL team of the year (with another year at that level) says otherwise. He was picked in his favoured position (5 years as a HFF, 3 years as a FF) each time. It was a good but never outstanding Geelong side that made 4 grand finals, none of which would have occurred if GAS did not play for Geelong. So you were half right - they relied on GAS too heavily and he still almost singlehandedly snatched a flag in 1989. There aren't bonus points for Dustin winning flags in sides with excellent defences against okay sides, and GAS failing to with a non-existent defence against some scarily good premiers.

GAS was a poor trainer and abrasive character on the field - it's well acknowledged that his BnF and Brownlow voting were well below expected compared to his more well behaved peers. Over 1000 goals from 248 games - less than 100 as a genuine full forward - spoke to his greatness though.

We've already gone through all this though. Might be time to give the thread a rest and hope Martin brings his best form earlier next season. If he finishes 2nd in the BnF behind Baker or someone and Richmond finish 14th - I can't wait to read the hype men doing their thing.
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You are too quick to jump into a reply without even reading. You said Martin’s B&F results were to be queried as ‘they have only had 4 x good seasons since he debuted’. I replied with the fact Geelong only had ‘5 good seasons’ across GAS’s career, so his 1 x B&F needed to be queried also.

You then jumped into a diatribe with a bunch of stuff I hadn’t even mentioned.


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Martin wins 2 x B&F and finishes in the top-3 9 times, for a team that has made finals 8 times and won 3 flags in his career - but his B&F credentials are a bit weak apparently . WTAF?

P’s… he was no chance of top-3 in 2021 or 2022 when he missed 6+ games each season. 9 out of 12 ain’t bad …..


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Noidnadroj said:
Martin wins 2 x B&F and finishes in the top-3 9 times, for a team that has made finals 8 times and won 3 flags in his career - but his B&F credentials are a bit weak apparently . WTAF?

P’s… he was no chance of top-3 in 2021 or 2022 when he missed 6+ games each season. 9 out of 12 ain’t bad …..


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Click to expand...
How many top 6 in the coaches votes? Twice? Dried up after the 2016/17 1-2.

3x winner, 1 runner up, 3rd, 5th x2 and 6th for another player of the modern era. 6 BnF victories, nevermind podiums. 8x AA.

1st, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 7th not a bad haul for another. 4 BnF victories, not podiums. 8x AA.

Dusty has those legendary top 3 BnF sequences, nevermind only winning twice, to make up for it. And a huge 4x AA.
 
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Mr Meow said:
How many top 6 in the coaches votes? Twice? Dried up after the 2016/17 1-2.

3x winner, 1 runner up, 3rd, 5th x2 and 6th for another player of the modern era. 6 BnF victories, nevermind podiums. 8x AA.

1st, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 7th not a bad haul for another. 4 BnF victories, not podiums. 8x AA.

Dusty has those legendary top 3 BnF sequences, nevermind only winning twice, to make up for it. And a huge 4x AA.
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GAJ’s the best home and away player I’ve seen and has the accolades to prove it, and from 2007-10 an excellent finals player. Martin’s the best finals player I’ve seen and has the accolades to prove it, and from 2010 to 2023 an excellent H&A player.


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Noidnadroj said:
GAJ’s the best home and away player I’ve seen and has the accolades to prove it, and from 2007-10 an excellent finals player. Martin’s the best finals player I’ve seen and has the accolades to prove it, and from 2010 to 2023 an excellent H&A player.


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Click to expand...
Finals

Early years

50 disposals, 4 goals, 2 goal assists, 11 clearances, 14 tackles and 14 inside 50s in the 2004 finals series - as a kid - was pretty solid effort too. He was one of the best in the semi final win especially. 69 disposals and 13 inside 50s, but just 6 clearances, 1 goal and 2 goal assists for Martin's first 3 finals as a 22-24 year old. Advantage: Ablett.

2005: one excellent final (19 disposals, 3 goals, 8 inside 50s) and one poor final so around Martin 2018. Martin was more in his prime though so the prelim failure stings. Advantage: Ablett.

Peak years

17, 19 and 20 Martin was outstanding, the best finals player from that period. The same could be said of Ablett 2007-2010 - who was better during finals over that 4 year period? Certainly Geelong's best finals performer over two premierships, another grand final and a prelim. It was the same Ablett as the H&A performer. Still, advantage Martin for the Norm Smith's.

Senior years

22 Martin sucked and 19/20 old man Ablett was disappointing, but still managed 3 goals and 3 assists. A couple of decent finals means: advantage Ablett.

2:1 Ablett

Home and away

Early years

Ablett was quite underrated 2004-2006 even if he hadn't unlocked his full potential. The first year coaches votes were published in 2006 he managed 49 votes (more than Martin 2023) and the previous two years were pretty close statistically. 2002 and 2003 were a little lean though and young Martin hit greater heights: advantage Martin.

Peak years

Not even close: advantage Ablett

Senior years

Both had injury interrupted seasons following finish of peak years, both more than handy when out on the park. Ablett kept it going till the ripe old age of 36, with his 2018-2020 a trio of great veteran seasons (two around 50 coaches votes each, as a 34/35 year old). Martin fought back to deliver a good 2023. Can he maintain the rage for a few more years at a similar level? We'll see, but for now: advantage Ablett

2:1 Ablett

Overall: 4-2 Ablett

Very, very respectable to be scoring 2 points against the champ - the one Martin himself refers to as the GOAT.
 
Mr Meow said:
Finals

Early years

50 disposals, 4 goals, 2 goal assists, 11 clearances, 14 tackles and 14 inside 50s in the 2004 finals series - as a kid - was pretty solid effort too. He was one of the best in the semi final win especially. 69 disposals and 13 inside 50s, but just 6 clearances, 1 goal and 2 goal assists for Martin's first 3 finals as a 22-24 year old. Advantage: Ablett.

2005: one excellent final (19 disposals, 3 goals, 8 inside 50s) and one poor final so around Martin 2018. Martin was more in his prime though so the prelim failure stings. Advantage: Ablett.

Peak years

17, 19 and 20 Martin was outstanding, the best finals player from that period. The same could be said of Ablett 2007-2010 - who was better during finals over that 4 year period? Certainly Geelong's best finals performer over two premierships, another grand final and a prelim. It was the same Ablett as the H&A performer. Still, advantage Martin for the Norm Smith's.

Senior years

22 Martin sucked and 19/20 old man Ablett was disappointing, but still managed 3 goals and 3 assists. A couple of decent finals means: advantage Ablett.

2:1 Ablett

Home and away

Early years

Ablett was quite underrated 2004-2006 even if he hadn't unlocked his full potential. The first year coaches votes were published in 2006 he managed 49 votes (more than Martin 2023) and the previous two years were pretty close statistically. 2002 and 2003 were a little lean though and young Martin hit greater heights: advantage Martin.

Peak years

Not even close: advantage Ablett

Senior years

Both had injury interrupted seasons following finish of peak years, both more than handy when out on the park. Ablett kept it going till the ripe old age of 36, with his 2018-2020 a trio of great veteran seasons (two around 50 coaches votes each, as a 34/35 year old). Martin fought back to deliver a good 2023. Can he maintain the rage for a few more years at a similar level? We'll see, but for now: advantage Ablett

2:1 Ablett

Overall: 4-2 Ablett

Very, very respectable to be scoring 2 points against the champ - the one Martin himself refers to as the GOAT.
Click to expand...

Martin played the 2018 PF injured as we all know … but let’s pretend he was actually fit.

He also played the 2022 final after 10-weeks out with a hamstring injury … so he hadn’t played or even trained properly for 10-weeks… but let’s pretend he was fit and raring to go.

Martin has a finals resume Ablett doesn’t get close to. Ablett 4 x GF for zero BOG. Martin 3 from 3. Martin dominated three finals series as clearly his team’s best player, culminating in 3 x flags. Nobody else has come close to this in the AFL era, so it’s not like Ablett suffers in comparison to others at finals time … just in comparison to one player.


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For those who’ve perhaps got the impression Martin only went into ‘beast’ mode in finals, here a summary of some data.

In all of 2017, 2019 and 2020 Richmond had to win almost all H&A games in the back half of each season to make top-4, finishing 3rd on the ladder in each flag season.

In the last 27 x H&A wins of 17/19/20, Martin received 51 x Brownlow votes at an average of 1.89 votes per game.

To put that into perspective Naicos’s 28 votes in 2023 came in 16 wins. Average votes per game was 1.75.

In the last 36 x wins including finals across 2017/19/20, Martin scored 242 coaches votes from a possible 360 at an average of 6.72 per game.

To put that into perspective, Naicos was involved in 18 wins in 2023 and got 101 x coaches votes at 5.61 per game. (Single season of dominant player in the top team).

The top-3 coaches votes in 2017/19/20 in those 36 x wins for Richmond:

Martin 242 (36 games)
Prestia 69 (25 games)
Cotchin 62 (31 games)

So the sustained brilliance across 3 x separate Premiership years with top-4 on the line and flags for the taking is way beyond anything anyone else has been able to execute…. and it’s not a handful of finals or a few BOG’s …. it was sustained across 3 x seasons and 36 wins with almost every game having a flag dependent on getting a victory.

In 9 x finals wins he got 72 coaches votes at 8 per game.

Of course the cherry on top was 3 x Ayres awards and 3 x Norm Smiths. But don’t be fooled into thinking it was just the 9 x finals wins where Martin was in beast mode. It was across 36 wins in 3 separate seasons, where he played at a level beyond anyone I’ve ever seen.


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Another thread inspired a little more research, which was enlightening to say the least.

Martin has only been selected in the AA team 4 times, and he has 4 other squad selections. So i began wondering if he was perhaps unlucky to be overlooked in one or more of those seasons …. these were 2014, 2015, 2019 and 2023.

Across those 4 x seasons he was 3rd, 2nd, 6th and 2nd in the B&F. Tigers made finals three times.

Across those 4 x seasons comprising 88 games, he averaged 25.34 disposals and 1.23 goals per game. To provide perspective, let’s compare Martin’s 4 x seasons to Conor Rozee’s last 2 x AA years:

Martin v Rozee

Disposals: 25.34 v 24.55
Goals: 1.23 v 0.83
GA’s: 0.76 v 0.60
Clearances: 3.26 v 3.23
SI’s: 7.13 v 6.49
CP’s: 9.33 v 8.34
B’low votes: 0.78 v 0.80
Coaches : 2.77 v 3.74

So it’s fair to say overall Martin maintained a standard over Rozee’s last 2 x years for a 4-year period when looking at scoreboard impact where he was clearly superior.

Then it was really interesting to see how ‘hard’ averaging 25+ and 1.2+ was, which is what Martin maintained over a 4-year period.

It doesn’t appear a single player (that wasn’t Martin) in 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022 or 2023 averaged 25+ and 1.2+ in any of those single seasons, let alone averaging it across 4-seasons… just a freak. And those were Martin’s ‘non’ AA years. The last player to do 25+ / 1.2+ was Danger in 2017.

Much tougher school for Martin than any other player.

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Noidnadroj said:
Another thread inspired a little more research, which was enlightening to say the least.

Martin has only been selected in the AA team 4 times, and he has 4 other squad selections. So i began wondering if he was perhaps unlucky to be overlooked in one or more of those seasons …. these were 2014, 2015, 2019 and 2023.

Across those 4 x seasons he was 3rd, 2nd, 6th and 2nd in the B&F. Tigers made finals three times.

Across those 4 x seasons comprising 88 games, he averaged 25.34 disposals and 1.23 goals per game. To provide perspective, let’s compare Martin’s 4 x seasons to Conor Rozee’s last 2 x AA years:

Martin v Rozee

Disposals: 25.34 v 24.55
Goals: 1.23 v 0.83
GA’s: 0.76 v 0.60
Clearances: 3.26 v 3.23
SI’s: 7.13 v 6.49
CP’s: 9.33 v 8.34
B’low votes: 0.78 v 0.80
Coaches : 2.77 v 3.74

So it’s fair to say overall Martin maintained a standard over Rozee’s last 2 x years for a 4-year period when looking at scoreboard impact where he was clearly superior.

Then it was really interesting to see how ‘hard’ averaging 25+ and 1.2+ was, which is what Martin maintained over a 4-year period.

Not a single player in 2021, 2022 or 2023 averaged 25+ and 1.2+ in any of those single seasons, let alone doing it across 4-seasons… and those were Martin’s ‘non’ AA team years.

Much tougher school for Martin than any other player.


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Oh you only just now pondered whether he's been unlucky? You haven't been ranting about this and other "Martin is underrated because of..." topics every day for the past year or more?

Unfortunately AA does go beyond a simple possession and goal combo average at an arbitrary cut off point. Martin has always racked up plenty of ball and had a license to go forward and attack, it doesn't make his 2014 season better than Selwood's (1 goal per game).

Coaches didn't agree in the slightest on the Rozee/Martin like-for-like.

Rozee

2022: 88 votes (5th)
2023: 88 votes (7th)

Martin

2014: 45 votes (not top 20)
2015: 61 votes (equal 12th with Gray)
2019: 71 votes (equal 11th with Cunnington)
2023: 49 votes (17 of them in dead rubbers, not top 20)

Bolded is where he could be considered. Perhaps instead of Darling, by moving Walters to a forward pocket. Equal 11th in the coaches votes as a midfielder is borderline. Noah Anderson was 12th this season and Neale missed out in 5th - for reference points. The other years you're being extremely one eyed, backed up by any neutral you would ask.
 
Mr Meow said:
Oh you only just now pondered whether he's been unlucky? You haven't been ranting about this and other "Martin is underrated because of..." topics every day for the past year or more?

Unfortunately AA does go beyond a simple possession and goal combo average at an arbitrary cut off point. Martin has always racked up plenty of ball and had a license to go forward and attack, it doesn't make his 2014 season better than Selwood's (1 goal per game).

Coaches didn't agree in the slightest on the Rozee/Martin like-for-like.

Rozee

2022: 88 votes (5th)
2023: 88 votes (7th)

Martin

2014: 45 votes (not top 20)
2015: 61 votes (equal 12th with Gray)
2019: 71 votes (equal 11th with Cunnington)
2023: 49 votes (17 of them in dead rubbers, not top 20)

Bolded is where he could be considered. Perhaps instead of Darling, by moving Walters to a forward pocket. Equal 11th in the coaches votes as a midfielder is borderline. Noah Anderson was 12th this season and Neale missed out in 5th - for reference points. The other years you're being extremely one eyed, backed up by any neutral you would ask.
Click to expand...

He averaged 25+ and 1.2+ across his 4 non-AA years …no player has done this in a single season since 2017 - that’s freakish given they are his ‘non’ AA years. As I said, it’s a tougher school for Martin. Rozee gets less ball, less clearances, far less goals, far less SI’s and he’s an AA ‘lock’. That’s ok, for some reason Martin has played to higher expectations to AA selectors and coaches.

2019 he was a bad AA oversight - about as bad as I’ve ever seen. But I’m not even saying he was ‘robbed’ the other seasons … could’ve been in and nobody would’ve raised an eyebrow.

Just saying his years outside his supposed ‘only’ peak seasons are uber elite. Unless of course 25+ / 1.2+ isn’t uber elite ….the fact nobody has done this for 6-years makes it pretty clear it is.


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Noidnadroj said:
He averaged 25+ and 1.2+ across his 4 non-AA years …no player has done this in a single season since 2017 - that’s freakish given they are his ‘non’ AA years. As I said, it’s a tougher school for Martin. Rozee gets less ball, less clearances, far less goals, far less SI’s and he’s an AA ‘lock’. That’s ok, for some reason Martin has played to higher expectations to AA selectors and coaches.

2019 he was a bad AA oversight - about as bad as I’ve ever seen. But I’m not even saying he was ‘robbed’ the other seasons … could’ve been in and nobody would’ve raised an eyebrow.

Just saying his years outside his supposed ‘only’ peak seasons are uber elite. Unless of course 25+ / 1.2+ isn’t uber elite ….the fact nobody has done this for 6-years makes it pretty clear it is.


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Click to expand...
We have very few genuine forward/mid hybrids. Sure it's a credit to Martin that he plays that role - if it's very unique it means very few players could do it well. His goal numbers will always be higher than most mids for that reason, unless you are dealing with freaks (Ablett as a pure mid at his peak).

2019 he needed a couple more strong games to be 80+ coaches votes and then he would've made himself a lock. Equal 6th in the Brownlow could be considered stiff to miss out on AA. But it's not as stiff as Neale missing it as the Brownlow winner. It's more like Viney missing out from 7th in the Brownlow this year.

Why did Rozee get so many more coaches votes in the two seasons you compared with the 4 Martin missed out on? Based on your analysis of goals/disposals they were the exact same player? Perhaps it's a lot more nuanced than that, or else the coaches would simply see who had 20+ disposals and 1+ goal and start their votes from there.
 

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Opinion Can Dustin Martin be the GOAT? (Answer: no)

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